Thai Prime Minister reassures public after most severe COVID-19 wave

[Burma Bill]

Quote:- Thai Prime Minister reassures public

 

 

Oh really!!!

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Did you miss the numbers in the graphic, there are only enough ICU beds in the whole country for another 19 days. Source CCSA

 

I believe that's assuming people in ICU stay there permanently...but of course most get better and can be moved to less intensive treatment rooms and even eventually discharged. Some will also die freeing up their beds.

[PGSan]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

I wouldn't wait to check back with him

What would you do instead of waiting?   Or do you mean I should check back now rather than waiting (he may know already I guess).

[Harry Fingerling]

[ibtg68]

[sambum]

11 minutes ago, Polaky said:

Where did you get 8,025?, 332,730 as we speak.

 

United States of America

31,530,214

62,642

564,091

867

Community transmission

India

16,263,695

332,730

186,920

2,263

Clusters of cases

Brazil

14,122,795

79,719

381,475

3,472

Community transmission

France

5,325,495

34,034

101,513

283

Community transmission

Russian Federation

4,744,961

8,840

107,501

398

Clusters of cases

Turkey

4,501,382

54,791

37,329

354

Community transmission

The United Kingdom

4,398,435

2,728

127,345

18

Community transmission

 

From Worldometer today:- 

India World Ranking No 2 

Total Cases 16,610,481

New cases +8,025

Total Deaths 189,549

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, PGSan said:

What would you do instead of waiting?   Or do you mean I should check back now rather than waiting (he may know already I guess).

Here's my unedited post that you partially deleted in your response:

 

"I wouldn't wait to check back with him, it will be all over the news I'm afraid, but sure you note it right now and get back"

 

I thought it was pretty clear......

[sambum]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

From 320,000 to 8,025 in just one day...now that would be some serious improvement...

 

Check Worldometer!

[Ajarnbrian]

With that number of new cases, we can be sure many more asymptomatic cases too and the spread will continue. When a population is far from having had mass vaccinations, this could be disastrous in the coming months. Mismanagement with lost opportunities to keep it under control. Australia, NZ, Taiwan and Korea have set the standard in dealing with this virus.

[terryofcrete]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Most countries vaccinated health workers first, but here many are reported as getting sick with Covid according to the other TV thread article. And yet tourism workers in phuket have been vaccinated so that they can deal with vaccinated tourists.

 

now THAT one has me stumped.

Why has it got you stumped ? ... Money is more important than the lives of the real carers ! 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I believe that's assuming people in ICU stay there permanently...but of course most get better and can be moved to less intensive treatment rooms and even eventually discharged. Some will also die freeing up their beds.

I'm pretty sure the CCSA thought of that before issuing the statement. So 19 days before ICU's throughout the country are full and thats presuming case numbers do not increase. Not looking good. Lockdown in order for you yet? Or is your personal risk assessment still positive

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The government has allocated 380 billion baht ($12.16 billion) budget to stimulate the economy, Prayuth said.

Just buy some bl**dy vaccines... the stimulus will not help Covid.

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Most countries vaccinated health workers first, but here many are reported as getting sick with Covid according to the other TV thread article. And yet tourism workers in phuket have been vaccinated so that they can deal with vaccinated tourists.

 

now THAT one has me stumped.

Why are you stumped exactly ?

Think of Thailand and always think of the Money.

There is nothing else to consider.

[Pattaya Spotter]

23 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm pretty sure the CCSA thought of that before issuing the statement. So 19 days before ICU's throughout the country are full and thats presuming case numbers do not increase. Not looking good. Lockdown in order for you yet? Or is your personal risk assessment still positive

Oh so now the CCSA is an all seeing all knowing branch of the Thai government when their prognostications fit into your disaster narrative? How about the government Health Minister's prediction that this latest wave will soon be under control...you agree with that too right? 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[VBF]

2 hours ago, sambum said:

 

And just what are the populations of India and Japan compared to Thailand?

 

To save you looking it up:- India 1,390,975,476, and Japan 126,162,025  (Substantially more than the population of Thailand which stands at 69,941,967.) (Figures from Worldometer)

 

(P.S. India's latest daily infections is shown as "only" 8,025, so maybe they have it more under control than the media would have us believe?)

You think?  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56870410

[GroveHillWanderer]

2 hours ago, sambum said:

(P.S. India's latest daily infections is shown as "only" 8,025, so maybe they have it more under control than the media would have us believe?)

No idea where you're getting that from. The latest daily figure for new cases in India is nearly 350,000, according to Johns Hopkins University's figures.

 

[overt2016]

10 hours ago, colinneil said:

Just more of his usual pathetic  BS, truth is he is way over his head, has absolutely no idea.

All he cares about is himself, no one else, time for him to pack his bags and p off.

The PM would do well to think back when he . his cronies, military and 250 useless senators

were vaccinated while 100,s of frontline nurses ,doctors and medical staff were left lanquishing.

PM you don't have any nor deserve any respect.

[Brunolem]

45 minutes ago, Anna Rak said:

Well I am sorry to have to remind everyone, but about 2 weeks after the infections the death tolls start rising.

That is not necessarily true.

Singapore had a hard time with a very heavy case load for many weeks, and yet very few fatalities.

 

It all depends on who is infected, elderlies and retirees, as in Europe, or young and healthy workers, as in East Asia.

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Oh so now the CCSA is an all seeing all knowing branch of the Thai government when their prognostications fit into your disaster narrative? How about the government Health Minister's prediction that this latest wave will soon be under control...you agree with that too right? 

 

 

Well one has to assume they can count ICU beds. Or are you suggesting they are the ones creating a disaster narrative?

 

 

[VBF]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

It's a balance...would you recommend locking down a country of tens of millions or hundreds of millions if there is one case? I mean, after all, cases could increase 100% to 2 infections and if you don't come down hard you're eventually on the way to 300k daily cases.

But you're ignoring the fact that infection increases exponentially, not linearly. So even in your example it increases 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 etc.

And if each of those infected was to infect just one other person and if it gets to 128 infected, and each infects just one person, it becomes 128 x 128 = 16384.

Obviously, it's not quite that simple - it could be more or less though.

[phills2k1]

57 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

By then the health system would have crashed if Thailand followed that path.

 

How are people THIS illogical?  It seriously blows my mind

 

"Let's wait and see if the fire is going to destroy 75% of the neighborhood before we request the help of additional fire companies"

[Anna Rak]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That is not necessarily true.

Singapore had a hard time with a very heavy case load for many weeks, and yet very few fatalities.

 

It all depends on who is infected, elderlies and retirees, as in Europe, or young and healthy workers, as in East Asia.

 

 

To be fair Thailand is not Singapore, and the facilities in Singapore far out way anything Thailand has to offer and I was stating just rule of thumb.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, phills2k1 said:

 

How are people THIS illogical?  It seriously blows my mind

 

"Let's wait and see if the fire is going to destroy 75% of the neighborhood before we request the help of additional fire companies"

I wish I had an explanation, unfortunately their narrative that we can just wait and see is one that was carried out already by so many other countries and failed miserably in each one, yet they think its fine to experiment some more, follow those failing again in Thailand and end up with the potential for the same disastrous results.

[phills2k1]

51 minutes ago, sambum said:

 

From Worldometer today:- 

India World Ranking No 2 

Total Cases 16,610,481

New cases +8,025

Total Deaths 189,549

 

lol this is just so insanely wrong. I'm not even mad, I'm amazed

 

From Reuters:  "India’s coronavirus infections rose by 346,786 overnight, the health ministry said on Saturday, setting a new world record for the third consecutive day, as overwhelmed hospitals in the densely-populated country begged for oxygen supplies."

[VBF]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I wish I had an explanation, unfortunately their narrative that we can just wait and see is one that was carried out already by so many other countries and failed miserably in each one, yet they think its fine to experiment some more, follow those failing again in Thailand and end up with the potential for the same disastrous results.

"If you keep doing the same things, you'll keep getting the same result!"   Unfortunately, the Thai attitude often appears to we "we're different".   Usually that doesn't matter too much (it can sometimes be quite endearing) but in this situation, it can help to swallow one's pride and learn!

Not Thai bashing, just observing????

[GroveHillWanderer]

57 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I believe that's assuming people in ICU stay there permanently...but of course most get better and can be moved to less intensive treatment rooms and even eventually discharged. Some will also die freeing up their beds.

Most people admitted to ICU with CoViD-19 do not get better.

 

According to one recently-published study:

 

"Mortality rates reported in patients with severe COVID-19 in the ICU range from 50–65%. In patients requiring MV [mechanical ventilation], mortality rates have been reported to be as high as 97%."

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249038&type=printable

[georgey]

51 minutes ago, sambum said:

 

Check Worldometer!

Not that they're always totally reliable, but just heard on BBC news re India ".....nearly 1 million new cases in the last 3 days". Worldometer's number certainly looks anomalous.

[Pattaya Spotter]

13 minutes ago, VBF said:

But you're ignoring the fact that infection increases exponentially, not linearly. So even in your example it increases 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 etc.

And if each of those infected was to infect just one other person and if it gets to 128 infected, and each infects just one person, it becomes 128 x 128 = 16384.

Obviously, it's not quite that simple - it could be more or less though.

Cases went from 2000 to 3000...a 50% increase (they were down 25% the day before so they're very "noisy)...hardly an exponential increase. If there is a clear trend of large increases over the next week stronger measures will be needed.

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Most people admitted to ICU with CoViD-19 do not get better.

 

According to one recently-published study:

 

"Mortality rates reported in patients with severe COVID-19 in the ICU range from 50–65%. In patients requiring MV [mechanical ventilation], mortality rates have been reported to be as high as 97%."

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249038&type=printable

I've said that in other posts...once you're on a vent it's likely curtains. Like I said, beds will be freed up one way or another.

[VBF]

5 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Cases went from 2000 to 3000...a 50% increase (they were down 25% the day before so they're very "noisy)...hardly an exponential increase. If there is a clear trend of large increases over the next week stronger measures will be needed.

Yes I accept that - at this time. I haven't checked your numbers but assume you've taken them from reliable source(s).

But to say " If there is a clear trend of large increases...." is rather reckless given what's happened elsewhere in the world, don't you think?  Why should Thailand be any different, just because they'd like to be?

Edited April 24, 2021 by VBF