Britain in 'final throw of the dice' as EU trade talks set to restart

[david555]

Brown says PM could face 'economic war' on Brexit with Europe and America 

(on Sophy Ridge Show  today Sunday 6 December )

7,856 views

•Dec 6, 2020

B

Edited December 6, 2020 by david555

[7by7]

14 hours ago, Somtamnication said:

Do not give our fisheries away nor become a legal client of the EU. Stay strong, Boris!

 No one is suggesting that we give our fisheries away.

 

But answer me this; if we do not come to a deal on fisheries, what will become of the UK fishing fleet which sells most of it's catch to the EU?

 

UK Fisheries Statistics

Quote

It is estimated that between 60-80% of UK domestic landings are exported. Meanwhile, five species (cod, haddock, tuna, salmon and prawns) account for 60-80% of all fish consumption in the UK.  These species represent a significant proportion of the UK’s fish imports.....(from page 11)

 

The UK’s biggest export destination for fish and fish products is France – exports to France were worth £561 million in 2019, 28% of all fish exports. (from page 12)

 

We'd have to eat a hell of a lot more fish here to cover that £561 million loss to the UK fishing fleet from French exports; let alone the loss of exports to other EU countries!

 

We'd have to change our eating habits, too. The fish we export to the EU is not very popular here.

[7by7]

8 hours ago, vogie said:

<snip>

It matters not one jot about "polls", can they be trusted, of course not,

You used to regularly post poll results when they supported Boris; now you don't trust them!

 

Easy to see what changed your mind!

[Hi from France]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

It was recently reported that the EU would allow the UK to retain between 15-18% of their fish stock if the UK agreed to allow the EU 10 year  unfettered access to the UK fishing grounds

Yes AFAIK EU asks for 80% while the UK would accept to cede 30%

 

@vinny41

Now the really interesting question is: what did the UE propose to give in exchange for this fishing quota? 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Hi from France

[vinny41]

14 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Yes AFAIK EU asks for 80% while the UK would accept to cede 30%

 

@vinny41

Now the really interesting question is: what did the UE propose to give in exchange for this fishing quota? 

 

 

there are reports last week that state the UK offered 40% to the EU

Barnier said the UK demand for annual negotiations on catches could be conceded, but that there would have to be a means to put tariffs on certain stocks if access was denied to EU boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/02/brexit-uk-has-lowered-demands-on-fish-catches-says-eu

I wonder what is the view of French fisherman take 40% or gamble and end up with 0%

[david555]

28 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

there are reports last week that state the UK offered 40% to the EU

Barnier said the UK demand for annual negotiations on catches could be conceded, but that there would have to be a means to put tariffs on certain stocks if access was denied to EU boats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/02/brexit-uk-has-lowered-demands-on-fish-catches-says-eu

I wonder what is the view of French fisherman take 40% or gamble and end up with 0%

"I wonder what is the view of French fisherman take 40% or gamble and end up with 0% "

 

Probably 0% access for your fish on E.U. markets ....( start looking new recipes for fish as you have to eat them yourself mostly  ....???? ). and  0% single  market access  & loosing Euro passporting for the city  i guess  ????

both % 's meeting each other ???? ? 

Edited December 6, 2020 by david555

[oldhippy]

16 minutes ago, david555 said:

"I wonder what is the view of French fisherman take 40% or gamble and end up with 0% "

 

Probably 0% access for your fish on E.U. markets ....( start looking new recipes for fish as you have to eat them yourself mostly  ....???? ). and  0% single  market access  & loosing Euro passporting for the city  i guess  ????

both % 's meeting each other ???? ? 

Maybe fish curry can replace chicken curry as England's national dish?

[vinny41]

28 minutes ago, david555 said:

Probably 0% access for your fish on E.U. markets ....( start looking new recipes for fish as you have to eat them yourself mostly  ....???? ). and  0% common market trade i guess  

Does that mean the EU wouldn't be selling anything to the UK

[oldhippy]

3 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Does that mean the EU wouldn't be selling anything to the UK

NO, the EU would only sell the many things the UK is desperate for, such as vaccine produced in Puurs, Belgium. After payment of the export tax of course.

[david555]

12 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Does that mean the EU wouldn't be selling anything to the UK

Not under single market rules .... as " no deal rules the waves " ....???? for that it is the E.U.'s 0% to  U.K.

Edited December 6, 2020 by david555

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, david555 said:

Not under single market rules .... as " no deal rules the waves " ....???? for that it is the E.U.'s 0%

So the EU and the UK will still trade under wto rules

I read that in most EU countries  they have millions of unsold cars that have to be sold by December 31st 2020 as they don't meet the new Euro 6d emissions standards that come into force January 1st 2021

[Hi from France]

 

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

there are reports last week that state the UK offered 40% to the EU

 

non there is quite a bit more, yes there is a big stick if the negotiations fail, we all know about this part

Quote

hat, without an agreement, British waters could become off-limits for continental fishing fleets while Britain’s seafood industry would lose access to the EU’s fish markets.

 

 

but what no-one here takes into account is the  big carrot, .. what is actually in the balance against fishing quota is :

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1016/1171941-brexit-energy-negotiations/

 

Quote

Mr Barnier has  acknowledged a link between continued access to the EU's energy market  which diplomats say is highly valuable to the UK and the fisheries aspect of the negotiations

 

and https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/opinion/fish-and-brexit-chips/

Quote

According to a European Parliament report in 2017, the EU-UK electricity and gas market was worth some €6bn in 2015, more than 80% of which was in natural gas. 

 

The UK has become a significant importer of natural gas from the EU and Norway but is an exporter of gas to Ireland and Belgium.

 

The UK sells electricity to France, Ireland and the Netherlands but has also been a net importer of electricity from France and the Netherlands depending on demand and weather fluctuations.

and

Quote

 The fishing industry accounts for a mere 0.08% of our Gross Domestic Product and contributes £1.4 billion per annum to the UK economy, while the energy trade with Europe exceeds 6% of our GDP and amounts to £126 billion yearly.

The fishing industry employs 12,000 people, while the energy sector supports 768,000 jobs.

 

 

so instead of reading tabloids, it is useful to look for what is really traded in this negotiations, don't you think ?

 

 

 

Now the question that each one here can answer ???? is "what would you choose?"

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Hi from France

[david555]

15 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

So the EU and the UK will still trade under wto rules

I read that in most EU countries  they have millions of unsold cars that have to be sold by December 31st 2020 as they don't meet the new Euro 6d emissions standards that come into force January 1st 2021

Here let me help you out  about that norm , and which dates  the cars have to be under it , and how long the under Euro norm 6 can still drive ...... (probably can still drive after those different dates but heavy taxed ..... as Tax money talks ???? )

 

 

Or maybe Merkel invent " the Brexit exception exempt  " by that time ....????

Edited December 6, 2020 by david555

[vinny41]

10 minutes ago, david555 said:

Here let me help you out  about that norm , and when the cars have to be under it , and how long the under Euro norm 6 can still drive ...... (probably can still drive after but heavy taxed ..... as Tax money talks ???? )

euro 6d cars can still drive after January 1st 2020 cars that don't meet the euro 6d emissions can't be sold

From the beginning of January 2021, the Euro 6d emission standard will apply in the European Union. This means that the currently offered cars must find buyers by December 31, 2020, because after exceeding this figure, they will not be able – as a rule – to hit the market. 

https://tekdeeps.com/dealers-in-poland-can-stay-with-several-thousand-unsold-cars-moto-tu-i-teraz/

 

[vinny41]

22 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

 

 

non there is quite a bit more, yes there is a big stick if the negotiations fail, we all know about this part

 

 

but what no-one here takes into account is the  big carrot, .. what is actually in the balance against fishing quota is :

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1016/1171941-brexit-energy-negotiations/

 

 

and https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/opinion/fish-and-brexit-chips/

and

 

 

so instead of reading tabloids, it is useful to look for what is really traded in this negotiations, don't you think ?

 

 

 

Now the question that each one here can answer ???? is "what would you choose?"

 

 

 

it doesn't appear to be a big deal

But this is not to be confused with critical dependency. The UK relies on this source of power because it is marginally cheaper most of the time, not because it lacks alternatives. 

The National Grid says it has the back-up capacity to handle any crisis that arises. “In the highly unlikely event of no interconnector flows between Great Britain and continental Europe we have the tools and capabilities to ensure security of supply,” it said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/13/eu-hints-brexit-energy-blockade-power-blackouts-hollow-threat/

[david555]

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

euro 6d cars can still drive after January 1st 2020 cars that don't meet the euro 6d emissions can't be sold

From the beginning of January 2021, the Euro 6d emission standard will apply in the European Union. This means that the currently offered cars must find buyers by December 31, 2020, because after exceeding this figure, they will not be able – as a rule – to hit the market. 

https://tekdeeps.com/dealers-in-poland-can-stay-with-several-thousand-unsold-cars-moto-tu-i-teraz/

 

If so .... for export ..... all the rich Africans like BMW anyway .... they will find a way ....., do not underestimate German efficiently .... probably your U.K. go find out now  if brexit turn to no deal.... ????

[david555]

16 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

euro 6d cars can still drive after January 1st 2020 cars that don't meet the euro 6d emissions can't be sold

From the beginning of January 2021, the Euro 6d emission standard will apply in the European Union. This means that the currently offered cars must find buyers by December 31, 2020, because after exceeding this figure, they will not be able – as a rule – to hit the market. 

https://tekdeeps.com/dealers-in-poland-can-stay-with-several-thousand-unsold-cars-moto-tu-i-teraz/

 

If so .... for export ..... all the rich Africans like BMW anyway .... they will find a way ....., do not underestimate German efficiently .... probably your U.K. go find out now  if brexit turn to no deal.... ????

 

And if Poland like to write letters to E.U. concerning their problem ..... well than they better be nice and stop vetoing the E.U. ..... no mercy for the blackmailers  ????  

Edited December 6, 2020 by david555

[vinny41]

12 minutes ago, david555 said:

If so .... for export ..... all the rich Africans like BMW anyway .... they will find a way ....., do not underestimate German efficiently .... probably your U.K. go find out now  if brexit turn to no deal.... ????

 

And if Poland like to write letters to E.U. concerning their problem ..... well than they better be nice and stop vetoing the E.U. ..... no mercy for the blackmailers  ????  

Europe will need to find a large number of rich Africans as

In June, ACEA estimated the stock of cars at 600,000 that would remain unsold by the end of December

as for letters being sent to the EU the letter was from  the  Association of European Automobile Manufacturers

 

ACEA represents Europe's car, van, truck and bus manufacturers.

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) represents the 16 major Europe-based car, van, truck and bus makers.

BMW Group, CNH Industrial, DAF Trucks, Daimler, Ferrari, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ford of Europe, Honda Motor Europe, Hyundai Motor Europe, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA Group, Renault Group, Toyota Motor Europe, Volkswagen Group, Volvo Cars, and Volvo Group.

[david555]

23 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Europe will need to find a large number of rich Africans as

In June, ACEA estimated the stock of cars at 600,000 that would remain unsold by the end of December

as for letters being sent to the EU the letter was from  the  Association of European Automobile Manufacturers

 

ACEA represents Europe's car, van, truck and bus manufacturers.

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) represents the 16 major Europe-based car, van, truck and bus makers.

BMW Group, CNH Industrial, DAF Trucks, Daimler, Ferrari, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Ford of Europe, Honda Motor Europe, Hyundai Motor Europe, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA Group, Renault Group, Toyota Motor Europe, Volkswagen Group, Volvo Cars, and Volvo Group.

So same kind of letters British car manufactures and Asian  send to your U.K. Government warning them for same economic disasters .....?  Yes it go hurt  one more than the other .....  brexit ....such a wonderful conservatives  idea  isn't it ????....

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by david555

[oldhippy]

I just do not understand why my fellow Europeans keep bringing up economic arguments!

 

It should be clear by now, that half the British - the winning half - are not interested in economics.

The colour of their passport, their racist hatred against foreigners, their glorious  but bloody past, their historical lack of a labour movement, their cockney accent while admiring the hiso politicians and their German Queen's English, that is why they voted - ok, only half of them - for brexit.

 

Let them - ok, half of them - have their no deal brexit, sorry for the other half, but that's the way it is.

Life is not fair, so the more intelligent half of the British will have to suck it up. Not our problem.

 

 

 

[Hi from France]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

it doesn't appear to be a big deal

But this is not to be confused with critical dependency. The UK relies on this source of power because it is marginally cheaper most of the time, not because it lacks alternatives. 

The National Grid says it has the back-up capacity to handle any crisis that arises. “In the highly unlikely event of no interconnector flows between Great Britain and continental Europe we have the tools and capabilities to ensure security of supply,” it said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/13/eu-hints-brexit-energy-blockade-power-blackouts-hollow-threat/

This is about prices on the energy market, no one envisions causing blackouts. 

 

It's the carrot not the stick, and a very attractive incentive, but are walled-in in nationalist rhetoric, no? 

 

 

 

Anyway, as expected, fishing seems to be solved now, but there are still... Bigger fishes to fry

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/06/major-breakthrough-on-fishing-rights-brings-brexit-deal-closer

 

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Hi from France

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, david555 said:

So same kind of letters British car manufactures and Asian  send to your U.K. Government warning them for same economic disasters .....?  Yes it go hurt  one more than the other .....  brexit ....such a wonderful conservatives  idea  isn't it ????....

 

Leaving the EU was the plan by the Labour Party in 1980, although they weren't planning to have a referendum , they planned just to serve notice on the EU that the UK was leaving

[david555]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Leaving the EU was the plan by the Labour Party in 1980, although they weren't planning to have a referendum , they planned just to serve notice on the EU that the UK was leaving

Planned ...but not done ....

 Hiding now behind Labour .??? ????????????

[CorpusChristie]

4 hours ago, david555 said:

So same kind of letters British car manufactures and Asian  send to your U.K. Government warning them for same economic disasters .....?  Yes it go hurt  one more than the other .....  brexit ....such a wonderful conservatives  idea  isn't it ????....

 

 

   It wasnt a Conservative idea

[transam]

12 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Time for the bold Brexiteers to finally pull the pin.

Capitulate to the EU's conditions or leave with no deal and damage the UK economy.

Still you knew what you were voting for right?

Well you would say something like that, and as you are British, I find it very disturbing...???? 

[transam]

12 hours ago, candide said:

Right! Blaming others is the essence of Brexit. I can already anticipate what will happen.

When things go wrong:

- in case of no-deal it will be because the EU refused to give  "fair deal" and that 's why there was no deal

-in case of a deal, they will blame it on the EU too, I.e. too many rules, etc....

They will find a way to put the blame on remainers, too.

And if things goes right, what will you be saying then, nothing, you will disappear............????

 

[CorpusChristie]

1 hour ago, david555 said:

Planned ...but not done ....

 Hiding now behind Labour .??? ????????????

 

  Not done because they lost power in 1979 , just making the point that it wasnt a Conservative idea , it is a cross party idea 

[luckyluke]

1 minute ago, transam said:

And if things goes right,

If things goes "right" or "wrong" the E.U. and the U.K. will manage.

There may be some difficulties of course ( I hope not too much for the man in the street )

Where there is a will, there is a way.

 

[Proboscis]

14 hours ago, andyg75 said:

All these non Brits that come on here wishing to see the UK go broke or split up must be so jealous of us ,I can’t understand it. How bitter can you get,you need to get a life

 

 

 

I cannot speak for anyone here but a lot of non-Brits in Europe never wanted to see the UK go broke or split up. As I mentioned before, splitting up would give precedence for other countries to split up (Catalunia in Spain, even parts of German to split off, Italy to split in half, Belgium to split into French and Dutch speaking - enought already!). The other EU members wanted to see the UK in the heart of the EU - they remember well (although the Brits themselves forget) that it was from the UK that they got the idea and the push for the SIngle Market.

 

Don't get me wrong - the French may not be able to get their seafood so easily and the Germans will lose market for their cars after Brexit kicks in January 1st. But this has not bred incredible bitterness. If you read the newspapers in these countries, you will not see the German car industry beating the Government or the EU for losing this market for cars. Nor will you see the French consumers marching in the streets for loss of their seafood. The fact is that there will be other sources for seafood and other markets for cars. And while the EU citizens and their businesses will be sad to to see the Brits go on this new strange and inexplicable venture, there is no bitterness.

 

In fact, Brexit has much less coverage in European newspapers than in the UK. They are much more concerned with Covid.

 

You see, the bitterness is all a fantasy of the extreme Brexiteers in the UK. They interpret the EU and all its members as always having been against the UK. And I suppose if anyone only ever read the Murdoch press, they would think that too. In the midst of all the hatred that has been fanned up by the Murdoch media, you fail to see the French people who are fans of Marks and Spenser, the Germans who love old British cars, the Belgians who like their fish done the English style - not to mention the number of people who were able to quote Shakespeare to me in the various countries in Europe whereas that hardly happens in the UK unless you happen to be in Oxford or some place like that.

 

I can tell you that there are some people who are very bitter about what has happened, about the whole Brexit thing who live in Europe. They are the Brits who live very happily in Spain and whose lives will change rather drastically with Brexit, even if there is a deal, even if there is the most perfect deal possible. Now they will be considered a "third country" and will have to face all sorts of bureaucracy with respect to permission to say, work and travel with their pets than before. You should talk to those retirees, some of whom were in favor of the Brexit as it was sold to them at the time but are hopping mad now!

[Surelynot]

1 hour ago, luckyluke said:

I hope not too much for the man in the street

That is exactly who will be impacted......JR-M and his ilk will, in all likelihood, benefit.