Phuket Sandbox on two-week ‘watch’

[oldcpu]

59 minutes ago, DaveC said:

The reason I made the comment regarding the new cpu is quite apparent.

Yes - to me it is apparent it was intended as an insult.  So lets leave insults aside.

 

59 minutes ago, DaveC said:

 

Whilst I understand you are interested and motivated, asking repeatedly for references for everything is becoming a bit tedious.

If either of us wanted to spend the time doing, which I believe neither of us want to do, we likely could come up with dozens of cases of those on the forum who simply make up percentages or make up other claims, putting axe grinding spins on what is actually in place, and say such spins as if the information was official. 

 

Further, there are case where what they claim is in fact what was indeed in the press, but if one researches what the press stated, one learns that the press posted was simply wrong.  But at least it shows then the poster (of the false press information) was not making up information.

 

If one does not obtain the reference, it is IMHO very difficult to sort out the actual truth. 

 

59 minutes ago, DaveC said:

 

Regarding the issue of efficacy of vaccines, the exponential spread of the disease is the bigger issue at the moment and the Sinovac program is not effective at that.

The UK , which had a relative high % of people vaccinated, also experienced a very strong spread of the pandemic in a new wave - yet the # of deaths were a fraction of what took place in previous waves.  It goes to show that some of the vaccines (AstraZeneca I think in the case of the UK) have very high efficacies in preventing death, but are not so good at preventing infections.   Sinovac, similar to AstraZeneca, has decent efficacy in preventing major illness and preventing death, but very clearly is not good in preventing the spread of the pandemic.

 

Sadly even Pfizer (which I consider to be a superior vaccine) is not very good at preventing the spread of the Delta variant.

 

IMHO it all goes back to when the vaccines were developed, their main purpose was to prevent (reduce the risk of) major illness and death, but not so much designed to preventing infection.  This is true for all of the vaccines, and not just Sinovac and AstraZeneca.

 

So I believe we are seeing the consequence of that vaccine design. 

 

I wish that more statistics were provided on the seriousness of the infected cases in Thailand. ie. in the daily numbers, what # (or %) had no symptoms, what # (or %) had minor symptoms, what # (or %) had major symptoms, and what # (or %) were vaccinated, with what vaccine, and how many jabs?   That information is not being provided, and I assume that is a policy decision not to provide such.    At present I don't understand that policy.

[Espanol]

58 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

So I believe we are seeing the consequence of that vaccine design. 

All viruses mutate to be more contagious but less deadly, since that is the best spread strategy.  

 

Covid-19 is doing the same and we can clearly see how the delta strain is much more contagious but much less deadly.

[it is what it is]

The Phuket Sandbox scheme will continue for at least two more weeks while officials monitor the fallout from the rise in COVID-19 infections across the island, Dr Khajonsak Kaewjarat, Deputy Director of the Department of Disease Control (DDC), has confirmed.

 

who's going to plan a holiday in phuket with this uncertaintity?

[Sharp]

1 hour ago, it is what it is said:

The Phuket Sandbox scheme will continue for at least two more weeks while officials monitor the fallout from the rise in COVID-19 infections across the island, Dr Khajonsak Kaewjarat, Deputy Director of the Department of Disease Control (DDC), has confirmed.

 

who's going to plan a holiday in phuket with this uncertaintity?

Not many and the fact Nok Air have increased flights  Phuket to Pattaya to meet demand just shows these arrivals are not tourists but returnees using the Sandbox as the easiest way back to their homes etc. 

[NanLaew]

7 hours ago, stevenl said:

Who are 'we'?

The handle on arrivals by sea were and are the same as land arrivals.

As always @stevenl, a citation of how Phuket's 'port control' was at least as rigid as that displayed on the causeway would be handy.

 

When it comes to the 'handle' you speak of, the coastline of Thailand is as porous as their jungle borders with Myanmar.

[drenddy]

One must be really naive to think that Covid cases will not go up, once you open the borders.It is an assumed risk, however I don't think the tourists are the ones who drive the numbers up.

 

Anyways, they need to accept it or they can continue with this vicious and naive approach : holding the tourists 2 weeks in Phuket, while initially agreed to 7 days, milking their pockets by asking to pay for 3 PCR tests and, at a same time, ignoring completely the risk from domestic visitors.

[The Hammer2021]

On 7/30/2021 at 3:25 AM, RichardColeman said:

Be fair, we know how they are making decisions.....

Rather like the UK government but minus the massive death rate!

[stevenl]

3 hours ago, drenddy said:

One must be really naive to think that Covid cases will not go up, once you open the borders.It is an assumed risk, however I don't think the tourists are the ones who drive the numbers up.

 

Anyways, they need to accept it or they can continue with this vicious and naive approach : holding the tourists 2 weeks in Phuket, while initially agreed to 7 days, milking their pockets by asking to pay for 3 PCR tests and, at a same time, ignoring completely the risk from domestic visitors.

They're not continuing with that approach, or did you miss the new, much stricter, entry requirements? Virtually impossible to enter Thailand now.

[stevenl]

6 hours ago, NanLaew said:

As always @stevenl, a citation of how Phuket's 'port control' was at least as rigid as that displayed on the causeway would be handy.

 

When it comes to the 'handle' you speak of, the coastline of Thailand is as porous as their jungle borders with Myanmar.

Just look at the piers and see what is happening.

[Lucky Bones]

Anyone who fell for this tourist scam gets what they deserve.

Possibly ok for returnees. But I wouldn't know.

Just a casual observer.

[stevenl]

57 minutes ago, stevenl said:

They're not continuing with that approach, or did you miss the new, much stricter, entry requirements? Virtually impossible to enter Thailand now.

Sorry, should of course be 'virtually impossible to enter Phuket now'.

[pagallim]

7 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Rather like the UK government but minus the massive death rate!

And the massive vaccination programme which has allowed the UK to return pretty much to normality.

[zzzzz]

11 hours ago, NanLaew said:

As always @stevenl, a citation of how Phuket's 'port control' was at least as rigid as that displayed on the causeway would be handy.

 

When it comes to the 'handle' you speak of, the coastline of Thailand is as porous as their jungle borders with Myanmar.

guess u have not been out in a boat>
marine patrols the sea around Phuket, when u depart phuket you must sign out with a list of who is on the boat PLUS where your going>  Cant drop anchor on any of the little islands off phuket
on return  repeat the sign in> 
only allowed max 2 kms off shore as well :
the marine patrol is doing a great job<

The current situation can be 90% attributed to the ineffectiveness of the checking at the bridge!!!

Edited August 1, 2021 by zzzzz

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, zzzzz said:

guess u have not been out in a boat>
marine patrols the sea around Phuket, when u depart phuket you must sign out with a list of who is on the baot PLUS where ur gloing>
on return  repeat the sign in> 
only allowed max 2 kms off shore as well :
the marine patrol is doing a great job<

The current situation can be 90% attributed to the ineffectiveness of the checking at the bridge!!!

Pure speculation as to the bridge.  Do you have proof or a link to show that this is where the infections on Phuket came from.  Unfortunately you and a few others believe that Covid Free Phuket could never have cases. I beg to differ, and have many friends on the island noth Thai and expat who also believe the same way.  If you can provide proof to me that the cases arrived via the bridge then I will admit my error.

[crazykopite]

I’m at a loss to understand how international aircraft can burden the cost of flying into Phuket with so few passengers unless someone is subsidising them and if this were the case that would be utter madness.

[Espanol]

7 hours ago, zzzzz said:

The current situation can be 90% attributed to the ineffectiveness of the checking at the bridge!!!

I would rather say the daily changing rules and the former relaxed requirements for Thais entering Phuket from the mainland. 

[Espanol]

6 hours ago, crazykopite said:

I’m at a loss to understand how international aircraft can burden the cost of flying into Phuket with so few passengers unless someone is subsidising them and if this were the case that would be utter madness.

Turkish Airlines already cancelled flights to Phuket. 

 

I had booked with them for September and now I must get a new ticket with Qatar Airways. 

 

[stevenl]

7 hours ago, crazykopite said:

I’m at a loss to understand how international aircraft can burden the cost of flying into Phuket with so few passengers unless someone is subsidising them and if this were the case that would be utter madness.

Today Qatar airways 95% full.

[ThailandRyan]

31 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Today Qatar airways 95% full.

Full of what?, cargo, or people.  Show us the link where the numbers of passengers is shown please.  With the numbers shown by Immigration and TA it averages out to under 430 arrivals a day for the first month.  So I would be very doubtful that planes were 95% full, since the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with seating for 22 passengers in Business Class and 232 in Economy Class used to Phuket seats a total of 254 people, but then maybe only two airlines are flying in a day and they are at 95% capacity.  Flight Radar does show more than 2 flights scheduled just for this evening alone, yet earlier today more flights arrived

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[mtls2005]

30 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Today Qatar airways 95% full.

But those seats (300 if the 95% figure is accurate) were booked at least a few weeks ago.

 

There were at least eight five wide-bodies today, LHR & ZRH on TG, AUH, DXB, DOH.

 

It looks like EY and EK have BKK-HKT-AUH and DXB tonight.

Edited August 1, 2021 by mtls2005

[Rhacsyn]

Helloooo. It's not really important, don't know who to reply to so I will just post! The daily arrivals of "people" varied between 250 and 630 for the month of July. The main carriers by numbers are Qatar, Emirates, El Al and Singapore airlines. Etihad and Thai airlines generally carry less "people". Passenger numbers are can be verified on Flight radar for in flight planes for anybody that interested. Emirates numbers I can check directly.

 

If any of the "sponsored" airlines (Qatar especially, and to a lesser extent Emirates) reduced their flight frequency or stopped then that we be a sure indicator for me that things were slowing down.

[stevenl]

49 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Full of what?, cargo, or people.  Show us the link where the numbers of passengers is shown please.  With the numbers shown by Immigration and TA it averages out to under 430 arrivals a day for the first month.  So I would be very doubtful that planes were 95% full, since the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with seating for 22 passengers in Business Class and 232 in Economy Class used to Phuket seats a total of 254 people, but then maybe only two airlines are flying in a day and they are at 95% capacity.  Flight Radar does show more than 2 flights scheduled just for this evening alone, yet earlier today more flights arrived

 

I was on that flight myself.  But hey, you probably think you know better anyway, just as you think you know better about what's happening than the people staying here.

[Pattaya Spotter]

On 7/31/2021 at 3:29 PM, Espanol said:

All viruses mutate to be more contagious but less deadly, since that is the best spread strategy.  

 

Covid-19 is doing the same and we can clearly see how the delta strain is much more contagious but much less deadly.

Yep...makes no evolutionary sense for a virus to mutate to become more lethal and kill off all its hosts. Like the common cold (coronavirus) virus, it wants its hosts to go on living (with slight annoyance) so the virus can spread indefinitely. 

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Yep...makes no evolutionary sense for a virus to mutate to become more lethal and kill off all its hosts. Like the common cold (coronavirus) virus, it wants its hosts to go on living (with slight annoyance) so the virus can spread indefinitely. 

That would be evolution by design which does not occur outside of breeding (dogs, horses etc). 

Viruses exist in an environment of evolution by chance. Or in this case evolution kickstarted by a poor bio containment conditions followed by evolution by chance. 

 

There have been a lot of variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, only a few have become variants of concern with most become variants with the same or less potency. The same goes for antigenic drift of the virus into a variant which has far higher potency and is far more dangerous. 

 

Consider SARS-CoV-1 and MERS, both Coronaviruses with Case Fatality Rates of ±10% and ±30% respectively, fortunately both were far less transmissible. 

 

So, while you are correct, the perfect virus would be one which is not pathogenic, one which exists in a perfect state of symbiogenesis with its host, this occurs not through ‘design’ but by chance.

 

Such viruses exist in our bodies, the reality the human body needs these viruses - we’d last about 36 hours without the existence of viruses. 

 

 

The real concern with antiviral vaccines, is not what they do to us, but what they do the symbiogenic viruses within us, the viruses we need. 

 

I’ve not heard this argument once from anti-vaxxers ever, probably because anti-vaxxers only pay attention to the hysterical anti-vax media which relies on neuroticism rather than logical fact.  

 

I’ve digressed.... In simple terms: Viruses evolve through antigenic drift, its a ‘drift, a slight change here or there, a mini-mutation which survives and passes on, or not. Mostly it would not change anything, mostly it makes the virus less dangerous, sometimes it makes a virus more severe. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

41 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

So, while you are correct, the perfect virus would be one which is not pathogenic, one which exists in a perfect state of symbiogenesis with its host, this occurs not through ‘design’ but by chance.

 

All evolution occurs through chance by natural selection..."design" has nothing to do with it. 

[metisdead]

Posts with links to the Bangkok Post have been removed:

 

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[impulse]

7 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

All evolution occurs through chance by natural selection..."design" has nothing to do with it. 

You missed the fact that a lot of "evolution" nowadays is driven in the lab, and is by design. 

 

Bayer (Monsanto) has built a business on steering evolution by selective breeding.  So has Tyson and Perdue.  "Gain of function" has also been in the news.  That's all lab driven evolution.

 

Viruses in nature may evolve toward more contagious and less lethal variations, but we're not seeing nature at work.  That takes years, decades, centuries and millennia.  We're seeing Big Pharma and biological weapons labs (among others) messing with Mother Nature.

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by impulse

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

You missed the fact that a lot of "evolution" nowadays is driven in the lab, and is by design. 

 

Viruses in nature may evolve toward more contagious and less lethal variations, but we're not seeing nature at work.  That takes years.

 

My operative assumption is Sars-Cov2 is a naturally occurring virus and not a lab engineered or modified one. As for time necessary of evolution to occur, with their replication speed, I believe viruses can evolve in almost real time.

[Lucky Bones]

On 7/29/2021 at 8:32 PM, 2long said:

So, if they DO cancel it, and a family have already booked a trip for the end of August, including paying for flights, visas, COE, insurance and SHA+ hotel, who will foot the bill for refunding all that?

It's a rhetorical question... ????????????????????????

Yup, reset....next scam?

[ThailandRyan]

2 weeks later here we are, so what is the verdict and what are the plans? What did they learn other than local cases are on the rise, and are tourists coming or have they canceled.

 

This article is pretty enlightening

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3145019/stuck-sandbox-thailands-strict-inconsistent-covid-19-rules

 

The sky over Phuket clears, just in time for sunset. A man hurriedly sets out plastic chairs in the sand on Patong Beach in the hopes that a passing tourist might want to sit and sip a nice cold drink while watching the natural spectacle. But no one comes.

It’s the same elsewhere: Once-full beaches have become lonely bays, temples and monuments that attracted many visitors are now deserted