placnx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 12:03 PM, Denim said: Yup. My old Chinese boss told me how the Chinese like to go about getting what they want. Rather than grab the bull by the horns and go for direct confrontation , they will try to cut one leg of the chair at a time and hope it collapses on its own. Right now China is doing a lot of sabre rattling trying to scare of any potential allies Taiwan has in the hope that they will cower at the threat of war and let China take over Taiwan without interference ( as happened to Czechoslovakia ) If this does not happen then China will not invade. Having the biggest army or biggest population won't count for a hill of beans in reality. The Chinese people and the Chinese army have to eat. An attack on Taiwan would trigger such blanket sanctions in trading that the Chinese economy would collapse and people would start to starve. As unlikely as it may seem , they will get their ass handed to them on a plate. IMO If they suddenly took over Taiwan, where would the rest of the world get advanced semiconductors? World would have to accept China's fait accompli to avoid massive disruption to industry. Just look at the current problem with auto production worldwide, and that's only the result of rather elementary semiconductors in short supply. It will take three years for projected fabs in EU, US etc to be operational. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placnx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 23 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said: Why would they do that? And with they I mean: Why would the Chinese want such a war? And why would the Americans want such war? It would be stupid. Xi is a gambler with a pathological need to make a name for himself - greater than Mao. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post placnx Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 23 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said: China need Taiwan to be part of the mother land before the big 100 years celebration of the CCP in 2047. It takes time for wounds to heal and the dust to settle, so expect they go kinetic 10-15 years prior to this date. The clock IS ticking. Hong Kong autonomy only lasted 24 out of the promised 50 years. The "chaos" threatening "state security" presented an opening for action. Timing on Taiwan will depend on opportunity. The perception may be that there is a window to exploit. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Henryford Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 23 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said: Why would they do that? And with they I mean: Why would the Chinese want such a war? And why would the Americans want such war? It would be stupid. Because China is run by a mad dictator who has promised to take Taiwan. He can not back down without losing face. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placnx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 23 hours ago, gearbox said: Why would they...they are much richer than the Chinese, and what good would an authoritarian regime bring to them? However if the wealth is reversed the things are not that certain. Taiwanese made a mistake before to concentrate so much production of goods in China, thus giving China the economic power to finance the current military buildup. Now there is a scramble by Taiwan Semiconductor and others to build high value semi labs all over, not in China. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placnx Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 15 hours ago, gearbox said: It is not a sovereign state recognized by most of the countries in the world, but de facto is. However it names itself "Republic of China" and for long time was claiming ownership of the whole China. Taiwan maintained for long time the stance that Tibet is part of China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_sovereignty_debate The government of the Republic of China, which ruled mainland China from 1912 until 1949 and now controls Taiwan, had a cabinet-level Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission in charge of the administration of Tibet and Mongolia regions from 1912. The commission retained its cabinet level status after 1949, but no longer executes that function.[citation needed] On 10 May 1943, Chiang Kai-shek asserted that "Tibet is part of Chinese territory... No foreign nation is allowed to interfere in our domestic affairs".[24] He again declared in 1946 that the Tibetans were Chinese nationals.[25] The Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission was disbanded in 2017. You could compare Taiwan and China to North and South Korea, just the proportions are different. Same people divided by ideology. It's true that Chiang Kai Shek had a fantasy of retaking the mainland, and there was an secret action involving US and Taiwan in Tibet (50-60s). China's historical claim to Tibet rested on the Mongol assistance of one of the two main factions in Tibet in a civil war in the 11th Century. Afterwards the Mongols invaded China and began the Yuan Dynasty. Thereafter, at times there was an "amban", a sort of ambassador, but China did not control Tibet. Chinese warlords grabbed a northeastern piece of Tibet in 1911. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OneMoreFarang Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 40 minutes ago, Henryford said: Because China is run by a mad dictator who has promised to take Taiwan. He can not back down without losing face. So let's hope the Americans won't vote for that other mad guy again in 2024... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramrod711 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 12:27 PM, ozimoron said: It will never happen. China is not capable of winning any conventional war against the US. They are a military power mostly because of the threat of mutual destruction through the use of nuclear weapons. The US military budget remains much larger than that of China. And the next 11 countries behind China, including Russia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, ramrod711 said: And the next 11 countries behind China, including Russia True, but both the US and China are spending about 10-11% of federal/central government budget on military. In terms of bang for bucks, North Korea is really getting a the most out of their military budget. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirineou Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 18 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said: The American Civil War? At 750k casualties is bearly makes the top 40. 5 out of the 7 biggest conflicts involves the Chinese. They have more blood on their hands than anybody else. Only WWI and II are comparable in scale. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll The US population during the civil war was about 18 million people , now at 330 million it is 18x more . so as a proportion to the population in todays numbers it would be 13,500,000. To put these numbers in perspective, if out of 18 million , 750,000 died , means that one out every 24 people was killed. or about 4.2% of the US population. Someone pleas check my math, ???? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, sirineou said: The US population during the civil war was about 18 million people , now at 330 million it is 18x more . so as a proportion to the population in todays numbers it would be 13,500,000. To put these numbers in perspective, if out of 18 million , 750,000 died , means that one out every 24 people was killed. or about 4.2% of the US population. Someone pleas check my math, ???? You saved me the trouble of pointing that out. The exact math doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ExpatOilWorker Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, sirineou said: The US population during the civil war was about 18 million people , now at 330 million it is 18x more . so as a proportion to the population in todays numbers it would be 13,500,000. To put these numbers in perspective, if out of 18 million , 750,000 died , means that one out every 24 people was killed. or about 4.2% of the US population. Someone pleas check my math, ???? China has throughout history butchered 10-15% of their population in various civil wars. The American civil war is a grim past, but it helped shape the the identity of a young nation. Not so much in China, the dust of the dead just blew away and mean nothing to the current CCP. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirineou Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Just now, ExpatOilWorker said: China has throughout history butchered 10-15% of their population in various civil wars. The American civil war is a grim past, but it helped shape the the identity of a young nation. Not so much in China, the dust of the dead just blew away and mean nothing to the current CCP. If that's the case then China wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon43 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 8:27 AM, ozimoron said: It will never happen. China is not capable of winning any conventional war against the US. ... Yeah, yeah, keep on dreaming...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, simon43 said: Yeah, yeah, keep on dreaming...... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3140681/us-china-rivalry-who-has-stronger-military Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAMHERE Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 11:48 AM, Denim said: they backed the wrong horse back in the 40's That's debateable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ExpatOilWorker Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, sirineou said: If that's the case then China wins. China or the CCP will win? Japan and Germany lost in WWII, but they gain their freedom. Vietnam won the war, but many in Vietnam lost their freedom for many years. Similar, many of the former Soviet states were on the winning side, but it wasn't all that fun to live under a Stasi kind of system. What kind of victory did Afghanistan just win? Ticker parade all around, don't think so. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flossie35 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 12:22 PM, tifino said: or like back in WW2 when they sided with Japan thinking that'll keep'em all safe! - translated that to Now; and it's side with the PLA Navy berthed alongside, as it'll keep'em safe from the CCP new Hyper Missile Nukes if the PLA is still lingering nearby... I think they sort of sided with both sides, which was quite clever. While Japan was winning it would have made no sense for Thailand to declare war on Japan. And what reason would the Thais have to favour the western imperialists, from whose clutches they had but narrowly escaped, losing some territory in the process? (The European ones; US was not involved.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kinnock Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 China know's that their armed forces have never won a war, except against their own people, so they will use the same tactics that enabled them to win the Cold War ..... economics. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirineou Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said: What kind of victory did Afghanistan just win? Ticker parade all around, don't think so. Afghanistan did not win any victories, but at least the US learned not to butcher it's own population and instead butcher other country's people, Letch hope the Chines don't learn the same lesson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isaan sailor Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 How long before Chinese warships come? Not much longer than Chinese high speed trains pull into Bangkok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thingamabob Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 The chinese govt is already dictatlng policy to the current Thai govt. Very sad to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Tropposurfer Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 Ahh .. how the thought of no longer being the preeminent race on the planet unsettles ... For the historically uninitiated China has never first-striked anybody not in over 8000 years of known history. The current, and rapidly waining world power that to date has presided over us certainly can't claim one iota of a record such as that in its short 400 years history. Quite the opposite to be factually accurate is the case. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josephbloggs Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said: Ahh .. how the thought of no longer being the preeminent race on the planet unsettles ... For the historically uninitiated China has never first-striked anybody not in over 8000 years of known history. The current, and rapidly waining world power that to date has presided over us certainly can't claim one iota of a record such as that in its short 400 years history. Quite the opposite to be factually accurate is the case. Very true and difficult for many to stomach. But the US only invades countries to spread democracy and freedom don't forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bojo Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, josephbloggs said: Very true and difficult for many to stomach. But the US only invades countries to spread democracy and freedom don't forget. .........................still doesn't make it right though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post WingFat Posted November 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 12:34 AM, ArcticFox said: Team America - World Police Throw in the UK and OZ to that moniker (at far as Asia Pac is concerned); both agreed to team up with the US and further, OZ rebuffed France at the last minute in buying their electric powered subs in favor of the US nuke powered subs offered to them. Additionally, OZ will have US cruise missiles stationed on the OZ western coast capable of reaching the Straits of Malacca. The US cannot and probably would not challenge China on it's own. The US' military power alone within about 1,000 miles of the China coast would be severely challenged by China. Additionally, Japan, India, Vietnam, S. Korea, Singapore also do not want China as the New Hegemon in Asia Pac and they have developed cooperation with the US concerning the China issue. The trick is, they and the US also do not want a "hot war" either. Although China sure likes to threaten that it will "go hot" in taking over Taiwan. Outside that 1,000 mile line, China only has about 6-10 warships capable of being "blue water navy" ships and neither does China have the experience or know-how for operating a blue water navy. My point of all this is the US is not fooling itself into believing its massive military capability is enough to stop China on its own within this 1,000 mile zone and more importantly, it has sought and to a certain degree achieved alliances with other nations in the region to stand up to China. Not so much the actions of a hegemon world cop. Now if one prefers China to wear that Top World Police badge in Asia/Pac and elsewhere, be careful what one wishes for. China's foisting their virus upon the world is just one way they conduct warfare. To a certain degree, the US and much of the rest of the world is already at war with China; they just don't know it or don't want to know it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josephbloggs Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 hour ago, bojo said: .........................still doesn't make it right though No it doesn't. My post was sarcastic. Anyone that believes the US has ever invaded a country to spread freedom and democracy needs their head testing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gsxrnz Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 11:37 AM, HAPPYNUFF said: Not so very long ago, three Chinese national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour (thats in Australia for the geography challenged... ) Australian armed forces promptly responded by launching a wooden dinghy, armed with very large sticks and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country I despair at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country. It's long been argued that a small Chinese or Russian fishing trawler with a crew of ten with only five rusty AK47's between them could rock up to the Houses of Parliament in Wellington harbor and take over the country without firing a shot. For clarity, Wellington is the capital of New Zealand. For geographical accuracy, Australia is a small island of our western coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwwYesNice1 Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said: It's long been argued that a small Chinese or Russian fishing trawler with a crew of ten with only five rusty AK47's between them could rock up to the Houses of Parliament in Wellington harbor and take over the country without firing a shot. For clarity, Wellington is the capital of New Zealand. For geographical accuracy, Australia is a small island of our western coast. Someone even penned a book about it, but let's be honest nobody wants to invade NZ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusyB Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 6:19 AM, ExpatOilWorker said: Still, the Chinese managed to butcher about 120 million people. The Chinese just practice the art of war domestically. https://borgenproject.org/top-12-deadliest-wars-in-history/ One day, people, each and every one of us, will learn to take a good hard, deep, long look in the mirror, the Chinese as well, and will start to rectify their own iniquities and crimes rather than pointing towards others as justification or excuse for some more of them. To take responsibility for what their side has done, and their own individual part in those crimes, even if it was only through tacit acquiescence. It is unlikely that the 'other' side can ever be reined in by outsiders. The destruction of Germany and Japan in such an obvious good versus bad scenario is the exception not the norm. On that day peace will have a solid chance on this planet. Till then it's all pots and kettles. On an individual and an international sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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