Must Read Thailand reports 3,052 COVID-19 cases, 24 new deaths

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, Donga said:

One of the very best performers in the world. And recognised as such by WHO and John Hopkins University. I could list all the reasons why they've done well, but frankly getting tired of it. Here's a few - relatively tight border control, face masks from onset, effective contact tracing and one million health volunteers

Pity the ranking of 90 is based on total cases per date, and not per capita. If you go through the same data table you'll find Thailand would rank around 175 out of 222 countries. Not many of those lower have nearly the same exposure to travel in and out (many African countries), nor the level of migrant workers, which have become a feature of this wave.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you're in Thailand, relax as you're in one of the safest places for Covid on the planet, but still need be careful. I get out of Bangkok quarantine on Monday, then Hua Hin ????

Ok. If you think so. Please remember the WHO said it wasn't a pandemic and keeping boarders open is a good thing. Personally I think there are far safer countries than Thailand to be in in regards to Covid. If you think differently that's your perogative. 

By the way even though your tired of saying why Thailand has done and I guess is doing so well I would really like to know. 

[dinsdale]

26 minutes ago, Donga said:

One of the very best performers in the world. And recognised as such by WHO and John Hopkins University. I could list all the reasons why they've done well, but frankly getting tired of it. Here's a few - relatively tight border control, face masks from onset, effective contact tracing and one million health volunteers

Pity the ranking of 90 is based on total cases per date, and not per capita. If you go through the same data table you'll find Thailand would rank around 175 out of 222 countries. Not many of those lower have nearly the same exposure to travel in and out (many African countries), nor the level of migrant workers, which have become a feature of this wave.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you're in Thailand, relax as you're in one of the safest places for Covid on the planet, but still need be careful. I get out of Bangkok quarantine on Monday, then Hua Hin ????

Are you vaccinated? Do you have to do more quarantine in Hua Hin because you are coming from a dark red zone? hotel quarantine isn't 100% safe just ask Australia.

Edited May 22, 2021 by dinsdale

[Donga]

10 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Ok. If you think so. Please remember the WHO said it wasn't a pandemic and keeping boarders open is a good thing. Personally I think there are far safer countries than Thailand to be in in regards to Covid. If you think differently that's your perogative. 

By the way even though your tired of saying why Thailand has done and I guess is doing so well I would really like to know. 

1. Look at the cases per capita - 175 out 222 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
2. Gave you four reasons, compare to other countries - which ones don't you understand? 
3. Not just WHO but also John Hopkins University has recognised Thailand's performance as well as Europe, given Thailand is one of seven countries been allowed in there without quarantine for the last 12 months.

It's quite simple if you take off the blinkers and look at the evidence.

I'm vaccinated Astra x2, coming out of quarantine and into a car so won't do any more quarantine.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Donga

[dinsdale]

33 minutes ago, Donga said:

1. Look at the cases per capita - 175 out 222 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
2. Gave you four reasons, compare to other countries - which ones don't you understand? 
3. Not just WHO but also John Hopkins University has recognised Thailand's performance as well as Europe, given Thailand is one of seven countries been allowed in there without quarantine for the last 12 months.

It's quite simple if you take off the blinkers and look at the evidence.

I'm vaccinated Astra x2, coming out of quarantine and into a car so won't do any more quarantine.

Not so good on the weekly trends. 23rd worse country in the world. India of course being number 1. New Zealand is 178. I think it would be difficult to argue that Thailand has done better than New Zealand.

p.s. glad your getting out of lockup. Stay safe. 

Edited May 22, 2021 by dinsdale

[realfunster]

3 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

Funny - a death only counts if you were tested positive, so the deaths reported are as limited as the testing.

 

Funny ? Think it through mate, your logic is off.

 

 Do you not expect someone with severe symptons (a precursor for dying..) to turn up at hospital and to be tested for COVID upon admission to determine appropriate medical care and isolation requirements ? Are these not the walk-ins reported in daily figures ? Or do you think significant numbers of people are just quietly suffocating at home with family watching on ? If you think large numbers of people are dying outside the system from COVID and it wouldn’t be all over social and other media, you are sorely mistaken. Just look at India. 

 

Where I do believe the testing is falling short is on identifying asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases, as testing is limited to primarily symptomatic patients or the now numerous hot-spot areas. 

 

[DrJack54]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

. I think it would be difficult to argue that Thailand has done better than New Zealand

Compare apples with apples.

NZ is an island. Easy borders to manage not to mention the population of NZ is under 5 million.

[Donga]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Not so good on the weekly trends. 23rd worse country in the world. India of course being number 1. New Zealand is 178. I think it would be difficult to argue that Thailand has done better than New Zealand.

Aw you got me there, comparing Thailand to a couple of islands in the Pacific. Will give you that one.

As for weekly trends, no denying Thailand has a challenge on its hands and we can postulate whether the handling of Songkran was irresponsible or not. I take comfort the cases are declining in most of the provinces outside Greater Bangkok, and for the most part the clusters are identified and being addressed. Compare that to Europe and Americas throughout 2020.

No denying Thailand is experiencing a challenging wave, relative to the previous ones (though still small, compared to most countries' waves) but I believe they've got the systems and the community awareness to manage. Let's see.

[dinsdale]

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Compare apples with apples.

NZ is an island. Easy borders to manage not to mention the population of NZ is under 5 million.

Please stop with the border thing. Yes it's an island, like Australia and they don't have porous borders but the real difference is how they manage things. Absolutely certain if there were only 5 cases in NZ and NZ had anything like Songkran, Songkran would not have gone ahead with people travelling all over the country and where the cases were found would have had a snap lockdown with mass testing and contact tracing.

[DrJack54]

10 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Please stop with the border thing. Yes it's an island, like Australia and they don't have porous borders but the real difference is how they manage things. Absolutely certain if there were only 5 cases in NZ and NZ had anything like Songkran, Songkran would not have gone ahead with people travelling all over the country and where the cases were found would have had a snap lockdown with mass testing and contact tracing.

You misunderstand me completely.

I think Thai gov management has been abysmal. One simple example was the list in order of soonest closure of borders.

Think NZ early. Was it 19th March last year. Au the next day. Vietnam also very early. Think Thailand was the 26th.

They avoided problems early on. Nothing down to good management. 

Fast wind to present day. Failure on many fronts. Songkran and extremely poor roll out of vaccine. 

Complete failure by Thai government and yet some suggest job well done when opposite is the case.

[anchadian]

#BreakingNews 7.00pm COVID-19 Network Investigations reported the South African strain of coronavirus were found among infected persons in Narathiwat’s Tak Bai area.

 

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1396073455510949889

 

Edited May 22, 2021 by anchadian

[Petey11]

9 minutes ago, anchadian said:

#BreakingNews 7.00pm COVID-19 Network Investigations reported the South African strain of coronavirus were found among infected persons in Narathiwat’s Tak Bai area.

 

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1396073455510949889

 

Should be quite easy to crack down on that outbreak and strain with the correct response of surge testing and isolation as long as everyone in the area is tested. Uk managed to get the south African strain under control I believe, total of about 900 cases detected to date. Link to variants in the UK. Don't know if there is such a chart for Thailand, but would be interesting to see if someone could find it.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

[ThailandRyan]

36 minutes ago, anchadian said:

#BreakingNews 7.00pm COVID-19 Network Investigations reported the South African strain of coronavirus were found among infected persons in Narathiwat’s Tak Bai area.

 

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1396073455510949889

 

The trifecta has been now won by Thailand ????????.   Stay safe. Lets see what this week brings in numbers. Then what it possibly brings in closures.

[Bkk Brian]

49 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

Should be quite easy to crack down on that outbreak and strain with the correct response of surge testing and isolation as long as everyone in the area is tested. Uk managed to get the south African strain under control I believe, total of about 900 cases detected to date. Link to variants in the UK. Don't know if there is such a chart for Thailand, but would be interesting to see if someone could find it.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

Yes agreed but as we know surge testing here has to date not existed. Narathiwat’s Tak Bai area borders Malaysia so could have possibly been brought over the border. Its also an insurgency area where attacks and bombs sometimes occur although apparently this year so far that has been declining.

 

Indeed a worry as we know AZ only provides minimal protection according to studies. Two doses of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine were found to have only a 10.4% efficacy against mild-to-moderate infections caused by the B.1.351 South Africa variant. 

 

Sinovac has as far as I know not been tested against this strain so who knows? 

 

Time those mRNA vaccines were brought into Thailand asap. 

 

The officials obviously are aware of the seriousness of this. Sequencing mutant varieties is not done overnight so there's always a lag before finding out its presence. 

 

Forget the expense now time to surge test immediately.

 

EDIT just found some info regards Sinovac on the South African Variant.

 

Coronavirus: Sinovac vaccine gives 70 per cent less protection against South African variant, but Hongkongers urged to still get jab

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3130355/coronavirus-sinovac-vaccine-gives-70-cent-less

Edited May 22, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Donga said:

It's quite simple if you take off the blinkers and look at the evidence.

You mean evidence provided by those in charge of Thailand and are ranked 104th transparency and corruption?Who were withholding the prison outbreak until it leaked?That evidence?What were you saying about blinkers?

[FarFlungFalang]

26 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The trifecta has been now won by Thailand ????????.   Stay safe. Lets see what this week brings in numbers. Then what it possibly brings in closures.

I think it might be the quadrella if you include the original strain with the 3 variants.Heading for the quadruple mutant strain called the Thaiger Strain.

[Danderman123]

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

To be even clearer it is for all active testing that they currently are doing in Bangkok. Clusters or otherwise

My point is that the testing is now focused on clusters, which have a higher positivity rate than Bangkok as a whole.

[riparian]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

My point is that the testing is now focused on clusters, which have a higher positivity rate than Bangkok as a whole.

From figures posted earlier, some do some don't

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

My point is that the testing is now focused on clusters, which have a higher positivity rate than Bangkok as a whole.

I'm aware that was your point and that's why I made the clarity.

 

Regardless we have an overall 9% active case finding rate + a higher rate of hospital walk ins, far higher.

 

This is not the time to downplay the very serious situation in Bangkok:

 

You said in this thread:

 

"It seems, however, that the number of cases outside of the clusters and the prisons is declining." Where is your evidence for that?

 

"I would be worried if the number of hospital walk-in cases were increasing."  They are, are you worried now?

 

[Danderman123]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm aware that was your point and that's why I made the clarity.

 

Regardless we have an overall 9% active case finding rate + a higher rate of hospital walk ins, far higher.

 

This is not the time to downplay the very serious situation in Bangkok:

 

You said in this thread:

 

"It seems, however, that the number of cases outside of the clusters and the prisons is declining." Where is your evidence for that?

 

"I would be worried if the number of hospital walk-in cases were increasing."  They are, are you worried now?

 

The blue bars are the hospital walk in cases, there isn’t much of a trend.

 

As for the 400+ new cases found via mass testing in the clusters, 9% positivity is not good, but once, again, this is testing in known clusters of infections.

 

It should be noted that there is no data for contact tracing tests, apart from mass testing in the clusters. By contact tracing, I am referring to investigating close contacts of individuals who are found to be positive. This could mean that contact tracing has stopped, due to lack of resources, or lack of cooperation. 
 

 

Edited May 22, 2021 by Danderman123

[Danderman123]

4 hours ago, riparian said:

From figures posted earlier, some do some don't

You are correct, they found one cluster which was a cold spot.

[anchadian]

Phuket still to reopen by July 1st but key economic agency predicts a 99% wipeout in tourist arrivals

 

Thailand’s goal of developing its domestic tourism market is only helped by its foreign tourism industry and is ultimately dependent on overall economic development and broader access to wealth among the wider population, not on tourism agencies or marketing drives. Chinese tourists will be absent from Thailand in 2021 as the communist government in Beijing has prioritised its own closed internal tourism market by deploying authoritarian command and control techniques. Indeed, similar measures have also been deployed in Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia and to a lesser extent the United States. It is, unfortunately for Thailand, an outcome that is ruinous for international tourism.

 

Thailand is making progress towards the reopening of foreign tourism to the kingdom without quarantine in Phuket on July 1st despite the ongoing struggle to effectively combat the third virus wave being fought nationwide and particularly in the inner city of the capital, Bangkok. This will be followed by a widening of destinations for foreign tourists including Bangkok itself on October 1st provided the current vaccination drive enjoys the same success as is currently being seen in Phuket. Despite that optimistic outlook, however, and in the midst of stubbornly high infection numbers and deaths, one of the country’s top economic agencies is only predicting foreign tourist numbers at 1.25% of the level seen before the pandemic, in effect, a 98.75% wipeout.

 

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2021/05/23/phuket-to-reopen-by-july-1st-99-per-cent-wipeout/

[charmonman]

20 hours ago, WhatsNext said:

I really love how thailand manages to downplay the numbers all the time by inventing new ways to present them, i have the final version for them

 

Today ZERO cases, beside from 1000 from the prisons, 1000 from the factories and some 1800 walk ins. 

Covid free naturally. 

 

Besides from that to all the doom and gloom typers here : Yeah there is a virus, yeah some people die from/with it. But also there is no Flu how amazing. Yes we are all going to die, eventually, but most certainly not en mass from covid. 

Yes, no flu because everyone is masking up, and everything is closed so it doesn’t have much opportunity to spread. Not really that amazing.

[anchadian]

 

Chonburi has 91 new, confirmed cases of Covid-19 today, Governor orders another related industrial estate closed temporarily

 

 

Read more:

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/23/chonburi-has-91-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-today-governor-orders-another-related-industrial-estate-closed-temporarily/

[Bkk Brian]

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The blue bars are the hospital walk in cases, there isn’t much of a trend.

 

As for the 400+ new cases found via mass testing in the clusters, 9% positivity is not good, but once, again, this is testing in known clusters of infections.

 

It should be noted that there is no data for contact tracing tests, apart from mass testing in the clusters. By contact tracing, I am referring to investigating close contacts of individuals who are found to be positive. This could mean that contact tracing has stopped, due to lack of resources, or lack of cooperation. 
 

 

Hospital Walk in cases are at their peak since the 5th May, the chart here shows it from the 14th.

 

Overall active case finding positivity rates:

22 May: 9.08%

20 May: 7.21%

19th May: 7.04%

18th May: 6.98%

 

You carry on focusing on the 1% cold spots they find and the rest of us will stick with the reality of the situation.

 

 

[Danderman123]

22 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Hospital Walk in cases are at their peak since the 5th May, the chart here shows it from the 14th.

 

Overall active case finding positivity rates:

22 May: 9.08%

20 May: 7.21%

19th May: 7.04%

18th May: 6.98%

 

You carry on focusing on the 1% cold spots they find and the rest of us will stick with the reality of the situation.

 

 

Since the shift in mass testing to the clusters, positivity rates have gone up, but that should be expected.

 

As for yesterday’s peak in hospital walk in cases, the trend is not yet obvious, it still looks like a random walk.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Since the shift in mass testing to the clusters, positivity rates have gone up, but that should be expected.

 

As for yesterday’s peak in hospital walk in cases, the trend is not yet obvious, it still looks like a random walk.

I seem to remember you quoting a 5% positivity rate, numerous times without caveat. I can quote you on those if you like?

 

As soon as it goes above that you attempt to justify why and downplay its significance. 

 

Regards hospital walk ins, again thats not what you said earlier, you were very specific. 

 

Downplaying the situation to suit your own narrative is obvious.

[anchadian]

The number of Covid-19 patients and fatalities in Asean countries on Saturday saw a slight decrease in comparison with Friday. #COVID19 #ASEAN #ThailandNews #TheNationThailand 

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1396268824194813956

Edited May 23, 2021 by anchadian

[anchadian]

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/330672188551112

 

[Danderman123]

20 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I seem to remember you quoting a 5% positivity rate, numerous times without caveat. I can quote you on those if you like?

 

As soon as it goes above that you attempt to justify why and downplay its significance. 

 

Regards hospital walk ins, again thats not what you said earlier, you were very specific. 

 

Downplaying the situation to suit your own narrative is obvious.

Common sense tells us that if a positivity rate is derived from testing of a limited area, then the rate only tells us about that area. Right now, mass testing is confined to clusters in Bangkok. And yes, some of the clusters are bad. But that’s just the clusters, not all of Bangkok. The attached image gives a better picture of the situation in Bangkok.

 

as a sanity test, we will see how the numbers of the general population evolve over the next days. I foresee a random walk, up and down movement along a narrow range.

 

i won’t ask you about your prediction, since you will refer me to a post you made last Wednesday. But since you always disagree with my predictions, if I am right, then by default you are wrong. Of course, you will evoke the prison numbers, if the general population figures continue to flatline.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Danderman123

[Marvin Hagler]

14 hours ago, Donga said:

1. Look at the cases per capita - 175 out 222 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
2. Gave you four reasons, compare to other countries - which ones don't you understand? 
3. Not just WHO but also John Hopkins University has recognised Thailand's performance as well as Europe, given Thailand is one of seven countries been allowed in there without quarantine for the last 12 months.

It's quite simple if you take off the blinkers and look at the evidence.

I'm vaccinated Astra x2, coming out of quarantine and into a car so won't do any more quarantine.

Based on REPORTED cases. It is indeniable that they also had one of the lowest testing rates in the world.

 

And if the 1,000,000 health worker volunteer force really existed (not saying they didn’t exist, just questioning the quantity especially as they were paid a daily stipend and there was excellent opportunity for corruption in inflating the numbers) and were really so effective then where are they now?