Irish PM says on Brexit: Biden wants a deal so Johnson should knuckle down

[Hi from France]

I feel the UK is ruled by people just like you.

 

Your perception is limited to your own daily life, the rest you just don't care about, you are unwilling / unable to use expertise and repeating slogans like "take back control" as the UK has precisely... lost control.

 

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However, the importance of this analysis seems to have passed the Brexiters by. And the unfortunate thing for this country is that its government is in the grip of fanatical Brexiters, impervious to the weight of economic analysis: before we started on leaving the single market and customs union, output in this economy was already running some 20% below what might have been expected if pre-austerity trends had continued. The hit to our economy from leaving the single market is some 4% – a calculation taken from the average of a number of authoritative studies – and half as much again if we leave without a deal.

 

The evidence is mounting of impending chaos at the docks, disruption to supply lines and shortages of goodness knows what essential goods. The fact is that it has not got across to the evangelical dunderheads in the cabinet that the British economy is, in effect, a region of the wider European economy that resulted from the championship of the single market by their heroine, Margaret Thatcher.

 

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I fear I could not help laughing when I learned from the Financial Times that No 10 has set up a unit to attract foreign investment. It was our membership of the single market that was the great attraction for the Japanese investment that did so much for the British economy and jobs from the 1980s onwards.

 

The Office for National Statistics calculates that foreign-owned businesses accounted for more than half our exports between 2016 and 2018. But overseas investment, according to a London University study, is due to fall by a third after we leave the single market and customs union.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/15/if-only-there-were-a-vaccine-protect-britain-from-brexit?CMP=

[473geo]

1 hour ago, Hi from France said:

I feel the UK is ruled by people just like you.

 

Your perception is limited to your own daily life, the rest you just don't care about, you are unwilling / unable to use expertise and repeating slogans like "take back control" as the UK has precisely... lost control.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/15/if-only-there-were-a-vaccine-protect-britain-from-brexit?CMP=

Unfortunately forums are full of people like you who only read responses to their posts, I don't need slogans, I don't need people to tell me life in the UK is on the decline when it is not, I do not need the EU blaming the UK when clearly there are issues which the EU is not capable of solving, namely making a trade deal with the UK when members of the EU might be expected to increase contributions or loose benefits!! Due to the UK departure, understandable, but lets not hide this important fact.

How many times, Brexit is decided, people in the UK are not against a trade deal beneficial to both parties, working together, I am becoming increasingly doubtful the EU has the capability to achieve a trade deal.

Time will tell,  no end of projection, economic reasoning and procrastination will budge a big problem within the EU. Yes caused by the UK departure but not an issue the UK can resolve!!

So throw all the figures calculations projections wifi comments into the mix add the Irish, and good old Joe, all you like, the bottom line is are the EU capable of making a suitable trade deal with the UK who has now left. yes or no? Perhaps that is just too bloody simple for the 'experts' who feel the need to ruminate over every option and possibility!!

 

What will it matter how the UK respond if France veto the deal because they are not happy with their fisheries allocation - you see the problem!!  The EU has no solution other than to try and force the UK to agree to all their demands, is that realistic? Is that negotiation? No, the inflexibility of the EU is the problem not the UK.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by 473geo

[Hi from France]

Well, British exceptionalism has reached the end of the road

 

The UK is 1/6 of the economic weight of the UE, it cannot demand to sell its products and services anything into the EU market without fully respecting EU rules. And that includes a level playing field, among other things... 

 

You can't always get what you want. 

[Hi from France]

Well, British exceptionalism has reached the end of the road

 

The UK is 1/6 of the economic weight of the UE, it cannot demand to sell its products and services in the EU market without fully respecting EU rules. And that includes a level playing field, among other things... 

 

You can't always get what you want.. 

 

. 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Hi from France

[Hi from France]

Oh and another precondition, when the UK signs a treaty bearing the great seal of the Realm, it must remain true to this treaty. 

[473geo]

Well I guess on a level playing field that would work both ways. But any sensible person would conclude that is the wish of neither of the negotiation teams. However it may well be the EU for all it's bluster and indignation is powerless to prevent it

[Hi from France]

There is not much bluster in the EU, actually my feeling is that no one here cares so much about Brexit. Governments and citizens are both bored and now busy with Covid-19. I need to resort to the (often excellent) British press to get informations. 

 

It is good the EU had a not notch negotiating team, though on the UK side it got from indecisive, to inefficient to chaotic... with neither of the successive UK teams achieving much, in my opinion. 

 

Hence even in the best case scenario this week, the deal now will be crappy and cause plenty of red tape and a continued loss of foreign investment.

 

No-deal is still an unknown, but I'd guess in this case the big players will have a field day changing the rules at will.

 

Brexit 20 years ago, why not, but today it is utterly stupid.

 

The age of globalization is largely over, now: there is no place for a smaller isolated economy.

 

Wrong timing, disastrous implementation... 

 

. 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Hi from France

[Hi from France]

2 hours ago, 473geo said:

Well I guess on a level playing field that would work both ways. 

I see what you mean, but in this level playing field, the EU sets most of the rules. 

 

The good news is there are rules, IF there is a deal.

 

Absent a deal, the big players : USA, EU China will impose their conditions as we go.

..Doing what is best for them, each time on each sector and the UK will be Lebanized. 

 

. 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Hi from France

[Chomper Higgot]

9 hours ago, 473geo said:

 

Government stimulus and support, create jobs, subsidise automation to cut labour costs, there are possibilities, maybe one has to be a bit of a narcissist to work it out  

 

I’m not sure what the reference to ‘narcissist’ is but you clearly didn’t think through the fact automation is rapidly replacing people’s jobs.

 

I also take it that ‘Government stimulus and support’ is limited to warm words of encouragement and not financial backing, which would be in breach of WTO and any other agreements the U.K. wishes to trade under.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, Hi from France said:

Oh and another precondition, when the UK signs a treaty bearing the great seal of the Realm, it must remain true to this treaty. 

Well yes it should, but the current U.K. PM thinks breaking international treaties, even those he himself signed, is something he can do without consequences.

[473geo]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

I’m not sure what the reference to ‘narcissist’ is but you clearly didn’t think through the fact automation is rapidly replacing people’s jobs.

 

I also take it that ‘Government stimulus and support’ is limited to warm words of encouragement and not financial backing, which would be in breach of WTO and any other agreements the U.K. wishes to trade under.

Could you explain how automated manufacturing will replace jobs that do not currently exist, and how assistance with set up costs breach WTO rules ?

[473geo]

3 hours ago, Hi from France said:

I see what you mean, but in this level playing field, the EU sets most of the rules. 

 

The good news is there are rules, IF there is a deal.

 

Absent a deal, the big players : USA, EU China will impose their conditions as we go.

..Doing what is best for them, each time on each sector and the UK will be Lebanized. 

 

. 

Sure and while the UK will 'forced' to abide by WTO guidelines other countries will take attempt to take advantage ah Ok

[Chomper Higgot]

24 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Could you explain how automated manufacturing will replace jobs that do not currently exist, and how assistance with set up costs breach WTO rules ?

Fact - Automation is replacing workers across all sectors of industry.

 

Explain how industries that don’t employ people help the economy?

 

wrt subsidies, you’ve already expressed your disbelief in anything that you can’t see for yourself without any intermediary - so I’ll direct you to the WTO

 

https://www.trade.gov/trade-guide-wto-subsidies

[473geo]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Fact - Automation is replacing workers across all sectors of industry.

 

Explain how industries that don’t employ people help the economy?

 

wrt subsidies, you’ve already expressed your disbelief in anything that you can’t see for yourself without any intermediary - so I’ll direct you to the WTO

 

https://www.trade.gov/trade-guide-wto-subsidies

Automation requires controllers, goods also require delivery to local markets, logistics if travelling overseas, for example - where a business did not previously exist this is additional employment

I don't need a guide to the WTO thanks I have already experienced moving companies to countries where 'preferential' introductory 'rates' were offered

 

 

[Hi from France]

7 hours ago, 473geo said:

Sure and while the UK will 'forced' to abide by WTO guidelines other countries will take attempt to take advantage ah Ok

WTO treaty rules are inoperative, as there is no means to enforce them anymore

 

You know the WTO's Appellate Body has been paralyzed by Trump since December 10, 2019 don't you ?

 

 

[473geo]

17 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

WTO treaty rules are inoperative, as there is no means to enforce them anymore

 

You know the WTO's Appellate Body has been paralyzed by Trump since December 10, 2019 don't you ?

 

 

Funny that, countries looking to 'level the playing field' with import tarrifs

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

9 hours ago, 473geo said:

Automation requires controllers, goods also require delivery to local markets, logistics if travelling overseas, for example - where a business did not previously exist this is additional employment

I don't need a guide to the WTO thanks I have already experienced moving companies to countries where 'preferential' introductory 'rates' were offered

 

 

You clearly have no idea about what automation is doing, for example, logistics and specifically delivery are squarely in the cross hairs of automation.

 

But I spotted your switch, ‘cheap labour overseas to automation’ at home.

 

So either cheap foreign labour gets the jobs or automation does.

 

Oh, and I’m an automation engineer.

 

[473geo]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You clearly have no idea about what automation is doing, for example, logistics and specifically delivery are squarely in the cross hairs of automation.

 

But I spotted your switch, ‘cheap labour overseas to automation’ at home.

 

So either cheap foreign labour gets the jobs or automation does.

 

Oh, and I’m an automation engineer.

 

 

Without automation you would be out of a job - remember I said replace cheap labour abroad with automation at home  to negate the cheap labour costs - new business more employed like you - you don't have to act dim to try and make a point

 

You think bringing business back will affect the automation in progress right now? I never said the current automation plan will cease you just make things up to suit your rhetoric not clever at all

 

[Chomper Higgot]

9 hours ago, 473geo said:

 

Without automation you would be out of a job - remember I said replace cheap labour abroad with automation at home  to negate the cheap labour costs - new business more employed like you - you don't have to act dim to try and make a point

 

You think bringing business back will affect the automation in progress right now? I never said the current automation plan will cease you just make things up to suit your rhetoric not clever at all

 

I’m not arguing against automation, I’m pointing out the flaws in your belief that the U.K. is somehow going to bring manufacturing back to the UK.

 

it’s not going to happen.

[Kwasaki]

12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’m not arguing against automation, I’m pointing out the flaws in your belief that the U.K. is somehow going to bring manufacturing back to the UK.

 

it’s not going to happen.

https://makeitbritish.co.uk/uk-manufacturing-2/british-companies-bring-manufacturing-back-home/

[Chomper Higgot]

27 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

https://makeitbritish.co.uk/uk-manufacturing-2/british-companies-bring-manufacturing-back-home/

If you read the article you linked it provides no statements on any manufacturing having been returned to the U.K.

 

 

[Kwasaki]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

If you read the article you linked it provides no statements on any manufacturing having been returned to the U.K.

They will when brexit & C19 is out the way. 

Until then as always we can agree to disagree. 

[robblok]

Just now, 473geo said:

Covid over, pound falls, tourists pour into the UK to benefit from good exchange rate, who knows Europe might get the spin off,  UK won't begrudge that Rob that's not who we are ????

Who would want to visit the UK ? Been there once the weather is as bad as the Netherlands. I would say the UK is not a great holiday country like Spain or France. 

[473geo]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

Who would want to visit the UK ? Been there once the weather is as bad as the Netherlands. I would say the UK is not a great holiday country like Spain or France. 

They'll come for the fish and chips Rob

[transam]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

Who would want to visit the UK ? Been there once the weather is as bad as the Netherlands. I would say the UK is not a great holiday country like Spain or France. 

You would, and for sure an anti-Brit would think like that....

[robblok]

Just now, 473geo said:

They'll come for the fish and chips Rob

Come on Brit food is as tasty as Dutch food (not tasty at all). France is known for its food the Brits and Dutch are not. 

 

Was surprised to see that there are still 39 million people going there, less then half of that of Spain but still more then expected.

 

I can only say I visited once, prefer Germany over the UK (Food and holiday wise). Prefer Spain and France over Germany. 

[robblok]

1 minute ago, transam said:

You would, and for sure an anti-Brit would think like that....

Has nothing to do with being anti Brit.. your weather sucks like ours. 

[onthedarkside]

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[473geo]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

Come on Brit food is as tasty as Dutch food (not tasty at all). France is known for its food the Brits and Dutch are not. 

 

Was surprised to see that there are still 39 million people going there, less then half of that of Spain but still more then expected.

 

I can only say I visited once, prefer Germany over the UK (Food and holiday wise). Prefer Spain and France over Germany. 

 

You are out of touch with many Eastern alternatives to English food in the UK Rob but yes I don't see many Dutch restaurants, or German for that matter

[robblok]

1 minute ago, 473geo said:

now you have moved to 'short term' thinking Rob, adaptable at least

Not short term, its just not smart neither is it good all the economist say this. They seem to know it better then people on this forum who are still in denial. Then again Trump voters are the same they ignore facts.