Leading Thai doctor says the Covid stats can't be trusted

[Clydesdale]

Thank you for the reaffirmation. I guess most of us had worked out that trying to follow the official numbers made no sense. Just how much copying and pasting has been going on ? How many accrued cases are yet to be reported (or not) ?

[dinsdale]

5 minutes ago, ExpatDraco said:

After 1.5 years people still believe that lockdowns, even hard ones, can stop this virus? Protect the weak and elder and let the rest get on with living.

Which is what can happen when 80% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Edited August 23, 2021 by dinsdale

[vangrop]

4 hours ago, buick said:

i'm going to bet against his forecast.  the death numbers will be below 100/day in october.  death numbers can be hidden but they are far more reliable than cases.  so the death numbers will be better, not the same or worse.  the case numbers are meaningless due to the weak testing program.

I dont think they establish every cause of death especially in rural areas. I doubt the accuracy of these death figures caused by Covid

[brewsterbudgen]

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Which is what can happen when 80% of the population is fully vaccinated.

And if that never happens?

[Tonypandy]

4 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

Once 70% of the population is finally vaccinated and everything starts to open up then the number of recorded cases will skyrocket.

 

So in my humble opinion it is time to move on from publishing daily infection numbers and start giving us honest figures relating to how many have died and how many have been vaccinated.

 

 

 

In countries where citizens have been vaccinated they can still catch and spread the virus, 70% means nothing 

[apetryxx]

Call me a skeptic but I do not believe this government on any subject let alone this one, nor do I believe this guy. Anybody who advocates further and more stringent lockdowns hasn't read the science on this. Another opinion in my circular file.

[VocalNeal]

^^ I thought we all knew this . Being vaccinated does not stop a person catching the disease, it simply lessens the symptoms. Even if 100% were vaccinated....

Edited August 23, 2021 by VocalNeal

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

And if that never happens?

Can't see why it won't happen. When is another matter entirely and by the time Thailand does reach this figure there may well be a new and worse variant. As it is 1/3 of covid fatalities have been vaccinated. The number of those fully vaccinated i don't know but I would think the number would be small. Thailand is yet to reach 10% fully vaccinated. Open too soon and it could be a disaster in terms of health outcomes regarding severe infections and deaths.

[dinsdale]

16 minutes ago, apetryxx said:

Call me a skeptic but I do not believe this government on any subject let alone this one, nor do I believe this guy. Anybody who advocates further and more stringent lockdowns hasn't read the science on this. Another opinion in my circular file.

I continue to point out the the virus does not have legs. I needs us to move it around and it is highly transmissable. It's the transimission that needs to be slowed down significantly in conjuction with high vaccination rates. There's science to be read regarding this also.

[Clarkey611]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Apart from China who nobody on the planet believe any data from

Except the WHO! Won't get folled again.

[the green light]

Test numbers is not a reflection on how the virus is being managed.

 

Number of death and occupancy in hospital are are critical numbers. typical  Lockdown is being used to minimize exposure when medication is not available . Vaccination is the key.

 

The fears is that waiting a long time for vaccination will allow the virus to mutate again,. and hell will be loose again.

 

lockdown will prevent leading a normal life. 

 

[PEE TEE]

I Concur

[sawadee1947]

5 hours ago, cclub75 said:

Me too.

 

As i wrote before : look at "serious conditions" and "ventilators" patients....

Since end of june (so almost 2 months), the daily increase in % has decelerated, constantly... and now (since a few days) is in negative territory.

 

forget "cases" stats". We all know it's BS.

 

So from the hospitals point of view (real ones, not "hospitels" BS)... the wave is clearly GOING DOWN.

 

It doesn't mean it can't go up again. But the evolution is looking good.

Totally BS

[Dialemco]

Don't have to be a medic to realise this just get on with vaccination programme so that we can all learn to live with the Viras and get on with our lives.

[rupert the bear]

over a yr ago,pattayas hospitals were full of sick and dying in feb 20,then it eased off.this is old news,they fobbed all the figs deaths inc.well it couldnt interfere with the gravy train,how could all those chinese in the country not be carrying it?thats where it came from all over the planet initially.the whole tings absurd,its the same with a lot of things,your not allowed to see,the political situation in bkk being another example,

[Dont confuse me]

Dear Dr Thira Woratanarat what can be trusted under the present regime? 

[BestB]

This same idiot has been pushing for hard lockdowns from the start . 
 

funny enough , check his credentials and he is a dietician 

[kennw]

5 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

Once 70% of the population is finally vaccinated and everything starts to open up then the number of recorded cases will skyrocket.

 

So in my humble opinion it is time to move on from publishing daily infection numbers and start giving us honest figures relating to how many have died and how many have been vaccinated.

 

 

 

And how many vaccinations have been given each day. First/second shot, type of vaccine.

[Magenta408]

He's been making wild projections off and on over the last couple of years. One yearns to see their faces in the public. We will let the "czar" handle this one. Chulaporn you say?

[Khunangkaro]

I have not yet seen anybody with Covid. 

Only see many idiots with muzzle. 

I ask around why wear muzzle. 

Nobody  confirms to have Covid. 

I wear muzzle at my throat or forehead. 

That makes my temp always below 36.5

 

[3NUMBAS]

like the unemployment figures ,never could be true ,a total fantasy

[CharlieH]

Reported "conspiracy " link removed.

[rabas]

34 minutes ago, BestB said:

This same idiot has been pushing for hard lockdowns from the start . 
 

funny enough , check his credentials and he is a dietician 

I think you have the wrong guy. 

 

Thira Woratanarat is an Associate Professor at Chulalongkorn and Analytical logician who graduated as a medical doctor.

 

Can't think of better qualifications to challenge numbers from medical crises. 

• Diplomate Board of Preventive Medicine, Thai Medical Council
• Postdoctoral Fellowship in Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
• Master of Medical Science (Clinical Epidemiology), University of Newcastle, Australia
• Diploma in Health Financial Management and Policy in Health Care, University of Newcastle, Australia
• Doctor of Medicine (1st Class Honor), Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University Thailand

Check out his publications on GoogleScholar. 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by rabas

[Moti24]

The 2 main headlines today: this story and TAT still counting on 1,000,000 tourists this year.

 

Do these people ever talk to each other, or is it a case of the right hand not knowing what the left hand's doing!

[sambum]

Hope he has his exit route planned!

[sambum]

Just now, Moti24 said:

The 2 main headlines today: this story and TAT still counting on 1,000,000 tourists this year.

 

Do these people ever talk to each other, or is it a case of the right hand not knowing what the left hand's doing!

No and No!

[DavisH]

6 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Strange that there is circ 20k cases a day, maybe that's the max testing available

Testing is around 50K  day, give or take...

But as thers point out, I think more are testing and staying at home. 

Not too worried about the number of cases... hospitalisations and deaths are the key indicator of changes in the pandemic.

We may find its over quicker thn we anticipate - 2/3 of Indians now have antibodies, so the spread is obviosuly much greatere in extent than testing can show. Not just India and Thailand, but most othe countries. 

[laislica]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

and who's christmas card list has he been removed from lol

 

brave man coming out and speaking the truth 

 

if certain people were removed now we might actually get a sensible strategy in place that will allow vaccinated tourists to visit Thailand without all the red tape - there are sensible ways and means to address this like I posted on another thread 

 

fully vaccinated staff and customers for a start then I see no reason why certain venues cannot open up provided they are supervised with the cops checking they are in compliance

You write as though the vaccine stops rinse to  and transmission, it doesn't. 

If vaccinated, the hope is that you will not need hospitalization if you get infected.

How does this help tourism?

Don't they require insurance so  no burden on the state?

The  viral load on infected is the same for  both vaccinated and unvaccinated and they spread it at the same rate. 

[Aussieroaming]

The argument that the hospitalization rate and number of hospital related covid deaths is a better method of ascertaining covid rates would only be logical if every person that was covid possible was able to enter the hospital system and thus become a hospital based statistic. 

 

Many people self test and isolate at home or present to hospital and get turned away because there aren't beds, these people aren't all officially tested and therefore don't become a covid statistic. Another group that don't enter the statistics are those people who are covid positive and asymptomatic or with mild illness. These people never enter the Thai covid database unless they report themselves to the government. 

 

When 50 000 people get tested and 20 000 positive results are confirmed it becomes pretty obvious that with such a high positive ratio that the daily covid count would be far higher if more tests were carried out. It wouldn't be 40% but it would likely be 10% or so, which is backed up by other sample tests which were carried out, that yielded a 10 and 13% infection rate respectively.

[Surasak]

6 hours ago, lolalol said:

 

But when do you think 70% of the population will finally get vaccinated?  

As a guess, like this gov does, I'd say late 2022 or maybe early 2023, maybe!