Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

[metisdead]

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[Dart12]

14 hours ago, connda said:

Look like concentration camps. Being Thailand they'll even have crematoriums near-by.   If you popped a false positive going in, you'll definitely pop Covid positive on the way out.  In the meantime, aren't the special people in Prayut's cabinet who popped positive at Thong Lor all allowed to stay at home?

yes.  what is for thee is not for me

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14 hours ago, connda said:

Look like concentration camps. Being Thailand they'll even have crematoriums near-by.   If you popped a false positive going in, you'll definitely pop Covid positive on the way out.  In the meantime, aren't the special people in Prayut's cabinet who popped positive at Thong Lor all allowed to stay at home?

"concentration camps"? really? Looks like we have here an instance of a variation of Godwin's law.

Edited April 13, 2021 by placeholder

[Dart12]

12 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

The nearly 3 million who have died might not agree with you on that.

Macro world data shows there was no statistical change in deaths from years prior, jumping from 55.5 million in 2019 to 56 milion deaths in 2020.

aka...meaning there were not an ADDITIONAL 3 million deaths on top of the norm. 

Factoring in yearly population growth from past years, the death total was right in sync with the average of all typical years.

And last year, population even INCREASED by another 200,000,000.

Mother nature was doing her business as usual, but not on any mad rampage wiping out scores of additional people.

And Since humans are the only species on earth that aren't in sync with the natural order of things, we are more of a cancer than a helping organ to earth...

As you suggest,  I don't doubt one day mother earth will do her version of a forest fire with the rate of our population growth,  but it wasn't last year.



 

[freebyrd]

22 hours ago, Smilermike said:

How long has Thailand known about Covid? And yet they still cannot start a national vaccine roll out until October. What the hell are they doing ? Typical thai way. Turn your head away so you cant see it.

Hmm interesting - here in Cambodia, a place that many on this forum have in the past referred to as a backward dump, I went for my vaccine last week and my 38 year old Khmer wife had hers yesterday. 

Edited April 13, 2021 by freebyrd
Typo

[placeholder]

30 minutes ago, Dart12 said:

Macro world data shows there was no statistical change in deaths from years prior, jumping from 55.5 million in 2019 to 56 milion deaths in 2020.

aka...meaning there were not an ADDITIONAL 3 million deaths on top of the norm. 

Factoring in yearly population growth from past years, the death total was right in sync with the average of all typical years.

And last year, population even INCREASED by another 200,000,000.

Mother nature was doing her business as usual, but not on any mad rampage wiping out scores of additional people.

And Since humans are the only species on earth that aren't in sync with the natural order of things, we are more of a cancer than a helping organ to earth...

As you suggest,  I don't doubt one day mother earth will do her version of a forest fire with the rate of our population growth,  but it wasn't last year.



 

Got a source for your falsehoods?

[Nanaplaza666]

22 hours ago, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

You can't rid any country of covid , it's here to stay like the flu so get used to it . The only way to go is to accept it and live with it . 

[berrec]

17 hours ago, connda said:

A team led by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College forcasted 500,000 Covid deaths in the UK based on computer models.  Ok.

You have to be careful with "computer models" as most reflect the GIGO paradigm (garbage in, garbage out). 

When I hear "experts" making these predictions I just wonder what they hope to gain.  Spread fear to encourage compliance?  Maybe effective but unethical.  What happens when the numbers don't materialize?  Then the public loses faith in the "experts."  Present the public with the most likely results from the computer modeling without crying "Wolf." Then the "experts" don't end up looking like idiots.
So if the numbers go up, they excoriate the public for not abiding by "preventive measures.  If the number go lower they they'll laud the public for taking "preventive measures."  Whether the public did or not is irrelevant.  Either way the pat themselves on the back for great computer modeling and will take all the credit if the  numbers go down, and will assign blame to the public if they go up.
Heck - they can't lose.   Promotions and raises for all.

Bazinga, computer models; garbage in garbage out!

 

Recall all the climate change models that have been debunked.

 

Correlation does not imply causation. 

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, Dart12 said:

Macro world data shows there was no statistical change in deaths from years prior, jumping from 55.5 million in 2019 to 56 milion deaths in 2020.

aka...meaning there were not an ADDITIONAL 3 million deaths on top of the norm. 

Factoring in yearly population growth from past years, the death total was right in sync with the average of all typical years.

And last year, population even INCREASED by another 200,000,000.

Mother nature was doing her business as usual, but not on any mad rampage wiping out scores of additional people.

And Since humans are the only species on earth that aren't in sync with the natural order of things, we are more of a cancer than a helping organ to earth...

As you suggest,  I don't doubt one day mother earth will do her version of a forest fire with the rate of our population growth,  but it wasn't last year.
 

 

Some interesting points raised, but presented as factual statements without presenting facts or sources. 

 

I’ll provide similar information based on England and Wales: 

 

Source: Office for National Statistics: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales

 

674,867 - Av Total Deaths (England & Wales) - 2015 to 2019

742,961 - Total Deaths (England $ Wales) - 2020 

68,094 - Excess deaths in England and Wales in 2020 compared to Av per year for the previous 5 years. 

 

Up to 26th March 2021 (12 Weeks)

143,738 - Av Total Deaths (England & Wales) - first 12 weeks of the year in 2015 to 2019

174,828 - Total Deaths (England $ Wales) - first 12 weeks of the year in 2021

31,983 - Excess deaths in England and Wales in  compared to Av for the first 12 weeks of the 2021 compared to the previous 5 years (2015 to 2019 / excluding 2020).

 

 

Since the beginning of 2020 England and Wales have had an excess of 99,177 deaths 

 

 

On average 1.012% of the UK population dies each year (based on years 2015 to 2019)

In 2020 1.115% of the UK population died = in 2020 there was a 10% increase in deaths compared to previous 5 year average. 

 

These figures are not Covid-19 specific but the simple metric of total deaths.

 

The excess deaths in the UK and Wales is damning and contradicts what you have written above Dart12. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by richard_smith237

[Pla nin]

The only possible way to keep this terrible virus in check is through vaccination, 

[todlad]

4 hours ago, DLock said:

 

You post is like a Seinfeld post - a post about nothing.

 

I took a simple guess based on run rates. That's all. A guess. A wild, random guess. Based on nothing. With no consideration, no references, no report reading, no citing of my detailed breakdown. 

 

Does it offend you so much that I made a "forecast", that you call me out? And yet, offer no alterantive forecast based on the "DDC" yourself?

 

Let's just wait a few days until my "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong", becomes reality, and I will deal with you then...

Firstly, you just blurted it out. You announced some run rates from last week and proceeded to pronounce the DDC report as rubbish, essentially.

 

Now, in spite of yourself, you are going to claim some kind of victory if the reported number on a date and time that you specify is somewhere near your wild guess.

 

Why have I not even attempted to provide my own wild guess in this context?

 

a) I am not that kind of person

b) I would not want to claim any kind of victory if I managed to hit on one number when what is much more important is the scope and trend of values over a longer term than by the middle of this week.

c) I imagine there are people here who support your wild guess strategy and I would not like to be seen to lead such people down the path to further dunderheadedness.

 

In the end, come up with something rational and supportable and you'll not hear me complain.

[Pla nin]

The smart money is on Vaccination border control is so 2020.

 

[Joinaman]

20 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Maybe there is an increase in ICU how can you say there is not?

 

Deaths always have a lag in time surely you know that? Its only been a week since this new wave started

but what happened on the last wave ?

are you saying we had massive increases in ICU admissions with large increases in deaths too ?

if not, why would this be different 

[Joinaman]

19 hours ago, elliss said:

 

     That was the procedure  for Covid , last year ...

     That was a trial run ..

     This time ,  Thai Goverment allows .

       Unlimited travel restrictions  on Songkran Festival .

      Thais are , jam packed on the buses from BKK , to Issan .

        I fear , the worse ...

keep hiding then and leave others to get on with life 

Testing, or no testing, still results in very few ICU admissions and even fewer deaths ,

[Joinaman]

20 hours ago, ukrules said:

 

What you will see depends entirely on the amount of testing being done, there's no chance at all that it's not already well over 2000 cases per day.

 

2000 cases a day, ( nice guesswork),  yet no increase in deaths ?

so not really turning out to be deadly in Thailand is it ?

[Joinaman]

18 hours ago, Donga said:

Let's see if this turns out be the huge wave Thailand was "lucky" enough to avoid previously, or whether they can bring it under control in a reasonable time frame say 2 months. Which is my projection, why:

1. Govt is not so ineffectual as some portray as they have the contact tracing capabilities, strong quarantine processes and health volunteers to assist, particularly in the provinces.
2. Thai society (apart from HiSos, a distinct minority) are community conscious and will don the masks, social distance more effectively than the Europeans and most other countries.

Be personally responsible, like most Thais, and by June it will be like it was for most of the time, compared to the rest of the world. The numbers are still controllable and well below what many countries have endured.
 

Are you for real ????

Thais social distance ??

Personally responsible ? 

How many Thais wear  masks unless told to , and even then watch them lower them on entry to shops and malls

You ever go shopping or go to bars and restaurants  ? See how they social distance, ha ha ha

Huge wave of what, infections ? Why would this year be any different to last year, when  so few were in ICUs and so few deaths , and with none , or very little social distancing 

[Joinaman]

17 hours ago, Bkktodd said:

Meanwhile 9 in 10 farangs walk around Pattaya without masks.  In their own little covid free world

and you have some figures for how many of these "sad:" farangs have caught the virus and either been treated in ICU, or have died ??

so much fear for so few deaths and hospitalizations, 

yet people continue to drive cars and ride bikes without such fear, which is many many more times likely to kill you 

[Joinaman]

16 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

The nearly 3 million who have died might not agree with you on that.

but they did not live in Thailand, did they ?

its been over 16 months now, so why has Thailand not had such large numbers as other countries ?

No social distancing, limited mask wearing, inter province travelling, yet so few deaths, why ?

Do they have some sort of immunity ?

why are ex pats not dying like flies, as per other countries  ?

[Joinaman]

16 hours ago, mlmcleod said:

Perhaps the government can take a few of the baht budgeted for submarines and get the lead out on vaccinations.  The rest of the world seems to be vaccinating like crazy but not Thailand.  Vaccination is the only way to control the pandemic!

control what, exactly ?

Infections, ?

doing nothing seems to be working very well so far, 16 months and so few deaths

why spend billions on semi useless vaccines to save so few lives ?

better to spend billions on preventing road deaths and liver fluke cancers, that effects almost every family in Thailand, rather than what appears to be nothing worse than the flu to the Thai population 

[Joinaman]

8 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Already short of hospital beds, limited testing kits, virtually no vaccines...

Songkran national holiday allowing inter provincial travel.

what could possibly go wrong...

Prayut & Co should bow out now.

short of hospital beds ? 

Is this due to confining healthy people in them , people who just happen to test positive, yet are otherwise healthy.

How many are in intensive care and how many are dying ? Surely that is the thing we should be looking at, not the infection rate

I'm sure if you tested for the flu, you would have very high numbers too, of otherwise perfectly healthy people, with very few ICUs and deaths

[Joinaman]

6 hours ago, pixelaoffy said:

If only.  Thailand never had plan for dealing with the virus other than shutting down the country last year .what came next was .mai pen rai

well it certainly seems to be working does it not ?

97 deaths out of millions is one that any other country would love to have

[Joinaman]

6 hours ago, newnative said:

   Pity the government has failed so miserably at item #2 on his list.  No vaccine in adequate numbers and, now, not even testing kits in adequate numbers.  Gross incompetence.  

so no vaccines, and limited testing, yet only 97 deaths ?

and you call that gross incompetence ?

 

[Tonypandy]

On 4/12/2021 at 12:36 PM, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

The borders have already been closed for one year, those who have come to the country legally have gone through quarantine for 14 days. Do you think covid only comes from foreigners? You will never get rid of this from Thailand or any other country, we all have to learn to live with it and we will. 

[DLock]

2 hours ago, Pla nin said:

The only possible way to keep this terrible virus in check is through vaccination, 

 

Agreed, but maybe not the Chinese vaccines...

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Joinaman said:

but what happened on the last wave ?

are you saying we had massive increases in ICU admissions with large increases in deaths too ?

if not, why would this be different 

I'm not saying anything apart from asking how you know there are no increases in ICU cases?? Understand, you are the one who said there was not so how do you know?

[Joinaman]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm not saying anything apart from asking how you know there are no increases in ICU cases?? Understand, you are the one who said there was not so how do you know?

Ok, i will rephrase that

There are no reported cases of increased ICU admissions on this forum 

is that better ?

Or maybe you could show otherwise ?.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Joinaman said:

Ok, i will rephrase that

There are no reported cases of increased ICU admissions on this forum 

is that better ?

Or maybe you could show otherwise ?.

Why would I want to show otherwise, it was your claim and I was just asking you to support it, thanks, you can't

[pixelaoffy]

41 minutes ago, Tonypandy said:

The borders have already been closed for one year, those who have come to the country legally have gone through quarantine for 14 days. Do you think covid only comes from foreigners? You will never get rid of this from Thailand or any other country, we all have to learn to live with it and we will. 

Of  course it's true but gov scaring folk and controlling is never more so than in the land of S****

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Joinaman said:

so no vaccines, and limited testing, yet only 97 deaths ?

and you call that gross incompetence ?

 

Yes, especially with the vaccination program.  

[Bangkok Barry]

2 hours ago, Joinaman said:

but they did not live in Thailand, did they ?

its been over 16 months now, so why has Thailand not had such large numbers as other countries ?

No social distancing, limited mask wearing, inter province travelling, yet so few deaths, why ?

Do they have some sort of immunity ?

why are ex pats not dying like flies, as per other countries  ?

 

Over the past year I doubt I've seen more than a dozen or so people not wearing a mask. Maybe Bangkok, where I'm not, or Pattaya where I'm not, are different. As to why so few deaths, do you think that closing the borders almost from day one might have had something to do with it. Like in several other SE Asian countries which have also kept the figures down.

 

It is only recently that we've heard about people crossing the local borders, with or without the help of corrupt officials, with the result that Thailand can now, by allowing outsiders in, follow other countries in having an escalating crisis - ably assisted by a government that encouraged people to travel out of red zones to the provinces. It's almost as if they wished thousands to perish. Time will tell if they have succeeded.