Worst Excess Deaths in the UK Since WW2

[CG1 Blue]

3 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

I think there is a limit to the validity of that claim. Its clear to me at least, that there were a great many more deaths in 2020 that could normally have been expected.  If the figures given are just a normal fluctuation, it would be a hell of a coincidence that they occured during a pandemic.

If you look again I listed 3 factors, with fluctuation being only one of them. 

[KhaoYai]

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

If you look again I listed 3 factors, with fluctuation being only one of them. 

My apologies, I did actually respond to your comment on untreated illnesses but it didn't appear - having problems with a dodgy keyboard and mouse at the moment.

 

I'm not being rude but its been a long day.  The overall point in my original post was to show that those people who claim that the number of deaths from covid are actually low are wrong.

 

I think the overall message here is:  If I and all those who believe in the seriousness of the Covid situation are wrong, what harm will we have done?  Conversely, people trying to discount the seriousness of Covid 19 are proven to have influenced the thinking of others and therefore, their attitude towards restrictions etc..  Many people don't take the time to check things they read on social media etc. and some of those people are happy to find an excuse to break the lockdown rules.

 

I've had a number of friends that have sent me links to CT posts and commented things like 'The government have been lying to us, look at this'. On each and every occasion where I've researched the posts they've sent me, I've found them to be false. I won't even look at them now.

 

People who promote Conspiracy Theories are dangerous - a stance thankfully supported by ThaiVisa.  I had Covid last March and am still suffering, neighbours and 1 friend have died from it.  Friends have had lost their businesses and others are out of work. The UK government have spent £billions on Covid and it all has to be paid back at some point.

 

Yet these CT people would have us believe its all fake and part of some grand plan to keep the serfs in their place.

 

I'm not aiming the above at you in particular, I'm just tired of reading the BS put out by CT supporters.  This is a serious situation for the whole world and people should think seriously about the impact of their claims before trying to influence others with them.

[onebir]

5 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Also all those people who died from other causes because they didn't receive the care they needed will have added to the excess death rate.

All the people who didn't die from various activities that were reduced due to Covid/ lockdowns will have reduced excess deaths.

 

Two obvious categories are traffic accidents (~28k in 2019) & deaths after surgeries (20-25k). Call that 50k. If say 60% of road travel & surgeries were delayed/cancelled, that's a -30k contribution to excess deaths. That probably (at least) offsets deaths due to people not getting necessary medical care; ie there are still unexplained excess deaths that are likely Covid related. 

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, onebir said:

Two obvious categories are traffic accidents (~28k in 2019)

28,000 in the UK?  I don't think so.

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 hours ago, tgw said:

 

you are very mistaken and you addressing me by "people like you" is saying a lot.

I consider every proven fact to be a fact and accept it.

I like clear-cut arguments and mathematical demonstrations with as less approximations as possible.

I believe in data.

 

so as you offer to spend the time to prove that there are more deaths now, I gladly accept.

please prove that the 2020 mortality rate per 100000 population is higher than in the year 2000.

 

Since the wast major of people die of natural causes,  old age mainly, population growth wastly distort the per 100,000.

A chart of mortality among the above 65 years old would be more interesting. 

 

[robblok]

10 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Not really. When you consider the UK counts all deaths 28 days after a positive Covid test (even if the person fell off a ladder) we don't know the true number of actual Covid deaths. Also all those people who died from other causes because they didn't receive the care they needed will have added to the excess death rate. This is highlighted in the report linked by the OP. 

 

 

 

But those deaths are directly covid related because of the strain it puts on the health system. Its funny how all the deniers like to close their eyes and pretend its not true. The UK is hit hard one of the hardest in Europe. Now with this new Brit strain things are bad. Thankfully they started vaccination.

 

I hope the deniers and anti vaxers finally see how bad it is. Now in my country an other of my clients got it not to long ago a friend of my brother and his wife (hospitalized). Its bad and its all over.

We are lucky we are in Thailand, far less problems here.

[robblok]

I might get "lucky"  as GF her company might get vaccines for their employees and possibly family members. They are in the medical field and will try it. I am sure to get vaccinated if they can get it. But their Thai boss said not a Chinese vaccine ????

[BritManToo]

14 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

For almost a year I've been getting figures from Conspiracy Theory believers that appeared to show that there had not been any more deaths in the UK in 2020 than in other years - some even claimed there were fewer than average deaths.  They use these figures to claim that Covid 19 is a hoax.

I'm a bit disappointed, all the scare stories were leading me to expect 50% of the population to die.

Then I would have been able to afford to return and buy a house, as housing prices would have dropped.

 

What percentage of the population died in 2020?

What percentage of the population normally dies in a year?

What percentage has the deaths increased?

 

Are really the only numbers that matter.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totaldeathsin2019and2020sofarintheuk

In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales.

In 2020, there were no figures released, so I don't know where the BBC guy got his numbers from.

Using the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional, as at week 46 (13th November 2020) 529,928 registered deaths in England and Wales.

But extrapolating from 530k by week 46 (530/46 *52) = 600k

Population of England and Wales =60 Million

 

To summarise (England and Wales)

Death rate 2019 = 0.885%

Death rate 2020 = 1.000%

Increase in deaths between the years = 0.115%

 

So at the very worst COVID killed an extra 0.115% of the population

(I wonder how many died because the NHS stopped doing operations?)

Edited January 13, 2021 by BritManToo

[onebir]

6 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

28,000 in the UK?  I don't think so.

Then check

[tgw]

10 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

I didn't offer to spend that time and I have no intention of doing so.  Based on your comment that Covid 19 is not causing as you say 'much deaths', I find it very difficult to believe that you accept facts or believe data.

 

I back my claim by the fact that mortality in the UK in 2020 is 15 to 20% lower than in the year 2000. So, all things considered, it cannot be said that the covid death toll is very high.

 

There was another phenomenon in France some years ago when a heatwave caused many deaths of frail people. The reason was that the heatwave followed several years of mild weather and low flu virus incidence, so frail people did survive longer than statistically expected. covid effects might be similar, considering the strong decrease of UK's death rate in the last 10 years until 2019.

 

 

 

[tgw]

6 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

28,000 in the UK?  I don't think so.

 

correct, 28.000 is the number of deaths and serious injuries. deaths are under 2000.

[Surelynot]

Too early to make comparisons ........it is not a race.........league tables of this nature area unhelpful........nothing to see here.....please move along........I consider the matter closed.

[RickBradford]

 

12 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

If I and all those who believe in the seriousness of the Covid situation are wrong, what harm will we have done?

How about the harm of throwing 125 million people worldwide back into extreme poverty, according to the IMF and World Bank?

 

Note that the damage has been caused not by Covid itself, but the economic recession caused by the global response to Covid.

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/10/21/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-global-extreme-poverty/

 

The effects of this economic shock will be felt for decades.

[CG1 Blue]

7 hours ago, robblok said:

But those deaths are directly covid related because of the strain it puts on the health system. Its funny how all the deniers like to close their eyes and pretend its not true.

If somebody gets Covid, recovers, then 2 weeks later dies in a car crash, that is not a Covid related death. And I am not a denier. I'm just uncomfortable with the current counting method. 

[CG1 Blue]

12 hours ago, onebir said:

All the people who didn't die from various activities that were reduced due to Covid/ lockdowns will have reduced excess deaths.

 

Two obvious categories are traffic accidents (~28k in 2019) & deaths after surgeries (20-25k). Call that 50k. If say 60% of road travel & surgeries were delayed/cancelled, that's a -30k contribution to excess deaths. That probably (at least) offsets deaths due to people not getting necessary medical care; ie there are still unexplained excess deaths that are likely Covid related. 

Some wild assumptions there. Have you thought about how those cancelled surgeries may also cost lives? 

[RickBradford]

8 hours ago, robblok said:

But those deaths are directly covid related because of the strain it puts on the health system.

By that reasoning, someone who dies of a heart attack in hospital would also be "directly covid related" since they are served by the same strained health system.

[KhaoYai]

4 hours ago, onebir said:

Then check

Your calculation was based on deaths in 2019.  That figure is 1752 - somewhat different to 28,000.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-great-britain-annual-report-2019

Edited January 13, 2021 by KhaoYai

[onebir]

5 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Your calculation was based on deaths in 2019.  That figure is 1752 - somewhat different to 28,000.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-great-britain-annual-report-2019

Odd, I got 28k from somewhere. Fair enough.

[KhaoYai]

1 hour ago, RickBradford said:

By that reasoning, someone who dies of a heart attack in hospital would also be "directly covid related" since they are served by the same strained health system.

 According to a senior doctor on a TV programme that I watched, people who have a heart attack or other serious condition and also contract Covid are far more likely to die.  There are so many different connotations that it will never be possible to give an accurate figure on deaths that are directly attributable to Covid 19.

 

That is why the number of excess deaths is probably the only indictator there is that establishes some idea of the situation.

 

It is possible to quote different figures, extract different time scales in order to distort the figures but I think that most rational people will understand and accept the figures produced by the ONS.

[RickBradford]

9 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

It is possible to quote different figures, extract different time scales in order to distort the figures but I think that most rational people will understand and accept the figures produced by the ONS.

I would argue that, given the very broad definition of a "Covid death" in the UK, the only figure which is reliable is the ONS's "all-cause mortality" figure.

 

As has been pointed out, Public Health England's definition of a Covid death as: "death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date" makes any reporting of "Covid deaths" statistical nonsense.

 

All-cause mortality is the way to go, and the UK will see a significant rise this year of around 10%, as has been pointed out before.

[KhaoYai]

4 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

If somebody gets Covid, recovers, then 2 weeks later dies in a car crash, that is not a Covid related death.

Be reasonable - just how many times is that likely?

[Histavia]

18 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I acknowledge that Covid is bad, but I still question the numbers. That's not a conspiracy theory; it's thinking independently. 

That is such a cliche! 

Just look up critical thinking - 

[Histavia]

Just now, Histavia said:

That is such a cliche! 

Just look up critical thinking - it IS a real thing!

 

 

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

 According to a senior doctor on a TV programme that I watched, people who have a heart attack or other serious condition and also contract Covid are far more likely to die.  There are so many different connotations that it will never be possible to give an accurate figure on deaths that are directly attributable to Covid 19.

 

That is why the number of excess deaths is probably the only indictator there is that establishes some idea of the situation.

 

It is possible to quote different figures, extract different time scales in order to distort the figures but I think that most rational people will understand and accept the figures produced by the ONS.

Excess deaths was 0.115%, even if they were all due to COVID, it doesn't seem that significant to me.

And I used UK government numbers to reach that percentage.

 

If you don't like my calculations ..........

Why don't you link us to your figures, make your calculation of the percentage of excess deaths, then explain why you feel they are significant.

Percentage of population dying in 2020 - Percentage of population dying in 2019 = percentage of population dying of COVID

 

Or is your talk all just hot air?

Or are you too stupid to make the comparison yourself.

Or maybe you feel the COVID death rate of 1 in 1000 per year is significant compared to the normal death rate of 1 in 100 per year.

 

Alternatively you could just post some more  'sad' emoticons.

Edited January 13, 2021 by BritManToo

[KhaoYai]

36 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Or is your talk all just hot air?

Yes its all just hot air, happy now?

 

If you think I'm going to discuss matters with someone who was hoping enough people would die to bring house prices down, you are mistaken.

 

Another post for you to add a sad emoticon to.

Edited January 13, 2021 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

15 hours ago, BritManToo said:

In 2020, there were no figures released, so I don't know where the BBC guy got his numbers from.

The BBC's source is the ONS - the linked article originally stated 'provisional ONS data' or words to that effect. The article has been added to and edited several times but the graphs still show ONS.

[Virt]

We also have to remember these death statistics are from a year where a lot of lockdown and restrictions were in place, plus a lot fewer people died to the regular flu because of this.

 

If we treated Covid 19 like the regular flu and carried on like nothing happened, no one really knows how chaotic the situation would have been, other than it would have caused more deaths and more people would be dealing with long term side effects now.

 

I HATE lockdowns, masks and social distancing and it makes me depressed, but we just can't act like nothing.

 

[robblok]

17 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

If somebody gets Covid, recovers, then 2 weeks later dies in a car crash, that is not a Covid related death. And I am not a denier. I'm just uncomfortable with the current counting method. 

If someone can't get medical treatment because the beds and ICU are full then its a Covid death. We were not talking about car crashes being counted as covid deaths. But someone who could be saved with an operation for any disease but now cannot get that operation because off overflowing hospitals is a result of covid.

[robblok]

17 hours ago, RickBradford said:

By that reasoning, someone who dies of a heart attack in hospital would also be "directly covid related" since they are served by the same strained health system.

That is not what I am saying, but that is what an covid denier makes out of it. If the guy is in the hospital got his operation on time then it has nothing to do with covid. If his operation is postponed and he dies because of that its a covid death. Its really quite simple its just that the deniers like to attack the counting method. 

Fine look at excess deaths and the UK now far over that 80k that is already attributed. Exess deaths are far better especially if you take the average of a few years and compare it. No cherry picking like some posters do.

[robblok]

12 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Excess deaths was 0.115%, even if they were all due to COVID, it doesn't seem that significant to me.

And I used UK government numbers to reach that percentage.

 

If you don't like my calculations ..........

Why don't you link us to your figures, make your calculation of the percentage of excess deaths, then explain why you feel they are significant.

Percentage of population dying in 2020 - Percentage of population dying in 2019 = percentage of population dying of COVID

 

Or is your talk all just hot air?

Or are you too stupid to make the comparison yourself.

Or maybe you feel the COVID death rate of 1 in 1000 per year is significant compared to the normal death rate of 1 in 100 per year.

 

Alternatively you could just post some more  'sad' emoticons.

I thought you were so smart and knew everything about statistics.

 

Its better to take the average death rate of 5 years compared to 2020. That would be standard practice. 

 

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths up to 11 December 2020 was 579,491, which is 67,864 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 11 December 2020, 72,546 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. This is 12.5% of all deaths in England and Wales.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11december2020#:~:text=Between Weeks 1 and 12,than the five-year average.

Edited January 14, 2021 by robblok