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Thai baht remains strong, why?


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Is there any TVF members who are (or were) properly qualified in Economics to explain why the Thai Baht remains so high against most of the Worlds currencies?

Please no conspiracy theorists, I would really honestly like to know why it is so?

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12 minutes ago, steevjee said:

I would really honestly like to know why it is so?

all the precautions that were taken after the 1997 crash. no debt, huge cash reserve. external forces like hot honey flowing into Thailand as speculation on the Baht rising. 

 

and a mind set with many Expat that Thailand is some failed state third world country and they can't get it into their heads that it is their home country that is failing, not Thailand.  

 

19 minutes ago, steevjee said:

Please no conspiracy theorists,

 

and the thing that can't be discussed. 

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From economic quoted is due high foreign investment and a strong Thai financial and Asian markets.

The Thai government could adjust it as it is illedgedly overvalued but choose not to. 

Difficult to know about rate's the anti brexit mob here said the pound will hit Bottom but it's over 41 at the moment. 

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16 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Difficult to know about rate's the anti brexit mob here said the pound will hit Bottom but it's over 41 at the moment.

 

Which is a massive gain on the pre-vote rate of 55, huh?

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people make billions trading the baht.  why would there be transparency?  an econ degree will let you understand the market?  only in hindsight you will be able to say something that might not sound dumb.

 

my job is to get you to think it will crash as i keep buying and get rich.   

 

i could tell you about a chinese firm who is buying baht and selling 19 other currencies while also buying 3 other ones while also selling 28 other ones and buying 17 other ones and that everything they do is secret.  

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The Thai baht is not strong it is the other (Western) currencies that are weak, WHY? Because they are printing trillions of funny money and run economies with massive trade and fiscal deficits. By comparison Thailand is a well run economy.

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4 minutes ago, Henryford said:

The Thai baht is not strong it is the other (Western) currencies that are weak, WHY? Because they are printing trillions of funny money and run economies with massive trade and fiscal deficits. By comparison Thailand is a well run economy.

Not so much that it's well run as much as it's oriented toward keeping the upper class...well...upper. Trade protectionism as evidenced by it's high tariffs on imported goods such as autos, liquor, wine, and food products keep the account surplus high, contributing to the strength of the baht. 

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44 minutes ago, tonray said:

How does a low baht make me want to pee more at night ?

It could be with less money you now eating more process food which can result in a higher blood sugar level thus the requirement of more peeing.😂

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10 minutes ago, thailand49 said:

It could be with less money you now eating more process food which can result in a higher blood sugar level thus the requirement of more peeing.😂

Or maybe....drinking more cheap beer to drown my sorrow......cry cry cry

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17 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

From economic quoted is due high foreign investment and a strong Thai financial and Asian markets.

The Thai government could adjust it as it is illedgedly overvalued but choose not to. 

Difficult to know about rate's the anti brexit mob here said the pound will hit Bottom but it's over 41 at the moment. 

Wow. It was 55 the day before the referendum. So we have to be grateful for 41 with Brexit.!!!

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Well steevjee, it is all about a country's economic and financial position, read data, relative to other countries.

 

But first we need to talk about data quality - there are real, accurate data, and there are fake, false data.  A well know senior Thai economist, who used to work at the IMF, and who writes occassionally in an English language Thai newspaper we cannot mention here, has consistently questioned the accuracy of official Thai economic and financial data over recent years.

 

For example, the Thai government claims that there are about 800,000 people unemployed in Thailand at this time; while various independent private Thai groups have estimates ranging from 5 to 8 millions currently unemployed.  In addition, recently the Bank of Thailand predicted the Thai Baht will remain strong this year due to increased Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand, especially in the Eastern Economic Corridor.  However, various private financial groups, including Thai chambers of commerce, have complained about declining Foreign Direct Investments in Thailand.  Who is prodiving the fake, false data -  Thai government institutions of Thai private business institutions?

 

The fake data suggest a strong Baht; the real data suggest a weakening Baht.

 

I am guessing steevee that you are from Australia (sorry if I am wrong).  Almost every week the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases some economic and financial data - if any of these data are strong, eg lower unemployed, decreased trade deficit, increased domestic sales, increased building construction, increased foreign tourism, increased worker productivity, increased foreign investment, etc., etc., the Australian Dollar floats up and becomes stronger relative to other currencies (unless other countries have better economic data than Australia).

 

And remember, every time a big cyclone hits central Queensland or central Western Australia, the Australian Dollar falls.  Why, because most of the mines and ports in those areas which produce coal and iron ore for export are closed; which means there will be a temporary decline in Australian exports, which in turn influences the value of the Australian Dollar.

 

That is a brief thumbnail sketch in non-economic language; I hope it helps.  Apologies for any typos I missed.

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8 minutes ago, JimHuaHin said:

has consistently questioned the accuracy of official Thai economic and financial data over recent years.

One could say the same about almost every country. 

 

The US, for example, has no trouble to publish that, say, 10 million are unemployed, while 20 million are collecting unemployment benefits... among plenty of other weird things. 

 

Generally speaking, each country massages its data in order to show a (far) better economic situation than the real one. 

 

Having said that, one of the reasons for having a strong baht is interest rates, coupled with a stable currency. 

 

In Japan and the EU, rates are negative, and they are at zero in the US, while they are still positive in Thailand. 

 

When you talk in billions, a half percent difference in interest rates means a lot. 

 

There are other countries that offer higher interest rates than Thailand, but their currencies are generally not so stable... which also explain why they need to pay more to attract foreign investors... 

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3 hours ago, chicowoodduck said:

Good Lord..... next up asking TV members for medical advice! 🤪😱🤫🤯

From OP "Is there any TVF members who are (or were) properly qualified in Economics to explain..." - seems entirely sensible. I also would like to hear an explanation from someone who is qualified to do so.

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7 minutes ago, BoonToong said:

From OP "Is there any TVF members who are (or were) properly qualified in Economics to explain..." - seems entirely sensible. I also would like to hear an explanation from someone who is qualified to do so.

There is no such person.  If there was, they would all be filthy rich, predicting the changes that are going to happen.  Interesting that all the filthy rich people are not economists, far from it some of them. Economics is like fortune telling, or astrology, it has little basis in fact or science.

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Just now, Pilotman said:

There is no such person.  If there was, they would all be filthy rich, predicting the changes that are going to happen.  Interesting that all the filthy rich people are not economists, far from it some of them. Economics is like fortune telling, or astrology, it has little basis in fact or science.

The OP should ask Soros then? 🙂 

 

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3 hours ago, siamike said:

Last month the United States placed Thailand on their watch list for suspected currency manipulation  https://thethaiger.com/news/national/thailand-on-us-treasurys-watchlist-for-suspected-currency-manipulation  

For undisclosed reasons, the Thai Government wants the Baht to remain strong.

Yeah but everybody is on one or the other US watchlist.........even themselves!

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3 hours ago, JayClay said:
19 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Difficult to know about rate's the anti brexit mob here said the pound will hit Bottom but it's over 41 at the moment.

 

Which is a massive gain on the pre-vote rate of 55, huh?

 

Yep! My income from the UK dropped around 20% in value overnight ☹️

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3 hours ago, JayClay said:

 

Which is a massive gain on the pre-vote rate of 55, huh?

OK for those here who don't understand my point.

Brexit or no Brexit when has the Euro bought more baht than the £.

This is about strong baht currency £ was 37-38 for a long while, now at the moment around 41 why that is I have no idea. 

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9 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Yep! My income from the UK dropped around 20% in value overnight ☹️

Why don't you change to Euro's and get a better baht rate of exchange then.

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2 hours ago, thailand49 said:

It could be with less money you now eating more process food which can result in a higher blood sugar level thus the requirement of more peeing.😂

Yep, Diabetes, because you are eating of of the food carts, spending Baht, while not buying the more expensive healthy choices because of the high import fees....sigh

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28 minutes ago, ThaiFelix said:

Yeah but everybody is on one or the other US watchlist.........even themselves!

But is the Watchman on the watch-list, they were just borrowed after all, no manipulation of money on his part at all...just ask

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In general, I expect Asia to continue to ascend, and the West to continue to decline. I think the "American empire" is drawing to an close. Sure, the military may remain enormous for decades to come. But, the economy will continue to wither, compared to other giants, like China, and India. So will the cultural influence, as Hollywood is going downhill fast, and the pop singers of today do not have much to contribute. America will no longer be the place to be, as it will become harder and harder to get good paying jobs, the overall quality of life there is a pale shadow of what it used to be, for all but the top 5%, and the xenophobic visa policies will continue to discourage the best and the brightest from around the world from working there. Due to an outdated quota system, the US has not attracted that group, for quite some time. Nobody really knows how much the US accumulated debt is. It was around $27 trillion prior to Covid. And the entire Iraq and Afghan campaigns were done "off the books". That is somewhere in the $6-10 trillion range (I do not care about official numbers, as they are always a lie). Plus around $6-7 trillion in Covid relief. So, where does that leave the US? In the range of 39 to 44 trillion in debt. With interest rates expected to rise over the next 5-10 years, how does a debt load like that remain serviceable? 

 

Total potential debt for the U.S. by one all-encompassing measure is running close to 2,000% of GDP, according to an analysis that suggests danger but also cautions against reading too much into the level.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/real-us-debt-levels-could-be-a-shocking-2000percent-of-gdp-report-suggests.html

 

“The share of publicly held debt we have now relative to GDP has only happened once before in U.S. history. What our debt levels are — we often talk about this number, $19 trillion of debt. That’s not the real number because all of your entitlement spending is kept off book on a different ledger. The real number is more like 70 to 75 trillion dollars — and so when you set that up against U.S. GDP, the only time we ever had a debt-to-GDP ratio like this was on the eve of the Great Depression.”
— Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), town hall meeting in Elkhorn, Neb., March 17, 2017

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/04/18/is-the-real-number-for-the-national-debt-70-trillion/

 

To some extent, much of this applies to Europe also. Asia will continue it's ascent for the next century or so. It is the place to be. So, it makes sense that the predominant Asian currencies will only get stronger. I can foresee the Thai baht being somewhere in the 15-20 baht per dollar range, within the next 5-10 years. Just a wild prediction. But, it is possible. 

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3 hours ago, thailand49 said:

That will make you pee even more beer in general has lots of sugar!🤣

 

Beer has exactly 0g of sugar.

That's a fact.

 

What happens in the body with the metabolism of alcohol is an entire different thing.

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