Is the herd immunity dream dead?

[japanese]

1 hour ago, Polar Bear said:

 I currently know 3 people (in 2 countries) who had COVID last year, and are sick with it again now. They probably had Alpha the first time and Delta now, but that's speculation. All under 35, all otherwise healthy. None of them were hospitalised either time, but 2 of them are pretty sick at home right now. The 3rd, who is symptomatic but not feeling too rough, was also double vaccinated with Sputnik at the beginning of this year, but with such a small sample, that could just be a coincidence.

Well, they are unlucky!  Were the other 2 also vaccinated?  It seems vaccination unfortunately destroys the natural immunity to covid.

[japanese]

57 minutes ago, placnx said:

Evidence is emerging that people infected with the original strain can be infected by Delta, especially if they had a mild case the first time. So discount herd immunity through infection.

That seems a bit of a jump.  I am sure there will be exceptions to the rule.  I haven't seen anything to say this is the general situation, but will certainly read if you can point me in the direction of that info as it would be important.

 

Note that vaccines effectively give immunity to the spike protein which is 0.3% of the virus.  Natural immunity protects from 100% of the virus the person caught.  A virus variant will differ a little, but would be expected to be recognized by the immune system.  

[Tony125]

 

Herd immunity from Covid is 'mythical' with the delta variant, experts say

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/herd-immunity-from-covid-is-mythical-with-the-delta-variant-experts-say/ar-AANenRF?li=BBnb7Kz

 

 

 

 

Herd immunity 'not a possibility' with delta variant, Oxford Vaccine Group head says

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/herd-immunity-not-a-possibility-with-delta-variant-oxford-vaccine-group-head-says/ar-AANd3Jf?li=BBnb7Kz

Edited August 12, 2021 by Tony125

[Polar Bear]

23 minutes ago, japanese said:

Well, they are unlucky!  Were the other 2 also vaccinated?  It seems vaccination unfortunately destroys the natural immunity to covid.

Anyone who contracts COVID is unlucky. 

No the other two weren't vaccinated. Vaccines are still hard to come by in many countries, and some won't vaccinate you if you have already had COVID.

Do you have a link to a study that vaccination destroys natural immunity to COVID? I've not seen anything along those lines, so I would be interested to read it. 

[Acharn]

It was always false. SARS-Cov-2 is a fast-mutating virus like influenza. The vaccines were always designed to reduce the severity of the symptoms. They do not prevent infection,or confer immunity, so they will never produce herd immunity. It's like the common cold -- you can catch it again after you've had it once. Get vaccinated anyway, the fact that the symptoms are less severe is a big deal. You're almost certain not to die. It's just too bad all the public health authorities decided to lie about the vaccines, it's destroyed people's faith in them.

[Virt]

29 minutes ago, japanese said:

Well, they are unlucky!  Were the other 2 also vaccinated?  It seems vaccination unfortunately destroys the natural immunity to covid.

That's not the case if i understand this article correct.

This is from 2 days ago.

 

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210810/Natural-vs-vaccine-induced-COVID-19-immunity.aspx

 

"Vaccination with almost all vaccines that are currently in clinical use produce high titers of neutralizing antibodies that are correlated with protection against the virus. With high titers, neutralization persists, even in the presence of emerging variants that have higher resistance to these antibodies."

 

 

[placeholder]

 

2 hours ago, japanese said:

Further, we will likely see a never ending cycle of mutations that will infect vaccinated, and unvaccinated that do not already have natural immunity. There is also a risk that more deadly strains will emerge from vaccinated people.  Usually deadly strains finish off the host and in doing so finish themselves off.  'Leaky' vaccines may allow the host to survive, so the mutated strain may be passed on to another host.

 

 

The claim that it's more likely that "more deadly strains will emerge from vaccinated people" is utterly false. Mutations are random. They are not more likely to occur in vaccinated people. In fact, they are far less likely since less virus is produced by those who are infected but vaccinated. While resistance to vaccination can be selected for via the vaccinated, characteristics that make the virus more deadly are not more likely

Here is an illuminating article on vaccines and the evolution of coronavirus evolution. 

https://www.newyorker.com/science/annals-of-medicine/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve?

[MrJ2U]

You can't get herd immunity when vaccines dont stop the transmission of the virus.

 

No herd immunity if you can get COVID-19 over and over again.

 

Being vaccinated will bring down the numbers though and may prevent death.  

[MrJ2U]

35 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Anyone who contracts COVID is unlucky. 

No the other two weren't vaccinated. Vaccines are still hard to come by in many countries, and some won't vaccinate you if you have already had COVID.

Do you have a link to a study that vaccination destroys natural immunity to COVID? I've not seen anything along those lines, so I would be interested to read it. 

"vaccination destroys natural immunity to COVID?"

 

Not true.

[Virt]

16 minutes ago, Acharn said:

It was always false. SARS-Cov-2 is a fast-mutating virus like influenza. The vaccines were always designed to reduce the severity of the symptoms. They do not prevent infection,or confer immunity, so they will never produce herd immunity. It's like the common cold -- you can catch it again after you've had it once. Get vaccinated anyway, the fact that the symptoms are less severe is a big deal. You're almost certain not to die. It's just too bad all the public health authorities decided to lie about the vaccines, it's destroyed people's faith in them.

It seems like that covid 19 is mutating 4 times slower than the normal flu and that's maybe good news.

 

https://www.breakthroughs.com/advancing-medical-research/how-do-viruses-mutate-and-what-it-means-vaccine

 

"From what has been observed thus far regarding the genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, it appears that the virus is mutating relatively slowly as compared to other RNA viruses. Scientists think this is due to its ability to “proofread” newly made RNA copies. This proofreading function does not exist in most other RNA viruses, including influenza"

 

"Thus far, we have seen human coronaviruses mutate but not undergo antigenic drift. This is good news for coronavirus vaccines. Nevertheless, given the similarities between the behavior of influenza viruses and coronaviruses, there is ample reason to remain vigilant for the possibility of future antigenic changes in SARS-CoV-2 and to be prepared to alter a potential COVID-19 vaccine, if necessary."

 

 

[unblocktheplanet]

6 hours ago, johng said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/10/delta-variant-has-wrecked-hopes-herd-immunity-warn-scientists/

 

"Prof Hunter, who advises the World Health Organisation on Covid, also said it was time to change the way the data was collected and recorded as the virus became endemic.

"We need to start moving away from just reporting infections, or just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid," he added. "Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don't translate into disease burden."

This statement is only true for those countries which have high levels of vaccination. The figures scare the unvaccinated into taking the jab, hopefully keeping the rest of us safer. BUT it is NOT true for Thailand! We have an unforeseeable row to hoe.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

The plague was never eliminated. Over a thousand people still contract it every year. There was a major outbreak in Madagascar in 2017, and it was streptomycin resistant. There are usually several cases in the USA every year (7 is the average). There was one in California last year. But we have got much better at treating it. As far as I know, the last deaths in the USA were 2015. But with antibiotic resistant strains on the rise, there is a new global push for a vaccine.

If you're not coming into close contact with rodents carrying plague infested fleas, you're not going to be infected with the plague. There are plague vaccines but it's uncertain how well they work.

[Harry Om]

Covid-19 may become a childhood disease in few years: Study
 

" .....affecting mostly young people who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, according to a modelling study published on Thursday.

 

The US-Norwegian team noted that because Covid-19 severity is generally lower among children, the overall burden from this disease is expected to decline as the SARS-CoV-2 virus becomes endemic in the global population.

 

"Following infection by SARS-CoV-2, there has been a clear signature of increasingly severe outcomes and fatality with age," said Ottar Bjornstad from the University of Oslo in Norway. "Yet, our modelling results suggest that the risk of infection will likely shift to younger children as the adult community becomes immune either through vaccination or exposure to the virus," he said."

 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/covid-19-may-become-a-mostly-childhood-disease-in-few-years-study/articleshow/85265761.cms

[Caldera]

3 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

The Delta strain is similarly infectious and dangerous as the common cold.

Seriously, similarly dangerous? How often does a common cold "outbreak" overwhelm a country's health system?

Edited August 12, 2021 by Caldera

[khunPer]

On 8/10/2021 at 1:35 PM, Harry Om said:

Delta is so contagious, they argue, it pushes the herd immunity threshold to an almost unreachable point."

In Europe they now talk about 85 percent, and as that is of the whole population they need young people down to 12 year gets vaccinated.

[frantick]

8 hours ago, Skallywag said:

Herd immunity likely will not happen.

Simple solution for most is to get vaccinated. The vaccines were designed to prevent severe illness, not infection.

 

Unvaccinated and you are playing Russian roulette every time you go out for the rest of your life.

 

Until you're infected, and then there's a 99+% chance you'll recover without any problems and MAY have better protection from future infections than those vaccinated.

[MrJ2U]

Yes, for now:

 

 "Sir Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told British lawmakers Tuesday that as Covid vaccines did not stop the spread of the virus entirely — with vaccinated people still able to be infected and transmit the virus — the idea of achieving herd immunity was "mythical."

"I think we are in a situation here with this current variant where herd immunity is not a possibility because it still infects vaccinated individuals," said Pollard, one of the lead researchers in the creation of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford vaccine.

"And that does mean that anyone who's still unvaccinated, at some point, will meet the virus. That might not be this month or next month, it might be next year, but at some point they will meet the virus and we don't have anything that will stop that transmission."

[MrJ2U]

11 minutes ago, frantick said:

Until you're infected, and then there's a 99+% chance you'll recover without any problems and MAY have better protection from future infections than those vaccinated.

Or die.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, frantick said:

Until you're infected, and then there's a 99+% chance you'll recover without any problems and MAY have better protection from future infections than those vaccinated.

No, there's not a 99+ percentage chance that you'll recover with no problems

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210624/23-percent-covid-patients-report-long-haul-symptoms

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html

[MrJ2U]

5 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

Anyone who contracts COVID is unlucky. 

No the other two weren't vaccinated. Vaccines are still hard to come by in many countries, and some won't vaccinate you if you have already had COVID.

Do you have a link to a study that vaccination destroys natural immunity to COVID? I've not seen anything along those lines, so I would be interested to read it. 

There isnt.  It's a lie.

[frantick]

Just now, MrJ2U said:

Or die.

Everybody dies, you never know how or when.

[MrJ2U]

8 minutes ago, frantick said:

Everybody dies, you never know how or when.

Unless its COVID-19.

 

I know you're an anti-vaxer Qanon guy.

 

Its like talking in circles to a follower of a cult.

 

Story of a QAnon freak below:

 

"Man says he killed his kids over QAnon conspiracy theories and "serpent DNA," fearing they'd become "monsters"" 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by MrJ2U

[frantick]

Just now, MrJ2U said:

Unless its COVID-19.

 

I know you're an vaxer Qanon guy.

 

Its like talking in circles to a follower of a cult.

 

Story of a QAnon freak below:

 

"Man says he killed his kids over QAnon conspiracy theories and "serpent DNA," fearing they'd become "monsters"" 

 

 

Actually the cultists are the ones trying to tell everyone else what to do. I only post my reasonings for my choice to not vaccinate at this time.

[MrJ2U]

1 minute ago, frantick said:

Actually the cultists are the ones trying to tell everyone else what to do. I only post my reasonings for my choice to not vaccinate at this time.

Blah, blah, 

Your such a weirdo.

 

 

[frantick]

1 minute ago, MrJ2U said:

Blah, blah, 

Your such a weirdo.

 

 

Selfish weirdo to you, thank you.

[placeholder]

27 minutes ago, frantick said:

Selfish weirdo to you, thank you.

When it comes to private health concerns you have a right to be as weird as you like. When it comes to public health concerns, not so much. Or do you think that smokers have the right to treat others to the second hand smoke experience?

[frantick]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

When it comes to private health concerns you have a right to be as weird as you like. When it comes to public health concerns, not so much. Or do you think that smokers have the right to treat others to the second hand smoke experience?

As a mildly obese smoker, which you've probably already ascertained by now because of my non fear of covid, I DO believe others should get reprieve from my 2nd hand smoke. But I think there are limits. Like when a smoking area is 30 feet away and a non smoker whines about catching a wiff. One wiff is not going to give you lung cancer; it's a cumulative thing. Or when a bar has ashtrays out and you are there first and a non smoker sits down and complains. Charcoal grills on a deck. I think it smells heavenly, but not the neighbor above. Can't they both come to an agreement?

 

I have non smoking friends. And even though they say they don't mind, I usually walk away when I light up. Other smoking friends light up and don't give a toot. I admire their tenacity.

 

There are many non smoking venues; use them or if not, open one. They're not all one person's toys to have as he needs when he needs.

 

But I'm off topic now, so back to covid, public health. I think LIVING is fraught with unhealthy, dangerous, avoidable activities, and unavoidable problems. We either learn to accept our humanity and treat all healthcare equally, or we open a Pandora's box of haves and have nots.

 

The last thing I want in this world is for everyone to be the same.

[Stevemercer]

10 hours ago, Caldera said:

Seriously, similarly dangerous? How often does a common cold "outbreak" overwhelm a country's health system?

 

Initial Covid strains were dangerous. The Delta strain is more infectious, but less dangerous. Future strains will be milder. Do we continue to lock down cities even when everyone is vaccinated and milder Covid strains mean illness and fatalities are similar to common flus and colds?

[Harry Om]

I sometimes wonder which is the greater pandemic, covid, or anxiety re covid?

 

Many of the proposed measures and suggested "solutions" seem more an attempt to ease the anxiety of the fearful than as real and useful public health measures.

[cdemundo]

15 hours ago, japanese said:

Note that vaccines effectively give immunity to the spike protein which is 0.3% of the virus.  Natural immunity protects from 100% of the virus the person caught.  A virus variant will differ a little, but would be expected to be recognized by the immune system.

Not sure what your statement could mean; it really doesn't make sense.

The spike protein is the means for infection of human cells, the spike protein binds to ACE to infect human cells.

If you block spike from binding you block the infection.

 

"SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection relies on the binding of S protein (Spike glycoprotein) to ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) 2 in the host cells."

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.121.318902