At that deep water port the US Navy built back during the Vietnam war era, along with the full military airbase and Navy Hospital the US left behind.

 

 

15 minutes, give or take.

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

Detention camps, just like the Americans did to the Japanese in 1942.

Kidding apart, the Chinese is setting up a major naval base in Cambodia, do they have a need for Sattathip?

3 minutes ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

Well more recently they rented the Port of Darwin to them.....no need for warships!!!!

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

 

Probably do what it did during WWII. Sit on the fence as long as possible .

 

The current government already has leanings towards China ( birds of a feather flock together , as do military dominated governments ) but remembering that they backed the wrong horse back in the 40's they would probably wish to avoid being seen  getting into Chinas bed and opening their legs again.

 

Instead, they would just acquiesce to any ' requests ' from China and dress it up as a an equal partnership  amongst friendly trading partners for the mutual benefit of both.

 

 

11 minutes ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

Pity New Zealand won't let anyone use the haka.  That would have put the wind up those pesky Chinese for sure.

4 minutes ago, Denim said:

 

Probably do what it did during WWII. Sit on the fence as long as possible .

 

The current government already has leanings towards China ( birds of a feather flock together , as do military dominated governments ) but remembering that they backed the wrong horse back in the 40's they would probably wish to avoid being seen  getting into Chinas bed and opening their legs again.

 

Instead, they would just acquiesce to any ' requests ' from China and dress it up as a an equal partnership  amongst friendly trading partners for the mutual benefit of both.

 

 

If the conflict involved the Phillipines or Vietnam those are Asean like Thailand.

Your right, Olmate. But it wasnt the Federal Government that  gave a 99 year lease to the  Chinese Government for Darwin Harbour,, it was the Northern Territory local (State Government) that did the dirty deal, it being  so far leaning to the  political left it walks around in ever decreasing circles.    The Federal Government is now  taking legal steps to cancel this deal, just as they did   against the Victorian, also Labor led, governent     multi million dollar contracts (handouts)

Depend on how horny them sailors are...

Edited November 27, 20214 yr by ezzra

12 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Detention camps, just like the Americans did to the Japanese in 1942.

Kidding apart, the Chinese is setting up a major naval base in Cambodia, do they have a need for Sattathip?

They need the Khra Canal so that they can get access to the Indian Ocean without going through the Straits of Malacca. Interest in the canal was revived by this Govt, but that is just coincidence. A Thai friend tells me Singapore bought Thaksin's telecom company off him as payment for NOT building the canal. I don't go that far  - Temasak was prioritising telco investments.

22 minutes ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

Well..if the federal government forgets to make announcement they will arrive "unannounced" ????

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-03/chinese-warships-enter-sydney-harbour-south-china-sea-claims/11172578

 

"Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the arrival of the warships in Sydney had been planned for some time."

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

If the conflict involved the Phillipines or Vietnam those are Asean like Thailand.

Yup.

 

My old Chinese boss told me how the Chinese like to go about getting what they want. Rather than grab the bull by the horns and go for direct confrontation ,  they will try to cut one leg of the chair at a time and hope it collapses on its own. Right now China is doing a lot of sabre rattling trying to scare of any potential allies Taiwan has in the hope that they will cower at the threat of war and let China take over Taiwan without interference ( as happened to Czechoslovakia )

 

If this does not happen then China will not invade. Having the biggest army or biggest population won't count for a hill of beans in reality. The Chinese people and the Chinese army have to eat. 

An attack on Taiwan would trigger such blanket sanctions in trading that the Chinese economy would collapse and people would start to starve. 

 

As unlikely as it may seem , they will get their ass handed to them on a plate.

 

IMO

 

 

Should we prefer American warships?

I have to admit I didn't follow every war on this earth in the last centuries. But it seems to me the Americans invaded more countries then the Chinese - obviously officially only to bring them democracy. 

33 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

They will detain you and use you to dig the Kra Canal. It will great movie material for future generations and don't worry, you will have no problem losing weight during your time in captivity. 

21 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Well more recently they rented the Port of Darwin to them.....no need for warships!!!!

It is a commercial port and that was commercial transaction...I guess nobody else was willing to pay but the Chinese.

The real fun would be further along the road if the Chinese try to implement the level of automation currently seen at the Chinese ports and try to get rid of the massively overpaid bogans employed there. Would keep the newspapers busy for a while.

7 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Should we prefer American warships?

I have to admit I didn't follow every war on this earth in the last centuries. But it seems to me the Americans invaded more countries then the Chinese - obviously officially only to bring them democracy. 

Why should any foreign warship dock in a country which used to take 40 million tourist per year? This wouldn't produce much confidence and leisurely thoughts for the average tourist. The Thai government is not that dumb to take sides in a perceived conflict where there is nothing beneficial for the country out of this.

11 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Should we prefer American warships?

I have to admit I didn't follow every war on this earth in the last centuries. But it seems to me the Americans invaded more countries then the Chinese - obviously officially only to bring them democracy. 

Still, the Chinese managed to butcher about 120 million people. The Chinese just practice the art of war domestically. 

https://borgenproject.org/top-12-deadliest-wars-in-history/

It will always be about the money.

Pay enough and make major economic promises and I bet the government here would be more then welcoming.  Maybe even throw in a free warship.

I can just hear a TAT spin.

 

Next year 1,000 Chinese warships will be docked at Sattahip!!

1 minute ago, gearbox said:

Why should any foreign warship dock in a country which used to take 40 million tourist per year? This wouldn't produce much confidence and leisurely thoughts for the average tourist. The Thai government is not that dumb to take sides in a perceived conflict where there is nothing beneficial for the country out of this.

or like back in WW2 when they sided with Japan thinking that'll keep'em all safe! 

- translated that to Now; and it's side with the PLA Navy berthed alongside, as it'll keep'em safe from the CCP new Hyper Missile Nukes if the PLA is still lingering nearby... 

Reality:  If the US and five-eye countries finally provoke a war with China over Taiwan (I'm betting they will before the end of the decade if not sooner) then the waters surrounding Thailand will be a Chinese "lake" and Thailand itself will become an autonomous region under Chinese patronage.  Thailand's northern border is less than a couple hundred kilometers from China as the crow flies. Thailand will follow the same lines of appeasement as it did in WWII.  Strategically for Thailand - aligning with the West in a fight with China would be suicidal.  They would quickly lose that "We've never been conquered" moniker it likes to wear.

Edited November 27, 20214 yr by ArcticFox

1 minute ago, ArcticFox said:

Reality:  If the US and five-eye countries finally provoke a war with China over Thailand (I'm betting they will before the end of the decade if not sooner) then the waters surrounding Thailand will be a Chinese "lake" and Thailand itself will become an autonomous region under Chinese patronage.  Thailand's northern border is less than a couple hundred kilometers as the crow flies. 

It will never happen. China is not capable of winning any conventional war against the US. They are a military power mostly because of the threat of mutual destruction through the use of nuclear weapons. The US military budget remains much larger than that of China.

9 minutes ago, ArcticFox said:

Reality:  If the US and five-eye countries finally provoke a war with China over Taiwan (I'm betting they will before the end of the decade if not sooner) then the waters surrounding Thailand will be a Chinese "lake" and Thailand itself will become an autonomous region under Chinese patronage.  Thailand's northern border is less than a couple hundred kilometers from China as the crow flies. Thailand will follow the same lines of appeasement as it did in WWII.  Strategically for Thailand - aligning with the West in a fight with China would be suicidal.  They would quickly lose that "We've never been conquered" moniker it likes to wear.

Why would they do that? And with they I mean: Why would the Chinese want such a war? And why would the Americans want such war? It would be stupid.

7 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

It will never happen. China is not capable of winning any conventional war against the US. They are a military power mostly because of the threat of mutual destruction through the use of nuclear weapons. The US military budget remains much larger than that of China.

Team America - World Police

6 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

It will never happen. China is not capable of winning any conventional war against the US. They are a military power mostly because of the threat of mutual destruction through the use of nuclear weapons. The US military budget remains much larger than that of China.

Japan was throwing some serious punches with a relative modest budget. 

The Chinese propaganda machine just released a 3 hours epic war movie where they beat the Americans in a battle during the Korean War, it hit new box office records. 

The CCP are slowly brainwashing the general population for war.

5 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Why would they do that? And with they I mean: Why would the Chinese want such a war? And why would the Americans want such war? It would be stupid.

China need Taiwan to be part of the mother land before the big 100 years celebration of the CCP in 2047.

It takes time for wounds to heal and the dust to settle, so expect they go kinetic 10-15 years prior to this date. The clock IS ticking.

1 minute ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Why would they do that? And with they I mean: Why would the Chinese want such a war? And why would the Americans want such war? It would be stupid.

China wants its One China policy and Taiwan reunification.  The US used to acknowledge that but now they are constantly poking China just as China pokes Taiwan.  I've got no dog in that fight - but I can read where it's heading.  And with the current hypersonic missile technology using conventional payloads, the superiority of surface ships to project power has pretty much come to an end globally if those ships end up pointed at China or Russia.  But most Westerners need to cheer for their own side.  I get it.

5 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

China need Taiwan to be part of the mother land before the big 100 years celebration of the CCP in 2047.

It takes time for wounds to heal and the dust to settle, so expect they go kinetic 10-15 years prior to this date. The clock IS ticking.

China and Taiwan would probably be unified peacefully at the request of Taiwan. The seeds of that were sown by Donald Trump with his chips war on China. Prior to that the Chinese were happy to buy chips designed and produced anywhere else, how they are hell bent on getting at the top of the food chain on this.

 

Taiwan's wealth is based on semiconductors and the export of them mainly to China. If the Chinese come ahead in that area expect Taiwan to become much poorer, and would be a matter of time a new "unification" party to come into existence. Of course in that scenario another possibility is a dictatorship and "our son of a ...", this has happened before.