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"We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April" by Dr. Marty Makary, Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine


Kelsall

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There is reason for hope.

 

 

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

 

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

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One can only hope for a ray of light, amid the Zombie Apocalypse. The numbers do seem to be falling in Covid central, the US. They have managed to get it down to under 3,000 deaths per day. What an accomplishment. However, at over 22 million active cases worldwide, we have a long ways to go.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

Still a lot to research, analyze and form potential conclusions.

 

We all want a miracle.

 

Let's keep working the basics, roll out vaccinations and see where we are in September.

 

 

a.jpg

Very positive data coming out about asymptomatic transmission after vaccination

We have never had mass vaccine rolled out DURING a pandemic

"It takes a special kind of pessimism to say vaccination does not decrease transmission". -Dr. Monica Gandhi

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-02-19/covid-19-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-viral-load-drops-first-dose/13156116

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Kelsall said:

There is reason for hope.

 

 

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

 

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

From your link:

 

"But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity."

 

I find that statement puzzling.  Infections peaked and began to decline after holiday travel ended.  That can be explained by far fewer people engaging in high risk social activities after the first of the year.  The 77% decline has us back to the weekly infection rate of October, which was pretty high.  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

 

I'll be happy if herd immunity is kicking in this early, but I'll keep masking and social distancing until the numbers come down further and more doctors and scientist agree the threat has passed.

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Dr. Makary has enlistened Foxnews and he has a distinct anti-CDC, anti-Govt (Dem) stance. This does not  mean that he is wrong but readers/listeners beware, he has a definite agenda (like everyone).  Now let's pick a country where there is no effect of vaccination yet, Portugal, and compare the daily cases/million people vs the USA. So the cases in Portugal actually decrease much faster than in the US (no wonder given the lax lockdown measures in the latter). See picture below. Is this all due to herd immunity? The cumulative confirmed COVID cases in Portugal and USA vs the total population are (data from ourworldindata) are 8% and 9%, respectively. So not much difference. The real number of infections (many asymptotic or people who do not go for a test intentionally) is thought be 3-4 times higher, this estimated from antibody testing. In the UK, for instance, 1 in 5 is thought to have had COVID 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/16february2021. In the US the number of estimated people who have had COVID was estimated at 83 million (confirmed 27 million) on Feb 09th, 2021.https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/02/09/cdc-estimates-83-million-us-covid-infections-has-major-implications-15330. I could not find data for Portugal but if we take a ratio of 4 for estimated/confirmed cases, about 24% of the population in Portugal would have had COVID, so far from herd immunity. So cases can go down rapidly by 'hard' lockdowns.

How will it look in April in the US: depends on how many persons have been vaccinated by then, how many are immune due to previous infection, how much overlap there is and whether there new mutants spread widely. With ca 330 million people overall in the USA, an immunity coverage of 70-80% would mean 230-260 million need to be immune (unless estimates of coverage required are completely wrong).

 

coronavirus-data-explorer (2).png

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8 hours ago, Kelsall said:

There is reason for hope.

 

 

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

 

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

A piece from a business site that is full of 'observation' and 'private talks with medics' okaaaaay

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4 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Herd is definitely an appropriate term when it comes to describing the absurdity of the last 12 months.

Let me guess, are you one of those 'Karens" we can watch on Youtube throwing a hissy fit because of the mask requirement in your favorite Walmart?

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Likely not enough have been vaccinated to achieve vaccinated acquired herd immunity and current estimates are that the covid vaccine provides about 3 months of protection, maybe up to one year. Thus any declines in covid cases occurring this month would have to be due to Natural immunity. Another important point, achieving vaccine acquired herd immunity is not likely to occur ever if the vaccine requires a booster shot at some point between 3-12 months. And this would be a booster for a known strain. Due to the current belief that SARC COV2 will have many evolving variants/strains, this would make achieving herd immunity by vaccination alone difficult. 

https://www.wbrc.com/2021/02/12/how-long-is-cdc-estimating-covid-vaccine-protection-will-last/

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15 hours ago, Phoenix Rising said:

Let me guess, are you one of those 'Karens" we can watch on Youtube throwing a hissy fit because of the mask requirement in your favorite Walmart?

I think that the hyperbolic response to a virus that is no more deadly than the flu has been the greatest misdirection in the history of humanity. I know some people named Karen by the way. I have nothing against them. I was trapped in another country for 6 months separated from my family and had to rely on the charity of others to survive. That made me more upset than masks at Walmart.

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On 2/20/2021 at 10:34 AM, Kelsall said:

There is reason for hope.

 

 

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

 

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

they changed the standard for what is a positive test.  makes it easy to have less now if the standards are back to norms for virus testings of all other viruses.

I'm sure this doctor will have to have his statement retracted in the near future though.

This is the "HOPE" portion of news cycle.  
Soon DOOM will be repeated for whatever the government purposes needs enacted.  I''d wage bet on a "new strain" that will require you get a new vaccination.

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22 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

Still a lot to research, analyze and form potential conclusions.

 

We all want a miracle.

 

Let's keep working the basics, roll out vaccinations and see where we are in September.

 

 

a.jpg

 

Question: How did that graph show the sudden decline with no vaccines back then ?

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1 hour ago, canuckamuck said:

I think that the hyperbolic response to a virus that is no more deadly than the flu has been the greatest misdirection in the history of humanity. I know some people named Karen by the way. I have nothing against them. I was trapped in another country for 6 months separated from my family and had to rely on the charity of others to survive. That made me more upset than masks at Walmart.

You think wrong.

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17 hours ago, cormanr7 said:

Dr. Makary has enlistened Foxnews and he has a distinct anti-CDC, anti-Govt (Dem) stance. This does not  mean that he is wrong but readers/listeners beware, he has a definite agenda (like everyone).  Now let's pick a country where there is no effect of vaccination yet, Portugal, and compare the daily cases/million people vs the USA. So the cases in Portugal actually decrease much faster than in the US (no wonder given the lax lockdown measures in the latter). See picture below. Is this all due to herd immunity? The cumulative confirmed COVID cases in Portugal and USA vs the total population are (data from ourworldindata) are 8% and 9%, respectively. So not much difference. The real number of infections (many asymptotic or people who do not go for a test intentionally) is thought be 3-4 times higher, this estimated from antibody testing. In the UK, for instance, 1 in 5 is thought to have had COVID 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/16february2021. In the US the number of estimated people who have had COVID was estimated at 83 million (confirmed 27 million) on Feb 09th, 2021.https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/02/09/cdc-estimates-83-million-us-covid-infections-has-major-implications-15330. I could not find data for Portugal but if we take a ratio of 4 for estimated/confirmed cases, about 24% of the population in Portugal would have had COVID, so far from herd immunity. So cases can go down rapidly by 'hard' lockdowns.

How will it look in April in the US: depends on how many persons have been vaccinated by then, how many are immune due to previous infection, how much overlap there is and whether there new mutants spread widely. With ca 330 million people overall in the USA, an immunity coverage of 70-80% would mean 230-260 million need to be immune (unless estimates of coverage required are completely wrong).

 

coronavirus-data-explorer (2).png

 

For sure there is always a big difference between recorded and true cases. 3 to 1 seems high until you look at past pandemics where even estimates vary by a factor of 3. Another interesting point from the original CDC estimate is  that the difference is not due to asymptomatic cases. In fact, they estimate true asymptomatic cases at 15%.

 

"That means about 85% of infections result in symptoms and only 15% are asymptomatic."

 

 

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1 hour ago, canuckamuck said:

I think that the hyperbolic response to a virus that is no more deadly than the flu has been the greatest misdirection in the history of humanity.

Factually wrong.....again:

 

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows#1

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext

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1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

Question: How did that graph show the sudden decline with no vaccines back then ?

We have never rolled out vaccination during a pandemic.

Are you saying don't vaccinate and do another year or two with perhaps another 

million deaths in the US alone?

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21 minutes ago, Captain Monday said:

We have never rolled out vaccination during a pandemic.

Are you saying don't vaccinate and do another year or two with perhaps another 

million deaths in the US alone?

 

Not at all, I was merely asking the a question, i.e. how did these people survive after one year, herd immunity ?

 

Not an anti-vax at all, and I am sure that herd immunity will be reached within a year for some countries if not sooner, but the question is, would we reach herd immunity as they did with the Spanish Flu, e.g. within a year from what I have read without the vaccines ?

 

Pushing vaccines is one thing, but one also has to look back at past history for another thing, the Spanish Flu was far more deadly than this Coronavirus so we can't really compare one to the other, but yet they seemed to have reached herd immunity within a year without a vaccine, i.e. if I am reading the information I have read correctly.

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I thought of this myself and I'm not a medical professional.

Obviously the known reported numbers of covid infections in the US is massively under the actual numbers. Nobody knows how many more but I assume at least double. 

So add that number to the now more rapid vaccination program and its obvious good progress towards herd immunity is being made.

But I think making specific date predictions is very foolish and April sounds very optimistic.

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42 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

Not at all, I was merely asking the a question, i.e. how did these people survive after one year, herd immunity ?

 

Not an anti-vax at all, and I am sure that herd immunity will be reached within a year for some countries if not sooner, but the question is, would we reach herd immunity as they did with the Spanish Flu, e.g. within a year from what I have read without the vaccines ?

 

Pushing vaccines is one thing, but one also has to look back at past history for another thing, the Spanish Flu was far more deadly than this Coronavirus so we can't really compare one to the other, but yet they seemed to have reached herd immunity within a year without a vaccine, i.e. if I am reading the information I have read correctly.

I believe the pandemic will last longer and kill more without vacination. Yes governments are pushing vaccination. Many people I talk to resist the idea, but they can't give one good reason not to take an injection other than it seems they do not want the government telling them what to do. These are the same people who get in cars, take colonoscopy exams, eat processed food and do all sorts of other things that have some vague risk.

 

The Spanish flu infected everyone it was going to get eventually. Everyone who did not survive the pandemic died of course but the main cause was secondary infection. Due crowded conditions, bad sanitation and bad medical care, even exposure to long term cold and damp. My understanding is it mutated to a much less lethal strain that remains today as H1N1 variants.

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2 minutes ago, Captain Monday said:

Many people I talk to resist the idea, but they cant give one good reason not to take an injection other than it seems they do not want the government telling them what to do. These are the same people who get in cars, take colonoscopy exams, eat processed food and do all sorts of other things that have some vague risk.

 

Fact of the matter I believe is people don't trust governments anymore because they have lied and covered up things many times over, only themselves to blame, past and present for not being honest with their voters.

 

At the end of the day it boils down to being educated and informed, and having a choice, suffice to say if someone doesn't want to take the vaccine, I am not going to get upset about it, each to their own, we are born, we live and we die, we can't hold others accountable for their actions.

 

Do what's best for you if your comfortable with it and don't worry or try to control others, not saying you are, but governments might try to mandate the vaccines which in my opinion would be a mistake.

 

For the moment I will continue with my flu and Pneumonia shots until I am comfortable with more information coming out from people being vaccinated, at the moment, I am not there, so will wait, social distance, wear a face mask and keep washing my hands as if to say, this is what we would do if there wasn't a vaccine, regardless that there is, it's all about perception and choice at the end of the day, and if I end up dying from COVID then that was my undoing, not anyone else's.  

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47 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

Fact of the matter I believe is people don't trust governments anymore because they have lied and covered up things many times over, only themselves to blame, past and present for not being honest with their voters.

 

At the end of the day it boils down to being educated and informed, and having a choice, suffice to say if someone doesn't want to take the vaccine, I am not going to get upset about it, each to their own, we are born, we live and we die, we can't hold others accountable for their actions.

 

Do what's best for you if your comfortable with it and don't worry or try to control others, not saying you are, but governments might try to mandate the vaccines which in my opinion would be a mistake.

 

For the moment I will continue with my flu and Pneumonia shots until I am comfortable with more information coming out from people being vaccinated, at the moment, I am not there, so will wait, social distance, wear a face mask and keep washing my hands as if to say, this is what we would do if there wasn't a vaccine, regardless that there is, it's all about perception and choice at the end of the day, and if I end up dying from COVID then that was my undoing, not anyone else's.  

Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Flu ,Pneumonia is  OK but you appear to resist the jab because governments lie?

What does your Doctor recommend regarding covid-19 vaccination?

How could your government possibly benefit covertly by spending billions to give

you a jab? How could it possibly hurt you? 

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2 hours ago, Captain Monday said:

Fact of the matter I believe is people don't trust governments anymore because they have lied and covered up things many times over, only themselves to blame, past and present for not being honest with their voters.

 

My words above, at no time did I say I don't trust governments, fact !

 

Your words below.

 

2 hours ago, Captain Monday said:

Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Flu ,Pneumonia is  OK but you appear to resist the jab because governments lie?

What does your Doctor recommend regarding covid-19 vaccination?

How could your government possibly benefit covertly by spending billions to give

you a jab? How could it possibly hurt you? 

 

Your point ?

 

Flu, Pneumonia vaccines have been tried and tested over decades, I didn't say I am resisting the jab because governments lie.

 

I haven't asked my doctor, I do my own research and then when ready will ask the Dr for their opinion, doesn't mean I will go their way, it is up to me.

 

Wouldn't know how governments possibly benefit, spending billions, more like hundreds of billions, in my opinion is irresponsible, who is going to pay it back, and emergency decree were supposed to be put in place for short periods of time, here we are all around the world 365 days longer, now that sounds like control to me, but that's another discussion.

 

The jab is not a guarantee, the same as COVID, e.g. that I will get it, like any other contagious virus, you are making it sound like the rest, it's the only way out, it's not, think about that, I don't travel to work on buses/trains, I don't mix with big crowds, I do my shopping early, I have a car that I travel in, I wear a mask, I wash my hands frequently, I social distance, now that in itself should protect me for a while, i.e. until I feel comfortable enough to choice an "experimental vaccine" that I feel has been tested enough for me to have it, i.e. if I feel like I should take it.

 

I know people who have not been vaccinated for the measles and many other viruses, they are approaching 60 and have survived all of these years without vaccines, they are anti-vaxers, I am not, however, like I gave my opinion as to what reasons others don't trust governments, doesn't mean I won't get the vaccine, as for me trusting governments, well, again, that is another discussion, suffice to say everyone believed George W Bush Junior that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, again, another discussion. 

 

Over and out 🤟

 

 

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4 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

My words above, at no time did I say I don't trust governments, fact !

 

Your words below.

 

 

Your point ?

 

Flu, Pneumonia vaccines have been tried and tested over decades, I didn't say I am resisting the jab because governments lie.

 

I haven't asked my doctor, I do my own research and then when ready will ask the Dr for their opinion, doesn't mean I will go their way, it is up to me.

 

Wouldn't know how governments possibly benefit, spending billions, more like hundreds of billions, in my opinion is irresponsible, who is going to pay it back, and emergency decree were supposed to be put in place for short periods of time, here we are all around the world 365 days longer, now that sounds like control to me, but that's another discussion.

 

The jab is not a guarantee, the same as COVID, e.g. that I will get it, like any other contagious virus, you are making it sound like the rest, it's the only way out, it's not, think about that, I don't travel to work on buses/trains, I don't mix with big crowds, I do my shopping early, I have a car that I travel in, I wear a mask, I wash my hands frequently, I social distance, now that in itself should protect me for a while, i.e. until I feel comfortable enough to choice an "experimental vaccine" that I feel has been tested enough for me to have it, i.e. if I feel like I should take it.

 

I know people who have not been vaccinated for the measles and many other viruses, they are approaching 60 and have survived all of these years without vaccines, they are anti-vaxers, I am not, however, like I gave my opinion as to what reasons others don't trust governments, doesn't mean I won't get the vaccine, as for me trusting governments, well, again, that is another discussion, suffice to say everyone believed George W Bush Junior that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, again, another discussion. 

 

Over and out 🤟

 

 

My advice to you then would be,  since their is no legitimate downside, take the jab ASAP. It is jut a little pin-<deleted>. You and me might be largely immune any way but by vaccinating could reduce our viral load, deep in our throats and nasal sinuses thus reducing the chance to spread, to those who are weaker against the SarsCov2 -19 virus.

 

The people who were not vaccinated against meseles might have spread it. without coming down with symptoms. I had a Japanese friend in about 2009 hospitalized for measles. She was 28 at the time. I asked her, no vax. Deeply shocked I looked into it Japan is somewhat anti-vax due to fairly recent issues. School children were mass vaccinated up into in the 1970s. WITH THE SAME NEEDLE . Many got hepatitis. Then in the early aids era people got hiv from non tested blood products just because companies  tried to cost cut!

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