Explainer: The potential impact of Brexit without a trade deal

[Hi from France]

... Although you probably notice they did agree on Thursday (it took hours while discussing Brexit took 10 minutes). 

 

You see how important and divisive Brexit has become in European summits. 

[RayC]

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

Not only bumpy, but I hope, the rocky road to ruin for the EU. 

 

Why are you, @nauseus and @vogie - who 'liked' your comment - so keen on seeing the destruction of the EU now that the UK has left?

 

BTW: I still haven't received any replies to a previous question that I posed to Brexiters: 'What exactly do you mean by the EU?' Any answers to that question would be a bonus. Thanks.

[CorpusChristie]

4 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

 

BTW: I still haven't received any replies to a previous question that I posed to Brexiters: 'What exactly do you mean by the EU?' Any answers to that question would be a bonus. Thanks.

 

  European Union ?

Or was that a trick question ? 

[CorpusChristie]

8 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

OK I will ask again. Voting leave meant leaving under what conditions?

The conditions laid out by the leave campaign or leaving with no deal?

 

   Leave and leave completely , it was just the Remainers  who tried to change the vote and keep us in the E.U by only half leaving 

[Hi from France]

1 hour ago, CorpusChristie said:

Leave and leave completely , it was just the Remainers  who tried to change the vote and keep us in the E.U by only half leaving 

You know it was possible to leave while keeping most benefits = staying in the European Free Trade Association, which was actually... founded by the UK? 

 

That would take a bit of renegotiating, and make ultra-Brexiteers complain, but that's probably where the UK will end up in a few years anyway. 

 

That's the second-best deal after EU membership. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Association

Edited December 13, 2020 by Hi from France

[CorpusChristie]

4 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

You know it was possible to leave while keeping most benefits = staying in the European Free Trade Association, which was actually... founded by the UK? 

 

 

 

   The UK left the European Free Trade Agreement in 1972

[Hi from France]

32 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

The UK left the European Free Trade Agreement in 1972

When becoming a member of the EEC. 

 

If I remember well, the EFTA was the top hypothesis (although EFTA members probably wouldn't be happy given UK's size and cooperation history, but that's another matter). 

 

 

[bkk_bwana]

17 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   It wasnt to save his party .

UKIP were rising in popularity and Cameron held the referendum, expecting remain to win and thus making UKIP irrelevant 

You have just confirmed what I said. 

[nauseus]

8 hours ago, RayC said:

 

Why are you, @nauseus and @vogie - who 'liked' your comment - so keen on seeing the destruction of the EU now that the UK has left?

 

BTW: I still haven't received any replies to a previous question that I posed to Brexiters: 'What exactly do you mean by the EU?' Any answers to that question would be a bonus. Thanks.

 

A summons for a like? Well I'm here now. What do you want?

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   The UK left the European Free Trade Agreement in 1972

 

Well there was a bad reason for that. Even EFTA has morphed since then.

[RayC]

9 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  European Union ?

Or was that a trick question ? 

 

My apologies, my reminder about the question was unclear.

 

Many Brexiters - I don't know if you fall into this camp? - claim that the EU is corrupt.

 

Who are the EU in this context? The individual member states? The Commission? The European parliament? Sure, there are bound to be individuals who are corrupt; there are everywhere - but I assume that the accusation is that there is institutional corruption in the EU? So exactly who or what is being accessed of corruption?

 

Btw: My question below addressed to you remains unanswered:

 

How will trading under WTO rules with the EU, rather than the current FTA, be more advantageous for the UK in either short medium or long-term?

 

(My definition of timescales; redefine them if you wish. ST: next 2 years; MT: 2 - 10 years; LT: > 10 years)

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by RayC
Spelling, grammar changes

[CorpusChristie]

6 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

 

 

Btw: My question below addressed to you remains unanswered:

 

How will trading under WTO rules with the EU, rather than the current FTA, be more advantageous for the UK in either short medium or long-term?

 

(My definition of timescales; redefine them if you wish. ST: next 2 years; MT: 2 - 10 years; LT: > 10 years)

 

 

   It will not be advantageous , the WTO rules are something to fall back on if no deal can be made .

Its a plan B

 

[RayC]

3 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   It will not be advantageous , the WTO rules are something to fall back on if no deal can be made .

Its a plan B

 

Thank you. So do you and I agree? There is no economic rationale for Brexit.

[CorpusChristie]

3 minutes ago, RayC said:

Thank you. So do you and I agree? There is no economic rationale for Brexit.

 

   That question can only be answered in the future .

Once all the dust has settled , all the trade deals with other Countries have been signed  , see how that works out , then you can answer whether there was economic rational in the UK leaving the E.U 

[RayC]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   That question can only be answered in the future .

Once all the dust has settled , all the trade deals with other Countries have been signed  , see how that works out , then you can answer whether there was economic rational in the UK leaving the E.U 

 

That's all well and good. However, in that case, isn't it reasonable to expect that there would economic models, produced by Brexit supporters, showing the economic benefits of such scenarios? Their absence suggests that such benefits do not exist.

 

Leaving the certainty that being a member of the single market and customs union brings is a huge risk. In such a case, I would have thought that taking such a risk is only justified if the potential benefits of doing so are huge, and easily demonstratable. Sadly, that is not the case with Brexit.

[mike787]

Pound is tanking against the Baht, no hope left.

[CharlieH]

Reported post and subsequent bickering removed.

 

Please keep your posts on the topic, not on "likes" or other non written responses, if you wish to do that do so in a PM directly to the member concerned. Remember forum rules apply to PM also.

[CorpusChristie]

33 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

That's all well and good. However, in that case, isn't it reasonable to expect that there would economic models, produced by Brexit supporters, showing the economic benefits of such scenarios? Their absence suggests that such benefits do not exist.

 

Leaving the certainty that being a member of the single market and customs union brings is a huge risk. In such a case, I would have thought that taking such a risk is only justified if the potential benefits of doing so are huge, and easily demonstratable. Sadly, that is not the case with Brexit.

 

  Its a big World out there , European dominance is diminishing , its been in decline since 1945 .

Other markets are emerging .

  We need to align ourselves with the future , like with India and Brazil , rather than being stuck with Greece and Bulgaria 

[CorpusChristie]

28 minutes ago, mike787 said:

Pound is tanking against the Baht, no hope left.

 

  The Pound has slight risen against the Baht , and the Pound has risen against the Euro , which isnt good news for our exporters 

[nauseus]

38 minutes ago, mike787 said:

Pound is tanking against the Baht, no hope left.

 

Tanking. ????

[RayC]

5 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Its a big World out there , European dominance is diminishing , its been in decline since 1945 .

Other markets are emerging .

  We need to align ourselves with the future , like with India and Brazil , rather than being stuck with Greece and Bulgaria 

 

It's a bit disingenuous to mention Greece and Bulgaria, but ignore France and Germany: Brazil wouldn't be top of my list of deals to do but that's by-the-by.

 

European - including the UK - dominance may well be diminishing, but 3 of the EU members (France, Germany and Italy) are among the 10 biggest economies in the world, so are still hughly significant.

 

Both the EU and the UK have trade agreements with Japan and Korea, so no net gain there.

 

The EU has a provisional agreed deal with Canada; we currently don't.

 

Of the others (US, China, India). Currently both the EU and UK have a frosty relationship with China. Imo the chances of a trade deal there anytime soon are remote.

 

Why would the US and India put making a trade deal with the UK above a similar deal with the EU which is a much bigger market?

 

Notwithstanding any of that, is it worth trading (sorry) the certainty that being in the EU brings for the complete uncertainty of going it alone? There is no evidence to suggest it is.

[Bruntoid]

1 hour ago, mike787 said:

Pound is tanking against the Baht, no hope left.

Wait for no deal ..... 

[Surelynot]

14 minutes ago, Bruntoid said:

Wait for no deal ..... 

I have had an epiphany........there will be a deal.....Torn between playing Churchill (the Tory) or Father Christmas (the German).....Johnson is going to delay and delay the talks until Christmas Eve or possibly Christmas Day before his big reveal.

 

I can see him now on the steps of No10 all dressed up to announce he has saved the nation.

[Laughing Gravy]

29 minutes ago, Bruntoid said:

Wait for no deal ..... 

 

Just so nobody plays the diversity card.????

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Laughing Gravy

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

Just so nobody plays the diversity card.????

All your Christmas wishes are going to disappear as he sweeps in on has sleigh...

My good friends, for the first time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Brussels bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time... Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.

[Laughing Gravy]

18 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

I have had an epiphany.

On 1st January 2021 remainers and those not from the UK who like to tell us what is good for us believe that the UK will look like this.

 

When In reality it will look exactly the same with minimal change. hopefully all the blue flags with yellow stars have been removed and British Union Jacks can go up with offending anyone anymore.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Laughing Gravy

[Laughing Gravy]

2 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

All your Christmas wishes are going to disappear as he sweeps in on has sleigh...

My good friends, for the first time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Brussels bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time... Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.

Ahhh have you had your cage rattled. I have started using pictures, as no many how many times you write something on these threads some posters still go on and on and on about the same thing that has been debated to death.

 

It would seem you have no sense of humour.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, RayC said:

 

It's a bit disingenuous to mention Greece and Bulgaria, but ignore France and Germany: Brazil wouldn't be top of my list of deals to do but that's by-the-by.

 

European - including the UK - dominance may well be diminishing, but 3 of the EU members (France, Germany and Italy) are among the 10 biggest economies in the world, so are still hughly significant.

 

Both the EU and the UK have trade agreements with Japan and Korea, so no net gain there.

 

The EU has a provisional agreed deal with Canada; we currently don't.

 

Of the others (US, China, India). Currently both the EU and UK have a frosty relationship with China. Imo the chances of a trade deal there anytime soon are remote.

 

Why would the US and India put making a trade deal with the UK above a similar deal with the EU which is a much bigger market?

 

Notwithstanding any of that, is it worth trading (sorry) the certainty that being in the EU brings for the complete uncertainty of going it alone? There is no evidence to suggest it is.

 

It is worth going it alone rather than enduring the complete certainty that the EU will continue to screw the UK indefinitely if we don't leave.  

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Why would the US and India put making a trade deal with the UK above a similar deal with the EU which is a much bigger market?

A deal on immigration would be massive for India......I can see the Brexiteers choking on that one.

[RayC]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

On 1st January 2021 remainers and those not from the UK who like to tell us what is good for us believe that the UK will look like this.

 

When In reality it will look exactly the same with minimal change. hopefully all the blue flags with yellow stars have been removed and British Union Jacks can go up with offending anyone anymore.

 

In the event of 'No deal', I doubt that anyone in the UK will notice much difference on 1/1/21. However, on 1/2/21 the price of fruit and veg might have risen; there may have been reports of problems at the borders; some businesses may be complaining that they don't understand the new processes/procedures and/or the new IT systems don't work properly.... or everything may work perfectly?

 

Nevertheless, why take the risk? No Brexit supporter has been able to cite evidence that leaving the EU will be economically beneficial for the UK.