4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

. Family was told she is recovered but still needs to isolate for two more weeks and take the medicines she was released with.

Exact same thing with my Thai friend.

Has wife and 2 kids had just decided to "isolate" at home.........

Hardly isolation and why for another 2 weeks. Seems rubber stamp process.

Confirmation on the official dashboard that they are not counting positive rapid tests as part of daily totals.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Confirmation on the official dashboard that they are not counting positive rapid tests as part of daily totals.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

Well spotted.

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Confirmation on the official dashboard that they are not counting positive rapid tests as part of daily totals.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

As we knew and figured. Let's see what today's isolated at home cases are shown as in the stats, and then we can compare them to yesterday's numbers to get an idea. The issue is those shown as recovered but still isolating like my GFs daughter.

How can we have a new record when we have restricted movement at night, and all the malls closed? Hmmm. I just would have never guessed. 
 

and for all the true plebs, of course they will lay down some new restriction in a couple of weeks, the numbers will drops, and all the plebs be like “oh see, locking down the _____ had an impact”. There is good data in ur right now where cases dropped, but they did not lockdown. 

13 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

I never get this! They write same every time. Records again, today AUG 6!!!!! They don´t have todays numbers yet! 

The numbers are from yesterday. How can you post today's numbers until today is finished hence today's numbers will be released tomorrow. Same for all countries.

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Confirmation on the official dashboard that they are not counting positive rapid tests as part of daily totals.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

we all knew this already and like I said yesterday - this makes a total farce out of these daily figures - they are meaningless

 

They also said that they had a 20% detection rate from the antigen tests, extrapolate that out to the population and you start to get close to the real numbers in Thailand 

 

Several people on here and including the PM were pointing the finger at other countries such as the UK claiming they had it much worse than Thailand 

 

THE UK TESTS 1 MILLION PEOPLE PER DAY

 

The infection detection rate in Thailand is directly related to the number of PCR tests and the type of testing i.e. targetted, many on here have been saying this for months  

Edited August 6, 20214 yr by smedly

9 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Exact same thing with my Thai friend.

Has wife and 2 kids had just decided to "isolate" at home.........

Hardly isolation and why for another 2 weeks. Seems rubber stamp process.

 

With the hospital system in many areas at the breaking point, I guess the question becomes --  are these people being sent home by the government actually "recovered," or, are they just being "released,"  like you do with water when a dam is overfilled and in danger of catastrophe?

 

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Confirmation on the official dashboard that they are not counting positive rapid tests as part of daily totals.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

So my previous post about being confused about the numbers has some basis. 100,000 in home isolation. How many of these are positive but not counted and how many are being isolated per day which if counted would add to daily totals? Are PCR tests being carried out post antigen positives? No other way to view this other than number fudging. Riddle me this Batman: When is a positive not a positive?

Covid deaths in Indonesia cross 100,000 as Asean reports rise in cases

 

Southeast Asia saw an increase in new Covid-19 cases, while deaths were down marginally on Thursday, collated data showed.

https://www.nationthailand.com/international/40004288

 

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

With the hospital system in many areas at the breaking point, I guess the question becomes --  are these people being sent home by the government actually "recovered," or, are they just being "released,"  like you do with water when a dam is overfilled and in danger of catastrophe?

 

You are suggesting that there has been a flurry of triaging by hospitals where anyone who doesn’t need to be hospitalized to survive have been released.

 

I don’t know the breakdown of releases between acute hospitals and field hospitals, so I can’t say.

 

Note to the nitpickers: yes, I know that in standard usage, field hospitals are simply temporary acute facilities, but in LOS, field hospitals are for quarantine purposes only. Mostly.

28 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

I never get this! They write same every time. Records again, today AUG 6!!!!! They don´t have todays numbers yet! 

15 months of the same reporting and you just question this now?

 

Finger. Pulse.

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

With the hospital system in many areas at the breaking point, I guess the question becomes --  are these people being sent home by the government actually "recovered," or, are they just being "released,"  like you do with water when a dam is overfilled and in danger of catastrophe?

 

This is what I said yesterday but the language seems to have reverted back to recovered from that of released from medical care. Real smoke and mirrors stuff at play here to cover up the reality of the situation. Sadly some will not see the deception and take the numbers at face value.

Home Isolation, Community Isolation, aimed at curbing COVID-19 deaths and new infections in Thailand

 

Over the past week, the terms Home Isolation and Community Isolation have been mentioned very often and become familiar to many, as they were adopted as new key strategies to cope with the surge in number of new COVID-19 cases. Hospitals, field hospitals and hospitels are now being overwhelmed by the rapid rise in new infections, while the need to prevent infected people from developing severe symptoms of the disease or dying remains. So does the need to bring down the number of new infections in communities.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004287

I wonder if the discharges vs new cases is being skewed by the use of antigen tests.

 

for example. Petchabun chicken factory reveals 3k positive cases, which are quarantined, but not added to official numbers because of no secondary test being performed. Two weeks later, said 3k positive cases are released from quarantine and thereby make it onto the “discharged from quarantine” list. 
 

medically, this is accurate. They were quarantined, then released from quarantine. But comparisons to official positive cases would be inaccurate since they were never included in that total in the first place.

 

perhaps bubble and seal aren’t doing this, but i believe a lot of people in bangkok get an antigen test and are then placed in a community centre or isolate at home with a minimum of medical supervision. Once their 14 day isolation is ended, they are discharged from quarantine.

 

just a thought.

34 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

I never get this! They write same every time. Records again, today AUG 6!!!!! They don´t have todays numbers yet! 

I think most people realise it is the previous days (official) numbers. 

6 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This is what I said yesterday but the language seems to have reverted back to recovered from that of released from medical care. Real smoke and mirrors stuff at play here to cover up the reality of the situation. Sadly some will not see the deception and take the numbers at face value.

 

As Bob Dylan once famously sang, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

 

6 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Covid deaths in Indonesia cross 100,000 as Asean reports rise in cases

 

Southeast Asia saw an increase in new Covid-19 cases, while deaths were down marginally on Thursday, collated data showed.

https://www.nationthailand.com/international/40004288

 

I realize that numbers go up and down and shouldn't connect dots that are not there....

..good to see Vietnam cases ease to 7,244 and it was trending upwards to over 8,500. 

They have strict lockdown think the curfew is 6pm. 

Not suggesting that for Thailand.

 

All this of course useless without vaccination push.

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

I wonder if the discharges vs new cases is being skewed by the use of antigen tests.

 

for example. Petchabun chicken factory reveals 3k positive cases, which are quarantined, but not added to official numbers because of no secondary test being performed. Two weeks later, said 3k positive cases are released from quarantine and thereby make it onto the “discharged from quarantine” list. 
 

medically, this is accurate. They were quarantined, then released from quarantine. But comparisons to official positive cases would be inaccurate since they were never included in that total in the first place.

 

perhaps bubble and seal aren’t doing this, but i believe a lot of people in bangkok get an antigen test and are then placed in a community centre or isolate at home with a minimum of medical supervision. Once their 14 day isolation is ended, they are discharged from quarantine.

 

just a thought.

If they are not officially recorded via a PCR test, not sure why they would make it onto an official discharge list. Anyway, leaked documents suggest that the cases are 6x underestimated. This makes sense and reflects what is going on in other countries. My concern would be the imporper use of the rapid antigen kits by lay people, and thus giving a negative result. I guess their use is better than not knowing you are infected at all. 

5 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I wonder if the discharges vs new cases is being skewed by the use of antigen tests.

 

for example. Petchabun chicken factory reveals 3k positive cases, which are quarantined, but not added to official numbers because of no secondary test being performed. Two weeks later, said 3k positive cases are released from quarantine and thereby make it onto the “discharged from quarantine” list. 
 

medically, this is accurate. They were quarantined, then released from quarantine. But comparisons to official positive cases would be inaccurate since they were never included in that total in the first place.

 

perhaps bubble and seal aren’t doing this, but i believe a lot of people in bangkok get an antigen test and are then placed in a community centre or isolate at home with a minimum of medical supervision. Once their 14 day isolation is ended, they are discharged from quarantine.

 

just a thought.

If this is the new practice, then as the numbers balloon, dwarfing previous totals, then we would likely reach a point where the number of people released from care is higher than the total number of positive cases.

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

I realize that numbers go up and down and shouldn't connect dots that are not there....

..good to see Vietnam cases ease to 7,244 and it was trending upwards to over 8,500. 

They have strict lockdown think the curfew is 6pm. 

Not suggesting that for Thailand.

 

All this of course useless without vaccination push.

Vietnam is the gold standard of virus protection, they know what they are doing.

 

if Vietnam cannot stop the Delta variant (without vaccination), then no one can. So, if Vietnam gets up past 20,000 cases a day, then I might conclude that there is nothing that Thailand can do, anyway.

 

Apart from the vaccination thing.

1 hour ago, sezze said:

 

Source of data

This data is yesterday's report

I attach a graph of 7 day average covid cases based in this data for Sisaket. Note this will include both locally transmitted cases and imported from deep red. I cannot distinguish. However this trend is quite common in Issan.

 

3 minutes ago, DavisH said:

If they are not officially recorded via a PCR test, not sure why they would make it onto an official discharge list. Anyway, leaked documents suggest that the cases are 6x underestimated. This makes sense and reflects what is going on in other countries. My concern would be the imporper use of the rapid antigen kits by lay people, and thus giving a negative result. I guess their use is better than not knowing you are infected at all. 

 

IHME's latest estimate for Thailand is that in reality, there are likely 70,000 plus cases per day.

 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/thailand?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

 

i'm still supporting the thai official that said he expected the peak in cases in roughly two weeks time.  that was earlier this week.  if it turns out to be 3 or 4 weeks, i wouldn't call his forecast horribly wrong.  i don't see this parabolic move up to continue until or into october (as some suggest).  we all know there are alot more cases than what is reported, that has been the case in all countries.  multiply by 5 or 10 to get the real number ?  that might give a range.  this thing is going to hit everyone it can and then it will fade away temporarily.  just like it has in every other country.  that is why they call it waves.  the death figures will lag the cases a bit, those could still be bad in early september.  we are more than halfway through this wave.   the vaccine drive will help to fight the next wave that arrives.  we will get one as there will still be plenty of unvaxxed for it to feast on.

Even with this new policy of distorting the facts by hiding numbers of infected, the numbers still rise.  By doing what they are doing, however, opens them up to accusations of a cover up through manipulation of who is counted as positive.  Hopefully this will blow up in their faces. A total farce from a total farce of a 'govt'. It is also an admission to numbers being far, far higher than they are telling us. I see occasionally on here people saying that we should have faith in the numbers. Well clearly this is not the case.

17 minutes ago, DavisH said:

If they are not officially recorded via a PCR test, not sure why they would make it onto an official discharge list. Anyway, leaked documents suggest that the cases are 6x underestimated. This makes sense and reflects what is going on in other countries. My concern would be the imporper use of the rapid antigen kits by lay people, and thus giving a negative result. I guess their use is better than not knowing you are infected at all. 

 

I think they might well...

 

Because, although the ATK numbers are NOT counted as official cases, bizarely, they do appear to get counted in the active cases /  under treatment category:

 

From the same MoPH Dashboard webpage (via Google Translate):

 

"Total number of patients being treated : Total number of patients in hospital + Total number of patients in field hospital + Home Isolation and Community Isolation"

 

So what it appears to be saying is, people who test positive via ATK and then end up in home or community isolation get counted as patients under treatment, and then it would only make sense, that they'd be removed from the active case count once no longer in isolation.

 

...even though they may never have become a confirmed infection via an RT-PCR test.

 

 

1 hour ago, smedly said:

you are just as far away stuck in your room with the odd trip to hungry hippos and BigC, you might think you have a finger on the pulse - you very obviously don't

HH been closed for months.Seems your pulse is at zero ????

4 minutes ago, buick said:

i'm still supporting the thai official that said he expected the peak in cases in roughly two weeks time.  that was earlier this week.  if it turns out to be 3 or 4 weeks, i wouldn't call his forecast horribly wrong.  i don't see this parabolic move up to continue until or into october (as some suggest).  we all know there are alot more cases than what is reported, that has been the case in all countries.  multiply by 5 or 10 to get the real number ?  that might give a range.  this thing is going to hit everyone it can and then it will fade away temporarily.  just like it has in every other country.  that is why they call it waves.  the death figures will lag the cases a bit, those could still be bad in early september.  we are more than halfway through this wave.   the vaccine drive will help to fight the next wave that arrives.  we will get one as there will still be plenty of unvaxxed for it to feast on.

If this is this case then it's only because positives are now being moved off the positive list even though they are still positive and 10s of thousands of positives will not even be reported as such and not make daily figures. They have moved the goal posts to suit their agenda.

7 minutes ago, buick said:

i'm still supporting the thai official that said he expected the peak in cases in roughly two weeks time.  that was earlier this week.  if it turns out to be 3 or 4 weeks, i wouldn't call his forecast horribly wrong.  i don't see this parabolic move up to continue until or into october (as some suggest).  we all know there are alot more cases than what is reported, that has been the case in all countries.  multiply by 5 or 10 to get the real number ?  that might give a range.  this thing is going to hit everyone it can and then it will fade away temporarily.  just like it has in every other country.  that is why they call it waves.  the death figures will lag the cases a bit, those could still be bad in early september.  we are more than halfway through this wave.   the vaccine drive will help to fight the next wave that arrives.  we will get one as there will still be plenty of unvaxxed for it to feast on.

Take a look age TallGuy's projection graphs above your post. If it does peek in say September, it will be from a worst case scenario. In this case it burned through all the easy cases. If not worst case, it could continue rising for a long time.

 

Note these are projections and don't consider knee jerk reactions on part of local authorities.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

It's new cases REPORTED TODAY, being all those tallied through the end of yesterday.

 

Exactly, and then it should stand 5 AUG.