Leading Thai doctor says the Covid stats can't be trusted

[PMinThailand]

Another scientific assessment!

 

[brewsterbudgen]

"He said that without a continuing hard lockdown with all its rules the current numbers - or worse - will be running to the end of October or even later in the year."

 

A hard lockdown? Is that what we have now?

[ikke1959]

How many leading doctors do they have?? Every day another one shows up

[southcoast]

2 hours ago, Scrotobike said:

Brave man - telling the truth!

Watch out for the men in black....

And your Back!!,

[wombat]

this makes me laugh...even Oz's SCOMO is backpedaling now saying the stats should be hospitalised cases not tests.
and fmd, what were the Thai stats based on before they were peer pressured by other countries?
hospitalised cases.

[khunPer]

2 hours ago, buick said:

i'm going to bet against his forecast.  the death numbers will be below 100/day in october.  death numbers can be hidden but they are far more reliable than cases.  so the death numbers will be better, not the same or worse.  the case numbers are meaningless due to the weak testing program.

Test programs are not at all reliable. Denmark, for example, have tested what in number so far is similar to the whole population more than 10 times - a lot of people are tested twice a week - and still some 20% have never been near a test station. Due to high testings and only few cases in hospitals, almost all domestic restriction have now been terminated. However, the number of positive cases relative converted to Thiland from a population of 5.8 millin people to 70 million would be around 8,500 new cases a day (8,640 yesterday to be more precise). Testing positive - apart from a number of unreliable or fake test results - doesn't necessary mean that the person is sick, or having any symptoms. 

 

Yes, only serious cases, critical conditions and number of deaths show real facts.

[flyfrog]

1 hour ago, JackGats said:

I am less enthusiastic than most about this yet another doctor advocating continuous hard lockdowns.

If lockdowns would help why are there still so many infected more and more????

[nobodysfriend]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that without a continuing hard lockdown with all its rules the current numbers - or worse - will be running to the end of October or even later in the year. 

 

the doctor better makes sure that he does not end up in prison for saying this ... they passed a new law against ' fearmongering ' even if , what was said , is true .

[nobodysfriend]

3 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

The truth shall set you free.

Or the opposite .

Speaking the truth puts you in prison .

[crazykopite]

A very brave doctor i sincerely hope nothing happens to him ! More and more people need to be like him and speak out because so far those who run the country have shown that they are not fit to serve such high positions of authority.

[Swampy999]

3 hours ago, cclub75 said:

Me too.

 

As i wrote before : look at "serious conditions" and "ventilators" patients....

Since end of june (so almost 2 months), the daily increase in % has decelerated, constantly... and now (since a few days) is in negative territory.

 

forget "cases" stats". We all know it's BS.

 

So from the hospitals point of view (real ones, not "hospitels" BS)... the wave is clearly GOING DOWN.

 

It doesn't mean it can't go up again. But the evolution is looking good.

Serious/critical is now UP to 5615, daily deaths are now in excess of 200, it is clearly NOT going down is it?

[crazykopite]

3 hours ago, buick said:

i'm going to bet against his forecast.  the death numbers will be below 100/day in october.  death numbers can be hidden but they are far more reliable than cases.  so the death numbers will be better, not the same or worse.  the case numbers are meaningless due to the weak testing program.

That maybe the case remember China claiming 3,000 deaths yet the temples were burning bodies 24/7 for months and 100s of 1,000s of urns were stacked high . Thailand might be able to bluff there way through the death rates but the cannot hide the burning of bodies or cold containers full of dead bodies

[Nip]

3 hours ago, cclub75 said:

Me too.

 

As i wrote before : look at "serious conditions" and "ventilators" patients....

Since end of june (so almost 2 months), the daily increase in % has decelerated, constantly... and now (since a few days) is in negative territory.

 

forget "cases" stats". We all know it's BS.

 

So from the hospitals point of view (real ones, not "hospitels" BS)... the wave is clearly GOING DOWN.

 

It doesn't mean it can't go up again. But the evolution is looking good.

Yep and nobody takes into consideration that Covid sleeps during the hours of 8pm and 8am. Your vocation is with TAT or a Government Pandemic advisor. Sorry did I wake you? 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The Chula medical sciences guru said it made no sense that 250-500,000 cases took 27 days and 500,000 to a milllion took less - only 25 days.

 

He suggested there were far more cases not included in the figures as people were isolating at home after doing their own ATK tests, reported Sanook. 

He's toast, hope he enjoys his long retirement.

Fishing is a good hobby, as long as you take a good mate when near water.

[crazykopite]

15 minutes ago, nobodysfriend said:

 

the doctor better makes sure that he does not end up in prison for saying this ... they passed a new law against ' fearmongering ' even if , what was said , is true .

the high court threw it out the PM was left with egg on his face 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

The truth shall set you free.

In Thailand it usually gets you locked up.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, cclub75 said:

Me too.

 

As i wrote before : look at "serious conditions" and "ventilators" patients....

Since end of june (so almost 2 months), the daily increase in % has decelerated, constantly... and now (since a few days) is in negative territory.

 

forget "cases" stats". We all know it's BS.

 

So from the hospitals point of view (real ones, not "hospitels" BS)... the wave is clearly GOING DOWN.

 

It doesn't mean it can't go up again. But the evolution is looking good.

Stats from government hospitals... nuff said.

[tandor]

...I'd say you're in the poo now, Dr Thira.

[Snig27]

Oh, this will get the massed medical faculty of Thai Visa all excited. If only John Hopkins Uni knew what they have all known all these months, having researched it in a Chang bottle or ten and peer reviewed it in these very forums. 

[jvs]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Strange that there is circ 20k cases a day, maybe that's the max testing available

It will make you understand if you remove the word available and replace it with allowed.

[koratkarlos]

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Cases continue at around 40% infection rate. One can therefore extrapolate that 50,000 tests a day 20,000 infections detected

You may be correct with your extrapolation, especially if the sampling was random, but it is not.  They are testing people going to the hospital that are sick, known clusters and people coming into the country.  Since these people are suspect the 40% infection rate is probably high when referenced to the entire population.  What is of great concern as you have previously reported is the lack of testing AND the fact that nobody really knows the extent of infection.  How can anyone know as there is insufficient testing.  And this is what is so scary.  We don't know the truth.  What we know is that we have a proven highly infectious Delta spreading through a largely unvaccinated population.  And in other countries this has shown to be a big problem.

[ExpatDraco]

23 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

That maybe the case remember China claiming 3,000 deaths yet the temples were burning bodies 24/7 for months and 100s of 1,000s of urns were stacked high . Thailand might be able to bluff there way through the death rates but the cannot hide the burning of bodies or cold containers full of dead bodies

You still believe all that media <deleted>? I guess you think half of India died also and that Italy and Brasil have no population anymore?

[wensiensheng]

3 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

Once 70% of the population is finally vaccinated and everything starts to open up then the number of recorded cases will skyrocket.

 

So in my humble opinion it is time to move on from publishing daily infection numbers and start giving us honest figures relating to how many have died and how many have been vaccinated.

 

 

 

I’m not sure what difference it will make when 70% of the population are vaccinated. Look at Phuket. Reportedly at 70% vaccinated and only vaccinated or negative test people allowed in, and yet:

 

schools closed

bars closed

gyms closed

no alcohol in restaurants

no “parties”

tourists triple tested

tourists restricted to sha hotels

 

If Phuket is an example, it doesn’t seem that the authorities quite know what to do when they get to 70% vaccinated anyway!

 

[dinsdale]

7 minutes ago, Bim Smith said:

Another lockdown zealot you will never pay the price for the poverty it creates. If they worked we wouldn't be here now in the this position. 

This isn't a lock down. Frankly the big lockdown of last year was harder and that was at the beginning. Now it's Delta and we have a pseudo lockdown. Part of the reason we are here now is that they didn't do a hard lockdown and they didn't do it early. 

[Ned Ludd]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Strange that there is circ 20k cases a day, maybe that's the max testing available

Why can't other people see this...If you do not test, you can never know the real figures. This is why Germany always looks good, it has one of the lowest testing ratios in Europe. Also, if there are any underlying causes in Germany, it is not a covid death.

 

You would think that the WHO would set a standard for this....Sorry, what am I thinking?

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, buick said:

i'm going to bet against his forecast.  the death numbers will be below 100/day in october.  death numbers can be hidden but they are far more reliable than cases.  so the death numbers will be better, not the same or worse.  the case numbers are meaningless due to the weak testing program.

The death rate for 'Delta' is unknown among an immunologically naive (not vaccinated or previously infected) population.

 

I have a feeling that when it is known in the future as we look back (the only real way to know) we're in for some surprises.

 

Based on what I've been reading this delta variant really does spread like wildfire, much quicker than can be accurately measured by most countries.

 

[LivinLOS]

3 hours ago, cclub75 said:

So from the hospitals point of view (real ones, not "hospitels" BS)... the wave is clearly GOING DOWN.

 

It doesn't mean it can't go up again. But the evolution is looking good.

While I agree with your assessment that whatever the numbers really are, they may have peaked.. How will they remain stable or trending down when the country reopens.. Or do you imagine they are going to remain in current lockdown mode till the end of the year / forever ?? 

Cases have peaked because of lockdowns and the crippling of the economy.. To regain the economy, they have to allow the process that causes cases to rise again.. 

The only way out of this mess is effective vaccines, which they dont yet have.. Hell even Israel with 80% pfizer etc is going back into lock downs and another set of rising cases. 

They cannot stay locked down.. If they reopen.. cases restart.. its a simple set of calculations without effective vaccinations. 

[wwest5829]

4 hours ago, buick said:

i'm going to bet against his forecast.  the death numbers will be below 100/day in october.  death numbers can be hidden but they are far more reliable than cases.  so the death numbers will be better, not the same or worse.  the case numbers are meaningless due to the weak testing program.

From the begining of the pandemic, I figured a good indicator was the number of times I heard the rockets going off in the local Wat denoting a funeral. Ah, well, the best laid plans … does not seem to be too many …?

Edited August 23, 2021 by wwest5829

[ExpatDraco]

28 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This isn't a lock down. Frankly the big lockdown of last year was harder and that was at the beginning. Now it's Delta and we have a pseudo lockdown. Part of the reason we are here now is that they didn't do a hard lockdown and they didn't do it early. 

After 1.5 years people still believe that lockdowns, even hard ones, can stop this virus? Protect the weak and elder and let the rest get on with living.

[Phredd]

The Truth will remain the Truth, no Matter How it is Believed. ????