How have Thailand and Cambodia kept Covid cases so low?

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 12/17/2020 at 8:48 AM, pacman32 said:

All I can tell you is that the virus is supposedly raging here in the UK but still most of our hospitals are empty. The temporary nightingale hospitals that were built have now all been closed after never seeing 1 single patient, despite now being around 4000 a day testing positive ????

 

Fear is the key ????

Just as further proof that most UK hospitals are not empty, it was announced this morning that NHS bed occupancy country-wide, is currently at nearly 90%. In the same statement, an NHS spokesperson pointed out that infection rates are still rising.

 

Also, in a parliamentary debate this week it was revealed that at least one NHS hospital has started turning away patients because its ICU beds are at 100% of capacity.

 

Pressure on hospitals 'at a really dangerous point'

 

Quote

Ambulances queuing to offload patients, staff sickness and a lack of beds mean hospitals are "at a really dangerous point", say emergency doctors.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[BernieOnTour]

17 hours ago, rabas said:

Just to clear up some old wive's tales now that covid-19 is much better understood.

 

The true number of asymptomatic cases is roughly 17% to 20%. The majority of cases do develop symptoms and you can't hide an ongoing outbreak.  Covid symptoms are mostly different from common runny nose colds so most competent doctors can spot covid-19 much of the time. 

 

Even before covid, Thailand tested significant respiratory infections using an inexpensive 'panel test' to detect any of 20+ causes including flus, rhinovirus, and common cold coronaviruses. Even in January, they used panel tests to distinguish covid from other respiratory illnesses, and can still do that. Bottom line, these is no ongoing widespread covid problem in Thailand.

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/australian-study-determines-true-asymptomatic-covi

 

https://www.zmescience.com/science/true-number-asymptomatic-cases-042342/

 

 

Actually, a higher number of “asymptomatic” cases might be better...

 

In essence, asymptomatic means nothing else than that the patients immune system was strong enough to fight the virus in a way, that noticeable side effects were not  experienced.

eg. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/

 

Additionally, a positive rtPCR test does not necessarily mean, you are infectious.

Article with several references to studies here: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/

 

[Jeffr2]

23 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

 

Actually, a higher number of “asymptomatic” cases might be better...

 

In essence, asymptomatic means nothing else than that the patients immune system was strong enough to fight the virus in a way, that noticeable side effects were not  experienced.

eg. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/

 

Additionally, a positive rtPCR test does not necessarily mean, you are infectious.

Article with several references to studies here: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/

 

The article does not say that about asymptomatic people.  It says we don't know, but it could be the viral load they were exposed to, genetic factors, face masks, etc.

 

But that article draws no firm conclusions.

[BernieOnTour]

3 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

The article does not say that about asymptomatic people.  It says we don't know, but it could be the viral load they were exposed to, genetic factors, face masks, etc.

 

But that article draws no firm conclusions.

 

okay !

Maybe, this metastudy from Peter Doshi in British Medical Journal, listing a lot of studies regarding pre-existing immunity,

might give you some more food for thought about immunity and asymptomatic patients:

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

 

In the end, it’s all up to everyone, to draw his own conclusions.

Nowadays, an awful lot of information is available in the internet for free and we do not necessarily need journalists to “interpret” those information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(actually, it’s from Hall, The Friends of Voltaire ...)

[Jeffr2]

55 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

 

okay !

Maybe, this metastudy from Peter Doshi in British Medical Journal, listing a lot of studies regarding pre-existing immunity,

might give you some more food for thought about immunity and asymptomatic patients:

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

 

In the end, it’s all up to everyone, to draw his own conclusions.

Nowadays, an awful lot of information is available in the internet for free and we do not necessarily need journalists to “interpret” those information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(actually, it’s from Hall, The Friends of Voltaire ...)

What I was trying to say....science doesn't fully understand this virus yet.  Probably won't for many years to come, especially with regards to long term effects.  We've got a long way to go.

[BernieOnTour]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

What I was trying to say....science doesn't fully understand this virus yet.  Probably won't for many years to come, especially with regards to long term effects.  We've got a long way to go.

 

I understand ...

 

If you see it like that - what’s then your attitude regarding new vaccines against Covid-19 ? 

The long way to go for science would also apply to the scientific fundamentals of the mechanism of actions these new vaccines are based on - or how do you see it?

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

 

I understand ...

 

If you see it like that - what’s then your attitude regarding new vaccines against Covid-19 ? 

The long way to go for science would also apply to the scientific fundamentals of the mechanism of actions these new vaccines are based on - or how do you see it?

I'll try to find the interview with the CEO of BioNTech.  In a nutshell, we've got a long way to go.  The jabs are for sure going to change.  And for the better.

[Jeffr2]

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/12/02/uk-approves-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-biontech-ceo-pleitgen-intv-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

 

3:30 starts to get interesting.

[Artisi]

23 hours ago, StevieAus said:

Yes but Thailand doesn’t have the problems that they have in the UK, unless you listen to the prophets of doom on this site.

Correct, maybe all the nay-sayer criticising the health system, the government and uncle Tom  Cobley, should hop the first available flight back to their own perfect covid free country where whey will be safer than here in Thailand.

[BernieOnTour]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/12/02/uk-approves-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-biontech-ceo-pleitgen-intv-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

 

3:30 starts to get interesting.

 

Interesting, which of the 3 “endpoints” were tested in Phase III :

In the end, it’s all about “Prevention of symptomatic disease”

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by BernieOnTour

[sitanonchai]

How have Thailand and Cambodia kept Covid cases so low?

 

Why assume it's low, for your info they are hardly testing anybody so nobody knows the infection rate.

[Artisi]

1 minute ago, sitanonchai said:

How have Thailand and Cambodia kept Covid cases so low?

 

Why assume it's low, for your info they are hardly testing anybody so nobody knows the infection rate.

well let's take an educated guess based on what you see and hear around you,  it seems the infection rate might be from zero to nothing, now if you have any contradictory data -- lets hear it, wouldn't want to mislead anyone , now would we?  

[sitanonchai]

4 minutes ago, Artisi said:

well let's take an educated guess based on what you see and hear around you,  it seems the infection rate might be from zero to nothing, now if you have any contradictory data -- lets hear it, wouldn't want to mislead anyone , now would we?  

The answer is in your own quote "It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data"" ????

[paulikens]

On 12/17/2020 at 9:30 AM, Jeffr2 said:

Too funny.  You must not know much about Thai hospitals.  Provencial ones are almost always full.  Something like this would overwhelm the health care system here.

@Jeffr2 you totally contradicted yourself. you said in the other post that you would know if the numbers were made up as the hospitals would be full, now your saying they are always full, make ya mind up! 

[Jeffr2]

20 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@Jeffr2 you totally contradicted yourself. you said in the other post that you would know if the numbers were made up as the hospitals would be full, now your saying they are always full, make ya mind up! 

Umm...full of covid patients. Especially the private hospitals which are no where near full now.

 

As for the up country ones? They'd be overflowing into the parking lots, just like in the West.

[Suua]

19 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Umm...full of covid patients. Especially the private hospitals which are no where near full now.

 

As for the up country ones? They'd be overflowing into the parking lots, just like in the West.

The overwhelming majority of hospital cases are the elderly or people with pre-existing conditions as it is widely reported. 

95% of cases are of mild flu symptoms only.

Most people ride it out. I know of several people in my location who have suffered such. Had two friends go to hospital, one was refused a test, the other balked at the cost.

Regardless, Thailand has very few elders per% of population, compared with the west, largely due to the better health care systems there.

So there will naturally be fewer older people in the hospitals here.....there simply aren't that many. 

As an example, If 1.5 million old people died in the UK (not the current few thousand), their elderly population would then be close to that of Thailand's. (Google is your friend).

[MRJOHNNY]

7 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Just as further proof that most UK hospitals are not empty, it was announced this morning that NHS bed occupancy country-wide, is currently at nearly 90%. In the same statement, an NHS spokesperson pointed out that infection rates are still rising.

 

Also, in a parliamentary debate this week it was revealed that at least one NHS hospital has started turning away patients because its ICU beds are at 100% of capacity.

 

Pressure on hospitals 'at a really dangerous point'

 

 

Not sure what part of the U.K. the O.P. resides in but I can confirm that in South Yorkshire where my 85 year old mother was admitted last week (not Covid related), there IS  a shortage of beds, unfortunately she had to spend her first evening in an A and E cubicle whilst waiting for a bed on a ward.

[Marabou]

Masks and a quick lockdown.

Regarding the "viral pneumonia" comments. Someone took a chart showing viral pneumonia cases increasing in Thailand and posted it here back in February or March. A friend had come up to me and showed me the chart on here, so I did a reverse image search to find the original source of the chart to see what context it was in. It made no sense to me that the government would publicly release a chart showing viral pneumonia cases skyrocketing beyond what's normal if they wanted to cover up something or hide it. I found several news sources that stated statistics in-line with what the chart showed. The news sources said Thai authorities were increasing their surveillance of viral pneumonia cases throughout Thailand. The chart was not showing an increase in cases. This was a misunderstanding, and it created a massive rumor that obviously still persists today. The chart was showing an increase in surveillance. There are always viral pneumonia cases occurring in every country. When they increased from looking at cases in Bangkok to Phuket and other provinces and cities, this caused the numbers on the chart to increase, as one would expect. Those cases in Phuket existed whether COVID existed it or not. They didn't increase, only the monitoring did. Authorities were simply checking out more pneumonia cases to see if there might be a link to COVID-19.

The number of cases shown in the chart were not out of the ordinary. I checked this by going to PubMed.gov to see what the annual and monthly number of cases for viral pneumonia is in Thailand, and it was on par with that, not excess. The chart that people spread around showed a total number of 2500 viral pneumonia cases at it's peak. People on the internet claimed these were "skyrocketing numbers". But Thailand has at least 36,000 viral pneumonia hospitalizations per year, even long before COVID came around. 

So all this talk about "they're documenting COVID deaths as viral pneumonia" is based on a rumor that nobody ever bothered to fact check. It was easier to just look at a chart that said "viral pneumonia" at the top, and run with it. So I just want to put this rumor to rest. Tired of hearing it.

Edited December 19, 2020 by Marabou

[Jeffr2]

12 hours ago, Suua said:

The overwhelming majority of hospital cases are the elderly or people with pre-existing conditions as it is widely reported. 

95% of cases are of mild flu symptoms only.

Most people ride it out. I know of several people in my location who have suffered such. Had two friends go to hospital, one was refused a test, the other balked at the cost.

Regardless, Thailand has very few elders per% of population, compared with the west, largely due to the better health care systems there.

So there will naturally be fewer older people in the hospitals here.....there simply aren't that many. 

As an example, If 1.5 million old people died in the UK (not the current few thousand), their elderly population would then be close to that of Thailand's. (Google is your friend).

What's 1.5 million people dying got to do with Google?  I can't follow that.

 

And you're leaving out the long term consequences of this virus, which aren't known yet.  So impossible to make any conclusions just yet.  The virus isn't done with us...

[sezze]

Luck , climate , food , genetics, social contacts ? So many things still unknown . It is a fact that some countries have way more sick ( hospital admissions , ventilator needed ...) vs the amount of positive people . This is the case in Europe where many countries test a lot , and while the country next for roughly the same amount of positives got less/more people in hospital.

[bermondburi]

On 12/18/2020 at 8:15 PM, sirineou said:

Absolutely right, in fact Thai mortality rate was lower in 2020 than it was in 2019.  (the lower 2020 number probably a function of less traffic deaths due to the lock down)

As a whole maybe, but a lot of excess deaths back in March, April etc. This was from that well known source of fake news the BBC. 

[GroveHillWanderer]

3 hours ago, bermondburi said:

As a whole maybe, but a lot of excess deaths back in March, April etc. This was from that well known source of fake news the BBC. 

This graphic had been posted many times - I even posted it once myself.

 

Yes it shows just under 2,400 excess deaths around March/April but it also shows fewer excess deaths than normal in the period immediately afterwards.

 

Also, even if all those excess deaths were due to CoVid-19 (and there's no evidence or any particular reason why they would have been) that would still be a low CoVid-19 death toll when compared to many other countries in the world. The UK and US back then were getting 1 to 2 thousand deaths a day.

 

So if your argument is that a couple of thousand excess deaths over a 2 month time period earlier in the year means that there was and still is some kind of massive cover up going on to hide the true extent of coronavirus deaths here, I'm afraid that argument just doesn't hold water.

Edited December 20, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[Glaswegian2]

3 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

This graphic had been posted many times - I even posted it once myself.

 

Yes it shows just under 2,400 excess deaths around March/April but it also shows fewer excess deaths than normal in the period immediately afterwards.

 

Also, even if all those excess deaths were due to CoVid-19 (and there's no evidence or any particular reason why they would have been) that would still be a low CoVid-19 death toll when compared to many other countries in the world. The UK and US back then were getting 1 to 2 thousand deaths a day.

 

So if your argument is that a couple of thousand excess deaths over a 2 month time period earlier in the year means that there was and still is some kind of massive cover up going on to hide the true extent of coronavirus deaths here, I'm afraid that argument just doesn't hold water.

 

Never-the-less, there is considerably more reason to be dubious about the claimed performance (about quite a lot of things) than there is to be about just accepting it. Of course, we need as many Polyannas as we can get - optimism isn't always the easiest thing to display.

 

 

[Sunderland]

This comes from the same author who wrote ''How have so many students in Thailand graduated without learning anything?"

[bermondburi]

5 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

This graphic had been posted many times - I even posted it once myself.

 

Yes it shows just under 2,400 excess deaths around March/April but it also shows fewer excess deaths than normal in the period immediately afterwards.

 

Also, even if all those excess deaths were due to CoVid-19 (and there's no evidence or any particular reason why they would have been) that would still be a low CoVid-19 death toll when compared to many other countries in the world. The UK and US back then were getting 1 to 2 thousand deaths a day.

 

So if your argument is that a couple of thousand excess deaths over a 2 month time period earlier in the year means that there was and still is some kind of massive cover up going on to hide the true extent of coronavirus deaths here, I'm afraid that argument just doesn't hold water.

There's also no reason why they wouldn't have been C19 related. 

 

Agreed, a low total in comparison to other countries. 

 

I never said there was a massive cover up. But it's quite natural that a lot of deaths go unrecorded. There was also a big discrepancy in the uk between official government figures and excess deaths total. 

 

I do think that it's odd that there were these deaths at the height of the pandemic in Thailand, and ateotd  2% above normal wouldn't be that noticeable. There was also very little testing in Thailand back then, unlike the situation now. 

 

YMMV. ????

[pacman32]

On 12/17/2020 at 12:11 PM, Patjqm said:

I don t know in Thailand, but here many people are asymptomatic and those who have symptoms have mild symptoms.. the reason that the beds are full( if.) is that the last decade nearly every govnmnt in the EU has downsized the number of  beds...while population is growing. 

But the hospitals are not full! 

The emergency nightingale hospitals which were built here never took any patients and have already been closed down, why if we are still in the middle of a so called pandemic? 

 

Even at the height of the lockdown the hospitals were empty because they were not treating hardly any other issues. 

[pacman32]

On 12/18/2020 at 4:37 AM, GroveHillWanderer said:

Sorry but that's absolutely untrue. I have several relatives who work in the NHS, including my daughter.

 

They have been overwhelmed. In my daughter's hospital they have had around 80% bed occupancy (with Covid patients) at times during this pandemic.

 

Things were getting particularly bad just recently, where she works in the Manchester area.

 

My sister-in-law works in Teesside and they have been similarly run off their feet there as well.

 

The hospitals in the UK are not mostly empty, according to the people who actually work in them.

 

I don't have the latest figures but as of the first week of November UK hospitals were already struggling to cope and cases have only increased since then.

 

See extract below from an article published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) on November 5th:

 

 

NHS placed on highest alert level as intensive care beds fill up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9043583/NHS-data-suggests-hospitals-England-December.html

 

I live in Manchester, and Salford Royal hospital is the central hub for Covid patients in greater Manchester and yes it is busy because of that but still no more busy than last year even though they are taking Covid patients from such a wide area. Also we have a seasonal increase every year but still have lower numbers than last year. Also take into count the excessive testing creating panic visits. 

 

And please tell me 1 hospital 80% full with Covid patients? 

 

Can you explain why the emergency nightingale hospitals were all closed and have not been reopened if we are so short of beds? 

 

It may indeed get worse but we're not there yet. 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by pacman32