"We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April" by Dr. Marty Makary, Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine

[Freeduhdum]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I thought of this myself and I'm not a medical professional.

Obviously the known reported numbers of covid infections in the US is massively under the actual numbers. Nobody knows how many more but I assume at least double. 

So add that number to the now more rapid vaccination program and its obvious good progress towards herd immunity is being made.

But I think making specific date predictions is very foolish and April sounds very optimistic.

"I'm not a medical professional" 
"Nobody knows how many"

"But I think making specific date predictions"

Enough said Jingthing... ????

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, Freeduhdum said:

"I'm not a medical professional" 
"Nobody knows how many"

"But I think making specific date predictions"

Enough said Jingthing... ????

Cheap personal insult.  Bye.

[Danderman123]

9 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

I think that the hyperbolic response to a virus that is no more deadly than the flu has been the greatest misdirection in the history of humanity. I know some people named Karen by the way. I have nothing against them. I was trapped in another country for 6 months separated from my family and had to rely on the charity of others to survive. That made me more upset than masks at Walmart.

There are 500,000 in America who would argue that COVID-19 is more deadly than the flu, but they are dead. From COVID-19.

[Nout]

My pal, one of a few who got ronaded said it was terrible and much worse than any flu he had ever had.

[JerseytoBKK]

8 hours ago, Captain Monday said:

I believe the pandemic will last longer and kill more without vacination. Yes governments are pushing vaccination. Many people I talk to resist the idea, but they can't give one good reason not to take an injection other than it seems they do not want the government telling them what to do. These are the same people who get in cars, take colonoscopy exams, eat processed food and do all sorts of other things that have some vague risk.

 

The Spanish flu infected everyone it was going to get eventually. Everyone who did not survive the pandemic died of course but the main cause was secondary infection. Due crowded conditions, bad sanitation and bad medical care, even exposure to long term cold and damp. My understanding is it mutated to a much less lethal strain that remains today as H1N1 variants.

Here's one reason: there isn't any US officially approved vaccine against Covid. Pfizer and Moderna only have emergency use authorization which is much different from official approval.

 

From the cdc.gov website: "The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine is an unapproved vaccine that may prevent COVID-19. There is no FDA-approved vaccine to prevent COVID-19."

 

"The FDA has authorized the emergency use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 16 years of age and older under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)." 

 

I just got my first Pfizer jab last Monday, but I'm OK with being a test subject. No one knows if there will be any long term ramifications. So far only side effect was a sore arm that occurred 8 hours after the jab and it went away completely about 36 hours later. I will get the 2nd jab in 15 days because I love to travel and understand these are the new rules. Not everyone is willing to risk their health in pursuit of what they enjoy.

[Patong2021]

On 2/19/2021 at 10:34 PM, Kelsall said:

There is reason for hope.

 

 

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

 

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Another OPINION piece taken out of context. The same people who were calling Covid19 a hoax or saying it was nothing to be concerned about, will grab on to this.

 

The reason cases have decreased were due to;

- social distancing and mask wearing increased. For all the lunatics in the USA who would not participate, there were many more who did. It is no surprise that the US states with lowest compliance to such responsible measures have the highest infection rates.  And someone will come along and say, but Florida is doing so well. The sad reality, is that Florida is not testing the at risk poor community. Testing is available for the retirement communities and the wealthy. Callifornia testing focused on the poor and racialized communities. The doctor acknowledges the lack of testing of  at risk communities.

 

- The author is an advocate of vaccination, something that those who are going to see only "herd immunity" will ignore. He makes a statement that is already followed in many countries;

"....I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available."

Yes, the Pfizer and Moderna  vaccines will provide in excess of 80% protection after 1 dose. This is why some countries (UK,  Canada) were doing one dose in as many people as possible. They also went after the most at risk groups. It makes a big difference when the old people home  residents and staff are vaccinated.

 

I did however laugh at the improper conclusion;

"But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases."

- UK  is seeing decline because of its lockdown and its very good vaccination campaign. It protected its most  vulnerable.

Brazil is not seeing any significant  decrease in new infections using its 7 day infection average;

1-Dec-2020: 38,297

1-jan-2021: 36,063

1-Feb--2021: 50,009

15--feb-2021: 48,867

 

- South Africa only recently introduced enhanced physical distancing, obligatory mask wearing and draconian   lockdown regulations. Those measures have had a pronounced impact on transmission. why not give credit to these measures?

 

Herd immunity, has been discussed and explained so many times, and even the  doctor quoted is referring  in the context of a recent infection. He has no idea if  prior infection will offer protection for more than 90 days or 365 days. If we can get coronavirus cold many times despite prior infections, that tells us something does it not?  

 

[heybruce]

On 2/20/2021 at 8:33 AM, Freeduhdum said:

Likely not enough have been vaccinated to achieve vaccinated acquired herd immunity and current estimates are that the covid vaccine provides about 3 months of protection, maybe up to one year. Thus any declines in covid cases occurring this month would have to be due to Natural immunity. Another important point, achieving vaccine acquired herd immunity is not likely to occur ever if the vaccine requires a booster shot at some point between 3-12 months. And this would be a booster for a known strain. Due to the current belief that SARC COV2 will have many evolving variants/strains, this would make achieving herd immunity by vaccination alone difficult. 

https://www.wbrc.com/2021/02/12/how-long-is-cdc-estimating-covid-vaccine-protection-will-last/

 

17 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

Question: How did that graph show the sudden decline with no vaccines back then ?

It's really quite simple:

 

In November and December people traveled and participated in many family super spreader events.  The infection rate shot up in the weeks after. 

 

The travel and family gatherings dropped significantly after December.  Infection rates dropped, but that didn't show up in the statistics until a few weeks after December.

 

Limited herd immunity may have played some part, but it is unlikely it played a major role in the drop.  If and when enough people get vaccinated that will change.

[scorecard]

10 hours ago, Nout said:

My pal, one of a few who got ronaded said it was terrible and much worse than any flu he had ever had.

...ronaded...?

[4MyEgo]

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

 

It's really quite simple:

 

In November and December people traveled and participated in many family super spreader events.  The infection rate shot up in the weeks after. 

 

The travel and family gatherings dropped significantly after December.  Infection rates dropped, but that didn't show up in the statistics until a few weeks after December.

 

Limited herd immunity may have played some part, but it is unlikely it played a major role in the drop.  If and when enough people get vaccinated that will change.

 

Um, the graph I was referring to on the first page, 2nd post is dated 1918-1919, hence the question, why did it come down so much without vaccinations as they didn't have any back in those days.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

Um, the graph I was referring to on the first page, 2nd post is dated 1918-1919, hence the question, why did it come down so much without vaccinations as they didn't have any back in those days.

Most likely because the R(0) factor was much higher.

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Most likely because the R(0) factor was much higher.

There is no consensus for how to measure it. Much of the underlying math relies, by necessity, on educated guesses and on human factors that can change unpredictably.

[Freeduhdum]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

 

It's really quite simple:

 

In November and December people traveled and participated in many family super spreader events.  The infection rate shot up in the weeks after. 

 

The travel and family gatherings dropped significantly after December.  Infection rates dropped, but that didn't show up in the statistics until a few weeks after December.

 

Limited herd immunity may have played some part, but it is unlikely it played a major role in the drop.  If and when enough people get vaccinated that will change.

This entire opinion piece is predicated on testing... and gets even simpler, all depends on how many, what locations etc. If you test you get cases, if you don't test you don't get cases. 

[cormanr7]

11 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

He has no idea if  prior infection will offer protection for more than 90 days or 365 days. If we can get coronavirus cold many times despite prior infections, that tells us something does it not?  

This is a hotly contested topic and nobody knows for sure. A recent piece of research suggests that the magnitude of an infection-induced immune response varies a lot between individuals but lasted for at least 5-8 months. This study is a bit more encompassing than many others and does not focus on one part of the immune system like IgG or IgA but also measures various types of T-cells, etc.: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063

Note that this is an in vitro,  small study conducted in the US. 

[placeholder]

10 hours ago, Freeduhdum said:

This entire opinion piece is predicated on testing... and gets even simpler, all depends on how many, what locations etc. If you test you get cases, if you don't test you don't get cases. 

Not so. The results of the testing is based on the percentage of positives, not how many tests were given. So if  500 are tested and a total of 75 are positive and 5000 are tested and 500 are positive, the results of the former would should a greater prevalence of infection.

[Freeduhdum]

24 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Not so. The results of the testing is based on the percentage of positives, not how many tests were given. So if  500 are tested and a total of 75 are positive and 5000 are tested and 500 are positive, the results of the former would should a greater prevalence of infection.

More tests more "cases" less tests less "cases... 

[placeholder]

Just now, Freeduhdum said:

More tests more "cases" less tests less "cases... 

You and a certain ex president don't seem to understand that when public health services make their evaluations of whether the prevalence in the population is decreasing or increasing, it's based on percentages of positives found in the samples, not gross totals.

[placeholder]

On 2/21/2021 at 10:28 AM, canuckamuck said:

I think that the hyperbolic response to a virus that is no more deadly than the flu has been the greatest misdirection in the history of humanity. I know some people named Karen by the way. I have nothing against them. I was trapped in another country for 6 months separated from my family and had to rely on the charity of others to survive. That made me more upset than masks at Walmart.

Stop making things up. The virus has a far higher mortality rate than does any flu since the Spanish flu. The excess mortality figures from the CDC establish that conclusively.

[placeholder]

On 2/21/2021 at 1:29 PM, 4MyEgo said:

 

Not at all, I was merely asking the a question, i.e. how did these people survive after one year, herd immunity ?

 

Not an anti-vax at all, and I am sure that herd immunity will be reached within a year for some countries if not sooner, but the question is, would we reach herd immunity as they did with the Spanish Flu, e.g. within a year from what I have read without the vaccines ?

 

Pushing vaccines is one thing, but one also has to look back at past history for another thing, the Spanish Flu was far more deadly than this Coronavirus so we can't really compare one to the other, but yet they seemed to have reached herd immunity within a year without a vaccine, i.e. if I am reading the information I have read correctly.

Another possibility is less widespread enforcement of social distancing. Those cities that did enforce it had far fewer fatalities than those that failed to react quickly.

 

[cdemundo]

On 2/20/2021 at 5:33 AM, Freeduhdum said:

Likely not enough have been vaccinated to achieve vaccinated acquired herd immunity and current estimates are that the covid vaccine provides about 3 months of protection, maybe up to one year. Thus any declines in covid cases occurring this month would have to be due to Natural immunity.

Seems likely that the number of vaccinations is too few as you say.

In the states they are saying perhaps due to behavioral changes, more mask-wearing and social distancing and hand washing.

I wonder if there have really been behavioral changes at this point, seems like plenty of people who reject that advice and are not changing behavior.

I hope it is naturally acquired immunity as that does not require compliance by a large part of the population.

Good news is good news whatever the cause/explanation.

[Freeduhdum]

On 2/22/2021 at 9:37 PM, placeholder said:

You and a certain ex president don't seem to understand that when public health services make their evaluations of whether the prevalence in the population is decreasing or increasing, it's based on percentages of positives found in the samples, not gross totals.

Your paragraphs remind me of those grammar exams I use to take in primary school. ????

[placeholder]

45 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

Your paragraphs remind me of those grammar exams I use to take in primary school. ????

Sadly, back in those days, dyslexia was not yet a pedagogically recognized syndrome.