US has reported its highest one-day Covid-19 death tally: Over 2,800--CNN

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Quote

 

More than 2,800 Covid-19 deaths were reported Wednesday in the United States -- the most the country has ever reported in a single day -- as health care officials say their staff and facilities are struggling to support burgeoning numbers of patients.
 

The number of Covid-19 patients in US hospitals Wednesday -- 100,226, according to the COVID Tracking Project -- also is the highest reported on a given day during the pandemic.

 

One-day death totals can draw from delayed reports across several days. Still, recently soaring daily rates of infections and hospitalizations has various experts predicting the daily death count could regularly surpass 2,000 or 3,000, and perhaps approach 4,000.

 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/03/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

[TooBigToFit]

Yes. Thailand will be back into the mess soon. It's not just the US, plenty of nations are seeing massive rises in cases. If you don't, just keep away from the hospitals when you become ill.

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, TooBigToFit said:

Yes. Thailand will be back into the mess soon. It's not just the US, plenty of nations are seeing massive rises in cases. If you don't, just keep away from the hospitals when you become ill.

Why will "Thailand will be back into the mess soon." It's avoided "the mess" so far.

[TooBigToFit]

It's the cold season and as you can see a lot of people coming across the border from Myanmar are bringing it in. Myanmar has a lot of problems. Plus there may be other sources spreading it that we don't know of such as animals or just waste water getting into the rivers that divide nations here. China accuses some of its recent problems as coming from imported foods that have been infected with Covid but who knows if that is true or even possible. But we really don't know how it can be spread 100%. As pressure to let more travellers in rises so do the risks from them. As you can see from the daily reported cases most are people caught coming in from other nations. Some people also think Covid is here too surviving on surfaces from its original entrance and minimal spread. Who knows. Winter is here and going to get worse.

[Susco]

Does anyone have accurate numbers of the total deaths in the US for 2019 and 2020?

 

I don't talk about projections or excess death during a certain month, just plain number about total mortalities for both years.

 

I searched a lot on google, but I can't find them

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, TooBigToFit said:

It's the cold season and as you can see a lot of people coming across the border from Myanmar are bringing it in. Myanmar has a lot of problems. Plus there may be other sources spreading it that we don't know of such as animals or just waste water getting into the rivers that divide nations here. China accuses some of its recent problems as coming from imported foods that have been infected with Covid but who knows if that is true or even possible. But we really don't know how it can be spread 100%. As pressure to let more travellers in rises so do the risks from them. As you can see from the daily reported cases most are people caught coming in from other nations. Some people also think Covid is here too surviving on surfaces from its original entrance and minimal spread. Who knows. Winter is here and going to get worse.

As long as Thai people almost unanimously continue to wear masks in public settings the virus will be contained. Maybe a little uptick but not much.

[TooBigToFit]

Thais fear the authorities so when the police come out or soldiers, they usually listen. Plus Thais are fearful in general and I think they'll snap to it when they know the problem is in their area. That's good for Thailand but still the virus is coming and there will be people that have no choice but to work and there will be transmissons. And of course, there aren't enough vaccinations available for everyone so the covid threat will linger on for years.

[mommysboy]

13 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As long as Thai people almost unanimously continue to wear masks in public settings the virus will be contained. Maybe a little uptick but not much.

 

You honestly put that much faith in paper masks? 

 

It's social distancing and lockdowns that work.

[placeholder]

Just now, mommysboy said:

 

You honestly put that much faith in paper masks? 

 

It's social distancing and lockdowns that work.

All kinds of things are made out of paper. From tissue paper to cardboard. I put my faith not in paper but in epidemiologists who overwhelmingly say the paper medical masks commonly worn here work to inhibit those who wear them from spreading the virus. From my personal experience in Thailand, for what it's worth, I don't see people doing much social distancing in supermarkets and other crowded public venues. But I do see virtually all of them wearing either surgical or cloth masks. Apparently the medical type paper masks are in short supply in the USA at least according to Johns Hopkins which asks the public not to buy them for the sake of medical workers.

[NorthernRyland]

40 minutes ago, Susco said:

Does anyone have accurate numbers of the total deaths in the US for 2019 and 2020?

 

I don't talk about projections or excess death during a certain month, just plain number about total mortalities for both years.

 

These are numbers I compiled from CDCs raw data at https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/. It goes back to 2017. I made a website but I didn't put it live yet.

 

From the CDC:

 

Quote

Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm for more information. Data for New York excludes New York City. Data on all deaths excluding COVID-19 exclude deaths with U07.1 as an underlying or multiple cause of death. Death counts were derived from the National Vital Statistics System database that provides the timeliest access to the vital statistics mortality data and may differ slightly from other sources due to differences in completeness, COVID-19 definitions used, data processing, and imputation of missing dates. Weighted estimates may be too high or too low in certain jurisdictions where the timeliness of provisional data has changed in recent weeks relative to prior years. Data for jurisdictions where counts are between 1 and 9 are suppressed.

 

Admins: my data is clearly sourced and data lag is explained so please don't delete my post again if I may ask. ????

 

My data (which includes a monthly average for the previous 3 years)

 

Year	Excess Deaths	Observed Deaths	Expected Deaths
2017	10,410	2,751,037	2,740,627
2018	-10,109	2,839,076	2,849,185
2019	-72,411	2,852,588	2,924,999
2020	279,520	2,856,573	2,577,053

 

Here are the monthly totals:

 

Month	2017	2018	2019	2020	Average	> Average
January	178,744	261,745	233,375	239,339	224,621	106%
February	234,688	240,233	233,196	295,039	236,039	124%
March	228,907	281,512	288,776	240,357	266,398	90%
April	272,643	218,780	220,724	301,696	237,382	127%
May	208,511	207,895	215,243	321,434	210,549	152%
June	205,153	257,024	263,703	232,922	241,960	96%
July	251,689	204,312	208,192	248,405	221,397	112%
August	200,536	202,941	256,987	312,863	220,154	142%
September	256,711	255,207	208,502	230,568	240,140	96%
October	208,982	211,463	214,500	286,363	211,648	135%
November	215,351	217,277	277,982	147,587	236,870	62%
December	289,122	280,687	231,408	0	267,072	0%

 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by NorthernRyland

[Susco]

1 minute ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

These are numbers I compiled from CDCs raw data at https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/. It goes back to 2017. I made a website but I didn't put it live yet.

 

From the CDC:

 

 

Admins: my data is clearly sourced and data lag is explained so please don't delete my post again if I may ask. ????

 

My data (which includes a monthly average for the previous 3 years)

 

Year	Excess Deaths	Observed Deaths	Expected Deaths
2017	10,410	2,751,037	2,740,627
2018	-10,109	2,839,076	2,849,185
2019	-72,411	2,852,588	2,924,999
2020	279,520	2,856,573	2,577,053

 

Here are the monthly totals:

 

Month	2017	2018	2019	2020	Average	> Average
January	178,744	261,745	233,375	239,339	224,621	106%
February	234,688	240,233	233,196	295,039	236,039	124%
March	228,907	281,512	288,776	240,357	266,398	90%
April	272,643	218,780	220,724	301,696	237,382	127%
May	208,511	207,895	215,243	321,434	210,549	152%
June	205,153	257,024	263,703	232,922	241,960	96%
July	251,689	204,312	208,192	248,405	221,397	112%
August	200,536	202,941	256,987	312,863	220,154	142%
September	256,711	255,207	208,502	230,568	240,140	96%
October	208,982	211,463	214,500	286,363	211,648	135%
November	215,351	217,277	277,982	147,587	236,870	62%
December	289,122	280,687	231,408	0	267,072	0%

 

 

 

 

It is just another unofficial guestimate, and that was clearly not what I asked for.

 

Why is the number of expected deaths for 2020 a convenient 350.000 lower than other years? Is that because otherwise there can be no excess deaths?

 

Why is the number of observed deaths not higher than previous years?

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6 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

 

It is just another unofficial guestimate, and that was clearly not what I asked for.

 

Why is the number of expected deaths for 2020 a convenient 350.000 lower than other years? Is that because otherwise there can be no excess deaths?

 

Why is the number of observed deaths not higher than previous years?

Got a plausible link to back your assertion up?

[Susco]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Got a plausible link to back your assertion up?

 

Maybe try to read the post I was replying to.

 

Would this do it for you?

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Susco said:

 

Maybe try to read the post I was replying to.

 

Would this do it for you?

 

I guess I misunderstood. I thought you were challenging the validity of CDC figures. I guess you're challenging the validity NorthernRyland's?

[mommysboy]

47 minutes ago, placeholder said:

All kinds of things are made out of paper. From tissue paper to cardboard. I put my faith not in paper but in epidemiologists who overwhelmingly say the paper medical masks commonly worn here work to inhibit those who wear them from spreading the virus. From my personal experience in Thailand, for what it's worth, I don't see people doing much social distancing in supermarkets and other crowded public venues. But I do see virtually all of them wearing either surgical or cloth masks. Apparently the medical type paper masks are in short supply in the USA at least according to Johns Hopkins which asks the public not to buy them for the sake of medical workers.

 

Well, if masks are so good then I don't suppose we need bother with social distancing, lockdowns, and international quarantining?

[Natai Beach]

The Thais are smart, they listened to medical/scientific advice and realized that covid is a virus. To stop the spread of a contagious virus it is very simple, you socially isolate as much as possible, you wear masks when that is impractical. The Thais controlled covid in under two months.

 

Farangs harped on about wearing masks, socially isolating, tracing etc because they have “rights”. Karen’s etc. They carried on like babies when asked to wear a mask, etc. They protested which actually took more effort than simply putting on a mask. They spread conspiracy theories, it was Bill Gates, 5G, a government plot, the Freemasons, the Illuminati etc etc 

They listened to politicians concerned only with getting re-elected. 

 

Covid 19 does not care about human rights. Covid 19 is not human. 
 

unfortunately now the farangs are spreading covid. The top 30 countries are 90% of infections and most of them are farang.
South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan etc etc covid is a minor problem health wise.  

 

But the farangs with 90% of the  daily infections are ruining the entire world economy. The sensible countries who reacted responsibly are now paying a massive price, waiting it out for the USA, UK, the South American counties and Europe to get their act together. 
 

it is a long and frustrating wait. 
 

[NorthernRyland]

54 minutes ago, Susco said:

Why is the number of expected deaths for 2020 a convenient 350.000 lower than other years? Is that because otherwise there can be no excess deaths?

 

Why is the number of observed deaths not higher than previous years?

The category "observed deaths" is from the CDC and I believe it is merely reported deaths, hence the disclaimer about data lags.  The observed deaths is higher is other months but November is still under and December is not reported yet at all. We're already at 101% of the previous average so it WILL go over once November and December are counted. Look at previous year averages to see what we can expect for December. The only way we go under is if the deaths that would have occurred in December have already happened in previous months.

 

The "expected deaths" is the number which CDC derives using some method which is not fully disclosed. I don't understand why the number is lower than previous years. You can download there database in .csv format and see for yourself.

[FritsSikkink]

1 hour ago, TooBigToFit said:

Thais fear the authorities so when the police come out or soldiers, they usually listen. Plus Thais are fearful in general and I think they'll snap to it when they know the problem is in their area. That's good for Thailand but still the virus is coming and there will be people that have no choice but to work and there will be transmissons. And of course, there aren't enough vaccinations available for everyone so the covid threat will linger on for years.

What a load of BS.

[NorthernRyland]

50 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Maybe try to read the post I was replying to.

 

Would this do it for you?

 

 

Just to be clear: 2020 is NOT over yet so those numbers are not complete.  The expected deaths are derived using a method they do not disclose. Maybe they should have no have included the "expected" number in their database? I think it changes every time they update their database.

 

When 2020 is over we very well may see 280k excess deaths since in 2019 for example there were 231,408 deaths.

[Susco]

3 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

Just to be clear: 2020 is NOT over yet so those numbers are not complete.

Yes I thought about that too late. Thanks for the correction

[NorthernRyland]

37 minutes ago, Susco said:

Yes I thought about that too late. Thanks for the correction

The CDC at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm shows the "weighted vs unweighted" numbers which is their prediction. In the data I showed that is just the raw figures compared to previous years for perspective.

 

[impulse]

2 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

Just to be clear: 2020 is NOT over yet so those numbers are not complete.  The expected deaths are derived using a method they do not disclose. Maybe they should have no have included the "expected" number in their database? I think it changes every time they update their database.

 

When 2020 is over we very well may see 280k excess deaths since in 2019 for example there were 231,408 deaths.

 

Even if you ignore 2020 data, I struggle believing the data that says the deaths in some months varied by up to 20% year on year.  That's just about statistically impossible, given the sample and population sizes.  The variation should be on the order of a few percent or less.

 

Take June, July and August for examples.  There's no way the death rates for a given month really varied between 200K and 260K from year to year.  That's gotta be a data glitch- or rather a series of them, which puts the whole analysis in question.

[NorthernRyland]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

Take June, July and August for examples.  There's no way the death rates for a given month really varied between 200K and 260K from year to year.  That's gotta be a data glitch- or rather a series of them, which puts the whole analysis in question.

 

We had a soft flu season in 19 according to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm. Look at the spike in 2018 also. Some of us suspect a soft 2019 flu season is driving the high deaths in 2020. remember 80% of deaths have been of people over 65 and many had heart disease and pneumonia (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities) so C19 kind of pushed them over the edge.

 

I don't understand the data entirely either. Why is there a big spike in February 2020 that doesn't show in their chart? I understand they try to smooth the data but still. November is looking like it will come in low but that means December may surge.

[NorthernRyland]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

Take June, July and August for examples.  There's no way the death rates for a given month really varied between 200K and 260K from year to year.  That's gotta be a data glitch- or rather a series of them, which puts the whole analysis in question.

 

I also pulled their data into charts for each state. In my state of Colorado you can see similar patterns. We had a really deadly 2018 in November. What happened? It was never talked about. C19 has meant we're hyper focused on the deaths of older people, which is something we just didn't do in the past.

 

Just today in the local paper they said another death was reported for our county: a person in their 90s died in a long term care home from COVID 19. Last year the paper would never have reported that but now we all know.

 

 

[NorthernRyland]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

That's just about statistically impossible, given the sample and population sizes.  The variation should be on the order of a few percent or less.

One more thing. There is the explanation for all their data. It is in fact compiled from another source by the CDC. Do we trust it? I don't know but that's all we get as Americans.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm

[impulse]

7 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

One more thing. There is the explanation for all their data. It is in fact compiled from another source by the CDC. Do we trust it? I don't know but that's all we get as Americans.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm

 

One other mystery is that, with 330 million people in the USA and less than 3 million CDC reported deaths per year, does that mean people are living an average of 110 years?  Just doesn't pass the sniff test...

 

Edit:  Though I can see that may be because of population growth, there may be more younger people and fewer old farts like me as a percentage of the total, but that flies in the face of MSM stories about the "greying of America" and the upcoming collapse of Social Security under the weight of all the Boomer retirees.  Another failed sniff test.

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by impulse

[bodga]

6 hours ago, placeholder said:

Why will "Thailand will be back into the mess soon." It's avoided "the mess" so far.

like an Ostrich you mean

[NorthernRyland]

49 minutes ago, impulse said:

One other mystery is that, with 330 million people in the USA and less than 3 million CDC reported deaths per year, does that mean people are living an average of 110 years?  Just doesn't pass the sniff test...

 

Edit:  Though I can see that may be because of population growth, there may be more younger people and fewer old farts like me as a percentage of the total, but that flies in the face of MSM stories about the "greying of America" and the upcoming collapse of Social Security under the weight of all the Boomer retirees.  Another failed sniff test.

 

The demographics are exactly like that due to decades of mass immigration from the 3rd world. https://www.brookings.edu/research/less-than-half-of-us-children-under-15-are-white-census-shows/

 

As for the data I just noticed that the months blend in to each other due to being sorted by "week ending in". From their data, notice how the first week of March contain parts of February. 

 

2017-02-04,Alabama,1036,1218,false,1056,0,0,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.0,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-02-11,Alabama,1058,1207,false,1049,0,9,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.0,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-02-18,Alabama,1060,1215,false,1054,0,6,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.0,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-02-25,Alabama,1099,1205,false,1045,0,54,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.1,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-03-04,Alabama,1081,1194,false,1034,0,47,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.0,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-03-11,Alabama,1011,1183,false,1026,0,0,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.0,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-03-18,Alabama,1067,1173,false,1015,0,52,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.1,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
2017-03-25,Alabama,1068,1155,false,1000,0,68,2017,4409,6876,0.0,0.1,Predicted (weighted),All causes,,
 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

 

One other mystery is that, with 330 million people in the USA and less than 3 million CDC reported deaths per year, does that mean people are living an average of 110 years?  Just doesn't pass the sniff test...

 

Edit:  Though I can see that may be because of population growth, there may be more younger people and fewer old farts like me as a percentage of the total, but that flies in the face of MSM stories about the "greying of America" and the upcoming collapse of Social Security under the weight of all the Boomer retirees.  Another failed sniff test.

 

Sure. A highly scrutinized database has actually been falsified to promote a false narrative of the Covid-19 pandemic. What doesn't pass the sniff test are your suspicions.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

We had a soft flu season in 19 according to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm. Look at the spike in 2018 also. Some of us suspect a soft 2019 flu season is driving the high deaths in 2020. remember 80% of deaths have been of people over 65 and many had heart disease and pneumonia (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities) so C19 kind of pushed them over the edge.

 

I don't understand the data entirely either. Why is there a big spike in February 2020 that doesn't show in their chart? I understand they try to smooth the data but still. November is looking like it will come in low but that means December may surge.

Good reason to suspect lower flu numbers may also be influencing the count:

Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere

In March, as coronavirus widened its global sweep, one health statistic quickly flattened: influenza cases. In the Southern Hemisphere, flu season would have been just taking off, but cases were virtually nonexistent. “Never in my 40-year career have we ever seen rates ... so low,” says Greg Poland, an influenza expert at the Mayo Clinic. Although researchers need to study the reasons further, several told Scientific American that coronavirus prevention measures—handwashing, mask wearing and social distancing—are working against flu transmission.

Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere - Scientific American