The Future for Travellers?

[brain150]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

That's not the survival rate. Where did you get that number?

 

WHO !!!

 

Mortality rate is 0.24% according to the WHO

 

Also: According to the WHO the PCR test is completely useless ... still it is the basis for all statistics. So if the test is useless then all statistics are useless. And all you people look at is fake statistics. None of this is science ! It's politics !!!

[brain150]

43 minutes ago, Phulublub said:

What about the hospitalisation rate?  Go look at how stretched the UK health service is.  It is NOT just about mortality.

 

PH

 

You believe this ?

 

Why does Germany close down entire hospitals during the biggest plague the world has ever seen ?

Why does the NHS or CDC both state that they don't have an isolate of the virus ?

Why are the influenca statistics in every country now showing ZERO cases ? ... maybe because it has been rebranded to Covid19 ?

 

Somebody else needs to test you to know if you are sick or not with a test that does not test what it says it does ...

 

Start to think for yourself ... none of this makes any sense !!!

 

[HighPriority]

7 hours ago, millymoopoo said:

I am wondering if there is a political line emerging here, A conservative/socialist line.

USA, Canada, UK, France, Brazil, Netherlands, India, Austria, all conservative governments with weak inconsistent, half hearted, control based covid responses. Perhaps less motivated due to economic concerns. Look where they are now.!

On the other hand socialists, New Zealand and most of the Australian states (not the federal government) have pursued an elimination agenda, Western Australia has had no community transmission for 9 months, Queensland about 3 in the last few months, Northern Territory 1 or 2 in the last 6 months and New Zealand has just found 1 case after about 5 months clear.
So for people in these places life is normal with the exception of no international travel allowed.
Their economies are in a good state, some growing, life is normal, no lockdown, no restrictions, people can go about their normal routine.

Even Victoria Australia (another socialist government) had 720 covid cases in August, UK had 756 at the same time, they locked down and since the end of October Victoria has recorded 3 new cases, how many new cases and how many have died in UK since then.

Whilst this suggests how poor some countries response has been it also suggests how important (to some countries) a covid vaccination passport will be,

This will be so, reluctant countries will run out of excuses and eventually will toe the line, especially when their citizens are denied entry to other countries through lack of a vaccination certificate/passport.

 

Just to clarify a minor point... Northern Territory has had zero cases of community transmission full stop.

The only cases we’ve had are either close contacts of returned travelers or those in mandatory quarantine. 
We are encouraged to social distance and use a log in app when out and about, but for us life is rolling along.

Id like to take my wife to meet family in Qld, NSW and Victoria, but with the threat of lockdown and quarantine we’ll wait for next year.

[brain150]

43 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

We are talking about facts regarding travel requirements here.  You can post as many arguable figures as you like - restrictions have begun and they will increase.

 

Yes you are correct !

Slaves will always do what the master says ... and the slave master has spoken - no more travel for people who think for themselves !!!

[HighPriority]

1 hour ago, brain150 said:

So now everybody needs a vaccine against a disease that has a survival rate of 99.8++ % ?

 

Makes total sense for sure .... because it's in the news, so it must be true

Trump lost, get over it... 

[KhaoYai]

45 minutes ago, brain150 said:

You believe this ?

 

Why does Germany close down entire hospitals during the biggest plague the world has ever seen ?

Why does the NHS or CDC both state that they don't have an isolate of the virus ?

Why are the influenca statistics in every country now showing ZERO cases ? ... maybe because it has been rebranded to Covid19 ?

 

Somebody else needs to test you to know if you are sick or not with a test that does not test what it says it does ...

 

Start to think for yourself ... none of this makes any sense !!!

You have your opinions - that is clear but please understand - firstly, as far as I know, Thaivisa has a policy against conspiracy theorists, covid deniers, anti vaxxers etc.

 

Secondly, this thread is about the Future of Travel regarding restrictions that have either been implemented or are likely to be. So your comment 'start to think by yourself......none of this makes any sense!!!' is irrelevant - travellers will not have any choice, no matter how much thinking they do.

 

In general, your comments run against the thinking of the vast majority of people who are not sheep and can make their own decisions on whether this pandemic is real or not.  If you continue to post conspiracy theorist style comments, I will ask the moderators to remove them.  Please comment on the facts, not your beliefs.

Edited January 25, 2021 by KhaoYai

[rickudon]

The future? Well, not this year. I reckon this pandemic will last into 2022. And unlikely enough people will be vaccinated worldwide by the end of this year. So no real relaxation of travel this year - and more countries are realising that total control can only be achieved if you quarantine (not isolate) incoming passengers. UK just waking up to that - 10 months to late. And if they bring in 14 day quarantine in the UK (which will be at your expense) then expect it to cost about 2000 GBP.

 

Death rate? Worldometer stats put it at just over 2% deaths/confirmed cases worldwide. In the UK, CURRENT death rate is 1% of all Covid-19 admissions, and 1.4% of all confirmed positive tests. Now that there are better treatment regimes, most people do not need to be ventilated in hospital - but of those who are, death rate is very high - 80% one hospital reported.

 

The death rate as a percentage of total population - now over 0.14% in the UK - but other studies show that only about 12% of the population have had Covid-19 so far. To get to herd immunity , you will need 50-80% of the population infected.  With a total of nearly 98,000 deaths so far, that could mean half a million dead before it is over (without vaccination). That would be worse than Spanish flu ......

 

So governments are going to wake up and crack down. With no international vaccine 'passport' yet recognised, and only a few people vaccinated, having a vaccination will not help you travel for a long time to come.

 

Finally, Thailand got a wake up call today. 50,000 random tests done over 5 days around the area of the December fish Market outbreak, and another 800 plus people found positive - no time for complacency. Who knows how many people in Thailand actually have it?

[VBF]

6 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

I don't think its an exaggeration but neither do I think its 'tablets of stone'.  I think its a fair assessment of the situation.  No context was given when that statement was made but the WHO certainly know the 'ins and outs' of the virus so I think they were talking in general more than meaning everbody will be totally safe once we've all had the vaccine. That would clearly not be possible with the current vaccines - given their circa 80-90% efficacy. The context I took from their statement is that it is imperative that as many people as possible are vaccinated and that life will not even begin to get back to normal until that's acheived.

 

I think that for the purposes of this discussion, getting back to normal will come with strings attached.  I don't think anybody will be able to take travel for granted again.  Travel restrictions are actually not that unusual but people living in most developed countries don't notice them.  Relating that to Thailand - people from Yellow Fever hotpsots are required to have a vaccination certificate to be allowed entry for example.  It doesn't affect me as I don't come from one of those 'hotspots' so I don't even notice the restriction.

 

Its all very new at the moment - I think most governments are busy dealing with the 'here and now' of Covid but I think vaccination requirements will become common place both as a temporary measure and as a more permanent matter for the future as countries decide their policy.  At the moment it seems that companies are taking it on themselves to introduce a vaccination requirement and its likely that they are doing that for both the safety of their staff and to prevent potential litigation.  The upshot of this is that it is very likely that people who refuse to get vaccinated will find it very hard to travel anywhere soon.  A country may or may not have a vaccine requirement in place but the carrier might - as I say, its likely that travel will become very difficult.

 

Some countries locked down very quickly (Thailand) and others have been very lax about it (UK) but that is changing and I believe every country will formulate some kind of restriction going forward. The UK for example is currently under pressure to strengthen its quarantine requirements and put in place a hotel system like Thailand's ASQ.  These measures will evolve and my betting would be that in the not too distant future most countries will have permanent restrictions on travel depending on the carrier and the destination.

 

Relating that to the WHO's comments, taken in the context that I believe they were meant, in addition to the measures mentioned above, countries that have not vaccinated the majority of their population will have restrictions on travelling TO them and travellers may need to quarantine on their return.  That is why it is imperative that the vaccine is made available to ALL countries as soon as possible - as they say 'NOBODY'S SAFE UNTIL EVERYBODY'S SAFE'.

Comprehensive response ???? I found your second paragraph the most relevant   I've commented in red:

 

I think that for the purposes of this discussion, getting back to normal will come with strings attached.  It already does if you consider the need to get a visa - easier in some instances than others I don't think anybody will be able to take travel for granted again. I disagree, subject to:  Travel restrictions are actually not that unusual but people living in most developed countries don't notice them.  Relating that to Thailand - people from Yellow Fever hotspots are required to have a vaccination certificate to be allowed entry for example.  I am very familiar with that as I had many YF shots back in the day when I was travelling for business, and once you accept that Country A needs Vac B it's very straightforward - given the availability of the vac of course. It can simply be a condition of issuing a visa i.e. attach your vac cert with your application form and other docs. So once you accept that, it's back to normal and taking travel for granted with a slight change in documents required. The one thing that may change, IMO, is that visa-free entry may no longer be allowed. 

 

I do completely  agree that people who refuse to get vaccinated will find it very hard to travel anywhere soon.   IMO quite right too!

What this does mean is that some countries' nationals will be welcomed to travel sooner than others.

 

In other words, I think that once vaccination really takes off, we'll be back to normal with a bit more "admin"

[cdemundo]

On 1/24/2021 at 3:27 AM, Mike E said:

 

Well, covid is pretty darn rare if you're here in Thailand.  Now I don't know what the percentage of bad reactions to the vaccine are but lets say they are a very small half of a percent.   If 70,000,000 people get vaccinated, that will be about 35,000 bad reactions.  Significantly higher than the 13,000 cases so far and 72 deaths.  As long as cases stay as low as they've been here, I'm perfectly happy if the government insists on vaccinating all citizens first before they decide to get around to farang.

From Bloomberg: "More Than 65.7 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker"

Bad reactions are how many?  In the hundreds?  Certainly nowhere near 35K.

But I agree if you estimate relative risk as less, don't get vaccinated. We all have to make our own decision and I don't think there is any country that has made it categorically required to get vaccination.

[KhaoYai]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

I don't think anybody will be able to take travel for granted again. I disagree, subject to:  Travel restrictions are actually not that unusual but people living in most developed countries don't notice them.  Relating that to Thailand - people from Yellow Fever hotspots are required to have a vaccination certificate to be allowed entry for example.

I'm not being argumentative but I'm not quite following what you mean by 'I disagree, subject to:.....................' Surely the part that you do agree with is exactly what I mean? Any form of restriction on travel that wasn't previously there means that we can't just take it for granted - at least in the sense that in many cases we will not be simply able to just buy a ticket and fly.

 

1 hour ago, VBF said:

I do completely  agree that people who refuse to get vaccinated will find it very hard to travel anywhere soon.   IMO quite right too!

In my opinion, just the fact that a vaccination may be required is 'strings attached'.

 

1 hour ago, VBF said:

IMO quite right too!

Totally agree that its right.  Far too many people. usually those who state that the virus is unlikely to make them very ill or even worse, die, fail to appreciate the fact that even though they are not sick, they could contract it and pass it on to others.  Someone down that chain of transmission could die as the result of their actions.  Although its unlikely that vaccination will be mandatory in most countries, I think that everyone who is able to should do everything they can to protect others - including vaccination. 

[VBF]

13 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

I'm not being argumentative but I'm not quite following what you mean by 'I disagree, subject to:.....................' Surely the part that you do agree with is exactly what I mean? Any form of restriction on travel that wasn't previously there means that we can't just take it for granted - at least in the sense that in many cases we will not be simply able to just buy a ticket and fly.

 

In my opinion, just the fact that a vaccination may be required is 'strings attached'.

 

Totally agree that its right.  Far too many people. usually those who state that the virus is unlikely to make them very ill or even worse, die, fail to appreciate the fact that even though they are not sick, they could contract it and pass it on to others.  Someone down that chain of transmission could die as the result of their actions.  Although its unlikely that vaccination will be mandatory in most countries, I think that everyone who is able to should do everything they can to protect others - including vaccination. 

We're sort of agreeing and disagreeing at the same time.

Before Covid, when I went to Thailand, I had to apply for a visa at an Embassy / Consulate.

That needed me to fill in a form, send a picture, form, fee, passport and wait for my pp to come back complete with visa.

 

The only change there is that (hopefully) I shall need to fill in a form, send a picture, form, fee, passport,  vaccination cert and wait for my pp to come back complete with visa.

so basically, just the same procedure with one added document which I shall obviously have at hand.

 

So I have never actually just "bought a ticket and flown" - however I do agree that those who've hitherto travelled on visa exemption will probably need to change their approach.

Does that make it any clearer?

 

Thankfully we do agree on the need to be vaccinated for exactly the reasons you state - I call that a no-brainer, actually.

[richard_smith237]

8 hours ago, brain150 said:

 

You believe this ?

 

Why does Germany close down entire hospitals during the biggest plague the world has ever seen ?

Why does the NHS or CDC both state that they don't have an isolate of the virus ?

 

Don’t have an isolate of the virus ?

 

8 hours ago, brain150 said:

Why are the influenca statistics in every country now showing ZERO cases ? ... maybe because it has been rebranded to Covid19 ?

 

Say what now ? 

 

8 hours ago, brain150 said:

Somebody else needs to test you to know if you are sick or not with a test that does not test what it says it does ...

erm.. 

 

8 hours ago, brain150 said:

Start to think for yourself ... none of this makes any sense !!!

 

Are you referring to your post ????? 

 

--------------

 

Why is it always difficult to comprehend what the nutters are actually trying to say ???

 

It's not surprising they can’t write clearly if they can’t even think clearly. 

 

 

[thaipara]

Has it yet been mentioned that implementing a proof of vaccination requirement will prevent children from travelling? In several countries a covid vaccination is not going to be given to children any time soon.

[simon43]

10 hours ago, brain150 said:

 

You believe this ?

 

Why does Germany close down entire hospitals during the biggest plague the world has ever seen ?

Why does the NHS or CDC both state that they don't have an isolate of the virus ?

Why are the influenca statistics in every country now showing ZERO cases ? ... maybe because it has been rebranded to Covid19 ?

 

Somebody else needs to test you to know if you are sick or not with a test that does not test what it says it does ...

 

Start to think for yourself ... none of this makes any sense !!!

 

Let me guess....

 

Your user name refers to the total number of brain cells that you possess?

[mr mr]

On 1/24/2021 at 1:30 AM, sammieuk1 said:

reactions are rare covid is not

 

actually. covid-19 has infected .01 percent of the human population. 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/

[rabas]

10 hours ago, brain150 said:

Yes you are correct !

Slaves will always do what the master says ... and the slave master has spoken - no more travel for people who think for themselves !!!

You mean think of themselves not for themselves.

 

We could do things the old way, put all the passengers in a room, whisper vaccine, and let them decide who can board the plane.   See you when I get back...

[rabas]

29 minutes ago, mr mr said:

actually. covid-19 has infected .01 percent of the human population. 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/

 

Wow.  That implies there are 1000 billion people on Earth. 

 

The actual number is 1.3% or 1 in every 80 humans, and rising rapidly.

[Stargeezr]

I just hope that with the more contagious variants being around, that the restrictions

continue, and that when the vaccine has been given to all countries, only people who

have got vaccines can travel in the future.  Same thing for the anti maskers, and those

who think that this virus is still only a flu, or such.  I do not even mind if I have to quarantine

several days, even after I have been vaccinated and am travelling in the future on a long

flight.  I do not want to be sick from this virus, today or any time in the Future. People of 

all ages are dying from this virus, In Alberta, 2 people in their 20s  died, and another province

had a 19 year old die. The senior homes in Canada are still getting lots of their residences

contacting Covid 19 and dying.  I just hope that there will be some places that survive the 

next year or 2 until I can get back to Thailand.  I guess the rich people who take their private

jets to travel, do not have as many boring restrictions, yet...

Geezer

[Mike E]

One thing that seems lost is this discussion is the idea that the vaccine is not a permanent fix like a polio shot.  From what I understand, it's more like a flu shot that provides some protection for a relatively short period.  So, when you say that you will need proof of vaccination, does that mean you will need proof of 'current' vaccination and that you are in favor of requiring people to be vaccinated on a yearly, (or more often) basis in order to travel?

[GinBoy2]

58 minutes ago, Mike E said:

One thing that seems lost is this discussion is the idea that the vaccine is not a permanent fix like a polio shot.  From what I understand, it's more like a flu shot that provides some protection for a relatively short period.  So, when you say that you will need proof of vaccination, does that mean you will need proof of 'current' vaccination and that you are in favor of requiring people to be vaccinated on a yearly, (or more often) basis in order to travel?

'If' it gets to the point where this damn virus does begin to look like annual flu, where we trundle off to the local supermarket to get a flu jab things may well change.

 

But right now it is a whole lot deadlier than the annual flu and governments are terrified of it, especially the new emerging variants. 

 

The good news, if I'm reading the science correctly, is that the new mRNA vaccines can be quite easily tweaked unlike the older intact pathogen approach, which means we might be on the verge of a whole new world of vaccines

[mr mr]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Wow.  That implies there are 1000 billion people on Earth. 

 

The actual number is 1.3% or 1 in every 80 humans, and rising rapidly.

 

ok maybe i did the math wrong. my mistake if so. 

 

99 million divide by 7.5 billion ?

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, mr mr said:

 

ok maybe i did the math wrong. my mistake if so. 

 

99 million divide by 7.5 billion ?

You forgot to convert to percent by dividing by 100.  Unfortunately, covid is moving fast so today there are 100.3 million cases. So   (100.3 / 7800) * 100 = 1.3%.  (calculated in millions)

 

[mr mr]

9 minutes ago, rabas said:

You forgot to convert to percent by dividing by 100.  Unfortunately, covid is moving fast so today there are 100.3 million cases. So   (100.3 / 7800) * 100 = 1.3%.  (calculated in millions)

 

 

thanks.

[Phulublub]

4 hours ago, thaipara said:

Has it yet been mentioned that implementing a proof of vaccination requirement will prevent children from travelling? In several countries a covid vaccination is not going to be given to children any time soon.

So a very very very very small positive may mean we can fly without screaming kids making the journey a nightmare?

 

PH

[millymoopoo]

14 hours ago, HighPriority said:

Just to clarify a minor point... Northern Territory has had zero cases of community transmission full stop.

Sorry, my mistake, thought (incorrectly) NT had a few in the past.

However the main point here is it just goes to prove total lockdown (at the beginning) and closed borders have given NT and WA a relatively normal post covid life, no restrictions (other than no international travel) and a healthy economy and populace, in no small part, as a result of socialist governments prioritising the health of it's citizenry over the economy.

[Phulublub]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

One thing that seems lost is this discussion is the idea that the vaccine is not a permanent fix like a polio shot.  From what I understand, it's more like a flu shot that provides some protection for a relatively short period.  So, when you say that you will need proof of vaccination, does that mean you will need proof of 'current' vaccination and that you are in favor of requiring people to be vaccinated on a yearly, (or more often) basis in order to travel?

So what if we need an annual jab?  AZ vaccine costs IRO $4.  Add in costs and poroft and we are talking maybe $10.  A year.  And whether you are going to travel or not, wouldn't you want it anyway?

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Phulublub said:

So a very very very very small positive may mean we can fly without screaming kids making the journey a nightmare?

 

PH

That is a massive positive......I would happily pay a surcharge for flights with no kids.....parenting skills used to extend beyond knowing how to switch on an iPad.......now kids are allowed to treat aircraft as huge play pens.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Surelynot

[Phulublub]

Just now, Surelynot said:

That is a massive positive......I would happily pay a surcharge for flights with no kids.....parenting skills used to extend beyond knowing how to switch on an iPad.......no kids are allowed to treat air craft as huge play pens.

Used to fly London Cape Town regullarly....BA, SAA and Virgin all had daily flights, all leaving within 30 minuytes of each other.  Wrote to all three suggesting they work together to designate one flight a day from the three as No kids....never received a reply from any of them.  Like you, I would have paid a surcharge!

 

PH

[Surelynot]

Just now, Phulublub said:

Used to fly London Cape Town regullarly....BA, SAA and Virgin all had daily flights, all leaving within 30 minuytes of each other.  Wrote to all three suggesting they work together to designate one flight a day from the three as No kids....never received a reply from any of them.  Like you, I would have paid a surcharge!

 

PH

There has to be a market for such things....alcohol free....no stag/hen party group bookings......

[millymoopoo]

21 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

Except that the Australian state of NSW, with a conservative government, has also seen very few cases of the China virus, and its declared suppression strategy has really amounted to an eradication strategy.

Which is true -  to some degree.

It should be noted the NSW government (NSW health) in the early days of the pandemic was responsible for allowing over 3000 passengers (860 of whom were infected) off the Ruby Princess, without any health checks at all, and these passengers proceeded to filter out across Sydney, NSW and Australia by car, taxi, train and plane, spreading it all over the country.
After the first country wide lockdown, NSW has pursued a suppression policy, only locking down specific areas when an outbreak occurs, only to find 1 week later it has popped up in another area, which then gets locked down and then it pops up in another area, and so on. This has happened not once but several times since the initial country wide lockdown, even once recently exporting the virus (3 infected people) to Victoria.
As a comparison to all the other states NSWs suppression policy (specific area lock down) has not worked all that well with 80% of all outbreaks within the country since the initial lockdown occurring in NSW. It feels a lot like closing the gate after the horse has bolted.!

As for the UK government, had they locked down when Victoria did, one can only wonder in what position they would be in now. They have never closed their borders, even today, and every day, 10,000 people arrive in UK, how many of those are infected.?

An economy in recession can be recovered from, a lost life cannot.!