How Long Before Chinese Warships are Docked in Sattahip ?

[actonion]

On 11/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

I think they would take the side of whoever is winning the battle, and change sides  later on if necessary

[placnx]

14 hours ago, WingFat said:

Chinese hypersonic missile test revealed unprecedented military capability: report | TheHill

 

China has developed a hypersonic glide missile that appears to have the capability to launch targeted missiles from the main glide missile. The main glide missile also appears to be able to continuously orbit the earth in an erratic fashion at hypersonic speeds thus making tracking and neutralizing the main glide missile very difficult. 

 

The orbital ability of this hypersonic missile would allow it to target numerous locations along its orbital path, and would be able to hit targets that have their early warning and anti-missile systems facing the opposite direction from an incoming missile launched from the main hypersonic glide missile.  It is very possible the missiles launched from the main glide missile could be armed with nuclear warheads.

 

This new weapon has the clear capability of being a surprise, little or no warning, FIRST STRIKE nuclear weapon. The Chinese indeed appear to have taken the MAD doctrine to a whole new level.

The MAD doctrine would work if neither side would execute a first strike. China has not pledged to desist from first strike. During the Trump era arms control negotiations were frustrated because China would not participate with Russia & US.

 

The hypersonic glide missile now breaches the weaponization of space, so a new Pandora's box is opening. America and others will may be obliged to develop space-based weapons to turn these Chinese missiles into more space junk. Unfortunately, these missiles may embolden the gamblers who want to grab Taiwan ASAP. 

[placnx]

14 hours ago, WingFat said:

Obama wasn't just asleep at the wheel, he deluded himself into believing if the US took the unilateral step to reduce its military strength and modernization, Russia and China would follow. Incredibly naive, or by some observations, stupid or traitorous.

 

Additionally, N. Korea made the most progress in having nukes during the Obama years.

During his campaign Obama had many volunteers who could have made a success of his office, but he passed over them when he took office. Placing a hospital administrator, Valerie Jarrett, as his gatekeeper was a poor and pivotal judgment. The failure of presidencies since Bush II has coincided with the emergence of China as the world's bully.

[WingFat]

14 hours ago, KhunLA said:

And a nuke sub w/nuke warheads chillin' out in the Sea of China isn't  1st strike weapon ???

USA, I think, has 14 nuke subs (offiially), w/ballistic nuke missiles, at least 10 on each sub, that can deliver 3 warheads each.  Potential of ~500 nukes to launch at any given time, any where ... from subs.

 

Surely China has just as many or more.  Good thing they friends, and war between them wouldn't be profitable to either.  Unplug from MSM ... preparing for the never to happen war is good for profits, nothing more, nothing less.

Yeah, the US indeed has those subs, which can be tracked by the Chinese navy and their missiles could much more easily be intercepted than the missiles ejected from a hypersonic glide missile orbiting the earth in an erratic fashion. That's the difference.

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, WingFat said:

Yeah, the US indeed has those subs, which can be tracked by the Chinese navy and their missiles could much more easily be intercepted than the missiles ejected from a hypersonic glide missile orbiting the earth in an erratic fashion. That's the difference.

You may want to research first, before replying...

"Are nuclear submarines undetectable?

 

 

 

 

Nicknamed the “Silent Service,” submarines are considered the most survivable nuclear weapons -delivery platform. They can stay submerged for weeks or even months at a time, and move relatively undetected while on patrol.Sep 24, 2564 BE"

Edited December 1, 2021 by KhunLA

[placnx]

22 hours ago, WingFat said:

Yeah, the US indeed has those subs, which can be tracked by the Chinese navy and their missiles could much more easily be intercepted than the missiles ejected from a hypersonic glide missile orbiting the earth in an erratic fashion. That's the difference.

Please cite some source reporting Chinese anti-missile missiles. The weapon released by the glide missile is reported to have missed target by 20 miles.

[WingFat]

4 hours ago, placnx said:

Please cite some source reporting Chinese anti-missile missiles. The weapon released by the glide missile is reported to have missed target by 20 miles.

China Tested Hypersonic Capability, U.S. Says | Arms Control Association

This article is just one of many.

 

OK, please share your source(s) about the missed target. Thanks. I do want to have the facts as I am sure you do too.

[WingFat]

4 hours ago, placnx said:

Please cite some source reporting Chinese anti-missile missiles. The weapon released by the glide missile is reported to have missed target by 20 miles.

Here's another source:

China’s Hypersonic Mystery Weapon Released Its Own Payload And Nobody Knows Why (Updated) (thedrive.com)

[placnx]

19 hours ago, WingFat said:

Here's another source:

China’s Hypersonic Mystery Weapon Released Its Own Payload And Nobody Knows Why (Updated) (thedrive.com)

This is interesting reading, but does not deal with China's defense against retaliation via submarine.  As far as China's capability to intercept missiles launched from a submarine, does China have something like THAAD or Aegis?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

These are systems to intercept ballistic missiles. Your previous post implied that China had this capability. Cruise missiles are another issue.

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

This is interesting reading, but does not deal with China's defense against retaliation via submarine.  As far as China's capability to intercept missiles launched from a submarine, does China have something like THAAD or Aegis?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

These are systems to intercept ballistic missiles. Your previous post implied that China had this capability. Cruise missiles are another issue.

China don't really need a good missile defense system, the West is not the aggressor and they know the West will never have the stomach to carpet bomb Shanghai or Beijing with nuces.

China will wait until some big earthquake hit Taiwan, then pour PLA resources on the island under the pretext they are helping their compadres.

The West will protest in the strongest language possible, but they will just meet a stonewall of lies from China.

[Isaan sailor]

14 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

China don't really need a good missile defense system, the West is not the aggressor and they know the West will never have the stomach to carpet bomb Shanghai or Beijing with nuces.

China will wait until some big earthquake hit Taiwan, then pour PLA resources on the island under the pretext they are helping their compadres.

The West will protest in the strongest language possible, but they will just meet a stonewall of lies from China.

Probable outcome.  But if the US administration has any stones—they would take immediate and permanent trade action.  Equal import/export values, and if China doesn’t buy their share of American products—make up the difference with steep tariffs.  Every western nation should do the same.  That would end Chinese belligerence and aggression once and for all.

[ExpatOilWorker]

24 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Probable outcome.  But if the US administration has any stones—they would take immediate and permanent trade action.  Equal import/export values, and if China doesn’t buy their share of American products—make up the difference with steep tariffs.  Every western nation should do the same.  That would end Chinese belligerence and aggression once and for all.

Trade actions are NEVER permanent and the CCP seem to have no qualms throwing Tencent,  Alibaba and Jack Ma under the bus in the name of total control.

Isolating China will just give wind in their sails to create an Yuan based global economy as an alternative to the dollar. 

[Isaan sailor]

27 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Trade actions are NEVER permanent and the CCP seem to have no qualms throwing Tencent,  Alibaba and Jack Ma under the bus in the name of total control.

Isolating China will just give wind in their sails to create an Yuan based global economy as an alternative to the dollar. 

If the western nations agree to combine trade sanctions against China—how could this put wind in their sails?  Who would they sell to?  A manufacturer of that size needs world markets—and not just 3rd world markets.

[WingFat]

3 hours ago, placnx said:

This is interesting reading, but does not deal with China's defense against retaliation via submarine.  As far as China's capability to intercept missiles launched from a submarine, does China have something like THAAD or Aegis?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

These are systems to intercept ballistic missiles. Your previous post implied that China had this capability. Cruise missiles are another issue.

I don't know if China has an Aegis or THAAD system. But I do know they can track our nuke subs and if they can track them, they can attack them. 

 

Further the trajectory of cruise missiles and sub-launched ballistic missiles follow a much more predictable path than a hypersonic weapon; hypersonic weapons follow a much more erratic path at Mach 5+ speeds. There is a graphic in one of the links I sent that shows this dynamic between standard ballistic missiles and cruise missiles vs hypersonic missiles.

 

All this being said, I also have something along the lines of "hope" that the US has technologies in place us peons don't know about yet...and perhaps the Chinese don't know about either. I currently live within about 100 miles of Edwards Air Force Base and also close to the US Army Proving Grounds just outside Yuma AZ...they're testing all kinds of stuff at these locations. Throw in the "skunk works" in Palmdale CA in the middle of the Mojave Desert where all sorts truly cutting edge technologies are being developed and tested.

Edited December 3, 2021 by WingFat
Additional information

[WingFat]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Probable outcome.  But if the US administration has any stones—they would take immediate and permanent trade action.  Equal import/export values, and if China doesn’t buy their share of American products—make up the difference with steep tariffs.  Every western nation should do the same.  That would end Chinese belligerence and aggression once and for all.

The cost of doing biz in China is much more expensive than it was just 5-10 years ago; many skilled jobs in China pay about the same as the same jobs in the west. So it's just not national security, but basic economics. If western cos have to pay more for work on the ground in China and then the shipping costs and the time lag that shipping across the ponds require, the economics of on-shoring back to the US gets better and better, particularly when those on-shoring efforts automate much of the work returning to the US.

 

Also, China started requiring US (and others, I believe) to set up their subsidiaries in China that are allowed to sell into China, be 51% owned by a Chinese partner...and the transfer of technology and IP to China becomes a realistic result in most cases. China also instituted arduous accounting and tax requirements for these foreign subsidiaries selling into China, that requires an expanded accounting staff. I've been through all this going back about 6-7 years ago.

Edited December 3, 2021 by WingFat

[ExpatOilWorker]

15 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

If the western nations agree to combine trade sanctions against China—how could this put wind in their sails?  Who would they sell to?  A manufacturer of that size needs world markets—and not just 3rd world markets.

Did they UK even bother to issue a diplomatic protest when China flushed the HK agreement down the drain?

The west will never impose total trade sanctions against China, they need China as much as China needs them.

At any given time it is always an election year in some country and the voters want their consumer goods.

[placnx]

21 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

China don't really need a good missile defense system, the West is not the aggressor and they know the West will never have the stomach to carpet bomb Shanghai or Beijing with nuces.

China will wait until some big earthquake hit Taiwan, then pour PLA resources on the island under the pretext they are helping their compadres.

The West will protest in the strongest language possible, but they will just meet a stonewall of lies from China.

The West will not make a nuclear attack on China as a first strike, but China is not making any promises.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Trade actions are NEVER permanent and the CCP seem to have no qualms throwing Tencent,  Alibaba and Jack Ma under the bus in the name of total control.

Isolating China will just give wind in their sails to create an Yuan based global economy as an alternative to the dollar. 

Maybe their push for a digital yuan is not just about knowing who is spending for what purpose. It could also be useful in spreading the yuan internationally. 

[placnx]

20 hours ago, WingFat said:

The cost of doing biz in China is much more expensive than it was just 5-10 years ago; many skilled jobs in China pay about the same as the same jobs in the west. So it's just not national security, but basic economics. If western cos have to pay more for work on the ground in China and then the shipping costs and the time lag that shipping across the ponds require, the economics of on-shoring back to the US gets better and better, particularly when those on-shoring efforts automate much of the work returning to the US.

 

Also, China started requiring US (and others, I believe) to set up their subsidiaries in China that are allowed to sell into China, be 51% owned by a Chinese partner...and the transfer of technology and IP to China becomes a realistic result in most cases. China also instituted arduous accounting and tax requirements for these foreign subsidiaries selling into China, that requires an expanded accounting staff. I've been through all this going back about 6-7 years ago.

Some companies are relocating production to other parts of Asia as well.

[kwilco]

So why does Chiba want to do this?

[kwilco]

Would the USA accept a similar situation around them?

 

 

[BuckAurelius]

The honest truth is that America cannot be the only country set against China. In case no one has noticed, America is deeply divided against itself. Therefore, in the absence of America, to stand against China, what other country is going to take America's place? 

 

My guess is none. Is Britain going to assume this role? Please. 

 

Are any other European countries going to assume this role? 

 

No. 

 

So let's sit back and enjoy Chinese hegemony for the next forty years. 

[Jingthing]

7 minutes ago, BuckAurelius said:

The honest truth is that America cannot be the only country set against China. In case no one has noticed, America is deeply divided against itself. Therefore, in the absence of America, to stand against China, what other country is going to take America's place? 

 

My guess is none. Is Britain going to assume this role? Please. 

 

Are any other European countries going to assume this role? 

 

No. 

 

So let's sit back and enjoy Chinese hegemony for the next forty years. 

What happens after 40 years?

[BuckAurelius]

9 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

What happens after 40 years?

China takes over as the supreme super power. And we, as Americans, Brits, Euros, and Aussies, wonder how this could have possibly happened. By then it's too late to do anything about it. 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, BuckAurelius said:

China takes over as the supreme super power. And we, as Americans, Brits, Euros, and Aussies, wonder how this could have possibly happened. By then it's too late to do anything about it. 

Perhaps. 

But there is something about China that I think limits their global power. Their culture centered around Han Chinese ethnicity. It doesn't translate well culturally internationally except in places like Thailand. The USA on the other hand with it's melting pot culture has had much more soft power appeal including via Hollywood. Soft power matters too. 

[Rhys]

Hmmm when the Thai submarine(s) are at dock and Party time is on the steel deck.

[kwilco]

USA foreign  policy rule one is to get it wrong.

Domestic policy rule one requires a bogeyman.

 

The rest of the world looks on in emotions ranging from aghast to derision.

 

There are so many posts on this thread that display a naivety that is so typical of US foreign policies for the last 100 years.

 

 

[kwilco]

13 hours ago, placnx said:

Maybe their push for a digital yuan is not just about knowing who is spending for what purpose. It could also be useful in spreading the yuan internationally. 

Like the dollar, you mean?

[kwilco]

13 hours ago, placnx said:

The West will not make a nuclear attack on China as a first strike, but China is not making any promises.

Seriously? Which Marvel mag did you get that from?

[Berkshire]

5 hours ago, BuckAurelius said:

The honest truth is that America cannot be the only country set against China. In case no one has noticed, America is deeply divided against itself. Therefore, in the absence of America, to stand against China, what other country is going to take America's place? 

 

My guess is none. Is Britain going to assume this role? Please. 

 

Are any other European countries going to assume this role? 

 

No. 

 

So let's sit back and enjoy Chinese hegemony for the next forty years. 

Unfortunately, you may be onto something.  China may just prove that a dictatorship/one-party system works better than a true democracy.  The USA doesn't need China to destroy it, America is doing that on its own.  Just look at the deep divisions in the US right now, not to mention in most of Europe.  While the USA bickers with itself, China is busy taking over the third world.  Africa, South America, SE Asia...China's going to own most of these places without their military having to lift a finger.