15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It is very common for diseases to be effectively eradicated by vaccinating large portions of the population. Do you disagree? 

 

The question is the necessary level of vaccination to effectively eradicate Covid-19. I don't know what that level is. 

Sorry, I’m not biting on your deflection. The point at issue was “herd immunity”. You go off on your tangent. 
 

bye bye.

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

14-20k infections and 170-200+deaths a wk which hasn't changed for a couple of months since the situation was allowed to get out of control. Vaccination rate poor. B.1.617.2 now starting to circulate. My question is what is going to change in the next 4 months to allow full openning. 

Probably nothing.

But like me and a lot of other people keep saying..

You are gonna have Covid anyway.

 

So:

a. Have Covid, and learn to deal with it.

OR

b. Have Covid, and also have to deal with ruined economies, 100% of lives effected,

suicides, shortages in the food chain,  job losses...mass depression of people..

 

on and on it will go, if this is allowed to go on like this

 

Time to bite the bullet and get on with it, or just lie down and let Covid

(or over-reaction to it)

finish us off for good.

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

 

 

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

Thailand's Vaccine Tracker (June 18, 2021) About 2.97 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, with 5,252,531 (+137,776) people received the first dose, while 1,967,137 (+78,109) received the second dose. #วัคซีนโควิด19 #ฉีดวัคซีน #COVID19 #Thailand #KE

https://twitter.com/KhaosodEnglish/status/1405766909212053505

 

Doing circa 200k jabs a day just isn’t going to cut it. Everyday they fall further and further behind the average pace they need to maintain.

 

they do monitor these things, right?

Edited June 18, 20215 yr by wensiensheng

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, in the small city of Serrana which was part of an experiment to see how effective vaccination was, when the level reached 75% of all adults vaccinated, something like herd immunity was reached. 25% of the unvaccinated adults had already had covid. So together that's a bit over 80 percent. And this was with using coronavac which is not nearly as effective as stopping transmission as most other vaccines.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/city-brazil-returns-normal-after-almost-all-adults-get-vaccinated-against-covid-19-180977897/

Thanks, I hadn’t seen that. I note:

 

“The vaccination program allowed researchers to track the real-world effects of mass vaccinations. The preliminary results of the vaccination program showed an 80 percent drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases, an 86 percent drop in hospitalizations and a 95 percent drop in deaths caused by Covid-19, Sofia Moutinho reports for Science magazine. The initial findings, which have not been peer-reviewed, were announced in a press conference on May 31.”

 

once 95% of people had been vaccinated, the above was the result. So the point being made by danderman that “eradication “ is possible, did not happen.

 

Whereas, the point being made that 70% vaccination does not magically produce herd immunity, seems validated.

 

all things being equal, it’s clear that vaccinations reduce cases. But getting to 70% vaccinated is not a silver bullet imho 

 

 

2 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Edited June 18, 20215 yr by wensiensheng

5 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Thanks, I hadn’t seen that. I note:

 

“The vaccination program allowed researchers to track the real-world effects of mass vaccinations. The preliminary results of the vaccination program showed an 80 percent drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases, an 86 percent drop in hospitalizations and a 95 percent drop in deaths caused by Covid-19, Sofia Moutinho reports for Science magazine. The initial findings, which have not been peer-reviewed, were announced in a press conference on May 31.”

 

once 95% of people had been vaccinated, the above was the result. So the point being made by danderman that “eradication “ is possible, did not happen.

 

Whereas, the point being made that 70% vaccination does not magically produce herd immunity, seems validated.

 

all things being equal, it’s clear that vaccinations reduce cases. But getting to 70% vaccinated is not a silver bullet imho 

 

 

Just to add a point here, the article also says that the city is only just starting to open now that 95% of people have had both jabs. So it was a combination of vaccinations and restrictions that brought Covid under control. It’s not really yet known what will happen once restrictions are lifted.

Pattani Expands Field Hospitals on Spreading COVID-19

PATTANI, June 18 (TNA) – Officials in the southern border province installed 300 more beds at their field hospitals as COVID-19 cases were increasing at two factories.

 

https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-719836

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Pattani Expands Field Hospitals on Spreading COVID-19

PATTANI, June 18 (TNA) – Officials in the southern border province installed 300 more beds at their field hospitals as COVID-19 cases were increasing at two factories.

 

https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-719836

 

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Pattani Expands Field Hospitals on Spreading COVID-19

PATTANI, June 18 (TNA) – Officials in the southern border province installed 300 more beds at their field hospitals as COVID-19 cases were increasing at two factories.

 

https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-719836

Unfortunately this government has no more concern about the people in the South then those in the North.

1 hour ago, pookondee said:

Probably nothing.

But like me and a lot of other people keep saying..

You are gonna have Covid anyway.

 

So:

a. Have Covid, and learn to deal with it.

OR

b. Have Covid, and also have to deal with ruined economies, 100% of lives effected,

suicides, shortages in the food chain,  job losses...mass depression of people..

 

on and on it will go, if this is allowed to go on like this

 

Time to bite the bullet and get on with it, or just lie down and let Covid

(or over-reaction to it)

finish us off for good.

Standard right wing cost benefit analysis arguement. How about this. Manage the pandemic properly in the short term meaning circuit breaker lockdowns, mass testing and mass vaccinations then your points a. and b. become somewhat redundant. Interestingly the UK which was down to around 500 infections p/d is now with the spread of B.1.617.2 up to 11,000+ p/d. The UK had relaxed restrictions around the same time the delta variant arrived and is now looking at another full lockdown in a country that has vaccinated 80% of the population with one dose and 52% with two doses. Do you think the UK should bight the bullet and get on with it and the possibility of another full lockdown there is an over reaction? As for "You are gonna have Covid anyway" why? Smallpox eradicated. Polio eradicated. Measles, get a jab and you won't get measles. These are all viruses.

Edited June 18, 20215 yr by dinsdale

The chart visual is clearly showing the upward trend hospital walk in cases, in blue

https://media.thaigov.go.th/uploads/public_img/source/180664.pdf

 

Edited June 18, 20215 yr by Bkk Brian

7 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Standard right wing cost benefit analysis arguement. How about this. Manage the pandemic properly in the short term meaning circuit breaker lockdowns, mass testing and mass vaccinations then your points a. and b. become somewhat redundant. Interestingly the UK which was down to around 500 infections p/d is now with the spread of B.1.617.2 up to 11,000+ p/d. The UK had relaxed restrictions around the same time the delta variant arrived and is now looking at another full lockdown in a country that has vaccinated 80% of the population with one dose and 52% with two doses. Do you think the UK should bight the bullet and get on with it antdthe possibility of another full lockdown there is an over reaction? As for "You are gonna have Covid anyway" why? Smallpox eradicated. Polio eradicated. Measles, get a jab and you won't get measles. These are all viruses.

So is Herpes and that has never been eradicated despite best efforts so that leaves us with a conundrum of what the best thing to do is. A  question that at the moment some of the best brains in the world can not fully answer with 100% confidence., only follow what is currently considered best practice by those health experts. Worrying that, but more worrying is that the tinpot soldiers in charge here appear to ignore all best practice.

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I just follow the data

Yes, you follow the data given to you by the corrupt Thai government. Time to wake up and smell the coffee.

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

No one knows what that level is, and we will not know until it is achieved unfortunately, may be years.....do you remember the swine flu from the 1976, it lead to a mass vaccination program as well and well........

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/87/6/09-040609/en/

And your point is ..........................?

8 minutes ago, bluedoc said:

Yes, you follow the data given to you by the corrupt Thai government. Time to wake up and smell the coffee.

No one here seriously disputes the hospital walk-in case numbers. Do you?

 

2 minutes ago, Excel said:

So is Herpes and that has never been eradicated despite best efforts so that leaves us with a conundrum of what the best thing to do is. A  question that at the moment some of the best brains in the world can not fully answer with 100% confidence., only follow what is currently considered best practice by those health experts. Worrying that, but more worrying is that the tinpot soldiers in charge here appear to ignore all best practice.

Yes viruses are still around but not in pandemic, life threatening proportions. As for the fools here the massive floods in 2011 when the US said they would help but the Thai govt said we don't need help (we are Thai) says it all. It's a mentality I believe linked to the "We've never been colonised". Anyone who has been here long enough knows you will never win an arguement with a Thai. They are always right. It's a blinkered and infantile attitude. PM. I'm the PM I will make out I listen but I'm the top dog so sod off.

53 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Thanks, I hadn’t seen that. I note:

 

“The vaccination program allowed researchers to track the real-world effects of mass vaccinations. The preliminary results of the vaccination program showed an 80 percent drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases, an 86 percent drop in hospitalizations and a 95 percent drop in deaths caused by Covid-19, Sofia Moutinho reports for Science magazine. The initial findings, which have not been peer-reviewed, were announced in a press conference on May 31.”

 

once 95% of people had been vaccinated, the above was the result. So the point being made by danderman that “eradication “ is possible, did not happen.

 

Whereas, the point being made that 70% vaccination does not magically produce herd immunity, seems validated.

 

all things being equal, it’s clear that vaccinations reduce cases. But getting to 70% vaccinated is not a silver bullet imho 

 

 

You are beating up a straw man.

 

There is no scientific consensus that 70% is the magic level of immunity to beat Covid. I don't pretend to know what the appropriate level of immunity to eradicate the virus.  Dr. Fauci has talked about 85%.

39 minutes ago, Excel said:

 

Unfortunately this government has no more concern about the people in the South then those in the North.

Maybe it's time to be concerned about the South https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021/06/18/covid-19-6440-new-cases-on-friday-june-18   <And with about half the population of Thailand.

Edited June 18, 20215 yr by morrobay

1 hour ago, pookondee said:

Probably nothing.

But like me and a lot of other people keep saying..

You are gonna have Covid anyway.

 

So:

a. Have Covid, and learn to deal with it.

OR

b. Have Covid, and also have to deal with ruined economies, 100% of lives effected,

suicides, shortages in the food chain,  job losses...mass depression of people..

 

on and on it will go, if this is allowed to go on like this

 

Time to bite the bullet and get on with it, or just lie down and let Covid

(or over-reaction to it)

finish us off for good.

You are not making any sense.

 

What I can make out is that you are recommending that Thailand do what India did, and just let the virus run wild. If that is the case, you are one toke over the line.

3 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

What's even more concerning for me is the more people being vaccinated with all these variants, might mean that these vaccines will become less and less effective therefore creating a super spreaders scenario, remember what happened with antibiotics ?

I don't let it concern me as we have been warned about these types of scenarios and with my vivid imagination I would worry myself sick with what might happen so I concentrate on enjoying the time I have with the life I've been allotted.My wife's daughter has just had another kid after having lost one last year because of appendicitis so the kid didn't even get to have it's first breath.That kind of puts my life into perspective for me.The kid could have been saved if they had diagnosed the condition which is not uncommon.Trust the experts they say but the experts are people and people don't always get it right.Like the song says "don't worry be happy".

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

If you are trying to imply that influenza is as deadly as COVID-19, you are seriously deluded. 

 

Cherrypicking data to misinformed people during an epidemic is evil. Please tell me that you aren't intending to fool people about this. 

This study done in Thailand in 2005-2008 show the influenza death rate in Thailand at 0.74% which is comparable to the current death rate of covid in Thailand according to the data and as you keep saying one has to go by the data.So just who is deluded?

 

 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19936224/

Edited June 18, 20215 yr by FarFlungFalang

4 hours ago, beano2274 said:

I bet the Delta variant is going unnoticed in Thailand as the symptons are a bit different, most will think they have a common cold

 

The Delta variant of Covid-19, first identified in India, has changed how the virus is spreading, and the measures governments have to take to stop it. It has also changed the symptoms with a headache, sore throat and runny nose now the most commonly reported

If the other complications with the Indian Variant come to light, people will certainly think they do not have a common Cold.

Black Fungus disease springs to mind. An altogether extremely horrible thing to happen to a person, with a 50 % or more death rate. 

But I am not sure it would apply here in Thailand, as its thought to be brought on by the use of Steroids in a Covid victims treatment.

 

Off topic posts have been removed.

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Standard right wing cost benefit analysis arguement. How about this. Manage the pandemic properly in the short term meaning circuit breaker lockdowns, mass testing and mass vaccinations then your points a. and b. become somewhat redundant. Interestingly the UK which was down to around 500 infections p/d is now with the spread of B.1.617.2 up to 11,000+ p/d. The UK had relaxed restrictions around the same time the delta variant arrived and is now looking at another full lockdown in a country that has vaccinated 80% of the population with one dose and 52% with two doses. Do you think the UK should bight the bullet and get on with it and the possibility of another full lockdown there is an over reaction? As for "You are gonna have Covid anyway" why? Smallpox eradicated. Polio eradicated. Measles, get a jab and you won't get measles. These are all viruses.

Yes but we tried this and that, and now it is 15 months later with economies in ruins and Covid thriving (apparently)

 

So where are we now after all the previous harsh lockdowns??

 

Back to where we started?

 

And who could think any different, with all boffins on the MSM  finding every possible excuse why nothing will work..

Stating because of new strains vaccines dont work..

people will still pass on the disease when vaccinated.

 

They keep giving us doomsday scenarios no matter what happens, so just open up and deal with it already.

Yes, large numbers have died. unfortunate. but they cant die twice

 

 

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Like the song says "don't worry be happy".

 

Absolutely and that singer died of a heart attack age 85, not like some said, i.e. he committed suicide.

9 minutes ago, pookondee said:

Yes but we tried this and that, and now it is 15 months later with economies in ruins and Covid thriving (apparently)

 

So where are we now after all the previous harsh lockdowns??

 

Back to where we started?

 

And who could think any different, with all boffins on the MSM  finding every possible excuse why nothing will work..

Stating because of new strains vaccines dont work..

people will still pass on the disease when vaccinated.

 

They keep giving us doomsday scenarios no matter what happens, so just open up and deal with it already.

Yes, large numbers have died. unfortunate. but they cant die twice

 

 

Then you get the anomaly countries like Australia and New Zealand which being two of the richest per capita countries show casing there method of dealing with it and now have  booming economies and although struggling with their vaccine roll out have shown one way it can be done.Although I disagree with their draconian methods it's hard to deny the results.They have made mistakes but have shown what is possible.

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Then you get the anomaly countries like Australia and New Zealand which being two of the richest per capita countries show casing there method of dealing with it and now have  booming economies and although struggling with their vaccine roll out have shown one way it can be done.Although I disagree with their draconian methods it's hard to deny the results.They have made mistakes but have shown what is possible.

yes but their main aim was to ensure the economy recovers for the benefit of the country rather than this corrupt lot where the sole intent was to pocket as much money as possible for the longest time possible for their own personal benefit.

8 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

Vaccination yes, but they need vaccines that are still effective against the variants. So they need 100 million doses of Pfizer or Moderna, as well as 25000 registered nurses to give the shots.

AstraZeneca is highly effective against the variants:  

 

The new real-world data from Public Health England (PHE) showed that two doses of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had 92% efficiency against hospitalisation in Delta variant cases.

No deaths were reported among those inoculated with the vaccine, the company noted.

Furthermore, the vaccine was effective against the Alpha variant or B.1.1.7 and decreased hospitalisation by 86% with no deaths observed.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaccine-delta-variant/

 

 

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

And your point is ..........................?

That striving for 70% vaccinations in the belief that it achieves herd immunity immediately that level is reached, and from that point on, there is nothing to worry about, is a fallacy.

 

70% is better than 60% and not as good as 80%. It’s a number that in and of its self is meaningless unless one looks at the data behind it.

 

but one hears and sees the government, central and provincial, bandy about 70% herd immunity as though it is the holy grail. It isn’t. It’s a milestone in a long journey.

 

that’s the point.

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

The UK had relaxed restrictions around the same time the delta variant arrived and is now looking at another full lockdown in a country that has vaccinated 80% of the population with one dose and 52% with two doses. Do you think the UK should bight the bullet and get on with it and the possibility of another full lockdown there is an over reaction?

The UK is definitely NOT looking at another full lockdown. Where is your evidence for this? 

On the contrary, the UK is having all restrictions removed on 19th July. Possibly earlier if in a couple of weeks the data suggests that infection rates are not resulting in a proportionate number of deaths. 

43 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Then you get the anomaly countries like Australia and New Zealand which being two of the richest per capita countries show casing there method of dealing with it and now have  booming economies and although struggling with their vaccine roll out have shown one way it can be done.Although I disagree with their draconian methods it's hard to deny the results.They have made mistakes but have shown what is possible.

Agreed. To date both have done well.
 

What’s missing is their end game. How do they transition from the current lockdown at an instant stance, to one where they aren’t always looking over their shoulder, and where people can move in and out of their country relatively freely.

 

They will have to address it eventually

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Agreed. To date both have done well.
 

What’s missing is their end game. How do they transition from the current lockdown at an instant stance, to one where they aren’t always looking over their shoulder, and where people can move in and out of their country relatively freely.

 

They will have to address it eventually

Vaccines is their ticket out of the current situation which they are kindly showing the rest of the world how not to do it, or maybe because they are being kind hearted by waiting for others to have a their turn first since they are coping so well with the virus.The quarantine could be handled even better if they used the mining construction camp type facilities which can be assembled rather quickly and seem to be much better at preventing outbreaks because of the airborne nature of the virus.I spent 12 years in these types of camps and know they can quite good and lots of fresh air which seems to be the ticket with this virus.