Still long bitcoin, etherium, etc.?

[Logosone]

Bitcoin will fall for sure. Nothing goes up forever. Price can go up for a very long time, very very long time. But eventually there is always a fall. Price action goes in waves not straight lines.

 

The question is when.

[ukrules]

45 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The question is when.

What if it trends up for the next 20 years?

 

If you look at a chart for the last 10 years it's pretty clear which direction it's heading - this is just beginning of something very big.

[Logosone]

46 minutes ago, ukrules said:

What if it trends up for the next 20 years?

 

If you look at a chart for the last 10 years it's pretty clear which direction it's heading - this is just beginning of something very big.

 

I don't think it will be a bull run for 20 years. The longest in history is the SP 500 bull run from 2009, that's half of 20 years. Not saying it's impossible, but it is extremely, extremely unlikely.

 

Even the SP 500 bull run from 2009 had 10% dips. So even if it were to go on for 20 years, you'd have 10% dips for sure.

 

With the SP 500 bull run from 2009 people were saying it will go on forever. Now look at the dips we had recently.

 

Nothing is impossible, so it could go higher for 20 years, but that would be unprecedented and is fantastically unlikely.

[Poet]

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

Hardly any exchanges list the privacy coins. There is a reason for that and it's not arbitrary, for example it's on the non US Binance but not the Binance.us website.

Of the five biggest exchanges by volume - Binance, Huomi, Coinbase, Kraken, Binfinex, Kucoin, Gate - all list Monero except for Coinbase because they wanted to IPO and the US government really didn't want them to offer Monero. As you pointed out, same goes for the US Binance site, which is the 8th biggest exchange by volume. The US government gunning for privacy coins is a sign of just how important this technology is.

Once people understand the important of crypto privacy and fungibility, they will make the effort to find an exchange that offers Monero.

Acquiring Pirate Chain is far more tricky. I had to buy it from a tiny exchange called Trade Ogre that does not even accept cash, I had to fund my account with Bitcoin. I decided it was worth the effort because, being technologically equivalent to Monero but newer and currently with a far lower price, it is more of a long shot but has far more potential upside. For example, simply getting listed by one of the big exchanges will immediately hike Pirate Chain's price.

 

 

[Poet]

7 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Rationalizations are always the same.

Who is rationalizing? Me?

If I have been operating under some sort of delusion over the past decade, it has been a surprisingly profitable one ????
 

7 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Where is the actual value?  Any office buildings constructed, factories built, people hired, products produced?

That is the whole point. Most of that cruft is no longer necessary.

We are disintermediating the layer of middlemen and robber barons who had entrenched themselves inside the world's financial systems. There is immediate value in eliminating the need for office buildings and millions of office workers, bank clerks, security guards etc.

 

7 hours ago, Walker88 said:

The supposed market value of crypto far exceeds the amount of any other sort of wealth measure put into it, yet it has created absolutely nothing. Crypto makes fiat currency look good.

 

Somebody buys at X. Next lowest offer is X+1000. Somebody buys at X+1000. Everybody else marks theirs to market, assuming they can realize X+1000. The overall 'value' of Bitcoin has jumped by, say, $10 billion on a purchase of $40,000. Yes, that is a reduction to the ridiculous, but that is what has happened.

There is probably no point in trying to explain it, people either get crypto or they don't.

Even beyond crytpo, the vast majority of people have no real understanding of how value is created, how opening up new ways to trade and bigger markets always creates more value.

I will try one example:

The Internet has created a large amount of value, well beyond the value of the equivalent brick n' mortar operations it replaced. This is because new types of services, products, projects, collaborations etc were now possible.

Every business has a plan, some way in which it hopes to create value. To fulfill their plan, they need certain things to be done. Most businesses are held back, not by lack of money (there is plenty of money around) but by lack of people with the skills necessary to do those things. More access to the skills they need allows them to create more value.

Every morning, I wake up and spend exactly 4 hours creating assets. I pour my skill, experience, creativity, and energy into assets that businesses can use to further their plans. I deliver excellent work and that plays a small part in helping them, in turn, to deliver an excellent service to their clients. I charge a lot but it is still far less than they would pay to have an inhouse department, even if they could find local folks to staff it. No business cares that I am sitting in my home office, or some cafe or coworking space in Chiang Mai. All they want are the assets I produce.

Twenty years ago, to do this work, I probably would have had to live in San Francisco. If you have ever visited San Francisco, you will know that it is no longer a city fit for human beings. Accidentally walking into junkie poop on the sidewalk is somehow far, far worse than dog poop. Being able to instead live in Thailand is, in itself, a massive creation of value for me.

Even up until ten years ago, however, getting paid in Thailand was a hassle. Slow, expensive, and I often had to waste my valuable time dealing with the legacy banking system. Being able to receive immediate payments, at almost no cost, the minute I complete the work, makes my life better. I walk out into the Thai sunshine and don't have to apply any more thought to my business. I don't even check email until the following morning.

The more clients I can potentially sell to, the more money I make. I am happy to sell to any client, anywhere, but some clients, particularly in socialist dictatorships, are not allowed to send me money. For small tech business owners in, say, Vietnam, this was a major problem. They had all this talent, energy, and hard work ethic, but were prevented from buying the advantage that I was happy to sell to them. This pointless crippling was, in turn, bad for their potential clients. All that potential value was not allowed to be created.

Luckily, small Vietnamese businesses were quick to discover Bitcoin as a way to route around their broken government. I started receiving emails from them, asking if I might be willing to accept Bitcoin. I said, sure, and that opened up an entirely new market to me, one I had never suspected existed. Meanwhile, my work helped them to compete globally and create more value for clients everywhere.

It is also how I got into crypto, which turned out to be very lucky.

 

8 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Billions in actual wealth hasn't been created; everyone playing the game has just marked to market, pretending they could all realize that amount. When even a small number of folks decided to liquidate, it fell 50%.

Yes, speculators are driven by greed, but they also serve a very useful purpose: they stake the system, conferring actual value on bits of data. That allows an ambitious kid in Saigon or Caracas or Shenzen to ignore their dictatorships and reach out to interact commercially with the entire world. Unprecedented value is being created everywhere, partly enabled by the "greedy" speculators.

People who do not understand crypto only see a bunch of new billionaires who don't look like billionaires. The feeling is that these crypto weirdos could not possibly deserve it, they must have cheated.

In fact, we deserve every satoshi we have earned. Every purchase we made was made competively. When others cashed out after a quick profit, we stayed in. We were willing to take risks that others would not, because we understood the bigger picture. Instead of enriching ourselves within the existing financial systems, we put our money where are mouths were and invested everything in an entirely new system that will ultimately enrich everyone on the planet.

The legacy establishment are, of course, fighting like hell against this because they do not want their monopoly to evaporate. They whole worldview is one in which only their 1% get to own the planet. So, expect to keep hearing all this nonsense about crypto, funded by the legacy elites and pandering to the prejudices of all the regular folks who missed out.
 

8 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Trade it, make some dosh, but don't get greedy.

So ... you are advocating selfless investing? What if you accidentally make too much?
 

8 hours ago, Walker88 said:

It ends in tears.

On a long enough timeline, this is true of every financial system.

In our current reality, however, crypto clearly presents the most innovation and potential.

It staggers me that, with the unprecedented levels of money printing currently taking place, you somehow don't see it all ending in tears for those with dollar-denominated pensions. Since last March, when Bitcoin was $5k, I have been urging members here to hedge against that my putting around 5% of their portfolio into Bitcoin or Ether.

For anyone who followed that advice (and a surprising number have contacted me to tell me that they did) that investment would now be 8x larger (Bitcoin) or 25x larger (Ether) even based on prices now, during the current "crash".

 

8 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I smell.......bubble.

Throughout my life, I have heard armchair experts, whose own savings were in pension funds generating ridiculously low annual returns, expound upon how anything innovative bubbling up in the markets was a bubble.

From very early on, Microsoft was dismissed as a bubble and, yet, they generated trillions of dollars in value and changed our world.

Apple was dismissed as a bubble and, yet, they generated trillions of dollars in value and changed our world.

Amazon was dismissed as a bubble and, yet, they generated trillions of dollars in value and changed our world.

Google was dismissed as a bubble and, yet, they generated trillions of dollars in value and changed our world.

Why is it that everyone I know with the energy and intelligence to run their own business loves crypto, while all those who shake their heads sadly and mutter about bubbles never seem to have any money? I mean, if they are so wise, and have avoided all these bubbles, why can they never afford to buy a round?

I smell ... council house ????

Just to be clear, I consider crypto to be even more consequential for the human race, and more valuable, than Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google combined, and yet we will be back here again next year, and the next, and the next, hearing from exactly the same people about how it is all just a bubble.

 

[mjnaus]

7 hours ago, Logosone said:

Nothing is impossible, so it could go higher for 20 years, but that would be unprecedented and is fantastically unlikely.

 

Everything interesting in crypto is unprecedented. Everything interesting in crypto would have been considered "fantastically unlikely" 20 years ago. The same can be said for the invention of the internet, modern communication, the printing press, etc. 

[The Cipher]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

Bitcoin will fall for sure. Nothing goes up forever. Price can go up for a very long time, very very long time. But eventually there is always a fall. Price action goes in waves not straight lines.

 

The question is when.

 

Did you miss the past couple of weeks there, champ?

 

 

 

[Susco]

41 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

 

Everything interesting in crypto is unprecedented. Everything interesting in crypto would have been considered "fantastically unlikely" 20 years ago. The same can be said for the invention of the internet, modern communication, the printing press, etc. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-the-value-of-bitcoin-is-entirely-based-on-wishful-thinking-203038217.html

Deutsche Bank: 'The value of bitcoin is entirely based on wishful thinking'

 

n a note published Thursday, Deutsche Bank analysts joined the conversation with a research note entitled "Bitcoin: Trendy is the last stage before tacky," quoting the late fashion icon Karl Lagerfeld.

“What’s true for glamour and style might also be true for bitcoin,” wrote Deutsche Bank’s Marion Labouré after the latest plunge. “Just as a ‘fashion faux pas’ can happen suddenly, we just received the proof that digital currencies can also quickly become passé.”

[Heng]

That's like Southwest, United, and American saying that a high speed rail system across America is an  unattainable pipe dream because planes.

[The Cipher]

@Susco ThAnK y0u FoR yET AnOthEr ThOuhGhtFuL aNd nUanCeD taKE oN thE t0piC ????

[fdsa]

49 minutes ago, Susco said:

Deutsche Bank: 'The value of bitcoin is entirely based on wishful thinking'

and market speculations.

The real cost of bitcoin is cost of electricity spent on mining plus amount of real cash brought to exchanges, I estimate it somewhere around $10k and very maximum $20k for 1 BTC. Anything over that is fake digits drawn by exchanges' owners and speculations.

[Heng]

11 minutes ago, fdsa said:

and market speculations.

The real cost of bitcoin is cost of electricity spent on mining plus amount of real cash brought to exchanges, I estimate it somewhere around $10k and very maximum $20k for 1 BTC. Anything over that is fake digits drawn by exchanges' owners and speculations.

 

And of course something can be priced far less or far more than its cost (just like any product/service on the planet).  As for collective global speculation (fake trade volume included) over time, one can just as easily call that the market price at any given time... it all depends on one's particular spin.   

[mjnaus]

2 hours ago, Susco said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-the-value-of-bitcoin-is-entirely-based-on-wishful-thinking-203038217.html

Deutsche Bank: 'The value of bitcoin is entirely based on wishful thinking'

 

n a note published Thursday, Deutsche Bank analysts joined the conversation with a research note entitled "Bitcoin: Trendy is the last stage before tacky," quoting the late fashion icon Karl Lagerfeld.

“What’s true for glamour and style might also be true for bitcoin,” wrote Deutsche Bank’s Marion Labouré after the latest plunge. “Just as a ‘fashion faux pas’ can happen suddenly, we just received the proof that digital currencies can also quickly become passé.”

 

Not quite sure how to respond to something like this, other than "yawn.....". An incumbent player discounting something that poses a threat the status quo; I am sure everybody will be selling their crypto assets instantly after reading something like this! Banks and other traditional institutions are shooting themselves in the foot by posting drivel like this instead of putting in the time and effort required to judge crypto on its merits. 

 

Incumbents have been writing fluff pieces like this since Bitcoin first appeared on the scene some 13 years or so ago; all beating the same drum declaring crypto's imminent demise. Yet, here we are. ATH after ATH, Ethereum generating $M's in daily fees, DeFi protocols serving real users, generating real revenues.  

[Surelynot]

On 5/19/2021 at 2:39 PM, guzzi850m2 said:

Yes I sold everything.

 

Had a good profit over the last year but I am only playing with small money.

Same here....sold out Tuesday......back in again last night......too scared to look this am.

[fdsa]

1 hour ago, mjnaus said:

Ethereum generating $M's in daily fees

 

and that's the major problem of Ethereum - its transaction fees are higher than those of Bitcoin! currently (as of 21 May 2021 13:40 GMT+7) the average ETH transfer fee is 4 USD, token transfer fee is 8 USD and ponzi scheme transfer fee is 25 USD)

 

Few days ago ETH transfer fees were close to 100 USD and token/ponzi transfers were close to 200 USD!

 

 

 

1 hour ago, mjnaus said:

DeFi protocols serving real users,

 

you mean ponzi schemes like Shiba Inu tokens, Safemoon Inu, Dogeelon, pootoken, mycumtoken,

 and whatever else token created hourly? yes, they are really "generating real revenues" but for their creators and those few who bought the very first day of such token creation.

[mjnaus]

20 minutes ago, fdsa said:

and that's the major problem of Ethereum - its transaction fees are higher than those of Bitcoin! currently (as of 21 May 2021 13:40 GMT+7) the average ETH transfer fee is 4 USD, token transfer fee is 8 USD and ponzi scheme transfer fee is 25 USD)

 

 

Whether that is a problem or not, depends on your viewpoint and time horizon. Yes, in the short term it is a problem for especially new users. However, high gas prices on Ethereum indicate a high demand for block space and therefor product/market fit. Something is obviously working on Ethereum, otherwise users would not be willing to pay those high gas prices. Furthermore, for context, when doing 5 figure transactions, total transaction fees are acceptable. So some content and nuance is needed when discussing Ethereum's gas prices and transaction fees. Furthermore, with IEP1559 just around the corner, the network will see massive changes to it's fee mechanisms, including a stabilizing one achieved by setting a base fee combined with a flexible block space (up to a certain level). Not likely to complete do away with high gas prices instantly, but it will definitely stabilize things. 

 

24 minutes ago, fdsa said:

you mean ponzi schemes like Shiba Inu tokens, Safemoon Inu, Dogeelon, pootoken, mycumtoken,

 and whatever else token created hourly? yes, they are really "generating real revenues" but for their creators and those few who bought the very first day of such token creation.

 

Where on earth did you get this from? Please stop talking nonsense. I never mentioned any of these <deleted>coins. And no, none of these are actually generating revenues (which you would know if you would have bothered to look into any of these). I am referring to protocols in the DeFi space. Uniswap, Compound, Aave, Curve, Yearn. All of these have users paying for the protocol's services.

[The Cipher]

4 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Where on earth did you get this from? Please stop talking nonsense. I never mentioned any of these <deleted>coins. And no, none of these are actually generating revenues (which you would know if you would have bothered to look into any of these). I am referring to protocols in the DeFi space. Uniswap, Compound, Aave, Curve, Yearn. All of these have users paying for the protocol's services.

 

A number of regular posters in this subforum don't seem to be here for a good faith discussion. They are convinced that the entire crypto market is a scam and don't have any interest in actually challenging that conviction.  Time and reality will bear out who is right here.

 

But, as I've said before, not investing in crypto is probably the right call for most people in the Thai Visa demographic. Trying to speculate out of belief that 'a crypto is a crypto is a crypto' is the easiest way to get rugged.

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

Did you miss the past couple of weeks there, champ?

 

 

 

 

No, but that wasn't a 20% fall. Unless it's a 20% fall it is just a dip in a bull run.

[fdsa]

46 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

I am referring to protocols in the DeFi space. Uniswap, Compound, Aave, Curve, Yearn. All of these have users paying for the protocol's services.

I am referring to the very same, the services you mentioned are mostly used for (only exist for?) exchanging trusted crypto like Bitcoin or Ethereum to ponzi shítcoins.

[fdsa]

33 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

A number of regular posters in this subforum don't seem to be here for a good faith discussion. They are convinced that the entire crypto market is a scam and don't have any interest in actually challenging that conviction.  Time and reality will bear out who is right here.

please do not mistake long time crypto enthusiasts and shítcoins-defiscam-shamers like me with recently-in-crypto shítcoins-defiscam-promoters like other users here.

[mjnaus]

2 hours ago, fdsa said:

I am referring to the very same, the services you mentioned are mostly used for (only exist for?) exchanging trusted crypto like Bitcoin or Ethereum to ponzi shítcoins.

 

Ok, I'll bite...

 

First of all, only five of the top 20 DeFi protocols are exchanges. One of which, Curve, only deals in stablecoin pairs (USDT, USDC, DAI, ETH/stETH, etc). So only only four DEX's in the DeFi top 10 could, potentially, provide liquidity for the range <deleted>coins. Potentially.... since a good number of those <deleted>coins are not ERC20 tokens and therefor do not trade on Ethereum DEX's. Furthermore, ALL of these protocols have been making GOOD money way before the last wave of <deleted> hit the markets.

 

And to wrap things up, even during the last wave of garbage coins, the top 10 pools on Uniswap (the largest DEX) only have ONE crapcoin trading pair.

 

And then we are not even getting into the other 15 DeFi protocols in the DeFi top 20, who are making money from financial services that have nothing to do with exchange services. 

 

I am sticking to my guns; decentralized finance on Ethereum is ligit. Real protocols, providing real financial services (exchanges, borrowing/lending, derivatives, insurance, etc) to real customers (including myself) all the while generating real revenue and turning a real profit. The space is still in its infancy, with lots of issues to be worked out, but this stuff is here to stay. I understand this is a hard pill to swallow for some folks, however it is what it is...

[BananaBandit]

How does someone purchase Monero from inside Thailand?

 

I maxed out my IT knowledge getting the wifey started on coins.co.th

 

But it seems you can purchase just Bitcoin on that platform. 

 

I'd like to snag some Monero, a bit of Ethereum, and wife won't shut up about the Dogcoin, so some of that as well. 

 

We tried Kraken last night unsuccessfully. I can't figure out if our failure is because Thais aren't allowed to use Kraken, or if it's because we're both a bit stupid. 

[fdsa]

Unfortunately only peer-to-peer exchanges. You may be able to buy Monero directly on peer-to-peer exchanges.

When I need to buy some rare shítcoin I usually buy LTC or ETH with cash on peer-to-peer exchange first then import crypto to the desired  shítcoin exchange website, rather than wire cash to that exchange. Yes I lose from 10 to 20% on fees but transfer takes a few hours rather than several days.

[Heng]

 

3 hours ago, BananaBandit said:

How does someone purchase Monero from inside Thailand?

 

 

Binance (Global) as long as you're not American.   If you're American, then hopefully either you can have a local family member open the account OR if you're lucky enough to be an American with more than one passport (use the other one... even better if you are an American that wasn't born in the US for example; not sure if they look at the birthplace on the passport like most offshore banks do).  

 

 

[Walker88]

Enjoy your crypto. Perhaps I am an exception to your rule about those seeing bubbles tend to be without money. I see bubbles. I'm flush.

 

I made my wealth the 'old fashioned way': hedge fund manager. The difference is I knew most of what I did was an illusion and dumb luck. Perhaps I understood human psychology better than most, as that allowed me to max my position limit at some rather opportune times at market tops, aka bubbles  Frankly, I really don't know what contributed to my success, other than a desire to retire in my late 30s. I guess there was also a healthy skepticism of markets and "can't lose" asset classes. Trade with the understanding that anything can happen, couple that with discipline (and some luck), and one can walk away with a nice bit of dosh. Overstay, and mistakes are inevitable (save perhaps for Warren Buffet and George Soros).

 

Cryptos, in my (obviously wrong in your opinion) opinion, are a bubble. They are more Beanie Babies than the internet. They are to today what Synthetic CDO Squareds with a CDS kicker were to the early 2000s. There is no barrier to entry, so the 4000 cryptos currently available for 'investment' can quickly become 400,000 cryptos. They also suffer from having no natural short, at least not a reliable one. They are an overloaded ferry with everyone running to one side of the vessel. Those who wanted to be long were long. Included in those longs were the proverbial shoeshine boys who gave Joe Kennedy stock tips in the Autumn of 1929. A comment or two from a public figure, a weak bid side of the market, and POOF! -50%

 

Fiat, for all its many faults, has a rather unique barrier to entry: there needs to be a country. Then the citizens of said country need to accept the fiat the govt gives them. That seems to work, as there are now 200 fiats in circulation (which is fewer than crypto currencies). Banks in said country then have the 'honor' of conjuring more of the fiat (limited only by reserve requirements). Citizens of said country can then borrow and use the fiat knowing its value from their perspective is constant at worst and diminishes slightly with purposeful inflation at best, thereby allowing them to repay borrowings with a purposely depreciating currency. Central Banks have gotten pretty good at orchestrating both the growth and inflation they want using their conjured fiat. Fiat has been on the verge of collapse since William Jennings Bryan, yet it's still going strong and is accepted at more places than Mastercard and Visa.

 

Cryptos, besides having zero barrier to entry, are speculative instruments, so they are useless in terms of traditional bank functions like borrowing. Of course had one borrowed Bitcoin a month ago, paying it back now would be pretty easy, as it tumbled 50%. Such violent movements, however, make it far too risky as a borrowing instrument. Companies who accept it have a difficult task hedging, and the recent tumble will give some of those who had accepted it pause. Fiat, on the other hand, has well established hedging vehicles, so even multinationals feel comfortable transacting in a variety of currencies.

 

Maybe cryptos are the future of finance and wealth storage, but I have my doubts. I guarantee, right now, around the world, there are not only folks convinced they'll be gazillionaires making absolutely nothing of value and with next to no understanding of what they are buying, but also legions of computer jockeys putting together their own crypto in the hope enough people will buy into it to make them sinfully rich.

 

Maybe the Bitcoin crash will put a few new cryptos on hold. If it rebounds back toward $50K ($45K more likely, as that will bring it long liquidations), expect hundreds of new cryptos to be brought to market, hyped on social media, and become the boast of those who fancy themselves the new Jesse Livermore (before his last bathroom stop at the Sherry Netherland Hotel), because there is no barrier to entry in the crypto arena.

 

And if I'm dead wrong and Bitcoin is a rocket ship to the moon, good for you. I don't need it, as the old fiat stuff, plus lots of physical assets that have genuine uses (like shelter, transportation, arable land, etc.) have me feeling as comfortable as I need to be for the duration.

[mjnaus]

5 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Enjoy your crypto. Perhaps I am an exception to your rule about those seeing bubbles tend to be without money. I see bubbles. I'm flush.

 

I made my wealth the 'old fashioned way': hedge fund manager. The difference is I knew most of what I did was an illusion and dumb luck. Perhaps I understood human psychology better than most, as that allowed me to max my position limit at some rather opportune times at market tops, aka bubbles  Frankly, I really don't know what contributed to my success, other than a desire to retire in my late 30s. I guess there was also a healthy skepticism of markets and "can't lose" asset classes. Trade with the understanding that anything can happen, couple that with discipline (and some luck), and one can walk away with a nice bit of dosh. Overstay, and mistakes are inevitable (save perhaps for Warren Buffet and George Soros).

 

Cryptos, in my (obviously wrong in your opinion) opinion, are a bubble. They are more Beanie Babies than the internet. They are to today what Synthetic CDO Squareds with a CDS kicker were to the early 2000s. There is no barrier to entry, so the 4000 cryptos currently available for 'investment' can quickly become 400,000 cryptos. They also suffer from having no natural short, at least not a reliable one. They are an overloaded ferry with everyone running to one side of the vessel. Those who wanted to be long were long. Included in those longs were the proverbial shoeshine boys who gave Joe Kennedy stock tips in the Autumn of 1929. A comment or two from a public figure, a weak bid side of the market, and POOF! -50%

 

Fiat, for all its many faults, has a rather unique barrier to entry: there needs to be a country. Then the citizens of said country need to accept the fiat the govt gives them. That seems to work, as there are now 200 fiats in circulation (which is fewer than crypto currencies). Banks in said country then have the 'honor' of conjuring more of the fiat (limited only by reserve requirements). Citizens of said country can then borrow and use the fiat knowing its value from their perspective is constant at worst and diminishes slightly with purposeful inflation at best, thereby allowing them to repay borrowings with a purposely depreciating currency. Central Banks have gotten pretty good at orchestrating both the growth and inflation they want using their conjured fiat. Fiat has been on the verge of collapse since William Jennings Bryan, yet it's still going strong and is accepted at more places than Mastercard and Visa.

 

Cryptos, besides having zero barrier to entry, are speculative instruments, so they are useless in terms of traditional bank functions like borrowing. Of course had one borrowed Bitcoin a month ago, paying it back now would be pretty easy, as it tumbled 50%. Such violent movements, however, make it far too risky as a borrowing instrument. Companies who accept it have a difficult task hedging, and the recent tumble will give some of those who had accepted it pause. Fiat, on the other hand, has well established hedging vehicles, so even multinationals feel comfortable transacting in a variety of currencies.

 

Maybe cryptos are the future of finance and wealth storage, but I have my doubts. I guarantee, right now, around the world, there are not only folks convinced they'll be gazillionaires making absolutely nothing of value and with next to no understanding of what they are buying, but also legions of computer jockeys putting together their own crypto in the hope enough people will buy into it to make them sinfully rich.

 

Maybe the Bitcoin crash will put a few new cryptos on hold. If it rebounds back toward $50K ($45K more likely, as that will bring it long liquidations), expect hundreds of new cryptos to be brought to market, hyped on social media, and become the boast of those who fancy themselves the new Jesse Livermore (before his last bathroom stop at the Sherry Netherland Hotel), because there is no barrier to entry in the crypto arena.

 

And if I'm dead wrong and Bitcoin is a rocket ship to the moon, good for you. I don't need it, as the old fiat stuff, plus lots of physical assets that have genuine uses (like shelter, transportation, arable land, etc.) have me feeling as comfortable as I need to be for the duration.

 

Yeah, crypto is not for you my friend. Stick with what you understand. 

[Surelynot]

Invested years ago........sold 90% last week for a tidy (for me) profit and now playing with house money......much more relaxing.

[Heng]

to house money!    *pours some on the ground to honor Flexcoin, CampBX, BTC-E, and all the homies who couldn't be here*