10,000 cases per day by year’s end not out of the question, senior doctor says

[webfact]

 

By Cod Satrusayang

 

Thailand could see 10,000 Covid-19 cases per day by the year’s end unless the vaccination rate picks up, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer on Monday.

 

The country is currently seeing close to 6,000 cases per day with +6,082 cases on Monday. The number has risen steadily from some 2,000 cases per day in early May.

 

Now a doctor at Siriraj Hospital say that a combination of unrestricted travel and the Delta variant of the virus could have the country facing 10,000 cases a day by year’s end.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/29372/10000-cases-per-day-by-years-end-not-out-of-the-question-senior-doctor-says/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-07-05

 

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[Excel]

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

[RandolphGB]

Another reason to open up soon and learn to live with cases. 

 

 

[internationalism]

from the recent data looks like 1000 new cases per week, now hoovering just above 6k.

So 10k would be in a less than a month.

What is most important, how many people die, how well health service is prepared for that many patients

Edited July 5, 2021 by internationalism

[RotBenz8888]

8 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand could see 10,000 Covid-19 cases per day by the year’s

Maybe we're already there.... some more testing it's all it takes. 

[smedly]

6 minutes ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

my guess is we have far exceeded that number already, maybe he means symptomatic cases - people who need medical treatment 

[Whale]

6 minutes ago, RandolphGB said:

Another reason to open up soon and learn to live with cases. 

 

 

I would agree, looking at the UK's new figures, but opening up would need at least 60% vaccinated if they are to achieve what the UK seems to be doing (herd immunity through vaccination effectively stopping deaths rather than transmissions).

 

The vaccinations need to be stepped up big time, especially for the vulnerable. 

[ThailandRyan]

I expected the article to read by weeks end as that is when another prominent doctor stated we could expect to see it as the numbers climbed last week.

[4MyEgo]

22 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand could see 10,000 Covid-19 cases per day by the year’s end unless the vaccination rate picks up, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer on Monday.

 

He must mean by end July, i.e. if they tested more people than they are currently doing, because we all know there are more than 10,000 cases a day at the moment, not tested.

[chalawaan]

My bet is on 10K by the end of the MONTH! 

 

If this is the strategic thinking of the top healthcare people, the place is screwed!

 

Tho I suspect it's been vastly understated to stop panic, misleading the people generally does not end well, as we sink ever deeper into the morass of their own making.

[tingtong]

Must applaud the propaganda optimism here.

 

Tourist and vaccine numbers continuously overestimated,

Covid cases and economic impact continously underestimated.

 

A rude awakening looming when the game is over, and time to face the reality.

[teacherofwoe]

So, about 19 years for the entire population to get it. 

[mtls2005]

Given the weak vaccination plan(s), 10,000 per day at years end will the 9th wave winding down.

 

 

 

 

[law ling]

Not until "year's end"? ... it must be a Thai thing: so grossly underestimate a problem that the listener knows what way the wind is really blowing ... but thereby: no one loses face, and no generals' feelings are hurt.

[Bluespunk]

14 minutes ago, teacherofwoe said:

So, about 19 years for the entire population to get it. 

Yes because that’s how it works, the number of cases plateaus at 10,000 and holds steady there…

 

(sarcasm)

Edited July 5, 2021 by Bluespunk

[JonnyF]

10,000 by the end of the month is not out of the question.

 

Almost inevitable by the end of August.

[sammieuk1]

Average 24k a day in the UK with a 85% first dose and 64% second dose there is some far fetched optimisum in 10k a day by Christmas 

[Boomer6969]

10000 a day by years end? Well this could be the case.. after hitting a 50000 on the way. The Indian data may give us an idea of how fast things can change.

worldometers/India

Edited July 5, 2021 by Boomer6969

[RichardColeman]

OK, so let's assume it is 10k at the end of the year - that will put Thailand on red lists all over the world until Easter minimum,  

 

Better start looking at upping that financial budget now for a disaster next year too then

[ericdiam]

By this month end and by year end easily 100000 a day. If these stupid government continues the way they play now 

[Hockeybik]

India has done pretty well using alternatives like ivermectin and hydroxychlorquine to stop the spread in their country.

 https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/06/india-could-sentence-who-chief-scientist-to-death-for-misleading-over-ivermectin-and-killing-indians.html

[Moonfire]

Could have focused the vaccine for Phuket to the hotspots in Bangkok in an attempt to suppress the spread and keep the hospitals from being crushed.

 

Now you got 1,300 tourist and a country that is about to burn up with delta variant. 

 

No smiles for Thailand for another year I am afraid. Very sad! 

 

[SuwadeeS]

... because, they do not really vaccinate the people.

They only talk, talk, and talk.

[TheFishman1]

What a very optimistic number but then again I guess they don’t test that many people every day here I wonder what the real numbers are much much higher meanwhile foreign people that live here including myself have not been able to receive the Vaccine do you think they’d be doing everything possible to roll out the vaccine to everybody in Thailand TIT

[Thunglom]

3 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

Another reason to open up soon and learn to live with cases. 

 

 

the problem is that's per day. 

With a largely unvaccinated population the cases will result in a large number of deaths and hospitalisations - not to mention long covid etc.......I doubt if the Thai economy, however open will be able to cope.

With that number of cases things like the tourist trade won't open up anyway as very few will want to visit a country rife with Covid.

[outsider]

This 'senior doctor from Siriraj Hospital' is a bit too optimistic, I guess. Just look at how figures in Malaysia spiked because of somewhat-unrestricted travel. And these were just local interstate travels! Of course, that country's political turmoil didn't help, but that's a different discussion. Fact of the matter is, if Thailand isn't careful, 10,000 new cases per day will come sooner rather than later, and way, way before the year is out.

Edited July 5, 2021 by outsider

[natway09]

The "ho hum" almost Australian "she'tll be right mate" or "mai pen rai" attitude by the encumbant

Government in their hesitancy in ordering, bickering over who gets who & negativity   to paying top price for vaccines with immediate delivery prospects is getting close to tantamount to murder.

What is the local Company Siam BioScience actually doing ? Are they so busy manufacturing & selling to overseas or have they just failed to produce ?

We need a daily or at least weekly summary of

                                     !st vaccine administered               Total No 

                                            Type (Local or imported)           ?

                                      2nd vaccine administered            Total No

                                             Type (local or imported)            ?

As thay say it is time to keep the ba,,,,,,,s honest

[robsamui]

You're kidding! I know Thai education is of a very poor quality, but, surely, any idiot must realise that a pandemic doesn't multiply arithmetically, but geometrically

 

It doesn't go month 1  = 2,000 infections, month 2 = 3,000 infections, month 3 = 4,000 infections . . . it goes 2,000, 4,000, 8,000, 16,000 and so on.

 

In the last 6 or 7 weeks it's gone from around 2,000 a day to 6,000 a day.

 

With that kind of progression we'll be on 10,000 a day by next MONTH! Not next year!

 

OH! No, sorry, we won't. Because The Gov is only resting random samples in areas where Covid is being reported. The rest of the general populace is being ignored. Right! As you were, men! 10,000 by the end of the year. We're on target.  Very good. Carry on.

Edited July 5, 2021 by robsamui

[malibukid]

the vaccination rate will only pick up when enough brown envelopes are delivered. this is just the way things are done here.  show me the money, get in line  and i will green light your vaccine.  life is cheap in this part of the world.

[malibukid]

17 minutes ago, outsider said:

This 'senior doctor from Siriraj Hospital' is a bit too optimistic, I guess. Just look at how figures in Malaysia spiked because of somewhat-unrestricted travel. And these were just local interstate travels! Of course, that country's political turmoil didn't help, but that's a different discussion. Fact of the matter is, if Thailand isn't careful, 10,000 new cases per day will come sooner rather than later, and way, way before the year is out.

kiss the tourist season goodbye if this happens.

Edited July 5, 2021 by malibukid