24 minutes ago, gearbox said:

China and Taiwan would probably be unified peacefully at the request of Taiwan. The seeds of that were sown by Donald Trump with his chips war on China. Prior to that the Chinese were happy to buy chips designed and produced anywhere else, how they are hell bent on getting at the top of the food chain on this.

 

Taiwan's wealth is based on semiconductors and the export of them mainly to China. If the Chinese come ahead in that area expect Taiwan to become much poorer, and would be a matter of time a new "unification" party to come into existence. Of course in that scenario another possibility is a dictatorship and "our son of a ...", this has happened before.

Have you ever spoken with people from Taiwan ? I met a few through my Singaporean friends. They definitely dont want to unite. 

1 minute ago, robblok said:

Have you ever spoken with people from Taiwan ? I met a few through my Singaporean friends. They definitely dont want to unite. 

Why would they...they are much richer than the Chinese, and what good would an authoritarian regime bring to them? However if the wealth is reversed the things are not that certain.

2 hours ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

Let's just get the facts right shall we?

 

'Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the visit - which will last for four days- was not unexpected and was part of an ongoing programme'.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-48503310

19 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

Let's just get the facts right shall we?

 

'Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the visit - which will last for four days- was not unexpected and was part of an ongoing programme'.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-48503310

"Scott Morrison" said...! thats a good one.

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

Hope this would not be needed,

....at least hope not before 3th quarter 2022 as then i am in my E.U. country back ....all together with my own other reasons .

 

But i guess Xi is preparing for annexing Taiwan  eg. he asked the Chinese stockpile food ....it  seems sooner or a little later as  he like to become in history as the China unifier .....just same habits as Putin in that dream

 

Edited November 27, 20214 yr by david555

How long before Chinese warships are docked in Sattahip?

 

I should imagine that the salvage and rescue ships will arrive, oh, about two weeks after the first submarine is delivered.

2 hours ago, ArcticFox said:

If the US and five-eye countries finally provoke a war with China over Taiwan

Funny, I had it that Taiwan was an independent country, where the people in free and democratic elections has expressed the will of the people to stay independent of China.

If the world hadn't excepted China's occupation of Tibet. The problems we see now, would't be here.

3 hours ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

Should have hurled vegimite at them.

That would have done the trick.

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Still, the Chinese managed to butcher about 120 million people. The Chinese just practice the art of war domestically. 

https://borgenproject.org/top-12-deadliest-wars-in-history/

Are you forgetting the Civil War?

4 hours ago, robblok said:

Have you ever spoken with people from Taiwan ? I met a few through my Singaporean friends. They definitely dont want to unite. 

That's right.

 

My neighbors for many years are Taiwanese and they hate the Chinese government, putting pressure on Taiwan all the time and the country not fully recognized as an independent country.

 

If the Taiwanese wants to stay independent they should be left alone.

 

The people of Gibraltar voted to stay with the UK and not over-go to Spain and that was accepted by everyone.

 

 

Beware of the sneaky and imagined Yellow Peril....

2 hours ago, giddyup said:

Are you forgetting the Civil War?

The American Civil War?

At 750k casualties is bearly makes the top 40.

5 out of the 7 biggest conflicts involves the Chinese. They have more blood on their hands than anybody else. Only WWI and II are comparable in scale.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll

Edited November 27, 20214 yr by ExpatOilWorker

China is not going to invade Taiwan any time soon, most likely never, for a couple of reasons:

1. 100 miles of sea separate the two.  Look how hard it has been for European armies to invade the UK - even the Nazis at their peak, and that's just 20 miles away.  Going in the other direction, in the biggest invasion of its type, it took almost two years of planning for D-Day. And that was with the sea and air controlled by those doing the invading.  For China to cross 100 miles of sea controlled by US submarines and US, Taiwanese, and potentionally Japanese, frigates, under the bombardment of the airforces of those same countries, would be suicidal.

 

2. The Chinese army is untested in actual combat.  A Chinese leader, whether it be Xi Jinping, or any future one, is not likely to roll the dice to find out just how good, or bad, they really are.  Coupled with the previous one child policy (the death of one son in a four son family is a huge sadness, but the death of the only son and child is a disaster), means a war that goes badly with a lot of casualties - all of them only sons, results in the end of that leader, and possibly the end of the CCP.

 

Sure, China could try pummelling Taiwan into dust without actally invading it.  But it would very quickly find its own cities facing similar, thus escalating matters - likely to the point of nuclear war.  Is it willing to go down that path?

 

And, what would be the aim of an invasion?  The most common one spouted is to get its hands on Taiwan's semiconductor making expertise.  So, you start a sea-bourne invasion.  Fight your way across 100 miles of open sea.  Then the survivors drag themselves up the beaches and fight their way to the chip making factories to find them gutted and all essential personel have already flown to Japan and the US.  These aren't oil wells that can't be taken anywhere, and to the victor go the spoils, they're mobile people and expertise that can set up anywhere and carry on.  Meanwhile, (assuming the invasion is "successful") China is in control of a war torn Taiwan, with no viable factories and little infrastructure, and with a badly worn down military, while the rest of the world embargoes it, sets economic sanctions and refuses to sell it raw materials or buy its products.  Economic, military and social disaster.

 

You think the Chinese leadership don't realise that?  There is a joke about an old Soviet era intelligence man who says just after the end of the cold war "if we had only known we could have bought London and Paris and the Riviera, we wouldn't have wasted all that money on weapons over the past 50 years".  China seems to be smarter than the Soviets.  It's actively recruiting Taiwanese chip makers, offering them big bucks to move to Shanghai and Shenzhen.  Same culture, same food, same language, direct hour long flights.  Today 25% of all male Taiwanese passport holders, and around 60% of all Taiwanese living overseas, live on the mainland.  China doesn't need an invasion when it can buy the expertise for far less money, effort and risk.

 

But, it does suit the Western narrative to have a baddy sitting across the water to blame for ones own incompetencies.  It also suits China for the same reason.  It would just take one incident such as a Chinese plane buzzing Taiwan, or a US one doing the same to China, brings down one from the other side to light the spark.  Though even then, past instances have shown that diplomacy has won out.  The sad thing is, the two will need each other when it comes to any definitive battle against Islamic militarism and its like.  It's all too easy for bigots on both sides to declare it's about time to teach the other a lesson, but the reality is, the world is a far better off place with the status quo.

5 hours ago, bokningar said:

Funny, I had it that Taiwan was an independent country, where the people in free and democratic elections has expressed the will of the people to stay independent of China.

If the world hadn't excepted China's occupation of Tibet. The problems we see now, would't be here.

You got it wrong here. The name of the country is Taiwan ROC, or Republic of China. There are 2 Chinas, the Republic of China (Taiwan), and the People's Republic of China (the mainland) For long time both claimed that they are the sole legitimate representative of the Chinese people, and all of China belongs to them. If you look at the claims in South China Sea you'll see Taiwan has the same disputes as mainland China.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea

 

 

7 hours ago, Moonlover said:

Let's just get the facts right shall we?

 

'Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the visit - which will last for four days- was not unexpected and was part of an ongoing programme'.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-48503310

Unbelievable that people believe Chinese navy ships would actually sail in to Sydney harbour unannounced.  Is the anti-China propaganda machine really that effective?  (Seems so on this forum anyway)

13 minutes ago, gearbox said:

You got it wrong here. The name of the country is Taiwan ROC, or Republic of China. There are 2 Chinas, the Republic of China (Taiwan), and the People's Republic of China (the mainland) For long time both claimed that they are the sole legitimate representative of the Chinese people, and all of China belongs to them. If you look at the claims in South China Sea you'll see Taiwan has the same disputes as mainland China.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea

 

 

Did you read what it says in the wiki you linked to. Taiwan is a"sovereign state"

So could you please read what I wrote again and tell me exactly what I got wrong. If I have my facts wrong, I'm happy to learn new thing. 

 

The South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims within the region by several sovereign states, namely Brunei, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

9 minutes ago, bokningar said:

Did you read what it says in the wiki you linked to. Taiwan is a"sovereign state"

So could you please read what I wrote again and tell me exactly what I got wrong. If I have my facts wrong, I'm happy to learn new thing. 

 

The South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims within the region by several sovereign states, namely Brunei, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

It is not a sovereign state recognized by most of the countries in the world, but de facto is. However it names itself "Republic of China" and for long time was claiming ownership of the whole China. Taiwan maintained for long time the stance that Tibet is part of China.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_sovereignty_debate

 

The government of the Republic of China, which ruled mainland China from 1912 until 1949 and now controls Taiwan, had a cabinet-level Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission in charge of the administration of Tibet and Mongolia regions from 1912. The commission retained its cabinet level status after 1949, but no longer executes that function.^{[citation needed]} On 10 May 1943, Chiang Kai-shek asserted that "Tibet is part of Chinese territory... No foreign nation is allowed to interfere in our domestic affairs".^[24] He again declared in 1946 that the Tibetans were Chinese nationals.^[25] The Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission was disbanded in 2017.

 

You could compare Taiwan and China to North and South Korea, just the proportions are different. Same people divided by ideology.

7 hours ago, gearbox said:

So could you please read what I wrote again and tell me exactly what I got wrong

Didn't relay find the answer in your post. So could you please clarify? 

they don't need to with the sub base thats being built in Cambodia,

 

''China is not going to invade Taiwan any time soon''

My Taiwanese friend says that China owns all the Taiwan infrastructure by proxy and can bring the country to its knees in 24 hours.
With the advent of hypersonic missiles now making conventional warfare obsolete be prepared for saber rattling like we have never seen before.

23 hours ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

Not so very long ago, three   Chinese  national warships sailed, unannounced , into Sydney Harbour  (thats in Australia for the   geography challenged... )       Australian armed forces promptly responded  by launching a wooden dinghy, armed  with very large sticks  and some stones,, to check on them.............Though I love my country  I despair  at the governments feeble efforst to protect the country.

You think the Aussie navy is bad, check out the Canadian Navy. A canoe and a rubber duck dinghy.

15 hours ago, ballpoint said:

China is not going to invade Taiwan any time soon, most likely never, for a couple of reasons:

1. 100 miles of sea separate the two.  Look how hard it has been for European armies to invade the UK - even the Nazis at their peak, and that's just 20 miles away.  Going in the other direction, in the biggest invasion of its type, it took almost two years of planning for D-Day. And that was with the sea and air controlled by those doing the invading.  For China to cross 100 miles of sea controlled by US submarines and US, Taiwanese, and potentionally Japanese, frigates, under the bombardment of the airforces of those same countries, would be suicidal.

 

2. The Chinese army is untested in actual combat.  A Chinese leader, whether it be Xi Jinping, or any future one, is not likely to roll the dice to find out just how good, or bad, they really are.  Coupled with the previous one child policy (the death of one son in a four son family is a huge sadness, but the death of the only son and child is a disaster), means a war that goes badly with a lot of casualties - all of them only sons, results in the end of that leader, and possibly the end of the CCP.

 

Sure, China could try pummelling Taiwan into dust without actally invading it.  But it would very quickly find its own cities facing similar, thus escalating matters - likely to the point of nuclear war.  Is it willing to go down that path?

 

And, what would be the aim of an invasion?  The most common one spouted is to get its hands on Taiwan's semiconductor making expertise.  So, you start a sea-bourne invasion.  Fight your way across 100 miles of open sea.  Then the survivors drag themselves up the beaches and fight their way to the chip making factories to find them gutted and all essential personel have already flown to Japan and the US.  These aren't oil wells that can't be taken anywhere, and to the victor go the spoils, they're mobile people and expertise that can set up anywhere and carry on.  Meanwhile, (assuming the invasion is "successful") China is in control of a war torn Taiwan, with no viable factories and little infrastructure, and with a badly worn down military, while the rest of the world embargoes it, sets economic sanctions and refuses to sell it raw materials or buy its products.  Economic, military and social disaster.

 

You think the Chinese leadership don't realise that?  There is a joke about an old Soviet era intelligence man who says just after the end of the cold war "if we had only known we could have bought London and Paris and the Riviera, we wouldn't have wasted all that money on weapons over the past 50 years".  China seems to be smarter than the Soviets.  It's actively recruiting Taiwanese chip makers, offering them big bucks to move to Shanghai and Shenzhen.  Same culture, same food, same language, direct hour long flights.  Today 25% of all male Taiwanese passport holders, and around 60% of all Taiwanese living overseas, live on the mainland.  China doesn't need an invasion when it can buy the expertise for far less money, effort and risk.

 

But, it does suit the Western narrative to have a baddy sitting across the water to blame for ones own incompetencies.  It also suits China for the same reason.  It would just take one incident such as a Chinese plane buzzing Taiwan, or a US one doing the same to China, brings down one from the other side to light the spark.  Though even then, past instances have shown that diplomacy has won out.  The sad thing is, the two will need each other when it comes to any definitive battle against Islamic militarism and its like.  It's all too easy for bigots on both sides to declare it's about time to teach the other a lesson, but the reality is, the world is a far better off place with the status quo.

A very well thought put post, but and there is a big but. Please list one, just a single major military power that have NOT used their military externally at some point thought out history. 

Once you have a big military, it will be used and China have a very big military. 

Thailand has a track record of choosing the wrong side ie WW2. ????

On 11/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

Make like an Ostrich.

On 11/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

I think they will try to play both sides , wait and see who is likely to win and be their best friend. 

On 11/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, Jingthing said:

The larger question is how would Thailand react if an actual military conflict develops between China and the US over a flashpoint like Taiwan. Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

Thailand will swear no allegiance to either.

On 11/27/2021 at 11:42 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Detention camps, just like the Americans did to the Japanese in 1942.

Kidding apart, the Chinese is setting up a major naval base in Cambodia, do they have a need for Sattathip?

China like to insert dots on the map... and then join them up with a solid line.

On 11/27/2021 at 11:56 AM, ezzra said:

Depend on how horny them sailors are...

Them sailors have a liking for shrimp, not oysters.

[sorry I thought you said hungry]

On 11/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, Jingthing said:

Also impact on western expats especially Americans.

And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend, I'll say it clear
I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
I've lived a life that's full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more than this,

The Americans built the Sattahip naval port along with the nearby Utapao airport and airports in Korat, Udon and Ubon.  I am sure hte Chinese would be very happy with all of them. The Taliban are very pleased with all the military bases builty by the Americans along with all the modern weaponry donated.