The "Game Changer" (that must come)...........

[jacko45k]

7 hours ago, Leaver said:

As said in another post, if you were vaccinated tomorrow, and have a big vaccination certificate to prove so, what, exactly, does this do for you in relation to international travel? 

Well nothing.... doesn't the vaccination take 3 weeks to give immunity, and then a 3 month wait for the second jab? 

[BritManToo]

8 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Haven't you heard the latest news? 

 

Once you are vaccinated, and have a piece of paper to prove it, the borders of EVERY country open up to you.   ????

Maybe not .............. you get your vaccination and certificate, then a new variant invalidates it a few weeks later.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by BritManToo

[jacko45k]

21 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Maybe not .............. you get your vaccination and certificate, then a new variant invalidates it a few weeks later.

Yes, apparently the Astrazeneca vaccine is less effective against the South African variant and the UK is talking about booster shots for variants in the autumn. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by jacko45k

[Rimmer]

Inflammatory baiting post and replies removed

[GroveHillWanderer]

15 hours ago, Leaver said:

As said in another post, if you were vaccinated tomorrow, and have a big vaccination certificate to prove so, what, exactly, does this do for you in relation to international travel?  

At this precise moment in time, nothing.

 

But I reckon a requirement for a vaccination certificate for international travel is almost certainly in our futures.

 

Some countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Israel have already announced plans for introducing so-called "vaccine passports" (see link below) and the example of yellow fever vaccination certificates is also there as a model to follow.

 

Covid vaccine passport plans

 

Thailand for instance is one of the countries that requires a yellow fever vaccination certificate for people coming from countries where yellow fever is prevalent.

 

I'd actually be surprised if they're isn't a requirement for a Covid vaccination certificate for entry to a bunch of countries within a year or two.

Edited February 8, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 2/6/2021 at 10:12 AM, Henryford said:

 

Are they coronaviruses? If it's so easy to eradicate Covid (after 6 months) why have we suffered fron colds and flu for the last 100 years.

Well, the flu is definitely not a coronavirus and actually, neither are most colds. The majority of colds are caused by rhinoviruses.

 

As to why we've not found a "cure" for the common cold, that's because there are so many different viruses involved (about 200 of them).

 

Firstly, there are four different coronaviruses causing colds so just for them alone you would need four different vaccines - and you would still only be able to prevent 20% or so of colds.

 

When it comes to the rhinoviruses it gets even more fraught, as there are around a hundred of them. Then there's the adenoviruses, RSV and parainfluenza that can cause colds.

 

Finally, there are also a lot of cold-causing viruses that doctors haven't identified. By some estimates, about 20-30% of colds are of unknown origin.

 

So asking, "If we can't prevent the common cold, how can we prevent CoViD-19?" is not a question that makes any sense to me. The two situations are just not comparable.

[rickudon]

We would all lke to be optimistic, but a few truths. 

1. Thai authorities have already said that vaccinating the Thai population will take until the end of 2022. Remembering  how optimistic the announcements of Thai authorities are, we shouldn't rely on this.

2. How long do pandemics last? Usually about 2 years, BUT normally their are minimal control measures - all the emphasis on social distancing, masks, lockdowns etc. has slowed this pandemic down - it could last longer .....

3. It will be this autumn before the majority of some countries have been immunised - unlikely there will be a significant mass  of tourists available before end of this year. 

4. Countries which have had a significant number of cases may open their borders earlier, but countries like Thailand, Vietnam, New Zealand and Australia which have been mainly Covid free are not going to risk that status until vaccinations reach a significant level - they have to much to lose.

5. No-one really knows how long the protection from a vaccination will last, or how infectious you might be if infected after vaccination - countries will err on the side of caution before opening up.

6. Mutation - it may not mutate as fast as flu, but already we have at least 4 strains which are widespread, so vaccines are unlikely to give long term protection - although this is a known unknown (HaHa!). 

 

My own expectation is that the virus will subside this summer, but reappear with a vengeance again next winter again, particularly in countries with low vaccination rates. It will slowly subside during 2022, but still be a 'small' issue in 2023. We have all seen how opening up early was disastrous last year. Tourism will not be significant before 2022, and not 'normal' until 2024. The damage to the tourism industry has already been done, another year will not make much difference.

[HashBrownHarry]

6 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

At this precise moment in time, nothing.

 

But I reckon a requirement for a vaccination certificate for international travel is almost certainly in our futures.

 

Some countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Israel have already announced plans for introducing so-called "vaccine passports" (see link below) and the example of yellow fever vaccination certificates is also there as a model to follow.

 

Covid vaccine passport plans

 

Thailand for instance is one of the countries that requires a yellow fever vaccination certificate for people coming from countries where yellow fever is prevalent.

 

I'd actually be surprised if they're isn't a requirement for a Covid vaccination certificate for entry to a bunch of countries within a year or two.

I've worked in Africa for 10 years + and never been asked for my Yellow Fever book upon arrival in to Thailand so what you state is incorrect.

[Leaver]

On 2/8/2021 at 4:19 AM, swissie said:

If the "vacci-boys" make up for 20% of the population, Airlines will start flying for those "select-people" again. Also will certain Tourist-Destinations "open-up" for those "select-people" simultainiously.

 

No, certain tourism destinations will not open up to vaccinated tourists because a person who has been vaccinated can still carry the virus, a still spread the virus.  

 

At least 60% to 70% of the people in the tourism destination will have to be vaccinated as well.  Since we are discussing Thailand, with around 70 million people, that's around 45,500,000 million Thai's, at 65% of the population, that will have to be vaccinated before borders open.  

 

How long do you think it will take Thailand to do that?

 

This is why I said they may divert vaccines to islands like Phuket, where they can vaccinate the population and start up tourisms quicker, because they can protect entry and exit from such islands.  This probably means everyone on the mainland waits longer, which means people wanting to come back to Pattaya wait longer also, and businesses in Pattaya waiting for tourists wait longer.  

 

On 2/8/2021 at 4:19 AM, swissie said:

Given all reasonable projections/possibilities, I still expect to be visiting Thailand in June/July this year.

 

This is possible, with quarantine.  It's possible now, also.

 

Will you pay for and do the quarantine?  

 

[Leaver]

On 2/8/2021 at 5:39 AM, jacko45k said:

Well nothing.... doesn't the vaccination take 3 weeks to give immunity, and then a 3 month wait for the second jab? 

 

Exactly.  

 

The traveller has to have completed the vaccination course, and the majority of the population in the country the traveller wishes to visit also has to have completed the vaccination course.  

[Leaver]

On 2/8/2021 at 7:14 AM, BritManToo said:

Maybe not .............. you get your vaccination and certificate, then a new variant invalidates it a few weeks later.

 

That's why the race is on, and those falling behind in the race, like Thailand, will have to keep boarders closed to keep new strains out, and hope a new strain does not mutate from within Thailand.  

 

 

[Leaver]

On 2/8/2021 at 1:27 PM, GroveHillWanderer said:

At this precise moment in time, nothing.

 

 

Correct, and not for many months, possible years, into the future.  

 

On 2/8/2021 at 1:27 PM, GroveHillWanderer said:

But I reckon a requirement for a vaccination certificate for international travel is almost certainly in our futures.

 

I agree.  However, if the holder of such a certificate wishes to travel to a country where the population has not been vaccinated to a sufficient percentage, then their vaccination certificate is useless.

 

On 2/8/2021 at 1:27 PM, GroveHillWanderer said:

Thailand for instance is one of the countries that requires a yellow fever vaccination certificate for people coming from countries where yellow fever is prevalent.

 

I'd actually be surprised if they're isn't a requirement for a Covid vaccination certificate for entry to a bunch of countries within a year or two.

 

I have no doubt Thailand will request tourists have such certificate, AFTER the vaccination has rolled out here. 

 

Until then, there will be a lot of people who have been vaccinated that wish to travel to Thailand, but must wait for Thailand to vaccinate the majority of the population before they can use their vaccination certificate to enter.   

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 2/8/2021 at 8:11 PM, HashBrownHarry said:

I've worked in Africa for 10 years + and never been asked for my Yellow Fever book upon arrival in to Thailand so what you state is incorrect.

See below. As of December 2020, a yellow fever vaccination certificate was still a requirement for entry to Thailand if coming from a country where it's endemic. It's possible that IO's are not properly enforcing this but the requirement still exists.

 

Thailand Required Vaccinations - Yellow Fever

 

Quote

"A Yellow Fever vaccination certificate is only required for travellers 9 months of age and older coming from - or who are in airport transit for more than 12 hours within - a country with risk of Yellow Fever transmission.

[...]

Last reviewed and updated: December 2020"

 

[HashBrownHarry]

14 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

See below. As of December 2020, a yellow fever vaccination certificate was still a requirement for entry to Thailand if coming from a country where it's endemic. It's possible that IO's are not properly enforcing this but the requirement still exists.

 

Thailand Required Vaccinations - Yellow Fever

 

 

21 years, never been asked for it.

 

I'd be surprised if the IO's have even heard of it...

[Blue Muton]

I think you might have to compromise until normal service is resumed.

[Blue Muton]

On 2/5/2021 at 8:39 AM, Henryford said:

Did the flu jab eradicate flu? 'nuff said.

Did the smallpox jab eradicate smallpox? 'nuff said.

[swissie]

Have nothing fundamentally new to add, except that the idea that vaccinated people shold be allowed certain privileges (Travel) is globally gaining strenght by the day (including in Thailand, see sub-forum "Thailand News").

The main reason for this push is probably the realisation that the world economy can not hop from one Lockdown to the next indefinitely.

- The crucial question remains: Are vaccinated folks still contagious? What I can gather from reputable media sources: "The jury is still out" on this one. (No, I do not rely on internet sources, where every moron can declare himself a Virologist).

 

Should it become clear that vaccinated people pose no major risk for others, my "game-changer" scenario may become reality soon.

 

Fact remains (sadly): The "West" can appearantly not produce enough Vacci-Doses fast enough. Russian and Chinese Vaccines will have to be approved worldwide. This is no time for ideological trench warfare.

For now, all we can do is wait and see how things evolve.
=======================
I myself am starting to pack my suitcases, still expecting to visit Thailand in June/July (one way or the other). Time is of the essence. Before Pattaya City Hall decides to turn Pattaya into a second Macao/Sihanoukville/Singapore.
Cheers.

[TaaSaparot]

7 hours ago, swissie said:

The crucial question remains

 

I think the crucial question  is .... is it discriminatory?

[jacko45k]

4 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

I think the crucial question  is .... is it discriminatory?

I expect it will be unless the alternative is no travel until some places have caught up. But the whole process of allowing people to travel is discriminatory. 

[simon43]

I'd say that a fair few of you will be dead and buried before easy international travel is available again.  I'm hoping that things will ease by around 2025 or 2026, when I start my retirement......

[BritManToo]

12 hours ago, swissie said:

The main reason for this push is probably the realisation that the world economy can not hop from one Lockdown to the next indefinitely.

I see absolutely no need for international recreational travel.

It's something we like to do, it's not necessary for anyone anywhere.

In fact it's probably destructive to the people and the world.

[TaaSaparot]

8 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I expect it will be unless the alternative is no travel until some places have caught up. But the whole process of allowing people to travel is discriminatory. 

 

But by age?

 

If I was of a younger age group, and they told me that only senior generations will be allowed to travel, go to cinemas, pub, restaurants etc. ... I think I would riot.

[TaaSaparot]

7 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I see absolutely no need for international recreational travel.

It's something we like to do, it's not necessary for anyone anywhere.

In fact it's probably destructive to the people and the world.

 

Yes, it looks like we will return to an era, where only the Rich can afford to travel.

[jacko45k]

5 minutes ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

But by age?

 

If I was of a younger age group, and they told me that only senior generations will be allowed to travel, go to cinemas, pub, restaurants etc. ... I think I would riot.

Where do you associate 'age' discrimination? Purely by the fact only older people are receiving the vaccinations? (Not true for everywhere, Indonesia plans to give it to the younger folks first.) I have heard no examples as you cite.... a vaccination certificate is open to those who have been vaccinated. 

[Leaver]

On 2/13/2021 at 9:14 AM, Blue Muton said:

Did the smallpox jab eradicate smallpox? 'nuff said.

 

HIV is still here, but I guess if you don't do any "jabbing" you can't catch it.   ????

[TaaSaparot]

9 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Where do you associate 'age' discrimination? Purely by the fact only older people are receiving the vaccinations? (Not true for everywhere, Indonesia plans to give it to the younger folks first.) I have heard no examples as you cite.... a vaccination certificate is open to those who have been vaccinated. 

 

Are we discussing Indonesian Tourists here?

[kinyara]

49 minutes ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Are we discussing Indonesian Tourists here?

 

I'm interested to hear your view as a guy who is the historical bread and butter of the old Thai tourist model.

 

Are you prepared to pay anything above your traditional annual holiday, like quarantine or insurance etc etc  ?  As you say you are getting older and you can just live Pattaya via the internet from your living room back home through YouTube, social media etc.

 

 

 

[kinyara]

1 hour ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Are we discussing Indonesian Tourists here?

From a Western tourist perspective when do you think you will make the effort to visit Thailand on holiday again ?

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Are we discussing Indonesian Tourists here?

If we say 'tourists', why not?

Are we discussing age discrimination here?

Edited February 15, 2021 by jacko45k

[TaaSaparot]

11 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Are we discussing age discrimination here?

 

I can only post from how the UK vaccination programme is being done.

 

But if a vaccine passport was introduced today, to allow travel, to enjoy Cinemas, Pubs, etc. then I can not see how it would not be age discriminatory, unless suddenly private hospital were going to be allowed to start vaccinating people also.