Progress on Brexit but coming days will be critical, says EU chief

By Francesco Guarascio and Marine Strauss

 

A Union Jack flag flutters in front of Big Ben's clock face in London, Britain, December 13, 2020. REUTERS/Simon Dawson

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The EU's chief executive said on Wednesday she could not say if there would be a trade deal with Britain but there had been progress and the next few days would be critical.

 

"As things stand, I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not. But I can tell you that there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow but it is there," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

 

"We have found a way forward on most issues but two issues still remain outstanding: the level playing field and fisheries. I am glad to report that issues linked to governance now have largely been resolved. The next days are going to be decisive," she told the European Parliament in Brussels.

 

Britain and the EU are in the final stretch of tortuous talks to safeguard an estimated one trillion dollars of free trade beyond Dec. 31, when the United Kingdom completes its transition out of the world's largest trading bloc.

 

Von der Leyen said discussions about access to UK fishing waters for EU vessels were "still very difficult" but negotiators had moved forward on the other most contentious element - guarantees of fair competition for companies.

 

"On standards, we have agreed a strong mechanism of non- regression. That's a big step forward. And this is to ensure that our common high labour, social and environmental standards will not be undercut," von der Leyen said, two weeks before Britain exits the EU's single market and customs union.

 

"Difficulties still remain on the question of how to really future-proof fair competition. But I'm also glad to report that issues linked to governance by now are largely being resolved."

 

While she said she sometimes felt Britain and the EU would not be able to overcome their differences, they would keep trying.

 

Failure to get a deal would damage economies on both sides of the English Channel, send shockwaves through markets, snarl borders and cause chaos in supply chains across Europe as it struggles with COVID-19.

 

Asked to comment on von der Leyen's remarks, a British official said: "We've made some progress, but we are still very far apart in key areas. Still not there."

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-16

 

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More UK jobs lost as prominent Brexiteer Sir Jim Ratcliffe shows what he thinks of the future of a post Brexit UK!

 

Brexiteer billionaire moves Grenadier production to… EU

Quote

First it was Dyson, now Grenadier has decided to up sticks and move out of Britain after its Brexiteer founder lauded the “excellent access to supply chains” in France.

 

13 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

As things stand, I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not..." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

So no change there then, but the EU still like to tell the press and their faithful that they think they have nearly won.

 

Meanwhile Boris was telling his backbencher MPs a different story. "Never fear folks we will vindicate the people in full or else as I have said many times we will start the new year on WTO terms!"

9 minutes ago, Loiner said:

So no change there then, but the EU still like to tell the press and their faithful that they think they have nearly won.

 

Meanwhile Boris was telling his backbencher MPs a different story. "Never fear folks we will vindicate the people in full or else as I have said many times we will start the new year on WTO terms!"

nobody won anything both sides lose, one more then the other, up to you to chose which one loses less or loses more, same same as a glass half full or half empty

11 minutes ago, Loiner said:

I have said many times we will start the new year on WTO terms!"

good luck with that then, don't look back, just a warning, be careful with what you wish for

15 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

nobody won anything both sides lose, one more then the other, up to you to chose which one loses less or loses more, same same as a glass half full or half empty

 

12 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

good luck with that then, don't look back, just a warning, be careful with what you wish for

And yet the EU is still there in the thick of it, negotiating and demanding away but getting nowhere. The EU hasn't called an end to it, or kicked the UK out No Deal as some europosters would prefer. It can't be a magnanimous gift for the good of the UK, so I wonder why?

 

I'm dreaming of a No Deal christmas.

3 minutes ago, Loiner said:

 

And yet the EU is still there in the thick of it, negotiating and demanding away but getting nowhere. The EU hasn't called an end to it, or kicked the UK out No Deal as some europosters would prefer. It can't be a magnanimous gift for the good of the UK, so I wonder why?

 

I'm dreaming of a No Deal christmas.

let's wait and see who gets the last laugh

 

4 minutes ago, Loiner said:

 

And yet the EU is still there in the thick of it, negotiating and demanding away but getting nowhere. The EU hasn't called an end to it, or kicked the UK out No Deal as some europosters would prefer. It can't be a magnanimous gift for the good of the UK, so I wonder why?

 

I'm dreaming of a No Deal christmas.

You seem to have forgotten, Boris said he’d walk on Sunday night.

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

You seem to have forgotten, Boris said he’d walk on Sunday night.

If the room was empty he could have left, but nobody wants to be a party pooper or the first to go. It would be rude to leave his still-hanging-on guests after they have traveled so far.

2 minutes ago, Loiner said:

If the room was empty he could have left, but nobody wants to be a party pooper or the first to go. It would be rude to leave his still-hanging-on guests after they have traveled so far.

Alternatively, he was lying.

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Alternatively, he was lying.

Or negotiating.

28 minutes ago, Loiner said:

I'm dreaming of a No Deal christmas.

 

Did Boris Johnson promise you that? Did you believe him?

A deal is too close to not be made,it would be stupid from both sides if there will be no deal.

There will be a deal for sure,just two points left to work out.

2 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

 

Did Boris Johnson promise you that? Did you believe him?

At the moment I’m taking the promised veto of M. Macron and today the Italian PM Conte. 

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

Meanwhile Boris was telling his backbencher MPs a different story. "Never fear folks we will vindicate the people in full or else as I have said many times we will start the new year on WTO terms!"

And it seems you still believe Boris. Amazing!

so you do not believe Johnson, probably a good bet.

 

For me, I'd bet Father Christmas will have something for us

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

<snip>

Meanwhile Boris was telling his backbencher MPs a different story. "Never fear folks we will vindicate the people in full or else as I have said many times we will start the new year on WTO terms!"

 

Well, some people believe Boris about no deal and have already made plans.

1 hour ago, 7by7 said:

Brexiteer billionaire moves Grenadier production to… EU

 Seems Sir Jim understands the dire consequences to the UK economy of no deal and WTO terms better than many; including the Prime minister!

5 hours ago, Hi from France said:

so you do not believe Johnson, probably a good bet.

 

For me, I'd bet Father Christmas will have something for us

It will only be an empty sack and disappointment for you.

Boris is closing the commons tomorrow and sending MPs home for Christmas. They’ll be back when we are already on No Deal terms. 

7 hours ago, 7by7 said:

More UK jobs lost as prominent Brexiteer Sir Jim Ratcliffe shows what he thinks of the future of a post Brexit UK!

 

Brexiteer billionaire moves Grenadier production to… EU

 

 

Sounds as for Sir Ratcliffe Brexit meant Exit Britain.

 

Same same but different

5 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Sounds as for Sir Ratcliffe Brexit meant Exit Britain.

 

Same same but different

Do you realise that the total production of this outfit is zero? It’s Remainer spin about a moving something that has never existed. They didn’t even start to build a factory but bought a ready made defunct Daimler Benz place. 

Nobody is letting on how much it cost or how much they got in EU grants and loans. The project will probably fail anyway so I hope he takes them for a bundle. 

26 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Do you realise that the total production of this outfit is zero? It’s Remainer spin about a moving something that has never existed. They didn’t even start to build a factory but bought a ready made defunct Daimler Benz place. 

Nobody is letting on how much it cost or how much they got in EU grants and loans. The project will probably fail anyway so I hope he takes them for a bundle. 

Smartville is a purpose-built factory complex in Hambach, France,

The "smart" production site in Hambach (France) with its 2,000 workers was among the most modern automobile production plants. It had been built for 450 million Euros and started production in 1998

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartville,_Hambach,_France

 

But now Hambach is becoming a burden for Daimler because the capacities are much too large due to the Corona crisis. However, dismantling will be expensive. Daimler is initially planning a three-digit million euro amount for the restructuring in Hambach.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/daimler-stellt-smart-werk-hambach-zum-verkauf-16844737.html

 

Sounds like it would have been very expensive to  dismantle factory

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

It will only be an empty sack and disappointment for you.

I was talking about you, for me it's not a disappointment,

 

I think the no-deal situation you yearn for is simply not possible.

 

Late 2020 or early 2021 the UK have the very same crappy deal with just a bit more unemployment and recession for Britain.The Brexit situation took 10 minutes at the last EU summit, the EU can wait.

 

11 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

I was talking about you, for me it's not a disappointment,

 

I think the no-deal situation you yearn for is simply not possible.

 

Late 2020 or early 2021 the UK have the very same crappy deal with just a bit more unemployment and recession for Britain.The Brexit situation took 10 minutes at the last EU summit, the EU can wait.

 

It makes sense.

Actually one of the key argument of Brexiters (IMO one of the few relevant arguments), the direct responsibility of politicians, will play against hard Brexit. 

In case no deal would be the immediate outcome, there will be a strong negative impact for both UK and the EU (although not at the same level).  No EU country leader will be held responsible. However, it will be quite different for UK leaders (BoJo or his successor after he resigns), they will be held responsible for the mess and pressured by the electorate to quickly find a solution (a deal).

 

The problem is that an deal made now isn't going to make a lot of difference to the obstacles we have put in place, messing up trade between the UK and EU.

 

Once May decided that Brexit meant leaving the   SM and CU there were inevitably going to be cost and paperwork involved trading with the EU, indeed the costs of this to British industry have been estimated at £18 billion per year without taking in to account any tariffs that miht be applied.

 

A deal now isn't going to solve the paperwork problem. 

Not many centrists on these Brexit threads ????

56 minutes ago, nkg said:

Not many centrists on these Brexit threads ????

But what is the center with Brexit ?

1 hour ago, tebee said:

The problem is that an deal made now isn't going to make a lot of difference to the obstacles we have put in place, messing up trade between the UK and EU.

 

Once May decided that Brexit meant leaving the   SM and CU there were inevitably going to be cost and paperwork involved trading with the EU, indeed the costs of this to British industry have been estimated at £18 billion per year without taking in to account any tariffs that might be applied.

 

A deal now isn't going to solve the paperwork problem. 

I think a deal does make a lot of difference  : tariffs barriers are unsustainable. e.g. for the supply chains of the auto industry 10% is simply unmanageable

 

now even with a deal that will suppress quotas and tariffs there will be a mountain of bureaucracy: 400 millions extra customs checks a year that will hurt and isolate the british islands

 

 

right now Swindon has closed and could not restart at all in case of no-deal, Jaguar has closed on an off (right now it's off), the Japanese at Sunderland are very very nervous

(source)

 

 

another problem with the deal that will be signed (97%-ready)

• The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£79 billion with the EU in 2019. A surplus of £18 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£97 billion on trade in goods.

source House of Commons Library

 

you get my point:

• in the area where the UK has a trade deficit, goods, there will be not quotas or tariffs; Guess who will benefit
• in the area where the UK has a trade surplus, services this is a no-deal. Granted, services are more complicated than goods, but in this area, the UK has been unable to ask/get anything at all. e.g. in finance the EU can revoke the equivalence of UK banks with a 30-days notice. 

 

 

 

 

another little-discussed problem is that is Brexit will create a more bureaucratic state

Quote

The UK now needs to build its own regulatory functions in Whitehall to replace those that were delegated to Brussels. From medicines to chemicals to aviation, the UK will need to replicate European agencies

 

Quote

Instead of sharing these regulatory functions, Britain will now need to shoulder the responsibility alone. Brexit will be a boon for British bureaucrats.

 

Looking more like another 1-2 year extension to negotiations. The Brits cannot agree to the E.U. financial services industry packing up and leaving to the continent. The E.U. want their pound of flesh and won't agree to any deal where that doesn't happen. The U.K. truly is royally screwed. 

23 minutes ago, pegman said:

Looking more like another 1-2 year extension to negotiations. The Brits cannot agree to the E.U. financial services industry packing up and leaving to the continent. The E.U. want their pound of flesh and won't agree to any deal where that doesn't happen. The U.K. truly is royally screwed. 

I wouldn't say "royally screwed", but its a big loss, in exchange for more autonomy/divergence from the UE, but I still do not understand what the UK will do with more autonomy in tomorrow's world.

 

Divergence from the UE from the EU will be immediately offset by tariffs so where is the competitive advantage?

 

The UK can diverge on the Big Data Market, but then it will loose equivalence and will be barred from EU data. So what is left, The Chinese or the US market? Fat chance.

 

The Australian market? Sure. 

 

 

 

Anyway in a matter of weeks at most there must be a deal on the basis of this one, which is 97% done, then over ten years a series of deals covering services, taking advantage of synergies with the EU with European agencies.

 

 

 

Replicating the European Medicines Agency (EMA) means huge costs, this is simply not sustainable; The UK will have to choose between loosing its lead in pharmaceutics or associating with the EU to mitigate the damage. But everything will come with a price tag, which in the end will be more expensive than membership and not associated with as much power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The main issue for me for future agreements after this one is: you must bring something to the table.

What will the UK offer?

• Access to its internal goods market? done
• Fishing quotas ? done

 

For more deals in the future, what is left to trade?

 

 

.

 

 

Edited December 16, 20205 yr by Hi from France

Troll post removed.  It's a discussion forum.