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Explainer: The WHO's theories about the origins of COVID-19 after Wuhan probe


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Explainer: The WHO's theories about the origins of COVID-19 after Wuhan probe

By David Stanway

 

2021-02-10T074858Z_2_LYNXMPEH190JI_RTROPTP_4_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-WHO-CHINA.JPG

Peter Ben Embarek, Peter Daszak and Marion Koopmans, members of the World Health Organization (WHO) team tasked with investigating the origins of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), pose for pictures at a hotel in Wuhan, Hubei province, China February 10, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song

 

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A team of experts appointed by the World Health Organization (WHO) completed its 28-day mission to the Chinese city of Wuhan this week seeking clues about the origins of COVID-19.

 

The following looks at their findings.

 

WHAT ARE THE MAIN SCENARIOS?

 

Peter Ben Embarek, the WHO's leading animal disease expert, said the team conducted scientific investigations into four main scenarios about how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, spread into humans.

 

In the first, a single person was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 through direct contact with the host species, the horseshoe bat. The virus could have been circulating in humans for a while before making its breakthrough in heavily populated Wuhan.

 

The second scenario, seen as the most likely, involves transmission to humans via an as yet unknown intermediary species. Liang Wannian, an expert with China's National Health Commission, said pangolins were potential candidates but other animals - including mink and even cats - may also be reservoirs.

 

A third possibility is that COVID-19 originated under the first or second scenarios and was then transmitted via cold chain products. Chinese experts have attributed later COVID-19 clusters to imported frozen food and have raised the possibility it might also have caused the Wuhan outbreak.

 

The final scenario is that SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is known to have studied captive coronaviruses. Ben Embarek ruled out the possibility and said it would not be subject to further research. Accidents happen, he said, but it was "very unlikely" in this case.

 

WHEN DID THE OUTBREAK BEGIN?

 

The experts said that while it was unlikely there were large-scale outbreaks in Wuhan or elsewhere in China before December 2019, they do not rule out that it was circulating in other regions.

 

A crossover either directly from bats or from an intermediary species would suggest the transmission to Wuhan could have been facilitated by wildlife trading networks.

 

Marion Koopmans, another member of the expert team, said wildlife on sale in the Huanan seafood market could be traced to regions that contain bat habitats known to harbour viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2.

 

One such region is the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan, but the team is also considering that the first human transmission took place across the border in Laos or Vietnam.

 

WHAT ROLE WAS PLAYED BY HUANAN MARKET?

 

Although the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan was linked to the first case clusters, the initial crossover from animals to humans did not occur there.

 

Liang said that there was still insufficient evidence to determine how the virus entered Huanan, but that it was clear it was circulating elsewhere in Wuhan at the same time.

 

The most likely scenario is that someone carried SARS-CoV-2 into the market, but Ben Embarek also suggested it could have been introduced via a "product", including frozen wild animals known to be susceptible to the virus.

 

DO THE FINDINGS CHANGE THE POLITICS AROUND COVID'S ORIGINS?

 

China has expressed concern that any investigation would be "politicised", and said it would only cooperate if it was clear it would not be expected to take blame for the pandemic.

 

By ruling out the lab leak and accepting that COVID-19 could have originated outside of China, the WHO team has not crossed any of Beijing's lines. China would also be heartened that the WHO team is considering the cold-chain theory. But the findings are unlikely to satisfy those who believe China is culpable and has covered up evidence.

 

WHAT FURTHER RESEARCH IS REQUIRED?

 

Ben Embarek said China needs now to find evidence that might prove the coronavirus was circulating much earlier than December 2019. He said blood bank samples would be a good place to start.

 

Bat communities near Wuhan have been ruled out as a source, and more needs to be done to scour caves in other regions to see if a closer match to SARS-CoV-2 can be found.

 

The animals on sale at the Huanan market also need to be scrutinised further, and the role played by cold chain products in general also needs more research, Ben Embarek said.

 

reuters_logo.jpg

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-02-10
 
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3 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

But the findings are unlikely to satisfy those who believe China is culpable and has covered up evidence.

about the same audience that believes china is not trustable; that would be about 90% of the countries on earth

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26 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

China has expressed concern that any investigation would be "politicised", and said it would only cooperate if it was clear it would not be expected to take blame for the pandemic.

 

By ruling out the lab leak and accepting that COVID-19 could have originated outside of China, the WHO team has not crossed any of Beijing's lines. China would also be heartened that the WHO team is considering the cold-chain theory. But the findings are unlikely to satisfy those who believe China is culpable and has covered up evidence.

Forgone conclusions fabricated to suit the CCP. What a crock of sh!te

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1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

he final scenario is that SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is known to have studied captive coronaviruses. Ben Embarek ruled out the possibility and said it would not be subject to further research. Accidents happen, he said, but it was "very unlikely" in this case.

no, when it rolled out, a white guy who had lived in china showed a very coherent documentation that makes this the most likely scenario, just typical i didnt save the link

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1 hour ago, foreverlomsak said:

About what I expected, all conjecture and no real substance, it may have....., it's possible that....., and so on.

 

  What if / maybe .?? 

We can expect , another 30 pages on this dynamic topic ...

   Try Kindle ..  Changed my use of my spare and idle time ..555

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2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

China has expressed concern that any investigation would be "politicised"

Which was the big problem.
 

Trump was out calling it the China Flu, politicizing mask wearing, hanging it on Biden for wearing a mask, holding political rallies. And both sides were out protesting. Moronic.
 On track for 700,000 deaths. 
 

China acted quickly and enforced mask wearing and social distancing and locked down hard, less than 5,000 dead total, the USA will having more deaths than 5,000 every two days. 

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8 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

China acted quickly and enforced mask wearing and social distancing and locked down hard, less than 5,000 dead total,

so they say, who is doing the counting, a regime that doesn't admit to anything if it doesn't have to.

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2 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

so they say, who is doing the counting, a regime that doesn't admit to anything if it doesn't have to.

Looks like the Western experts on the ground in Wuhan are fairly confident the Chinese have beaten it. 
No need for masks or social distancing anymore in Wuhan. Great result for Wuhan. 
Let’s hope the other countries begin to catch on. 
7B46421A-C623-45B7-8E2F-E11BDC4A8DB6.jpeg.dc46f887ab16fc1bc9dbf06c10a2ff91.jpeg

 

 

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The bottom line is that it will take long time, if at all, to find out the truth of the origin of the virus what with China doing all it can to hide, delays, deflect, alter and pull the wool over anyone who tries to get to the what how and where it all started...

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1 minute ago, Natai Beach said:

Looks like the Western experts on the ground in Wuhan are fairly confident the Chinese have beaten it. 
No need for masks or social distancing anymore in Wuhan. Great result for Wuhan. 
Let’s hope the other countries begin to catch on. 
7B46421A-C623-45B7-8E2F-E11BDC4A8DB6.jpeg.dc46f887ab16fc1bc9dbf06c10a2ff91.jpeg

 

 

Yeah, but they are only allowed to see what the Chinese government want them too see and if you do not see things then they do not exist. do they?

The truth is what we want it to be not what is is.

I'm not saying that they are lying the truth is always with who is telling the story.

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I saw a report at a Vietnamese in vitro diagnostic company in May last year, where they were awarded a contract from their Health Ministry in early December 2019 to produce tests for a new virus called SARS-CoV-2. In order to get to the contract stage, this virus must have been going on for a while before early December.

 

I would suggest that the WHO are having a 14 day quarantine followed by a 14 day jolly to tell us that everything is not the fault of China. The local Institute of Virology has had at least 14 months to cover up its tracks. Reminds me of some testing of athletes in laboratories in Russia.

 

It also reminds me of the Foot and Mouth leak in Pirbright in 2007 from a Government controlled facility.

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So it was a essentially a repeat of SARS from 2003 but with much much more severe consequences.  A repeat because they are still selling exotic wildlife in markets because it is believed that eating them will make old men more virile.  Or nonsense cures for other diseases.  And then ensuring that once an outbreak begins that it gains a good foothold and maximizes the chance for spread outside of affected area by not telling anyone what is going on.  Punish those who alert others to the danger.

 

This time the international community has to ensure that China puts an end to both of these dangerous habits.  They are a very stubborn lot and it won't be easy.  But this will happen again if these practices are allowed to continue.

 

From NY Times 20FEB2020 -

Opinion

Why Did the Coronavirus Outbreak Start in China?

Let’s talk about the cultural causes of this epidemic.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-china-cause.html?smid=url-share

Quote

 

Epidemics, on the other hand, are often societal or political — much like famines are usually man-made, even though droughts occur naturally.

As far as the current outbreak goes, two cultural factors help explain how the natural occurrence of a single virus infecting a single mammal could have cascaded into a global health crisis. And now for the controversial aspect of this argument: Both of those factors are quintessentially, though not uniquely, Chinese.

 

 

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This only acts to undermine legitimacy and credibility of WHO. There is no way anything definitive would have been identified about the China lab 14 months after the event. This is an insult to world, much like when countries who shoot down civilian aircraft deny they do it.

 China is responsible for covering up the epidemic and then far worse, using the cover up to purchase the world supply of masks, gloves, medical equipment and  preparing its industrial factories to take advantage of the rush to purchase medical supplies.   World will not condemn China  because world  needs medical supplies and  relies on China trade. And all this goes on while Chinese still eat bats and other creatures and still abuse the environment and engage in the worst type of factory farming imaginable with hormones and antibiotics that will create super disease.

 

1 hour ago, Natai Beach said:

Which was the big problem.
 

Trump was out calling it the China Flu, politicizing mask wearing, hanging it on Biden for wearing a mask, holding political rallies. And both sides were out protesting. Moronic.
 On track for 700,000 deaths. 
 

China acted quickly and enforced mask wearing and social distancing and locked down hard, less than 5,000 dead total, the USA will having more deaths than 5,000 every two days. 

 

You really believe only 5000 Chinese dead? This is nation which has 1 million+ in concentration camps which they deny and describe as education facilities. China has long history of deceit.

Yes, the USA and EU mismanaged their response and millions are suffering now because of their incompetence. Many world leaders were negligent  for their actions and it doesn't matter their political stripe; Boris, Macron, Putin, Rutte, Trump, Trudeau, Löfven, all are responsible because of their incompetence. |This does not excuse China crime against humanity.

 

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interesting,in hk we saw a massive no of funeral urns ordered across the border as covid grew in the mainland,why?death usually but this was not reflected in the nos the govt reported.whys that?reports reached us in hk before dec of the rigorous procedures that the PRC govt was putting in place.al jazeeras recent docs showed the levels to which reports where shut down,drs arrested etc,how can anyone have a clear picture of events when govt policy is not to allow that?the info avaliable to this mission is only what the govt wishes it to see and weve just been over what they allow to be seen so its nothing but a farce and the conclusions from this mission are zero.how can they reach any conclusion other than theres not creditable info available upon which to base a conclusion,utter pap.

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12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Ben Embarek said China needs now to find evidence that might prove the coronavirus was circulating much earlier than December 2019. He said blood bank samples would be a good place to start.

Hmm, I'm quite confident they will 'find' the necessary evidence.

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The outbreak may be traced back to Oct 2019. China hosted the summer military games in Wuhan. I don't know about other countries but some of the Canadian service personnel that came back from Wuhan had flu like symptoms. Their plane was quarantined. If it was Covid-19 that would explain how it spread so fast throughout the world. The service personnel that competed were stationed in many different provinces and states in their countries. Google it for yourself, it is no coincidence that the games were held in Wuhan and a couple of months later the outbreak had spread all over the world. 

 

The WHO will certainly not bite the hand that feeds them. I doubt they will implicate China.

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15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

DO THE FINDINGS CHANGE THE POLITICS AROUND COVID'S ORIGINS?

my answer is the following question: was  the team of experts moving freely in wuhan? no, according to television images!  chinese officials accompagnied them everywhere  they went and that is why this investigation will be "politicised"! china can only blame itself

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14 hours ago, ezzra said:

The bottom line is that it will take long time, if at all, to find out the truth of the origin of the virus what with China doing all it can to hide, delays, deflect, alter and pull the wool over anyone who tries to get to the what how and where it all started...

What would be interesting is the true count of the deaths in China. I am sure WHO will be back in China next year when it is holiday time as the source is so difficult to find.

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1 hour ago, tifino said:

or, more a matter of who is the majority player paying the WHO? 

What's also interesting is the conflicts of interest of the team members. Daszak and Ben Embarek both have connections to the Wuhan lab or do research in China. If someone displeases the Chinese authorities, they risk to lose access.

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18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Explainer: The WHO's theories about the origins of COVID-19 after Wuhan probe

By David Stanway

 

2021-02-10T074858Z_2_LYNXMPEH190JI_RTROPTP_4_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-WHO-CHINA.JPG

Peter Ben Embarek, Peter Daszak and Marion Koopmans, members of the World Health Organization (WHO) team tasked with investigating the origins of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), pose for pictures at a hotel in Wuhan, Hubei province, China February 10, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song

 

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A team of experts appointed by the World Health Organization (WHO) completed its 28-day mission to the Chinese city of Wuhan this week seeking clues about the origins of COVID-19.

 

The following looks at their findings.

 

WHAT ARE THE MAIN SCENARIOS?

 

Peter Ben Embarek, the WHO's leading animal disease expert, said the team conducted scientific investigations into four main scenarios about how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, spread into humans.

 

In the first, a single person was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 through direct contact with the host species, the horseshoe bat. The virus could have been circulating in humans for a while before making its breakthrough in heavily populated Wuhan.

 

The second scenario, seen as the most likely, involves transmission to humans via an as yet unknown intermediary species. Liang Wannian, an expert with China's National Health Commission, said pangolins were potential candidates but other animals - including mink and even cats - may also be reservoirs.

 

A third possibility is that COVID-19 originated under the first or second scenarios and was then transmitted via cold chain products. Chinese experts have attributed later COVID-19 clusters to imported frozen food and have raised the possibility it might also have caused the Wuhan outbreak.

 

The final scenario is that SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is known to have studied captive coronaviruses. Ben Embarek ruled out the possibility and said it would not be subject to further research. Accidents happen, he said, but it was "very unlikely" in this case.

 

WHEN DID THE OUTBREAK BEGIN?

 

The experts said that while it was unlikely there were large-scale outbreaks in Wuhan or elsewhere in China before December 2019, they do not rule out that it was circulating in other regions.

 

A crossover either directly from bats or from an intermediary species would suggest the transmission to Wuhan could have been facilitated by wildlife trading networks.

 

Marion Koopmans, another member of the expert team, said wildlife on sale in the Huanan seafood market could be traced to regions that contain bat habitats known to harbour viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2.

 

One such region is the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan, but the team is also considering that the first human transmission took place across the border in Laos or Vietnam.

 

WHAT ROLE WAS PLAYED BY HUANAN MARKET?

 

Although the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan was linked to the first case clusters, the initial crossover from animals to humans did not occur there.

 

Liang said that there was still insufficient evidence to determine how the virus entered Huanan, but that it was clear it was circulating elsewhere in Wuhan at the same time.

 

The most likely scenario is that someone carried SARS-CoV-2 into the market, but Ben Embarek also suggested it could have been introduced via a "product", including frozen wild animals known to be susceptible to the virus.

 

DO THE FINDINGS CHANGE THE POLITICS AROUND COVID'S ORIGINS?

 

China has expressed concern that any investigation would be "politicised", and said it would only cooperate if it was clear it would not be expected to take blame for the pandemic.

 

By ruling out the lab leak and accepting that COVID-19 could have originated outside of China, the WHO team has not crossed any of Beijing's lines. China would also be heartened that the WHO team is considering the cold-chain theory. But the findings are unlikely to satisfy those who believe China is culpable and has covered up evidence.

 

WHAT FURTHER RESEARCH IS REQUIRED?

 

Ben Embarek said China needs now to find evidence that might prove the coronavirus was circulating much earlier than December 2019. He said blood bank samples would be a good place to start.

 

Bat communities near Wuhan have been ruled out as a source, and more needs to be done to scour caves in other regions to see if a closer match to SARS-CoV-2 can be found.

 

The animals on sale at the Huanan market also need to be scrutinised further, and the role played by cold chain products in general also needs more research, Ben Embarek said.

 

reuters_logo.jpg

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-02-10
 

I sincerely doubt if the WHO can be trusted in this matter, nor do I trust the Chinese to be open.

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