Signs of improving COVID-19 situation in Thailand

[placeholder]

On 8/30/2021 at 1:08 AM, VBF said:

I know 3 people in UK who've died of it...BUT....they were all aged in their 80s but healthy. Would they have died anyway? I don't know.

 

However, this https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/08/rightwing-radio-host-dick-farrel-anti-vaxxer-dies-covid might be relevant to your question.

Actually, there are now 3 anti-vaxxer radio hosts dead from Covid:

 

3rd conservative radio host who condemned vaccines dies of Covid

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/08/29/3rd-conservative-radio-host-who-condemned-vaccines-dies-of-covid-1390555

[billd766]

On 8/30/2021 at 6:43 AM, lextsy said:

I love to read these emails everyday to stay in touch with the news in thailand however its draining to see the constant negativity from alot of posters here.

See you soon thailand!

quote "however its draining to see the constant negativity from a lot of posters here."

 

What you see as negativity, other posters who have lived in Thailand, sometimes for decades, who have wives, families, businesses see the results of the reality of yet another military coup by ex generals, who believe that they have the divine right to run the country.

 

In reality they have no real idea what to do or how to do it. In 2014 when they stole the country from a legitimate freely elected government they promised many things would happen.

A complete reform of the police.       It never happened.

A complete reform of the military.    It never happened.

A new election.                                    It took 5 years and was screwed up from the start.

Happiness and reconciliation to the people.   It never happened.

 

I could go on and perhaps other posters will.

 

When you LIVE in the country over a period of years instead of looking in from the outside and married with a home and children you will know that what you thought before living here is not reality, but rose tinted glasses.

[billd766]

On 8/30/2021 at 10:08 AM, placeholder said:

I'm not supporting or questioning the veracity of the Thai Govt.'s figures but epidemiologists routinely do make predictions about when infections will crest and then begin to fall.

But it wasn't an epidemiologist who made that prediction, it was the great Panjandrum himself who said it, and even Covid must obey him. 

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, billd766 said:

But it wasn't an epidemiologist who made that prediction, it was the great Panjandrum himself who said it, and even Covid must obey him. 

But the person I was replying to wrote this: 

 

'He may be the only man in the world that can predict Coronavirus figures. He may have magical powers.'

 

Do you agree with that statement?

 

[brucec64]

On 8/30/2021 at 2:44 PM, mitos said:

Pattaya city hospital.. people patients told me that 2 - 3 waiting hours it's usually before covid. But almost empty when I come at 5pm. Two of us patients and staff a lots. 30 minutes I am been but empty. Nowhere patients.

You think maybe it's because the more than 1000 hotels in pattaya are empty, and all the people who work in them, and every other part of the tourist industry, have all gone home. Pattaya is a ghost town now and the hospitals are as empty as everywhere else. And even though there are most likely many covid patients in the hospital, you wouldn't see them in the waiting room. Covid patients are usually transported by ambulance.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, brucec64 said:

You think maybe it's because the more than 1000 hotels in pattaya are empty, and all the people who work in them, and every other part of the tourist industry, have all gone home. Pattaya is a ghost town now and the hospitals are as empty as everywhere else. And even though there are most likely many covid patients in the hospital, you wouldn't see them in the waiting room. Covid patients are usually transported by ambulance.

Well, I believe the rules in Pattaya have been a lot less restrictive than elsewhere in Thailand. What's more, the number of cases has been surging even though commerce has not been. But so far not many deaths. That may be due to lag time. But it may also be due to vaccinations.

[greenmonkey]

13 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Where are you getting this number from? There seems to have been rather a focus on foreigners being vaccinated..... and why specifically Expats in relation to reopening Thailand?

I'm talking from personal experience. I don't think there has been a focus on foreigners at all. I registered on the expat site very early on and still awaiting for an appointement. Many expats are still waiting. I have spoken to my wife and her sister (Thai's) and they cannot think of a single Thai person (family or friend) that they know, who hasn't had their first jab. Maybe her and her family/friends are just lucky and are not indicative of the actual stats - I don't know... but it feels as if the expats are right at the back of the queue for vaccines.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, greenmonkey said:

I'm talking from personal experience. I don't think there has been a focus on foreigners at all. I registered on the expat site very early on and still awaiting for an appointement. Many expats are still waiting. I have spoken to my wife and her sister (Thai's) and they cannot think of a single Thai person (family or friend) that they know, who hasn't had their first jab. Maybe her and her family/friends are just lucky and are not indicative of the actual stats - I don't know... but it feels as if the expats are right at the back of the queue for vaccines.

Well, Thailand has been accused of exaggerating its vaccination performance. Yet by its own account it has only given at least one jab to 33.5% of the population. I think your family needs to get out more

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

[Bernietravelling]

On 8/29/2021 at 10:41 PM, lujanit said:

…

The sooner this junta is thrown out of office, jailed for life and all their assets confiscated the better for Thailand.  Sadly I don't see this happening soon.

 

That „western values“ thing did not work already in

Vietnam,

Iraq,

Afghanistan,

…

 

So: 

Let the Thai alone,

and let them solve their problems themselves,

in their own way !

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by Bernietravelling

[VBF]

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The 28 day figure is for initial reports. 

 

The official data is compiled from death certificates. 

 

There is an official process for generating death certificates in the UK, I have read it. The only major change over the last 2 years is that Covid has been added as a new cause of death. Otherwise, the medical examiner has the same task as before, to determine the primary cause of death, based on diagnostics and evaluation of the body. 

 

To claim that medical examiners are incorrectly listing cause of death is tin foil hat material. 

I did not make such a claim! Kindly do NOT confuse me with a conspiracy theorist.

What I'm saying is that to even mention a Covid test done within the 28 days prior to death is disingenuous when there is no proof that Covid was the primary cause of death.  I repeat.....  " Covid can be on a death cert even if that is not the PRIMARY CoD. IE...the person died WITH Covid, not OF Covid."

 

The IMPLICATION there is that Covid was the CoD, even if it was merely incidental.

For example:.....Patient has a long-standing and worsening heart condition and has another attack casing death where the same patient also happened  to have Covid - that should not be attributed to Covid...IMO.

[Scott]

25 minutes ago, VBF said:

I did not make such a claim! Kindly do NOT confuse me with a conspiracy theorist.

What I'm saying is that to even mention a Covid test done within the 28 days prior to death is disingenuous when there is no proof that Covid was the primary cause of death.  I repeat.....  " Covid can be on a death cert even if that is not the PRIMARY CoD. IE...the person died WITH Covid, not OF Covid."

 

The IMPLICATION there is that Covid was the CoD, even if it was merely incidental.

For example:.....Patient has a long-standing and worsening heart condition and has another attack casing death where the same patient also happened  to have Covid - that should not be attributed to Covid...IMO.

That is not correct, there is usually a primary cause of death and there are secondary or contributing factors to death.   I had a neighbor who died from complications due to a blood clot resulting in a heart attack.  Upon admission to the hospital, he was given a covid test and he was covid positive.  His cause of death was listed as myocardial infarction.  Covid was not listed as a 2ndary cause because he had displayed no symptoms at all prior to the heart attack.  

I saw his death certificate.   There are three boxes, the first says:  "Immediate cause of death", the second box is 'Due to or as a consequence of' and the 3rd box says the same 'Due to or as a consequence of'.   After each box is a box for 'interval' where the time frame is listed.  

Medical personnel really don't have any skin in the game and they know how to record a death accurately.  

 

 

[Moonfire]

On 8/29/2021 at 7:05 PM, placeholder said:

You're not taking into account the lag time between infections and death.. Infections always decline before deaths start to decline.

It really is simple math, taken over a span of a 3 month cycle. The death rate is 1 percent, against daily infected numbers reported on average over the last 3 months. Then out of the blue the daily numbers just STOP, then start falling as the example I used down to a daily infected number of 19K but the deaths of 290.   290 at 1 percent equals 29,000 daily infected.    So do you think the daily infected rate just STOPPED climbing one day, when it had been like a rocket for the last 3 months. The ratio of death to daily infected will give some insight in my opinion.

[steve187]

On 8/30/2021 at 7:02 AM, 10baht said:

Yes they will decline as you lower the number of tests.

less testing doesn't reduce the amount of people with serious symptoms, which will lead to testing anyway

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

I did not make such a claim! Kindly do NOT confuse me with a conspiracy theorist.

What I'm saying is that to even mention a Covid test done within the 28 days prior to death is disingenuous when there is no proof that Covid was the primary cause of death.  I repeat.....  " Covid can be on a death cert even if that is not the PRIMARY CoD. IE...the person died WITH Covid, not OF Covid."

 

The IMPLICATION there is that Covid was the CoD, even if it was merely incidental.

For example:.....Patient has a long-standing and worsening heart condition and has another attack casing death where the same patient also happened  to have Covid - that should not be attributed to Covid...IMO.

Fortunately, we know the number of Covid deaths in the UK, based on medical examiner reports.

[jacko45k]

9 hours ago, greenmonkey said:

I'm talking from personal experience. I don't think there has been a focus on foreigners at all. I registered on the expat site very early on and still awaiting for an appointement. Many expats are still waiting. I have spoken to my wife and her sister (Thai's) and they cannot think of a single Thai person (family or friend) that they know, who hasn't had their first jab. Maybe her and her family/friends are just lucky and are not indicative of the actual stats - I don't know... but it feels as if the expats are right at the back of the queue for vaccines.

From my location (Pattaya), we see a lot of effort to get Expats vaccinated... I expect it is a very regional thing. I received 2 invitations to get vaccinated here in Pattaya.

My Mrs just got her first jab, it seems she was in a Q behind over 60s. One thing is for sure, Expats seem to be getting a better , more preferred brand (Pfizer)..... Expats above 40,  are now being vaccinated here. 

 

[Bohemianfish]

Sounds like they plan to open Thailand rather quickly now, changing the narrative. Now that most of BKK is has been vaccinated. It could open to a great deal of whiplash as people expect things to take longer.

[Tonypandy]

On 8/30/2021 at 10:44 AM, VBF said:

To be pedantic, if you're vaccinated, YOU are relatively safe.....unfortunately, the unvaccinated people around you are not!

(Before anyone jumps up and down...I know you can still get sick if vaccinated, but from all accounts less so, but you can certainly still be a carrier)

Ask people in Israel about being relatively safe after being double jabbed. 

[VBF]

7 minutes ago, Tonypandy said:

Ask people in Israel about being relatively safe after being double jabbed. 

I get that......but what if Israel were to have done as little as Thailand?  Rhetorical, I appreciate, but....

[VBF]

8 hours ago, Scott said:

That is not correct, there is usually a primary cause of death and there are secondary or contributing factors to death.   I had a neighbor who died from complications due to a blood clot resulting in a heart attack.  Upon admission to the hospital, he was given a covid test and he was covid positive.  His cause of death was listed as myocardial infarction.  Covid was not listed as a 2ndary cause because he had displayed no symptoms at all prior to the heart attack.  

I saw his death certificate.   There are three boxes, the first says:  "Immediate cause of death", the second box is 'Due to or as a consequence of' and the 3rd box says the same 'Due to or as a consequence of'.   After each box is a box for 'interval' where the time frame is listed.  

Medical personnel really don't have any skin in the game and they know how to record a death accurately.  

 

Also for @Danderman123

If that is the case, and if you have seen such, then why are the media constantly reporting Covid deaths as "people who have died within 28 days of testing positive."?

If you look at the BBC, ITN and various other UK news outlets (who DO have "skin in the game") that has been the theme throughout the pandemic.

 

@Scott Re-reading your post and your spelling of "neighbour" are you referring to USA death certs?  Would you please clarify.

If so I have zero knowledge of how it is reported - my comments referred to UK - I don't think UK death certs have as much information on them.

[jak2002003]

On 8/30/2021 at 3:01 AM, pegman said:

You never know if you are being feed the truth from these guys but let's hope it is true and the situation is improving 

I agree with you   The news today they are telling is not to panic as a spike in covid is on the way. ..so it's hardly 'improving' as the op wants is to believe.

[Eric Loh]

As the situation improved and more restrictions lifted, there are lessons to be learned from mistakes by countries with spiking cases even with high percentage of vaccinated population. The commonality of highly vaccinated countries like US, Israel, South Korea, Australia and Netherland is that all of these countries abandon basic precaution like masking and totally relaxed the need for social distancing. The new normal even with 80% vaccination is that basic precautions will still have to be maintained and hope the virus will run itself out and nullified. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57796133

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, VBF said:

Also for @Danderman123

If that is the case, and if you have seen such, then why are the media constantly reporting Covid deaths as "people who have died within 28 days of testing positive."?

If you look at the BBC, ITN and various other UK news outlets (who DO have "skin in the game") that has been the theme throughout the pandemic.

 

@Scott Re-reading your post and your spelling of "neighbour" are you referring to USA death certs?  Would you please clarify.

If so I have zero knowledge of how it is reported - my comments referred to UK - I don't think UK death certs have as much information on them.

I am referring to death certs in the UK.

 

you are confusing the quick reports with the official reports, which take time to produce.

[Kwaibill]

On 7/30/2021 at 9:22 PM, law ling said:

Hmm ... "plans" for 10 million ... why not plan enough to vax everyone (120 million doses)?

 

I suspect the government hasn't yet actually ordered enough vaxes for everyone ... I don't see what their game-plan is.

 

On 8/24/2021 at 7:58 AM, RocketDog said:

I just went to the site and entered my email address. It flagged it as an invalid email, even though I checked it very carefully and tried twice.

This was on my phone. I'll try on my laptop,but I don't expect different results.

It just never ends does it?

Anybody else have better experience or same issue?

Suggestions?

 

On 8/30/2021 at 6:13 AM, Rocking Robert said:

This Covid thing isn’t going anywhere you might as well open up and just deal with it 

Keep "losing" comments, so will post this here, which "magically" re-appeared...

"Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19" https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

[Kwaibill]

On 8/31/2021 at 7:48 AM, jacko45k said:

Where are you getting this number from? There seems to have been rather a focus on foreigners being vaccinated..... and why specifically Expats in relation to reopening Thailand?

Yes, I got my jab,  and appoingment for the second, on hold for my third, which I will take (immunocomprimised), and several expat friends have been jabbed, too.

It did take a long time, but seems to be happening.

I got an invite from a hospital that gave no info between unconfirmed registration and invitation, about half the experienced problem,  I submit.

[VBF]

51 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am referring to death certs in the UK.

 

you are confusing the quick reports with the official reports, which take time to produce.

Possibly...but what you term "quick reports" are all most people (who don't dig deep enough) actually see.

And my UK/USA question was actually for @Scott

[Scott]

5 hours ago, VBF said:

Also for @Danderman123

If that is the case, and if you have seen such, then why are the media constantly reporting Covid deaths as "people who have died within 28 days of testing positive."?

If you look at the BBC, ITN and various other UK news outlets (who DO have "skin in the game") that has been the theme throughout the pandemic.

 

@Scott Re-reading your post and your spelling of "neighbour" are you referring to USA death certs?  Would you please clarify.

If so I have zero knowledge of how it is reported - my comments referred to UK - I don't think UK death certs have as much information on them.

Yes, I am referring to a Death Certificate from the US, however, the standard for reporting deaths is roughly the same in the UK.  The standard that is followed is set by the WHO, to ensure that there is some accuracy world wide.   If you want more detailed information it can be found here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

[Scott]

I think it might be best to stay a little closer to the topic of improving Covid cases in Thailand.  

 

[ivor bigun]

22 hours ago, greenmonkey said:

I'm talking from personal experience. I don't think there has been a focus on foreigners at all. I registered on the expat site very early on and still awaiting for an appointement. Many expats are still waiting. I have spoken to my wife and her sister (Thai's) and they cannot think of a single Thai person (family or friend) that they know, who hasn't had their first jab. Maybe her and her family/friends are just lucky and are not indicative of the actual stats - I don't know... but it feels as if the expats are right at the back of the queue for vaccines.

Well i registered on mor prom 14 weeks ago ,after 2 weeks got my az jab ,16 wks too no 2 ,yesterday got an sms come tomorrow (12) weeks for your second one ,went this afternoon ,i have also in the last month got a message from Bangkok Pattaya hospital ,for a jab  and a call from Samitivit ,3 weeks ago   telling me i could have an az ,told them i had already had my first with mor prom ,ok the relevent dept will contact you for second jab.

about 3 months ago i registered with expatvac? told all ok ,never heard a peep from them .

as far as i can see i have been treated very well ,same as any Thai.

[metisdead]

A post with a trolling image and the replies have been removed. 

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, VBF said:

Possibly...but what you term "quick reports" are all most people (who don't dig deep enough) actually see.

And my UK/USA question was actually for @Scott

The Covid Deniers often use the 28 day figure to cast doubt on mortality numbers, but they ignore the official numbers. 

 

Here's the reality: how many people do you think test positive for Covid and then die of something else within 28 days? Probably about 28 in a million. The issue you are worried about is trivial. That is why they have the 28 day rule, few people die of something else within 28 days of a positive test.