mommysboy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 For some it's just a cold, but for others it may be a very harsh URTI that could require hospital treatment. For a very small minority, usually already ill or very old, it could mean ICU. The real danger is that inappropriate public policy could lead to panic and people turning up at hospitals for what is essentially a cold, unwarranted shut downs, and large scale incarceration which would be absurd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkk Brian Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 ATK positive 2,244. PCR 7,526. Total positive 9,770 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NicholasTH Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 People wondering why they are keeping Phuket open is because you can shut down an Island faster then the whole country.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said: Isn't it obvious that the easily transmittable Omicron will result in a massive uptick in infections? I have two colleagues self-isolating after positive ATK tests, but presumably people like them are not included in the numbers. There must be thousands more like that. Fortunately, the symptoms are negligible. Their symptoms may be negligible. On a population basis we might conclude that most will not suffer badly. But a significant number will become seriously ill. I'm not saying we don't have to just face this one out, but no point making out this is trivial. Edited January 7, 2022 by mommysboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spidermike007 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 These are likely to be mostly Omi numbers. Few associated deaths. Milder symptoms. The numbers are likely to spike, then they will drop dramatically. Game over. Stop the panic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cake Monster Posted January 7, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said: PCR test positive cases, total of 7,526 official new infections. 19 official covid deaths recorded. Rapid tests not yet updated https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/ Rolling 7 day average chart (up to 5th Jan) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand I think it would be fair to say, that when the Rapid tests are added, the number of cases will be well over double the 7,526 so far released. That will take to number to over 15,000, which comes as no surprise to me, and the number when rapid tests are added could well be 20 K plus. Had to go to Pattaya Banglamung Hospital this AM for a regular checkup the Wife has to do. We arrived at 07.10 AM Blood Test - No can do Doctor - No can do Meds - No can do Meds to be posted ASAP to our Home Address Outside the Hospital awaiting tests I guess, Hundreds of People Inside, hardly anybody, and when the Missus asked why, She was told that many Doctors were not working as they were scared of catching Covid A very close to meltdown situation me thinks. Edited January 7, 2022 by Cake Monster 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smedly Posted January 7, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted January 7, 2022 The profile for this virus has completely changed - I wonder if we had started with omicron 2 years ago would we even be discussing it, as the days roll on and more data becomes available I am feeling more and more optomistic Also the impression is that omicron is replacing delta - I don't think that is actually the right way of thinking it, we had pretty much defeated delta with vaccines etc so it was on the way out - omicron has put covid on the radar again and all the measures that defeated delta are not so effective but vaccines do appear to be preventing people getting seriously ill - yes there are some hospitlisations but few of them are needing higher care and are recovering quickly Lets hope this trend solidifies over the next few weeks 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkk Brian Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said: Just saw the numbers posted on the news, There is quite a jump upwards, ut then this is just from PCR tests and without the ATK tests added in. I think that with testing at home being available many of the positive ATK test results may never be reported unles the person truly needs assistance and goes to a hospital where a PCR test is given. How many of the ATK tests that do get posted are then followed up with a PCR test and then those positives counted either the next day or days after. It is a vicious cycle. In the US most of the ATK tests are not being performed at home but in facilities where those positives are then counted in the total case loads. With the New Years Holiday only 6 days past and people just returning this week, I think we will not see the true spread for about another 14 days and then hopefully we see the peak as many other countries are seeing after about 30 days before the numbers start to fall. It is a rapid spike upwards and yes we can use that word "Exponential" now. This is the worldometers graph from this morning for the world, you can see the spikes in cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Even though we are still seeing many deaths those numbers are trending downward even with the mass of Omicron cases in the world. London was a barometer for the UK, being the first city to get Omicron and massive spread. In the last few days it slowed and seemed to be peaking, good news is that is now confirmed. Thanks to its previous massive wall of protection in vaccines and previous immunity. Charts and more info in the tweet. "Downtrend in cases and hospitalizations in London now confirmed. So hosp/case rate about 25% of levels 1 year ago as discussed above. Interestingly, very little change in # patients on ventilators (in ICU, essentially) compared to before the Omicron wave." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riparian Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, anchadian said: https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1479233904062398465 Just to be clear - these provincial figures do not include arrivals (or prisons). Totals, including arrivals, for Phuket = 415 and for Chonburi = 1402 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=province 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThailandRyan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, LoveThai94 said: It is a vicious cycle. In the US most of the ATK tests are not being performed at home but in facilities where those positives are then counted in the total case loads. The above statement is false! All public testing in the US is PCR. Please tell us what State, County or City is using rapid testing. You can buy rapid testing from any pharmacy or amazon and use it at home, Airlines recommends guided tests that you can use for travel that are recommended by the CDC to make it easier to test for entry into the US. Guided rapid testing are also used for events. Not all public testing is done using PCR test. Facilities such as nursing homes and other locales including pharmacies do perform ATK test and then report them to their local CDC. If you test positive doing an at home test you also are supposed to be reporting the results to your local CDC who then uploads that information into the CARES Data base. Virginia is one of many States that report. With the new authorization in December for more Antigen tests being made to the public, and folks not reporting a positive test all, this does is create an issue of the actual spread of the virus and thus facilities who test using Antigen tests will follow up with PCR. Do some research. Edited January 7, 2022 by ThailandRyan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The best advice the government could issue is for retirees to self isolate as much as possible, wear masks, and keep well up to date with jabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkk Brian Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said: Actually my suggestion would to treat people who intentionally decided not to take a vaccination very differently and make them pay for their hospital treatment. I don't know about you but I find these NYC COVID charts compelling. Purple line = unvaxxed. Orange = vaxxed. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#daily 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said: London was a barometer for the UK, being the first city to get Omicron and massive spread. In the last few days it slowed and seemed to be peaking, good news is that is now confirmed. Thanks to its previous massive wall of protection in vaccines and previous immunity. Charts and more info in the tweet. "Downtrend in cases and hospitalizations in London now confirmed. So hosp/case rate about 25% of levels 1 year ago as discussed above. Interestingly, very little change in # patients on ventilators (in ICU, essentially) compared to before the Omicron wave." The other interesting thing is only 66% of Londoners are vaccinated and it has a high proportion of at risk groups. So, tentatively it could be that the virus itself is less serious, and it's not just a case of the vaccines working. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said: Not true David, not true. The tests may be less sensitive to Omicron because it starts in the throat area first before moving up to the nasal cavities. The Saliva tests are finding it before the nasal ATK tests as a friend found out, which I posted about yesterday. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/home-covid-19-tests-detect-omicron-variant-82058448 https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-01-at-home-omicron-early-stages-infection.html The researchers focused on 30 people infected with COVID at five workplaces that experienced what were most likely outbreaks of the Omicron variant last month. The people received both saliva-based PCR tests (the gold standard) and rapid antigen-based tests involving nasal swabs. It took three days, on average, for people to test positive on the two rapid antigen tests after their first positive PCR result, researchers reported. In four cases, people transmitted the virus to others after a negative result, according to the study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed. It is not yet clear whether the infections were missed because the antigen tests are inherently less sensitive to Omicron or because saliva tests may be better at detecting the new variant, The New York Times reported. Is there some part of “cheap ATK kits are not so good at detecting Omicron “ that I got wrong? Lots of symptomatic people I know have negative ATK results, while their friends are now in quarantine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, Cake Monster said: I think it would be fair to say, that when the Rapid tests are added, the number of cases will be well over double the 7,526 so far released. That will take to number to over 15,000, which comes as no surprise to me, and the number when rapid tests are added could well be 20 K plus. Had to go to Pattaya Banglamung Hospital this AM for a regular checkup the Wife has to do. We arrived at 07.10 AM Blood Test - No can do Doctor - No can do Meds - No can do Meds to be posted ASAP to our Home Address Outside the Hospital awaiting tests I guess, Hundreds of People Inside, hardly anybody, and when the Missus asked why, She was told that many Doctors were not working as they were scared of catching Covid A very close to meltdown situation me thinks. I dunno, I went for a PCR test this morning at Bangkok Hospital Pattaya, and the testing unit was empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkk6060 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I think the government will do little more and let this take its course. But, Pattaya seems a cesspool of infection. Too many people still drinking in large crowds then guys going to those massage shops in and around Treetown and having close contact. Freelancers everywhere. Just continuing to spread the Covid seed amongst each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said: You are confused. By far, unvaccinateds are driving this latest wave. I blame unvaccinated people for this wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James105 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, smedly said: The profile for this virus has completely changed - I wonder if we had started with omicron 2 years ago would we even be discussing it, as the days roll on and more data becomes available I am feeling more and more optomistic Also the impression is that omicron is replacing delta - I don't think that is actually the right way of thinking it, we had pretty much defeated delta with vaccines etc so it was on the way out - omicron has put covid on the radar again and all the measures that defeated delta are not so effective but vaccines do appear to be preventing people getting seriously ill - yes there are some hospitlisations but few of them are needing higher care and are recovering quickly Lets hope this trend solidifies over the next few weeks I wish, but too many people have bought into the narrative that covid is a death sentence no matter which variant it is, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Even if there were no deaths from this variant, unless the testing, hospitalisation and quarantine of healthy, vaccinated people comes to and end I do not see how we get out of this. Vaccines were supposed to give people/governments confidence to face the world with covid in it again, but they have failed miserably in that task and most people seem even more scared of a milder variant with vaccines today than the least mild variant without vaccines in 2020. My (depressing) prediction is that the government here will use this new variant as an excuse to shut down bars and not allow alcohol in any restaurant (even spacious outdoor ones) until at least June and extort cash from any foreigner foolish enough to get a test from the authorities with their new quarantine hotels even if they have their own house/condo to isolate in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cake Monster Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 With only 64 % ( 45 M ) of Thais having received Two Doses of Vaccine, that leaves a massive 36 % that will be wide open to any Infections being transmitted. 36 % of the population is roughly 26 Million people, and if only 10 % of those are going to need medical care in a Hospital, that is a massive number. ( 260 K ) A number for which the Thai Health Care System will not be able to care for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, James105 said: I wish, but too many people have bought into the narrative that covid is a death sentence no matter which variant it is, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Even if there were no deaths from this variant, unless the testing, hospitalisation and quarantine of healthy, vaccinated people comes to and end I do not see how we get out of this. Vaccines were supposed to give people/governments confidence to face the world with covid in it again, but they have failed miserably in that task and most people seem even more scared of a milder variant with vaccines today than the least mild variant without vaccines in 2020. My (depressing) prediction is that the government here will use this new variant as an excuse to shut down bars and not allow alcohol in any restaurant (even spacious outdoor ones) until at least June and extort cash from any foreigner foolish enough to get a test from the authorities with their new quarantine hotels even if they have their own house/condo to isolate in. Wrong again. Unvaccinateds are by far more likely to be infected, and they are dying by the thousands. You can read about them at: http://Www.sorryantivaxxer.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkk Brian Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, mommysboy said: The other interesting thing is only 66% of Londoners are vaccinated and it has a high proportion of at risk groups. So, tentatively it could be that the virus itself is less serious, and it's not just a case of the vaccines working. When was that figure recorded and was it from age 12 years up? Regards Omicron I thought we already know it was milder even without vaccinations but vaccinations bring a level of protection to reduce serious illness and deaths 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James105 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Danderman123 said: Wrong again. Unvaccinateds are by far more likely to be infected, and they are dying by the thousands. You can read about them at: http://Www.sorryantivaxxer.com straw man. Try actually reading what I said before answering a point that I didn't make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, AndyFoxy said: It's a cold. Time to move on. Hospitals in Thailand are preparing for mass numbers of patients. Do you think they are making a mistake? NY reports highest single-day COVID deaths since mass vaccination began Edited January 7, 2022 by Danderman123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, James105 said: straw man. Try actually reading what I said before answering a point that I didn't make. Do you disagree that unvaccinateds are far more likely to die from Covid? It’s that death thing that worries so many people, but vaccinated Don’t worry so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smedly Posted January 7, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, James105 said: Vaccines were supposed to give people/governments confidence to face the world with covid in it again, but they have failed miserably in that task don't agree James, we had pretty much stopped delta in its tracks as far as omicron goes - like I said - it is completely different animal and if it had been the very first strain to come along what would we saying about it - likely nothing anyway lets hope it turns out to be how it is looking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThailandRyan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Danderman123 said: Is there some part of “cheap ATK kits are not so good at detecting Omicron “ that I got wrong? Lots of symptomatic people I know have negative ATK results, while their friends are now in quarantine. maybe you should have said cheaply made ATK tests, then I could have accepted that but not Cheap ATK Kits. Many tests are good and do the job and are inexpensive Cheap. Can you see that now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveThai94 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 34 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said: Not all public testing is done using PCR test. Facilities such as nursing homes and other locales including pharmacies do perform ATK test and then report them to their local CDC. If you test positive doing an at home test you also are supposed to be reporting the results to your local CDC who then uploads that information into the CARES Data base. Virginia is one of many States that report. With the new authorization in December for more Antigen tests being made to the public, and folks not reporting a positive test all, this does is create an issue of the actual spread of the virus and thus facilities who test using Antigen tests will follow up with PCR. Do some research. You used the word "MOST" which is false! and you know that! Fact "Most ATK test are used for individuals and institutions, most people who test positive will do a follow up PCR" Don't try to back up your fake news, the statement made was a deceptive one and you know it. Now go back and recall this false claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said: maybe you should have said cheaply made ATK tests, then I could have accepted that but not Cheap ATK Kits. Many tests are good and do the job and are inexpensive Cheap. Can you see that now. No. I am seeing symptomatic people test negative on ATK and positive via RT-PCR. Edited January 7, 2022 by Danderman123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluetongue Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 WHO is saying that Delta is still the dominant strain, who am I to argue. But on the face of it with global infections over 2 million per day, more than double the previous highs, I cant understand what statistic they are using, if for instance Omicron is dominant in the US Australia and the UK that is already roughly half the global cases. Is it an attempt to reinvigorate the vaccination campaign in the 3rd world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stigar Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, LoveThai94 said: You used the word "MOST" which is false! and you know that! Fact "Most ATK test are used for individuals and institutions, most people who test positive will do a follow up PCR" Don't try to back up your fake news, the statement made was a deceptive one and you know it. Now go back and recall this false claim. I took a ATK test yesterday at a teststation.I get he answer at my phone after 1 hour.Negative. Anyway they told me to ake a PCR too.Will get the answer tonigth or tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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