AUKUS: A New Justification for Thailand’s Submarine Acquisition Plans?

[DaveSamutP]

20 minutes ago, John Drake said:

There is something to this. Maybe more. Because it's not just submarines but all the other military hardware being bought from China. Thailand is all but part of a Chinese defense pact. If real hostilities break out, Thailand isn't going to be able to sit on the fence. They're putting a target on their back. How is the other side to differentiate between Chinese submarines and Chinese submarines supposedly manned by Thais? They can't. They won't. Those subs will be vaporized.

I reckon the Thai subs will have the THAI logo on them. Smooth as Silk

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, DaveSamutP said:

I reckon the Thai subs will have the THAI logo on them. Smooth as Silk

Painted with water-colours?

[AsiaCheese]

1 hour ago, robertson468 said:

But you can guarantee that they would have a detection mechanism so that the Chinese would be able to track them wherever they go, or the crew would be issued with Huawai Mobie Phones.  It's unbelieveable how naive the Thai Government are, but there again, many of them have Chinese decendancy, so USA, UK and Europe need to beware of any partnership with Thailand.

That's simplification almost down to the fairytale level. But that's what's been a popular tactic ever since the McCarthy days, and it worked out well for the weapons manufacturers - one brilliant profit quarter after another. The fact that the US has been chased out of Vietnam and Afghanistan is something that one day might find an explanation in the history books (and those are written by: exactly...), but the mighty military forces haven't seen anything yet that even remotely compares to what China, and possibly brother-in-arms Russia, can throw into the game. The remarkable thing is, however, that China didn't go all-out serious until the US & lapdogs started economic war and arms build-up against them. 

As for buying 1-3 submarines: however reality-deprived it may be, it's a commercial deal and not much more. Relatively speaking, it's not much money, and thus what it yields is - uhm - not much either. You get what you pay for. To suggest, however, that those floats might be trackable, just like Huawai mobiles, is a direct Marco Rubio white line on a mirror with razorblades...

[John Drake]

40 minutes ago, AsiaCheese said:

That's simplification almost down to the fairytale level. But that's what's been a popular tactic ever since the McCarthy days, and it worked out well for the weapons manufacturers - one brilliant profit quarter after another. The fact that the US has been chased out of Vietnam and Afghanistan is something that one day might find an explanation in the history books (and those are written by: exactly...), but the mighty military forces haven't seen anything yet that even remotely compares to what China, and possibly brother-in-arms Russia, can throw into the game. The remarkable thing is, however, that China didn't go all-out serious until the US & lapdogs started economic war and arms build-up against them. 

As for buying 1-3 submarines: however reality-deprived it may be, it's a commercial deal and not much more. Relatively speaking, it's not much money, and thus what it yields is - uhm - not much either. You get what you pay for. To suggest, however, that those floats might be trackable, just like Huawai mobiles, is a direct Marco Rubio white line on a mirror with razorblades...

The fairy tale is the belief that those subs will be independently manned and crewed by Thais only. The crews are already getting their training in, I think, Wuhan, of all places. And when the subs hit the seas, you can bet that Chinese "advisers, technicians, maintenance specialists, and weapons specialists" will be right on board. No need to track them. They will not be able to move without Chinese naval "help."

[spidermike007]

My question is this. If the extremely toxic and dangerously timid army are unwilling to take any risks whatsoever, with regard to Covid, why are they spending 22 billion baht on submarines? Obviously there is some risk in operating subs, and even more risk if as they say, they are purposed to protect against terrorist threats and any threat in the South China Sea. The real budget is more like 13 billion baht already paid, for the first S26T Yuan Class sub, which was originally due in 2013. When will it be delivered? And the real cost for the subsequent two? 

Thai naval forces have not operated submarines for over 60 years now, while neighboring countries, particularly those with a major dispute at sea with Thailand, such as Vietnam, are all equipped with modern submarines. Who will pilot the subs? Who will maintain them? China has already lost a sub at sea, in peacetime. If China can lose a sub, with it's technology and military superiority, what does that say about Thailand? 

 

And at what cost to the people does all this require? Looks like they are willing to take a huge risk with the treasury. Why so timid with Covid, and a quality vaccination program?

This government is a whirlpool of conflicting loyalties and interests. It's leader has to manage those interests, and effectively buy the loyalties of the various parts of the armed forces. The submarines are the price he has to pay for the navy supporting him. They will end up unusable and unaffordable, as did the aircraft carrier

There is no strategic justification for the submarines. There is really no military threat to Thailand, none of the countries with which it shares a land border have the capacity for anything other than the occasional cross border firefight. If you look carefully at all the military procurement of recent years, they are all to support ambitions, and thus buy the support of the various rival groups within the armed forces. They simply do not add up to any sort of a coherent modernisation or re-equipment of what remains a largely obsolete, immobile and under trained force, able only to undertake the most mundane of garrison duties, whilst it's bloated leadership occupies itself with playing politics or their own largely unregulated business ventures.

The government however (or more realistically those to whom it reports) must rely upon the military to keep it in power. It was put into power for one core function; to prevent the nascent political, social and economic liberalisation of Thai society which arose with the arrival of new technologies and communications, which have allowed a (younger) population which has long been kept ill educated and dependent for any advancement on its elders and sponsors, to communicate, educate themselves and develop business independent of those elders and sponsors. The Covid crisis is in a dimension beyond that, and it's timid, chaotic "rabbit in the headlights" response to the challenges it brings are simply because it does not know how to react, other than to use some of the opportunities to exercise power, in pursuit of that core function, which the social and political restrictions they argue the disease has necessitated give them.

The tourist industry was largely beyond the scope of those to whom it owes its loyalty (existence). they neither understand nor are interested in it. The same holds for the fate of those whose livelihoods and businesses have been damaged or destroyed by the reaction to Covid. They can, as we cynically joke, always" go back to their farms".

Whether the younger generation(s) will meekly accept their lot, now they have tasted the opportunity to communicate, educate themselves and develop business, we shall see.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by spidermike007

[DekDaeng]

6 hours ago, Kiwithl said:

"...the fate of the other two submarines is up in the air."

 

Get those ones I'd say.

Blue paint brigade at it, still?

 

[John Drake]

31 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

My question is this. If the extremely toxic and dangerously timid army are unwilling to take any risks whatsoever, with regard to Covid, why are they spending 22 billion baht on submarines?

Because, maybe, these are Chinese subs with a Thai flag. An outright naval base given over to the Chinese might cause problems--right now.  But not a Chinese sub "pen" with Thai decals stuck all over it.

[RafPinto]

They could use them to cross the river to go to Laos for the ladies of the night and casinos.

Incognito.

[spidermike007]

27 minutes ago, RafPinto said:

They could use them to cross the river to go to Laos for the ladies of the night and casinos.

Incognito.

I have heard of alot of different kinds of vehicles used for "cruising", but never a sub! Talk about conspicuous! However, having said that, they are going to have to find some use for those darn things, at that price. And we all know it will not be of a defensive nature. Scared of a naval attack by Cambodia, Malaysia or Burma? I don't think so. 

[jacko45k]

Just now, spidermike007 said:

Scared of a naval attack by Cambodia, Malaysia or Burma? I don't think so. 

I heard they really fear the Laotian Navy. 

[spidermike007]

Whatever kind of justification the wing nuts can come up with, will be used. And the .001% of the population will buy it. At this stage, Prayuth only has 12,500 supporters remaining. And 2,200 of them are generals. The rest are high ranking cops, immigration, and customs officers, as he protects their franchises, with all his might. 

[Emdog]

"The fact that the US has been chased out of Vietnam and Afghanistan is something that one day might find an explanation in the history books (and those are written by: exactly...), but the mighty military forces haven't seen anything yet that even remotely compares to what China, and possibly brother-in-arms Russia, can throw into the game. The remarkable thing is, however, that China didn't go all-out serious until the US & lapdogs started economic war and arms build-up against them."

USSR (Russia) got thrown out of Afghanistan, in case you missed that one & they were "all in" on that one.

China invaded Vietnam etc in 1979 as VN had thrown out horrendous Khmer Rouge (ally of China).

"China didn't go all-out serious until the US & lapdogs started economic war and arms build-up against them" Could you explain that to us? US lapdogs wanted China to live up to terms regarding Hong Kong, maybe?

[ericbj]

Globalisation is coming to an end, it seems.  The world is becoming increasingly regionalised.

It makes sense for Thailand to pass important contracts with China, while making-believe they are on the other side.
That was so in the days of confronting colonial expansion between Britain and France.

And during the Second World War - brief, face-saving, military resistance, followed by alliance with Japan and joint occupation of the hitherto self-governing Shan States.  Plus two resistance movements: a left-wing one backed by Britain and a right-wing one backed by the U.S.  The latter subsequently seized power and the Premier had to flee.  With results that are with us to this day.

[spidermike007]

19 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I heard they really fear the Laotian Navy. 

Would not be surprising. It is likely they are not aware that Laos does not have a navy. And since they seem to be scared of nearly everything, why not fear something that does not exist?