Thailand reports 3,682 new COVID-19 cases, 20 deaths

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I had this eureka moment about 3am this morning.

 

We always thought that the testing was being limited to keep the numbers low - which would boost them in the eyes of the world.

 

BUT, I think they have been warehousing the tests for months waiting for tourism. 

 

If the expected 129,000 people came Q3 to Phuket, that equates to some 260,000 tests of tourists. It was recently said they had been expecting 4 million tourists by end Q4 - that may equate to a possible 8 millions tests. 8 million tests is equal to their entire testing program so far.

 

Therefore I'd suggest unless they have a rabbit up their sleeves with testing kits - they must be stock piling test kits in mass for expected tourism ! 

 

Just hope the test kits dont have a use by date

 

Its all in good hands, Siam Bioscience is also producing pcr test kits at 1,500 baht each.............

 

https://thailand.prd.go.th/mobile_detail.php?cid=4&nid=9261

[DrJack54]

15 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Why not? It could just as likely be 3500 and 3500 again....

I go along with your sentiment though, the numbers have remained in a tight band for longer than is credible... we are just beginning to see an upward trend.

If you have very infectious disease and have nothing or very little in place such as lockdowns etc then case numbers will increase. Thailand as very few folk with full inoculation and has very minor controls by way of lockdowns. Consistent daily positives does not make sense.

Meaning the numbers released daily are rubbish.

[anchadian]

New Condition? PM Prayut Chan-o-cha wrote on his Facebook page Sunday that his goal to reopen the country to foreign tourists will only happen if at least 50 million "Thais" received the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. The comment section is disabled. #Thailand

 

 

https://twitter.com/KhaosodEnglish/status/1406501265450827776

 

Edited June 20, 2021 by anchadian

[wensiensheng]

10 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I had this eureka moment about 3am this morning.

 

We always thought that the testing was being limited to keep the numbers low - which would boost them in the eyes of the world.

 

BUT, I think they have been warehousing the tests for months waiting for tourism. 

 

If the expected 129,000 people came Q3 to Phuket, that equates to some 260,000 tests of tourists. It was recently said they had been expecting 4 million tourists by end Q4 - that may equate to a possible 8 millions tests. 8 million tests is equal to their entire testing program so far.

 

Therefore I'd suggest unless they have a rabbit up their sleeves with testing kits - they must be stock piling test kits in mass for expected tourism ! 

 

Just hope the test kits dont have a use by date

 

It’s an interesting point.

 

they may have been stockpiling tests, OR, in true Thai fashion not thought about where they were going to get the tests for tourists from, OR, maybe in their heart of hearts….they know there ain’t going to be any tourists.

 

my bet is on the second, but in any event, you are dead right, getting enough tests for a reasonable amount of tourists will be challenging for them. You can bet they will be pulling them from every province to send to Phuket, just like they did with the vaccines.

[wensiensheng]

53 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Thailand's Vaccine Tracker (June 20, 2021) About 3.17 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, with 5,486,092 (+51,973) people received the first dose, while 2,101,086 (+52,122) received the second dose. #วัคซีนโควิด19 #ฉีดวัคซีน #COVID19 #Thailand #KE

https://twitter.com/KhaosodEnglish/status/1406489010420150282

 

That’s a pitiful daily figure. And they claim they are accelerating the vaccinations, pffifff.

[DrJack54]

4 minutes ago, anchadian said:

"Thais" received the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. The

FIRST dose..

It's always in the fine print.

So first dose folk are inoculated. Brilliant!

[Marvin Hagler]

50 minutes ago, atpeace said:

What number would be more real? 3669, 4000 2000, yawn...  Probably at least 1 out of 300 chance of being identical.  So every 300 days you would have proof.

interested to know how you calculated that? I imagine the chance of an identical number with all of the TRUE factors in play would be at least in the 1 in 10’s of thousands if not 100’s of thousands.

 

Do a consistent number of tests in a sample base where 10% of people are known to have it and you will get very similar numbers every time. It is logical.

[wensiensheng]

4 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

Highly doubtful. What is more likely is that they are lying to make Phuket seem safer than it is. 

Well, IF, the 75% figure is correct, they are in any case lying because the vast majority have only had one jab. And since it’s sinovac, the efficacy is very low.

 

it’s a stupid game to play. Apart from peoples health being at stake, foreign governments aren’t going to be fooled by these spurious claims and I doubt their citizens will be either. And in the meantime Thailand trashes it’s reputation even further.

[wensiensheng]

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

It’s amazing that the people who constantly claimed that the flat numbers were proof that the numbers were fake are not stepping up to say they were wrong.

What a ridiculous post to make.

 

numbers moved sideways at around the 2k level and people were suspicious. Just as about 2k became the norm, cases moved up to around the 2.5k level and went sideways there. Now they have moved up to about 3k and are starting to move sideways at that level.

 

and yet you appear to think it’s a normal trajectory for a highly infectious disease.

 

since you appear to think that the numbers are an accurate representation of cases in Thailand, can you explain why the government suppressed prison cases from April through to, what was it end May? Doesn’t that mean that every number the government reported from April to end May was, in fact, fake?

 

I have no proof that recent numbers are fake, but the authorities have been caught lying before and the trajectory of Thailand’s cases is considered by some to be unusual.

 

just because numbers have moved up, does not mean that they weren’t inaccurate before, or that they aren’t inaccurate now. THAT is the problem when a government gets caught lying. Nobody trusts you.

Edited June 20, 2021 by wensiensheng

[Nojohndoe]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

SINGAPORE — There is a significant risk of "vaccine breakthrough" with the Sinovac vaccine, or CoronaVac, with international evidence showing that many who had taken it were later infected with COVID-19, said the Ministry of Health's (MOH) director of medical services Kenneth Mak on Friday (18 June).

 

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/significant-problems-sinovac-vaccine-other-countries-moh-official-105357031.html

I find no surprise in that given tat the Sinovac  vaccine is known to have a low total efficacy.

I would be interested to see statistics on severity of  post vaccination infection, hospitalization and morbidity. While Sinovac may still fit the "better than nothing" classification it does indicate that better alternatives should be a high priority.

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

 

Very worrying. Basically Sinovac is next to useless against anything but initial few variants. Anyone having Sinovac should immediately get AZ or similar

 

And, perhaps partially because the Chinese are known to have been working on the vaccine well before the news escaped to the world that the virus was running rampant. 

 

The west should send China no vaccines for the variants. 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Fex Bluse

[club]

5 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

3682 today....and yesterday 3667. Amazing, that's all i can say. 

This is what happens when you wait to long to order vaccines. Its going to get worse if they dont get a mass quantity of vaccines. Not 500,000 here or 1 million here of sinovac  

[sapson]

2 hours ago, Caldera said:

Thailand either won't be able to do so at all or will need to factor in quarantine upon their return to their home country.

 

Yep if the reality of Thailands head in a sandbox miniscule testing program and lying about vaccine numbers becomes too evident worldwide ,then in the case of the UK they could be upgraded from amber risk essential travel only to red list..........this would involve mandatory quarantine in a government assigned hotel with a pre paid cost of 1700 pound to the person returning.

[jacob29]

4 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

You don't get these figures with virtually no measures in place. Very slow roll out of vaccines.

Are the measures in Japan currently all that different? They're down from a peak of 7000 to 1500.

 

I don't think no measures in place is accurate. Anecdotally the volume of people I come near daily is massively lower, easily 90%+. Also my hotel used to be packed with guests from Bangkok each weekend. There is none of that now. We knew the new variants would be harder to contain, and that's what we're seeing. Previous measures that had numbers drop, are only slowing numbers this time.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, bluedoc said:

Of course they are wrong. Don’t test, don’t find. Most of the cases in that number are walk ins.

Are the hospital walk-in case numbers wrong? 

[Danderman123]

50 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

What a ridiculous post to make.

 

numbers moved sideways at around the 2k level and people were suspicious. Just as about 2k became the norm, cases moved up to around the 2.5k level and went sideways there. Now they have moved up to about 3k and are starting to move sideways at that level.

 

and yet you appear to think it’s a normal trajectory for a highly infectious disease.

 

since you appear to think that the numbers are an accurate representation of cases in Thailand, can you explain why the government suppressed prison cases from April through to, what was it end May? Doesn’t that mean that every number the government reported from April to end May was, in fact, fake?

 

I have no proof that recent numbers are fake, but the authorities have been caught lying before and the trajectory of Thailand’s cases is considered by some to be unusual.

 

just because numbers have moved up, does not mean that they weren’t inaccurate before, or that they aren’t inaccurate now. THAT is the problem when a government gets caught lying. Nobody trusts you.

You claim that the trajectory of the epidemic is changing, based on the government's numbers, which you say are fake. 

[Danderman123]

39 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

And, perhaps partially because the Chinese are known to have been working on the vaccine well before the news escaped to the world that the virus was running rampant. 

 

The west should send China no vaccines for the variants. 

The Chinese allegedly had a headstart on developing a vaccine, but produced the world's worst vaccine. 

[DrJack54]

9 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Are the measures in Japan currently all that different? They're down from a peak of 7000 to 1500

Go look at the graphs for Japan. No flat consistent numbers for 2021

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

If you have very infectious disease and have nothing or very little in place such as lockdowns etc then case numbers will increase. Thailand as very few folk with full inoculation and has very minor controls by way of lockdowns. Consistent daily positives does not make sense.

Meaning the numbers released daily are rubbish.

Then why are hospital walk-in cases so relatively consistent? Why aren't there long lines of people waiting to be admitted to hospitals? 

 

The Chonburi numbers are published here every day? Are they fake? 

 

The reality is that very few countries test widely, so that even a number like 80,000 infections in Brazil per day is just the tip of the iceberg. Even when the US was reporting 300,000 daily cases, there was no mass random testing. What that means is only the sickest people were identified, or their closest contacts. Constant whining about lack of testing is tiresome, because Thailand's testing practices are common in the Real World. 

 

They don't test enough, but get over it. 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Danderman123

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Are the measures in Japan currently all that different? They're down from a peak of 7000 to 1500.

 

I don't think no measures in place is accurate. Anecdotally the volume of people I come near daily is massively lower, easily 90%+. Also my hotel used to be packed with guests from Bangkok each weekend. There is none of that now. We knew the new variants would be harder to contain, and that's what we're seeing. Previous measures that had numbers drop, are only slowing numbers this time.

If you're going to bring Japan in your example to compare with Thailand then what variant is the dominant one there? 

 

As it makes a huge difference in how well and how quickly measures work.

 

If you don't know the variant then your example is misleading

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Can't we  just save time and say about 3500  a  day for the next  month and about 30  dead then we dont need  this repetitive stuff  daily.

Why? Is it boring you? If so just don't participate in the Covid forum, plenty of others to read and get into discussions with others.

[DrJack54]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Constant whining about lack of testing is tiresome, because Thailand's testing practices are common in the Real World

I haven't mentioned testing once!

 

As far as being tiresome look at how many folk respond to your daily 'stuff' over many weeks. Now that's seriously tiresome

[meltonpie]

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Then why are hospital walk-in cases so relatively consistent? Why aren't there long lines of people waiting to be admitted to hospitals? 

 

The Chonburi numbers are published here every day? Are they fake? 

 

The reality is that very few countries test widely, so that even a number like 80,000 infections in Brazil per day is just the tip of the iceberg. Even when the US was reporting 300,000 daily cases, there was no mass random testing. What that means is only the sickest people were identified, or their closest contacts. Constant whining about lack of testing is tiresome, because Thailand's testing practices are common in the Real World. 

 

They don't test enough, but get over it. 

Why do you want them to test more?

[DavisH]

4 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

I don't mention the new case numbers to my gf.

She goes off. Reminds me of that movie Conspiracy Theory with Mel Gibson.

She starts ranting about the numbers all bs and that Government playing game.....etc. BTW She maintains numbers higher. She not denial person. 

States........ why farang so stupid cannot see this.

I just sip my coffee. Never throw kerosene on a fire.

 

Even if the testing numbers/cases are bs, just watch the change in the daily number of deaths. Or is there a government conspiracy to cover those up as well? The deaths are trackng the number of cases - relatively flat. 

[realfunster]

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

What do you mean by"offices" in Bangkok? Most offices have remained open and just allowed some staff to work from home. But the vast majority have remained open.

 

I can only speak of my own experiences and observations.

 

We followed the government “advice” received by the JFCCT and passed on to foreign companies and shut immediately after Songkran. Of course, we have a skeleton crew of 20 out of 500 keeping things ticking over but the office is ‘closed’ to all intents and purposes. A number of friends working at other Thai & foreign companies are under the same arrangement. Of course, this is a luxury afforded to some office workers as remote working can still be relatively productive. Other industries may require more physical presence at retail sites, factories etc.

 

Obviously, I don’t know what everyone is doing but I believe most foreign and larger Thai companies are primarily remote working. This sentiment was reinforced by my first office visit for 2 months last week, very light rush hour traffic (half my usual commuting time) and a largely deserted office building greeting me upon arrival. 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Even if the testing numbers/cases are bs, just watch the change in the daily number of deaths. Or is there a government conspiracy to cover those up as well? The deaths are trackng the number of cases - relatively flat. 

Thats a very good question, do you know how they classify the deaths here in Thailand, ie what is a covid death, if you recover from covid in hospital but then come off a ventilator only to die with infection is that a covid death?

 

If you have a non-communicable disease and covid then die, what is the classification? Has that classification been changing?

Edited June 20, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Danderman123]

16 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

I haven't mentioned testing once!

 

 

Why are the daily numbers rubbish? 

[Danderman123]

16 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

Why do you want them to test more?

If they tested more, they would discover new clusters sooner. 

[Bkk Brian]

Covid-19, highest number since start of new round of infections in April

Large cluster at a migrant community dormitory in Soi Ratchaprasit Mueang Chonburi 66 cases

2. Foreign migrant workers camp, Si Racha district, 55 cases
3. Risky occupation that meets a lot of people 2 cases
4. Close contact with confirmed patients, traveling from Bangkok, 4 cases
5. Online bars, Soi 6, Bang Lamung District, 1 person
6. Close contact with confirmed patients from 5 new market clusters
7. Close contact of a confirmed patient (in a market in Sattahip) 8 cases
8. Overall close contacts of confirmed patients:
   11 family members
   3 co-workers
9. Close contact of confirmed patients (Which is under investigation) 6 cases
10. 14 cases are under investigation in general

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/06/20/chonburi-announces-175-cases-of-covid-19-highest-number-since-start-of-new-round-of-infections-in-april/

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Can't we  just save time and say about 3500  a  day for the next  month and about 30  dead then we dont need  this repetitive stuff  daily.

No, because the numbers may change to 4,000 a day or higher. The daily numbers are largely based on hospital walk-in cases, and those are increasing. We could get to the point where hospital admissions are maxed out, which can be observed by ambulances driving patients around for hours, or long queues at hospitals.