Myanmar's neighbour Thailand unlikely to toughen stance on coup

[snoop1130]

People sit near a Myanmar border post as people flee the violence in the country to receive aid at the Thai border village of Mae Sam Laep, Mae Hong Son province, Thailand March 30, 2021. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand has slightly hardened its language on Myanmar by saying it is "gravely concerned" about escalating bloodshed since a Feb. 1 coup, but close military ties and fears of a flood of refugees mean it is unlikely to go further, analysts say.

 

That leaves Thailand out of step with some members of the 10-strong Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as they seek to ramp up pressure on the junta, but could also position it as a possible mediator.

 

"(Thailand’s position) is difficult, but I think there is an opportunity because we’ve become an important partner," Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, told Reuters.

 

The closeness of the Thai and Myanmar armies was underscored by a request from Myanmar's junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, to Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to "support democracy" within days of ousting elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

 

Prayuth, who voiced that support, had himself seized power in a 2014 coup when army chief, before taking on his current civilian role in 2019 and rejecting opposition accusations that the vote was manipulated.

 

The personal relationship began much earlier: within armies that appear to have long put behind them the historic rivalry between countries that used to be known as Burma and Siam.

 

In 2018, Min Aung Hlaing was awarded Thailand's King Grand Cross of the Most Exalted Order of the White Elephant "in honour of the support he has shown for the Thai military," the Bangkok Post said at the time.

 

BROTHERHOOD

 

"For them, the military brotherhood is very, very important," said Lalita Hingkanonta, a history professor at Thailand's Kasetsart University.

 

"I don't think that the escalation of violence will change the decision of the Thai government to accept more refugees...I think they just want to be friends with Myanmar more."

 

Thailand potentially has more at stake in Myanmar than any other member of ASEAN, as it shares a 2,400-km (1,500-mile) border that is also Myanmar's longest with any neighbour.

 

The geographical position, and a tradition of cautious diplomacy have been reasons for its particular care in remarks on the coup - only toughening its wording slightly after the civilian death toll topped 500 in Myanmar's crackdown on anti-coup protesters.

 

Thailand's wording has still been much milder than that of ASEAN democracies Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.

 

The border risks were highlighted by a surge of several thousand refugees this week fleeing bombing by Myanmar's forces of ethnic Karen rebels, an exodus reminiscent of the tens of thousands who fled Myanmar's wars in previous decades.

 

Although Thailand denied that the latest refugees were being pushed back, they complained of having been blocked by Thai border guards, while a local Thai official told a meeting that it was official policy to bar their entry.

 

GESTURES

 

While Thailand might come under diplomatic pressure to accept refugees or take a tougher stance, Lalita said Prayuth's government was unlikely to be moved.

 

"They would do something to respond to the international pressure, they would do some small things, just to show that, hey, we are responding very well to your concern. But that's it."

 

Business links are also strong.

 

Foreign direct investment by Thai businesses ranks behind only China and Singapore, with more than $11 billion approved since 1988.

 

Annual cross-border trade stood at more than $9 billion in 2019 and many Thai businesses rely on Myanmar migrant workers - who officially number 1.6 million.

 

Thailand matters even more for Myanmar, accounting for nearly a quarter of exports in 2019, mostly natural gas.

 

But Thailand was unlikely to use its potential economic leverage with any sanctions on trade, said Piti Srisangnam, of the ASEAN Studies Center at Chulalongkorn University.

 

He suggested Thailand might best pursue diplomacy behind the scenes, to try to encourage Myanmar's generals to curb violence and launch talks with ousted civilians now locked up or branded as traitors.

 

"If you have one friend you've known for a very long time, and one day he commits murder, it doesn't mean you won't be friends with him, right?" he said.

 

"You are still friends, but the best thing is to talk to him, to show that the thing he has done is very wrong."

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-04-02

 

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[YetAnother]

2 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

but close military ties

band of brothers; or at least 'think-alikers'

[Justgrazing]

Bit like pot calling the kettle really so no surprise the Brotherhood of Gen's abide by their code of omerta and say little substantive that goes anywhere near condemnatory .. 

Edited April 2, 2021 by Justgrazing
Sp

[trainman34014]

1 hour ago, YetAnother said:

band of brothers; or at least 'think-alikers'

Band of Bullies and Thieves more like !

[internationalism]

thailand does support military coup in myanmar.

 

as the first country it embraced junta by inviting it's representative, the foreign minister, to visit bangkok at don muang airport a month ago. Thai foreign ministry was denying this visit, until foreign press published some pix.

 

despite closed borders thai junta supplied 700 rice sacks (35 tonns) to myanmar army, prayuth calling it later a routine operation and further "humanitarian aid".

 

thai military attache has attended military parade, together with another 11 foreign delegates - the very same day 114 people were murdered.

 

the last monday thai military turned back 2k karen refugees, who were fleeing airplane bombings. Only to 7 of them emergency treatment was offered, lightly wounded had to return without help. The next day army laid barb wire.

 

military rule in myanmar means more drugs being diverted into thai market, which is partly controlled by police and army

[connda]

Thailand is not a signatory to the Geneva Convention Protocols listed below.  Specifically note Protocol II.  Thailand's not on board with that one or any of the others.  So therein lies the hard-**s response to the Myanmar refugee crises.  It's Thailand for Thais and everyone else can take a hike.  Who says Buddhism has to be compassionate.  These folk don't practice compassion.  They give merit to gain "stuff."  Suffering people just have bad karma in most Thai minds.  So suffering refugees facing genocide?  A typical Thai Buddhist will just say it's their own fault from a bad past live.  Pretty sad.  Both inhumane and inhuman imho.

Geneva Convention Protocols that Thailand is not a signatory of:
Protocol I (1977) relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts
    Protocol II (1977) relating to the Protection of Victims of Non-International Armed Conflicts
    Protocol III (2005) relating to the Adoption of an Additional Distinctive Emblem.

[JamieM]

Yeh and also they wouldn't get involved when their supreme leader China has given a nod and a wink to the military in Myanmar.

[hotchilli]

17 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

"(Thailand’s position) is difficult,

One dictator cannot call another one the same as it would be a reflection of what they have done themselves.

[hansnl]

15 hours ago, JamieM said:

Yeh and also they wouldn't get involved when their supreme leader China has given a nod and a wink to the military in Myanmar.

Of course the rumours of Chinese involvement are pure lies aimed by the west at the peace loving Chinese government.

 

[brianthainess]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

"If you have one friend you've known for a very long time, and one day he commits murder, it doesn't mean you won't be friends with him, right?" he said.

Murder is murder; this is just plain execution of men, women and children and no one would ever be a friend again for these evil inhumane deeds, but I'm not a power hungry general.