Investing or pulling out of US stock market

[brianp0803]

In anticipating the outcome of the presidential elections, are people generally pulling out of the market for safety or putting money into the market in hopes that the stock market will go up after the election for you. 
 

I am pulling my money out in a anticipation of the election results. I’m expecting at least a 10 to 15% drop in the months following the election.

 

 

opinions?

[billaaa777]

Wrong, Biden is now expected to win, and it is already priced in.

[brianp0803]

I guess then it’s too late to pull out of stocks and change to cash. 
But I think the stimulus packages have raised it a little bit and talk of vaccine but I want to get out before the election is confirmed.  It is likely Biden will win

[yogavnture]

trump will win and the markets will go up.  get out now and you lose

[EVENKEEL]

If stock market was easily predictable we'd have many more wealthy folks. 

 

[sezze]

For me , i think markets will go down big time . This is not because of US elections , but because all the rest which will show up . So far , only small businesses been hit by C19 . But it goes way deeper , and it is far from finished . Big companies , going to be hit also , and this is not counted in the price , and soon ( already started in a few countries , including Thailand ) people uprising will start , and it will have a effect on industry . Together with massive debts by countries , growing left-right politic behaviour , i can only see 1 outcome and it was a outcome which i did think about in 2008 crisis .

[brianp0803]

If the market has already adjusted on the assumption that Biden will win, then if Trump wins we will probably see a big bump. But as mentioned earlier, the trillions of dollars we have spent on bail outs it’s got to have an impact on the economy. But frequently the economy looks at future trends and doesn’t look in the past. If a vaccine is developed, and no terrible side effects from it, and tourism returns, then we should see growth again

[AlexRRR]

On 10/21/2020 at 12:42 AM, andy said:

Normally I stick a good amount in (mixed portfolio of which around 55% is US stock index funds) around this time of every month.

 

This month I'll likely wait until after Nov 3 and buy the dip a little later.  Good chance of a short term plunge with no stimulus deal, election outcome uncertainty & possible related violence after a Biden win.  I have a good chunk invested in international stock too, so will be interesting to see what happens with that short term. 

 

Won't be pulling any out until retirement.  Playing the long game.

 

Your a nervous investor there for not a good one....stick your money in the bank in that case..

[yankee99]

If you think biden is going to win you may want to sell based on taxes. If you're a long term investor with no plans to sell might as well stay put

[chicowoodduck]

On 10/19/2020 at 11:01 PM, yogavnture said:

trump will win and the markets will go up.  get out now and you lose

Good Lord, sober up!  And get off of your meds! ????????????

 

You must be the guy who tells everyone to invest in Bitcoin as well?

 

 

[Oldie]

There is no reason to pull out of the market. With the correct instruments you can win if the stocks rise or fall. Just use puts for instance if you think the market will go down. 

[MadMuhammad]

It depends on your strategy. I’m in long term and historically it pays to stay in rather than attempt to ‘pick the bottom’ or react short term.
I’m staying in no matter what happens. I’m well diversified and the stocks I’m invested in are strong companies with future need in this covid changed world or have strong debt to earnings balances. I doubt we’ll see a pullback anywhere near 10% short to mid term after November 3

[Jeffr2]

Wall Street is forecasting a Biden win, and saying it will end up being better for the market.  Especially if the Dems also win the senate.  Less bickering, more getting things done.

[BTB1977]

If Biden wins I would pull out. Luckily that won't be the case. 

[Artben]

If you purchase good quality stocks in well run companies you will do well no matter who wins.  Warren Buffett and I have been doing it successfully for years.  If you want to try and time the market, good luck.  Stock prices only matter if you have to sell.

[Brunolem]

On 10/19/2020 at 10:42 PM, brianp0803 said:

I guess then it’s too late to pull out of stocks and change to cash. 
But I think the stimulus packages have raised it a little bit and talk of vaccine but I want to get out before the election is confirmed.  It is likely Biden will win

These days the stock market doesn't move according to economic fundamentals, or companies' performances, but simply goes up with inflation.

 

(Inflation = money creation, not consumer prices)

 

Whoever wins the election, you can bet that a lot of money creation (QE) is in store, because the rescue packages will need to be financed, to the tune of 2 trillion dollars, or more...and a great deal of this money will end up in the financial markets, one way or another.

 

Add to that all the promises, green new deal, infrastructure, you name it, and you get an orgy of money creation in the coming months and years.

 

Finally, the Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes, including buying stocks or even landfills, to avoid a market meltdown.

 

So, there might be a correction around November, but it won't last...unless of course the US goes into civil war after a Trump win...

[fabruer]

On 10/19/2020 at 5:50 PM, brianp0803 said:

In anticipating the outcome of the presidential elections, are people generally pulling out of the market for safety or putting money into the market in hopes that the stock market will go up after the election for you. 
 

I am pulling my money out in a anticipation of the election results. I’m expecting at least a 10 to 15% drop in the months following the election.

 

 

opinions?

 

Based on your question I assume you are a private retail investor, pretty much same like me and millions of others. This is not an insult but would you know how Wall Street refers to us in general? Dumb money. As compared to: smart money, which are institutionalised and professional investors.

Now, the average long term compound annual growth rate for private retail investors is about 2.3%. Yes, that's pretty bad. But how come? There is consensus this underperformance is based to a very high degree on market timing and market picking.

 

My 2 cent: 1) buy only shares of high quality companies with strong balance sheet, 2) buy when the price of that companies shares is cheap in relativ terms to its underlying fundamentals, 3) hold onto that share unless something in your investment case for this companies shares change dramatically

 

I am not moving out of any of the 50 positions I hold. In case of high volatility (for whatever reason) I am adding on selected positions.

[DFPhuket]

Stocks will go up and stocks will go down, but assuming you're in it for the long haul the day to day, month to month, and even year to year change doesn't really matter.

 

Buy and hold some low cost Index funds (i.e., Vanguard) and ignore the day to day noise. Since the 1920s, the S&P 500 index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10%. In the past 25 years the Dow index had an average annual return of 7 percent.

[Dustdevil]

On 10/19/2020 at 4:50 AM, brianp0803 said:

In anticipating the outcome of the presidential elections, are people generally pulling out of the market for safety or putting money into the market in hopes that the stock market will go up after the election for you. 
 

I am pulling my money out in a anticipation of the election results. I’m expecting at least a 10 to 15% drop in the months following the election.

 

 

opinions?

Never try to time US markets. You'll lost half your shirt. Dollar-cost average (i.e., invest a fixed mount every month to a selection of diversified mutual funds or ETFs)  and in 3 or 4 years you'll be a happy camper. 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Dustdevil

[Dustdevil]

44 minutes ago, DFPhuket said:

Stocks will go up and stocks will go down, but assuming you're in it for the long haul the day to day, month to month, and even year to year change doesn't really matter.

 

Buy and hold some low cost Index funds (i.e., Vanguard) and ignore the day to day noise. Since the 1920s, the S&P 500 index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10%. In the past 25 years the Dow index had an average annual return of 7 percent.

Precisely. Without having read anyone else's posts beforehand, my reply mirrors  yours.

[Dustdevil]

2 minutes ago, Dustdevil said:

error

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Dustdevil

[mr336]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

So, there might be a correction around November, but it won't last...unless of course the US goes into civil war after a Trump win...

It's gonna hit the fan like we've never seen after his second term victory. 11 days out and the markets steady. 

[allanos]

Share prices have run far ahead of their fundamentals due to stimulus packages causing overheating.  Even so, only a handful have prompted the indices to rise: think Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook, Tesla, and a couple of others.  In general, the rest are not performing, which does not bode well.

 

So, in my opinion, as to whether the markets continue to rise or not, will depend on whether there is another stimulus package, and its size. Pelosi is playing politics with this at the moment.

 

Whatever the election outcome, or a vaccine development, the long-term trend is always up.  The answer then, is time in the market, not timing the market, which is a bit of a mug's game. 

 

The effect of so much stimulus is likely to be high, or hyper-inflation. The value of the dollar, its purchasing power, is likely to be severely eroded over the next 5-10 years.  Buy stocks which will be a hedge against this deleterious effect.

[fabruer]

6 minutes ago, Dustdevil said:

Never try to time US markets. You'll lost half your shirt. Dollar-cost average (i.e., invest a fixed mount every month to a selection of diversified mutual funds or ETFs)  and in 3 or 4 years you'll be a happy camper. 

 

Second that and would like to add: never try to time any equity or debt market. It's a proven strategy for low & underperforming returns.

 

Can recommend to stay with ETFs instead of mutual funds as second are 1) more expensive and 2) don't necessarily expose you to more return despite higher risk.

 

One could achieve a balanced portfolio following modern portfolio management theory with about 5 ETFs covering a broad spectrum of markets and instruments. The advantage of such a portfolio would be that in times of draw down there is less volatility in your account. Hence, you won't be tempted to sell when prices are low. Flip side of the coin, when markets ralley, your account won't fly as high. It's still gonna be nicely green and imho that's worth a lot.

 

Look at 10 years and more investment horizon when thinking about buying equity. Markets can underperform for a significant time. While I don't believe this will be the most likely scenario going forward from where we are right now, one might end up with 0% capital gains on the day in 15 years time. Leading analysts have upped the likelyhood of long term sideways moving markets over the last couple of months. That's where dividends earn it's place in your portfolio.

[Ireland32]

On 10/19/2020 at 11:01 PM, yogavnture said:

trump will win and the markets will go up.  get out now and you lose

Ridiculous 

[Ireland32]

5 minutes ago, allanos said:

Share prices have run far ahead of their fundamentals due to stimulus packages causing overheating.  Even so, only a handful have prompted the indices to rise: think Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook, Tesla, and a couple of others.  In general, the rest are not performing, which does not bode well.

 

So, in my opinion, as to whether the markets continue to rise or not, will depend on whether there is another stimulus package, and its size. Pelosi is playing politics with this at the moment.

 

Whatever the election outcome, or a vaccine development, the long-term trend is always up.  The answer then, is time in the market, not timing the market, which is a bit of a mug's game. 

 

The effect of so much stimulus is likely to be high, or hyper-inflation. The value of the dollar, its purchasing power, is likely to be severely eroded over the next 5-10 years.  Buy stocks which will be a hedge against this deleterious effect.

Traitor Mc Connell is playing God 

[roxnadz]

3 hours ago, chicowoodduck said:

Good Lord, sober up!  And get off of your meds! ????????????

 

You must be the guy who tells everyone to invest in Bitcoin as well?

 

 

Hey, you doubled your fun if you jumped in during this spring’s crash. I’m kicking myself waiting for it to drop to $27 a coin.

 

Hell, it’s all manipulated anyway.

[Oldie]

1 hour ago, DFPhuket said:

Stocks will go up and stocks will go down, but assuming you're in it for the long haul the day to day, month to month, and even year to year change doesn't really matter.

 

Buy and hold some low cost Index funds (i.e., Vanguard) and ignore the day to day noise. Since the 1920s, the S&P 500 index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10%. In the past 25 years the Dow index had an average annual return of 7 percent.

This all sounds good. In the long run the market will go up. But sadly in the long run we all will be dead... ????

 

If you really want to trade you don't wait that the market will go up in the long run. I traded for very many years with options. Stocks were too boring for me. With options the only important thing is that the market moves. The direction is not important. And the more movement you have the better. 

[karunasup]

MY 2 cents:

Unless you are a day/short term trader (which itself is high risk approach), tech stocks (and few selected sectors) are anticipated to keep going up in prices....supported by FED easy monetary policies and stimulus from the govt.  So, over the next few years, financial assets are expected to do well. However, as a contrarian investor, I believe that gold and silver (plus their miners) will outperform the stock market, even the NASDAQ, in terms of purchasing value. The US$ is being debased - deliberately by the FED & Treasury - seems to be a widely held view today. I have also invested a small % of my assets in BTC - which is  getting more and more acceptance from Wall St, and now even public companies like Microstrategy ($375 mill) Square (run by same CEO as for TWITTER) have investeda small % of the company's cash to buy BTC. BTC represents an asymmetrical bet.

In brief, I believe the financial elites, central banks and govt will continue to manipulate the system for their own benefit and control - even at the risk of chaos and severe conflicts.  

[allanos]

I have also invested a small % of my assets in BTC - which is  getting more and more acceptance from Wall St

 

The bigger BTC news is the announcement 2 days ago from PayPal that it is about to accept payments to sellers in Bitcoin, allow account withdrawals in BTC, and allow hodling in BTC. 

 

PayPal has 376 million members and 22 million sellers on its books. This announcement is HUGE.

 

Bitcoin is increasingly going mainstream.  Michael Saylor's purchases of Bitcoin, totalling $ 400mn, have opened the eyes of Wall Street and others.  As head of a listed company, is reasoning is clear and very sound. A listed UK company has just committed 10% of its treasury to Bitcoin and other crypto's.

 

The smart money is about to start flooding in to BTC. With a finite supply, as opposed to gold, for example, there is only one long-term direction for the pre-eminent crypto.

 

Any portfolio worthy of the name should include stocks, bonds, etf's, gold, silver, and Bitcoin. In the long term, however, Bitcoin will outperform the rest, which it has done over the past 10 years.