New Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand still in early stages, expert warns

[5633572526]

11 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

Nobody stopping you from locking yourself down. Leave the rest of us alone.

[Pattaya Spotter]

8 minutes ago, Jiggo said:

Excuse me but where did you find the 99% in stopping passing the virus, and what type of facemask, as most that you see worn in public don't adhere to health standards.  

See my recent post in the Covid-19 subforum...a recent study determined this, which I linked to. It was actually up to 99.9% but I was being conservative in my post.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[ftpjtm]

8 hours ago, asiacurious said:

Not a single person in Thailand should receive a vaccine until after front line workers have received it.  Health care workers and people who have to interact with others who are sick or in quarantine should be vaccinated first, which will not only help to protect these workers but the rest of the country as well.

So the solution is to forbid the distribution of the Pfizer vaccine in Thailand?

 

Apparently it can't be given to Thai front line workers because the Thai government wants them to wait for their less effective domestic alternative. 

[SheungWan]

12 minutes ago, Jiggo said:

Excuse me but where did you find the 99% in stopping passing the virus, and what type of facemask, as most that you see worn in public don't adhere to health standards.  

Any mask is better than no mask.

[ftpjtm]

26 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Where are you getting this from? No coronavirus vaccines have been forbidden from being used in Thailand. A hospital has been banned from advertising a vaccine for sale, because no vaccine has been approved for use yet by the Thai authorities.

 

That's not the same thing as banning the vaccines themselves.

According to the article;

 

"The Ministry of Health said in a statement that no COVID-19 vaccine had been approved for use in Thailand yet and that advertising one violated hospital regulations."

Edited December 28, 2020 by ftpjtm

[dlclark97]

According to an earlier article Thailand will be purchasing the vaccine for approximately 1110 baht per dose and selling it for 10,000 baht.  <deleted>?

[SheungWan]

15 minutes ago, 5633572526 said:

Nobody stopping you from locking yourself down. Leave the rest of us alone.

Would that include the no-mask and half-mask brigade?

Edited December 28, 2020 by SheungWan

[GroveHillWanderer]

21 minutes ago, ftpjtm said:

According to the article;

 

"The Ministry of Health said in a statement that no COVID-19 vaccine had been approved for use in Thailand yet and that advertising one violated hospital regulations."

Yes, which is exactly what I just said - a hospital has been banned from advertising a vaccine for sale, which is not the same as banning the vaccine.

 

Is the same principle as saying that even if the advertising of cigarette products is banned, it doesn't mean that cigarettes are banned.

Edited December 28, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

New Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand still in early stages, expert warns

Damn he's good, I can see why he's an expert.

[ftpjtm]

Just now, GroveHillWanderer said:

Yes, which is exactly what I just said - a hospital has been banned from advertising a vaccine for sale, which is not the same as banning the vaccine.

 

No vaccine has been banned, because none had been approved.

 

Is the same principle as saying that even if the advertising of cigarette products is banned, it doesn't mean that cigarettes are banned.

They haven't been approved for use, so no one is allowed to use them.

 

Some might call that "banned".

[AlfHuy]

12 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Wow! I always wonder when expert is in the headline but this bloke seems to be saying what needs to happen and I agree (not sure about the testing method RT-PCR but testing is good). Same thing 9 months ago and the numbers would look a lot different. Pitty is he's talking sense in a country run by morons. 

Private hospitals should lower prices. Well obviously it should be free and SUBsidised by the govt who should pay the MOONey.

No Have.

No have enough money.

Must go to Moon and buy sub.

Vely impotant.

[AlfHuy]

1 hour ago, Rocking Robert said:

Well they should put you in charge

In double charge.

Natai as PM

Steven100 as Health minister.

[AlfHuy]

No vaccines in Thailand yet.

They probably send all infected by "soon available" submarines, up the Mekong to Chi.. and the remaining ones to the moon.

Problem solved.

[cnx101]

13 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Wow! I always wonder when expert is in the headline but this bloke seems to be saying what needs to happen and I agree (not sure about the testing method RT-PCR but testing is good). Same thing 9 months ago and the numbers would look a lot different. Pitty is he's talking sense in a country run by morons. 

Private hospitals should lower prices. Well obviously it should be free and SUBsidised by the govt who should pay the MOONey.

Or everything should be paid by China.

[EvetsKram]

13 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Wow! I always wonder when expert is in the headline but this bloke seems to be saying what needs to happen and I agree (not sure about the testing method RT-PCR but testing is good). Same thing 9 months ago and the numbers would look a lot different. Pitty is he's talking sense in a country run by morons. 

Private hospitals should lower prices. Well obviously it should be free and SUBsidised by the govt who should pay the MOONey.

Did you read this morning,  a bangkok hospital pre selling vaccine,  10000฿ when not even approved here.  Thai gov paying 21฿ per dose

[shackleton]

13 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

  Yes totally agree the Prime Minister should lead from the front on this

But now is handing the decision back to the Provincial Governors

Bit late after the New Year like closing the stable doors after the horses have bolted

[sungod]

1 hour ago, ftpjtm said:

So the solution is to forbid the distribution of the Pfizer vaccine in Thailand?

 

Apparently it can't be given to Thai front line workers because the Thai government wants them to wait for their less effective domestic alternative. 

Both have equal effectiveness according to the graphic in the article supplied earlier.

[ftpjtm]

17 minutes ago, sungod said:

Both have equal effectiveness according to the graphic in the article supplied earlier.

The problem with AstraZeneca being that the 1.5 dose regimen was (accidentally) given to a small sub group of patients, none of whom were older than 55 years old. The group with demographics similar to those of the general population only had 60% efficacy. 

 

It's unclear whether the 90% efficacy of the sub group was due to dosage or demographics, which is why testing is ongoing. 

 

Given the choice, I'd choose the alternative. But the Thai government bet all their chips on AZ and IMO due to that is not allowing the alternatives to be used here.

 

And while the AZ vaccine is cheaper, the entire Thai population could be vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna for approximately the cost of their submarine program. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by ftpjtm

[connda]

Operation Warp Speed for the West.
Operation Tony The Two-legged Turtle for Thailand.

We were previously informed that Thailand had contracted for the AZ/Oxford vaccine that is being rolled out in the UK. 
So the UK gets the Astra-Zeneca/Oxford vaccine immediately as it rolls off the production lines - and Thailand? It's not a storage issue as AZ/Oxford isn't required to be stored in sub-Arctic temperature.  Stores at around 5C or basically refrigerator temperature.
From my understanding a contract was signed between Thailand and AZ to supply the vaccine immediately upon production including technology transfer.
So? Then where's the vaccine?  Why are the Thai leadership dragging their feet as the rest of the world rolls the vaccines out to their populations?

Of course when the limited supply gets here than what will be the distribution model.  Let's guess:

• Super-duper Really-Extra-Special VIPs 1st
• Diamond pinky-ring and million dollar watch collection crowd 2nd
• Regular VIPs (MPs, Ministry heads, Bureaucratic heads, etc) 3rd
• High Society Super-duper Extra-Special Financial and Corporate Elites  4th
• Executives working for the High Society Super-duper Extra Special Financial and Corporate Elites 5th
• Wealthy Hi-So 6th (Unless they purchase a "Go Straight To The Head Of The Line" pass via substantial "donations")
• Super-duper Extra Special Hospital Administrators
• ...after which...
• Any who can purchase "Jump Ahead of The Crowd" pass via significant "donations")
• First line medical personnel 
• Private hospital paying customers purchasing the vax for a significant premium over cost (I just read that one hospital is selling reservations for a 1000 THB mRna vaccine for 10,000 THB.  (Welcome to the Land of Greed)
• Foreigners who will be mandated to buy the vaccine at 3x, 5x, or 10x  its actual cost in order to remain in the country
• The rest of the commoners on a first come first serve basis with urban middle-class getting the first available vaccines and the most remote rural commoners getting it sometime in the next couple of year or so if at all.
   

Well, all joking and humor aside.....
But who knows.  Maybe Thailand will rise to the occasion and embrace an egalitarian distribution model that passes out the limited supply in a truly un-Thai manner with the most vulnerable receiving the first dosages and then the most healthy and least vulnerably (or those who simply don't want the vaccine) holding back to allow the aged and first line medical personnel and other vulnerable or those who are psychologically traumatize and who will live in paralyzing fear until they are vaccinated to obtain the first inoculations.  We can hope that Thailand rises to the occasion and embraces true "fairness" above the normal greed and privilege based on social status.

Edited December 28, 2020 by connda

[Sheryl]

14 hours ago, onebir said:

 

 

If cycle threshold in the outbreak  means the mean cycle threshold of the people who've testing positive, that being low implies high viral loads. ie they're unlikely to be asymptomatic, and conversely more likely to spread the virus.

 

 

not the case - viral loads are not lower in aymptomatoc people and may even be higher

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s15010-020-01548-8

 

probably because most of the symptoms are due to the immune response (and severe COVID disease, due to an excessive immune response)

[Bradmeister]

By no means am i a virologist, but I can do the math. Not need a Scientist to warn/claim the worst is far from over. 

 

Its going to run its course. Until it burns out. 

 

Viral Epicenters' will be looming in the shadows around the world for decades to come. 

 

Look at Polio.... supposedly wiped out in our parents generation...  200,000 new cases this year IAW WHO. 

 

It is preventable, but unable to immunize everyone on the planet. 

 

The Spoils of war, to the victor!

[GroveHillWanderer]

3 hours ago, ftpjtm said:

They haven't been approved for use, so no one is allowed to use them.

 

Some might call that "banned".

If so, then some would be wrong. To ban something requires someone in a position of authority to take a decision and then make an official announcement that the thing in question has been banned.

 

This has not happened for any vaccine - they just haven't got around to reviewing and/or approving them.

 

Not having got around to approving a thing yet is not the same as banning it.

 

For instance, just because there was a period before the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was approved in the UK, it did not mean the government had banned it.

Edited December 28, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[Kaopad999]

16 hours ago, mfd101 said:

The obvious question is: So what's the government doing about acquiring one or more of the vaccines in the numbers required to do at least 50% of the total Thai population over the next 12-18 months?

 

Not a word have I heard.

 

Meanwhile the Western countries have all locked in contracts in the millions for various combinations of vaccines and are getting under way with their highest-priority recipients.

 

A few weeks ago I was thankful to be living in Thailand rather than Oz, but I'm not so sure I'll be thinking like that in another 2 or 3 months ...

I won't be hanging around here for long if it violently ravishes through the Kingdom 

[Kaopad999]

14 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

That's why everyone needs to wear masks...you could be asymptomatic but shedding virus, which mask are up to 99% effective in stopping. Less virus in the air = less new infections and spread.

Exactly, it's just common sense. 

As i said before, the only mask that is NOT effective, is the one that you're not wearing. 

[smew]

everyday a new Thai expert and everyone predicts even more dire consequences to get free publicity. 

[ftpjtm]

48 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

If so, then some would be wrong. To ban something requires someone in a position of authority to take a decision and then make an official announcement that the thing in question has been banned.

 

This has not happened for any vaccine - they just haven't got around to reviewing and/or approving them.

 

Not having got around to approving a thing yet is not the same as banning it.

 

For instance, just because there was a period before the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was approved in the UK, it did not mean the government had banned it.

Okay, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines aren't "banned", they are unavailable to Thai residents because government policies forbid them from being distributed. While that makes a difference to you, it doesn't to me.

 

Meanwhile we have a new surge of COVID cases in Thailand, hundreds or thousands working in COVID field hospitals and quarantine centers, and government policy is preventing them and the most vulnerable Thais from being vaccinated until the government "gets around to reviewing/approving" the vaccines that are available now.

 

Any theories on why the Thai FDA hasn't gotten around to reviewing the vaccines that almost all western agencies have? Do they have more important things to do?

Edited December 28, 2020 by ftpjtm

[Anant72]

15 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

My thought exactly.

[RR2020]

8 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Excellent article.  Thanks for sharing.

 

Here is another for you...........

 

Data expected to show Oxford/AZ vaccine with very high efficacy ...........and also they have now confirmed this morning it will work against the new strains.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pascal-soriot-interview-astra-zeneca-has-winning-formula-to-beat-covid-19-httk3wzkm

 

[Arfur]

 

Probably relevant to read this short article published by the British Medical Journal on 21 December 2020.

 

"Unusually in disease management, a positive test result is the sole criterion for a covid-19 case. Normally, a test is a support for clinical diagnosis, not a substitute. 
This lack of clinical oversight means we know very little about the proportions of people with positive results who are truly asymptomatic throughout the course of their 
infection and the proportions who are paucisymptomatic (subclinical), presymptomatic (go on to develop symptoms later), or post-infection (with viral RNA fragments still 
detectable from an earlier infection)."

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851

[Patjqm]

17 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

I cancelled my New Year trip up north, lost the money on the flights, got a refund on the hire car and hadn’t booked the hotel yet. Hoping they will lockdown then I will get the flights refunded.
 

I have watched Europe and the USA all year and thought they were plain stupid for plane travel so it would also be stupid for me to do it now even though I was reluctant to cancel. I was also concerned about getting stuck up north if they locked down when I was there.
 

IMO they should lockdown over NEw Year. Most people have a week off anyway, just make them stay where they are, like they did at Songkran. That worked. There is more covid now in Thailand and the world than back then. If I was in charge I would call a two week lockdown tomorrow and then reassess. Hopefully nip it in the bud.

The problem with New Year is families and friends get crammed in together in the same car to travel. Only one has to have it, then it will spread to everyone in the car during the long drive.Then they all get out at the destination  and visit their various friends and families and it will spread further. Then they head back to work and further spread it. And all the oldies in the village will have it also. 

 

To beat covid you have to social distance, not socialise.

 

i hope I am wrong but it could really be a disaster. Stupid to risk it for a holiday. Once numbers get past a certain level it will be impossible to eliminate like they did last time, and it will just be lockdown after lockdown just trying to contain it like in Europe and failing miserably.
Better to go hard, go fast IMO. 
 

It wasn’t Prayuts idea to lockdown the first time, he was pressured into it. I hope they pressure him again but time is running out.

Apparently there are no covid deads, if low or mild symptoms, herd immunity could be reached by natural infection..