Optimism as number of new COVID-19 cases in Thailand falls for third consecutive day

[FarFlungFalang]

8 hours ago, dinsdale said:

India: Almost 11,000,000. Indonesia: More than 1,000,000. I know they are large populations but it's still 12,000,000 people. 

Deaths per million of population:

 

US     1430

UK     1651

India   112

Indonesia 115

These figures highlight a big difference in the most important stat.The US and UK and Europe have major deficiencies in Vitamin D compared to these Asian countries.

 

[Darkside Gray]

Can anyone see the testing station shown as hygienic!

[RickBradford]

11 hours ago, polpott said:

Over 2 million people have died in the last 12 months. I have lost 3 friends to it. My daughter and son in law are working on Covid wards in the UK. Tell them that its mass hysteria.

 

You may be right that we have to live with it and that we'll need the vaccine incorporating into the annual flu jab but until then we need to deal with it. The way forward is to vaccinate everyone and until then, contain the spread. This is what every government in the world is now doing because its the only way, sorry you can't see what everyone else can see.

You react as though Covid were something completely new,  which came out of the blue and was not predicted or planned for. 

 

In fact, the UK had been planning for a respiratory pandemic since 2006 or so, putting it at the top of the National Risk Register since 2008. In 2017, it assumed that a new pathogen might cause 750,000 deaths.

 

A comprehensive strategy for dealing with a pandemic was produced in 2011, known as the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy. 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf

 

It includes solid references for how to deal with the arrival of a new respiratory virus into the UK.

 

It states: "During a pandemic, the Government will encourage those who are well to carry on with their normal daily lives for as long and as far as that is possible, whilst taking basic precautions to protect themselves from infection and lessen the risk of spreading influenza to others. The UK Government does not plan to close borders, stop mass gatherings or impose controls on public transport during any pandemic."

 

That advice held up until March 2020, with the UK's  'behavioural scientists'  still advising that 'citizens should be treated as rational actors, capable of taking decisions for themselves and managing personal risk'.

 

Suddenly, there were scenes of lockdowns in China, then Italy, Spain and France, and the government panicked, throwing 10 years of policy planning away in a few hours.

 

Even they have now realized that lockdown itself will cause over 100,000 deaths in the UK, which will be more tilted towards the younger demographic than Covid. 

 

https://www.politicmag.net/politics-news/coronavirus-news-total-pandemic-death-toll-could-hit-220000-sage-warns-uk-news-reports-35478-2021/

 

You can argue back and forth about whether this outweighs trying to save lives from Covid itself, but the overwhelming impression is one of panic and hysteria, which appeared to spread faster than Covid.

 

 

[rabas]

54 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Deaths per million of population:

 

US     1430

UK     1651

India   112

Indonesia 115

These figures highlight a big difference in the most important stat.The US and UK and Europe have major deficiencies in Vitamin D compared to these Asian countries.

 

Nice theory, but it doesn't fit data that well. The US, UK, and Brazil have higher Vitamin D3 levels than India and probably Indonesia (Indonesia did not report data but Malaysia is lower). However,  Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand are higher. So, it could be one of many factors in Sunshiny Thailand.

 

See the map in this paper.

https://revista-fi.com.br/upload_arquivos/201606/2016060068176001464973585.pdf

Edited February 8, 2021 by rabas

[Bkk Brian]

13 hours ago, RickBradford said:

Somebody, somewhere, somewhen, has to call a halt to the mass hysteria and say: "We have done what we could, vaccinated the vulnerable and the scared, and now we accept we have to live with this thing because it ain't going away." 

With the news out today that the Astrazeneca vaccine is not effective against the South African variant, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55975052

 

One now really has to question how this is going to be resolved. Its going to be around for our lifetimes, its going to keep mutating and new vaccine developments constantly needed. I totally agree with what your saying, we have to get on with it, protect those we can and let life go on.

[FarFlungFalang]

37 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Nice theory, but it doesn't fit data that well. The US, UK, and Brazil have higher Vitamin D3 levels than India and probably Indonesia (Indonesia did not report data but Malaysia is lower). However,  South East Asia is higher. So, it could be one of many factors in Sunshiny Thailand.

 

See the map in this paper.

https://revista-fi.com.br/upload_arquivos/201606/2016060068176001464973585.pdf

Just to counter with some more recent research which seem to contradict the info in your link.

 

 https://www.clinicalnutritionjournal.com/article/S0261-5614(20)30639-7/fulltext#

Edited February 8, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[rabas]

10 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Just to counter with some more recent research which seem to contradict the info in your link.

 

 https://www.clinicalnutritionjournal.com/article/S0261-5614(20)30639-7/fulltext#

Your paper is a cross-ethnic study of differences between UK white and ethnic minorities. In numbers, they see only a small percentage of whites have low vitamin D (about 10% across seasons) while  minorities are much higher.  Then they provide the obligatory alarming conclusions.

 

In science terms, the paper does not contradict my global data in fact, it seems to fit numerically. Moreover, it provides no comparison to to the other countries in your original theory.

 

OTH, does vitamin D help? Probably some.

 

I don't really know but just took my bi-weekly  dose.

[FarFlungFalang]

44 minutes ago, rabas said:

Your paper is a cross-ethnic study of differences between UK white and ethnic minorities. In numbers, they see only a small percentage of whites have low vitamin D (about 10% across seasons) while  minorities are much higher.  Then they provide the obligatory alarming conclusions.

 

In science terms, the paper does not contradict my global data in fact, it seems to fit numerically. Moreover, it provides no comparison to to the other countries in your original theory.

 

OTH, does vitamin D help? Probably some.

 

I don't really know but just took my bi-weekly  dose.

Yeah I agree.About the only thing I see as conclusive about this pandemic is the inconclusiveness of the science about it.I see now that South Africa has halted their Astra Zeneca vaccine roll out saying it's inconclusive wether it's working with their strain of the virus. I'll just add that I've always preferred to get as much sun as I could as I alway felt better despite all the advise to the contrary by the official advise.  

Edited February 8, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[RickBradford]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Yeah I agree.About the only thing I see as conclusive about this pandemic is the inconclusiveness of the science about it

Yes. And it's caused not by lack of information, but by too much.

[polpott]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

With the news out today that the Astrazeneca vaccine is not effective against the South African variant, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55975052

The article doesn't say that. it says "not as effective".

 

1 hour ago, rabas said:

OTH, does vitamin D help? Probably some.

 

It only helps if you have low levels of vitamin D. If you have normal levels of vitamin D taking extra does nothing. In the UK its a problem with the Moslem community as many women expose nothing but their eyes when going outside. People with black skin in Northern climes suffer because their skin is less absorbent to the sun's rays. I have white skin and spend most days outside wearing nothing but a short sleeved shirt and shorts in Thailand. Would be pointless for me to take additional vitamin D. Overdosing on vitamin D can do more harm than good.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, polpott said:

The article doesn't say that. it says "not as effective".

Oh dear, splitting hairs when I also provided the link for complete quotes. My paraphrase still stands its not effective with the new South African variant, if it was The South African authorities would not have stopped using it and Astrazeneca would not be rushing to get a new version out, which it currently is.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, polpott said:

The article doesn't say that. it says "not as effective".

 

 

It only helps if you have low levels of vitamin D. If you have normal levels of vitamin D taking extra does nothing. In the UK its a problem with the Moslem community as many women expose nothing but their eyes when going outside. People with black skin in Northern climes suffer because their skin is less absorbent to the sun's rays. I have white skin and spend most days outside wearing nothing but a short sleeved shirt and shorts in Thailand. Would be pointless for me to take additional vitamin D. Overdosing on vitamin D can do more harm than good.

When was the last time you had a blood test to see where your Vitamin D levels are.  I test every 4 months, am outside daily, as white as can be but with some tan, and my levels are just barely at the low end of the levels they like to see.  I take 20,000 units of vitamin D in a capsule form, three times a week.  In the past year my levels have increased but not even close to the middle of the spectrum.  Unless your 100% sure your vitamin D levels are good, and have had a blood test, it is only speculation your part. Your statement of "Would be pointless for me to take additional vitamin D", is just that speculation without knowing.  For you to give the type of advice you are giving is far from helpful.

 

[polpott]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

When was the last time you had a blood test to see where your Vitamin D levels are.  I test every 4 months, am outside daily, as white as can be but with some tan, and my levels are just barely at the low end of the levels they like to see.  I take 20,000 units of vitamin D in a capsule form, three times a week.  In the past year my levels have increased but not even close to the middle of the spectrum.  Unless your 100% sure your vitamin D levels are good, and have had a blood test, it is only speculation your part. Your statement of "Would be pointless for me to take additional vitamin D", is just that speculation without knowing.  For you to give the type of advice you are giving is far from helpful.

 

I have full bloodwork done annually. No problems here.

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, polpott said:

I have full bloodwork done annually. No problems here.

Of course, and your 100% sure that a Vitamin D Bio Assay has been done as Doctors don't routinely do vitamin D testing during annual physical exams. The test that is done is a specific blood test that measures a form of vitamin D known as 25-dihydroxyvitamin D.  Many Doctors only order it if your they suspect you have a vitamin D deficiency.  Vitamin D is also a necessary component for cognitive issues and has been found to assist with slowing the start of dementia and Alzheimers.

 

https://www.simplysupplements.co.uk/healthylife/memory/link-between-vitamin-d-and-dementia#:~:text=Vitamin D deficiency may not be the cause,D supplements may help to limit this progression.

 

Another link or two for you if you want to believe you are checked automatically  during your annual blood tests.

Vitamin D - Mayo Clinic

 

https://www.sharecare.com/health/vitamin-d/physical-vitamind

Edited February 8, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[polpott]

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Of course, and your 100% sure that a Vitamin D Bio Assay has been done as Doctors don't routinely do vitamin D testing during annual physical exams. The test that is done is a specific blood test that measures a form of vitamin D known as 25-dihydroxyvitamin D.  Many Doctors only order it if your they suspect you have a vitamin D deficiency.  Vitamin D is also a necessary component for cognitive issues and has been found to assist with slowing the start of dementia and Alzheimers.

 

https://www.simplysupplements.co.uk/healthylife/memory/link-between-vitamin-d-and-dementia#:~:text=Vitamin D deficiency may not be the cause,D supplements may help to limit this progression.

 

Another link or two for you if you want to believe you are checked automatically  during your annual blood tests.

Vitamin D - Mayo Clinic

 

https://www.sharecare.com/health/vitamin-d/physical-vitamind

I'm sure that my doctor would check for it if he thought it necessary. The main reason I have a medical is because I'm in remission for cancer, the treatment for which left me with deficiencies in my immune system.

[ThailandRyan]

As a diabetic I have bloodwork done every quarter when I have my endocrinology appointment to ensure all is good.  Cheap as Chips as a brit friend would say to have blood work done, of course my US based Insurance reimburses my costs and 90% of the costs for my quarterly medications I get from the hospital, as I have never found a Thai company that provides any pharmacy benefits, and such for my pre-existing conditions.

 

SO my concern over Covid-19 and the spread is warranted, as well as my concern for transparency and the ability to ensure my GF and I are also safe in our everyday travels for her work and other things.

Edited February 8, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[polpott]

49 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Cheap as Chips as a brit friend would say to have blood work done, of course my US based Insurance reimburses my costs and 90% of the costs for my quarterly medications I get from the hospital, as I have never found a Thai company that provides any pharmacy benefits, and such for my pre-existing conditions.

 

Not as cheap as chips" as in the UK. I get all my meds for free and have them posted over every 16 weeks. I return to the UK for my annual medical.