I just bought $200,000 of Bitcoin

[2009]

11 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Investing in an asset that has been increasing in value on average 100% a year? 

 

Please explain. 

It could just as easily lose 80% of its value and take 3 years to recover.

 

That's typically the way crypto goes.

 

Wonder how OP will feel then? And if he'll hold?

 

He'd be sitting with like 40 grand, down from 200, feeling pretty stupid for a few years.

Edited February 20, 2022 by 2009

[happydreamer]

21 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Not exactly an apples to apples comparison.  Real Estate is a commodity.  Not any different than soybeans, pork bellies, orange juice and oil.   

Real estate, may be "income producing" such an an apartment building, office building, or shopping mall.  A single family home is "not an investment" it is a way of life.  People may find that the price of their home appreciates over time but one has to be careful defining appreciation.  If a home is purchased for $300,000 and 30 years later it sells for $600,000 is that "appreciation" or is it merely reflecting the higher costs of replacement. 

If you are purchasing a home to live in, that is "not an investment"  If you are purchasing a single family home, office building, vacant land, or a shopping mall to rent, those are investments.  If you are buying real estate to "flip" that is not an investment that is speculation.  Same is true with Crypto.  It is speculation based on the greater fool theory. 
 

 

Good explanation.  And people buying stocks on projected earnings for a company?  Speculation too?

[Pravda]

1 hour ago, 2009 said:

It could just as easily lose 80% of its value and take 3 years to recover.

 

That's typically the way crypto goes.

 

Wonder how OP will feel then? And if he'll hold?

 

He'd be sitting with like 40 grand, down from 200, feeling pretty stupid for a few years.

 

First of all I sold half for a small profit.

 

I'm now down about $5000 including the fees.

 

I'm waiting for another entry point.

[dj230]

38 minutes ago, Pravda said:

 

First of all I sold half for a small profit.

 

I'm now down about $5000 including the fees.

 

I'm waiting for another entry point.

I thought you bought 100k at $51k (CAD) again?

 

If so you'd be down around $8600 before fees, which isn't that bad, just 4%. At least you can write off crypto losses on your taxes now though if it does stay down. Im assuming you're Canadian so theres no $3000 cap like in the states.

 

Also if you trade crypto short term you're taxed as a day trader, that's always fun. 

 

On 2/18/2022 at 8:33 AM, Pravda said:

Entry point 51,000 for 100k Canadian.

 

 

On 2/16/2022 at 3:35 PM, Neeranam said:

I've had Polkadot in a US bank(Kraken) for a year and been earning 12% Apr on it.

It is automatically restaked.

I've recently decided to use my interest to prent a 4 bedroomed pool villa in Hua Hin. I'd planned to sell it to buy a house but really makes no sense to sell a prime asset, when getting such great rewards.

 

I just saw this post while looking at some past ones, so you lost 50% on your capital, but was given 12% APR on it? Since your money is "restaked" now you're making 12% on your 50% loss, so you're getting 6% on your initial capital and lost 50%. Not only that but assuming you kept all your interest in the account to restake, all your interest has lost it's value as well. 

 

On top of that this is all taxed, doesn't sound like great rewards to me 

 

It's funny, it sure sounds like staking is just institutions putting a short bet on the crypto. 

Edited February 20, 2022 by dj230

[lkn]

1 hour ago, happydreamer said:

Good explanation.  And people buying stocks on projected earnings for a company?  Speculation too?

Normally when using the word “speculation” about stocks, it is when fundamentals does not match the price.

 

For example, I don’t see anything that justifies Tesla’s current stock price, other than speculation about them becoming one of the dominant players within the next decade and selling close to 10 million cars per year at a good margin. It could happen, but there are many unknowns, so to me, this is a speculative bet.

 

But there are many large, well-established, and financially sound companies that have operated for many years and that have dependable earnings, often paying dividends to investors. Buying stocks in these companies is not really speculation, as they will post quarterly earnings and give guidance about next quarter, with their projected future earnings often just a small percentage higher than their last earnings, consistent with their long history of operation.

[Pravda]

37 minutes ago, dj230 said:

I thought you bought 100k at $51k (CAD) again?

 

If so you'd be down around $8600 before fees, which isn't that bad, just 4%. At least you can write off crypto losses on your taxes now though if it does stay down. Im assuming you're Canadian so theres no $3000 cap like in the states.

 

Also if you trade crypto short term you're taxed as a day trader, that's always fun. 

 

 

Target entry was 51, but I removed it when I saw it going down.

[Neeranam]

50 minutes ago, dj230 said:

I just saw this post while looking at some past ones, so you lost 50% on your capital, but was given 12% APR on it? Since your money is "restaked" now you're making 12% on your 50% loss, so you're getting 6% on your initial capital and lost 50%. Not only that but assuming you kept all your interest in the account to restake, all your interest has lost it's value as well. 

 

On top of that this is all taxed, doesn't sound like great rewards to me 

 

It's funny, it sure sounds like staking is just institutions putting a short bet on the crypto. 

No. I bought my Polkadot at $4-5. It rose to $50 and is now $17. 

I took profits from  $30-48. 

[Neeranam]

2 hours ago, 2009 said:

It could just as easily lose 80% of its value and take 3 years to recover.

 

That's typically the way crypto goes.

 

Wonder how OP will feel then? And if he'll hold?

 

He'd be sitting with like 40 grand, down from 200, feeling pretty stupid for a few years.

I assume you got those number based on what the market did during the last bear cycle. This will not happen again due to the institutional money now in. 

 

The market dropped 80% from the blow off top high.  It is highly unlikely the price could drop 80% from here, a lot more likely to x4 to 150k. 

 

I experienced the last 3 year bear market and never felt stupid but a little depressed, but it was well worth the wait. If you are looking to make a fast buck with no volatility, you are in the wrong thread. If you are here just to criticize the OP, I wonder what your motive really is. 

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, Pravda said:

 

First of all I sold half for a small profit.

 

I'm now down about $5000 including the fees.

 

I'm waiting for another entry point.

IMHO, a great entry point is anything under $37.1k.  It wouldn't be a bad idea to DCA in now. 

[dj230]

41 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

No. I bought my Polkadot at $4-5. It rose to $50 and is now $17. 

I took profits from  $30-48. 

That doesn't sound like what you said at all, you said you staked it a year ago, it got restaked automatically and you wanted to sell but didn't. Now you're still staking it to rent a property, doesn't sound like you sold at all. 

 

A year ago it was at $39, now its at $17, that's a -56% loss, but a 12% APR, since it's restaked automatically, your APR would be adjusted to the new value of the cypto, i.e now it's 12% APR on a -56% loss from your original capital. 

 

On 2/16/2022 at 3:35 PM, Neeranam said:

I've had Polkadot in a US bank(Kraken) for a year and been earning 12% Apr on it.

It is automatically restaked.

I've recently decided to use my interest to prent a 4 bedroomed pool villa in Hua Hin. I'd planned to sell it to buy a house but really makes no sense to sell a prime asset, when getting such great rewards.

 

 

Staking was always interesting to me but I didn't use any time researching it too heavily, seemed like a short bet on crypto by institutions. They "borrow" your crypto, return it to you at a later date, give you interest. If the crypto goes down, institutions profit, and vice versa. 

 

Block Fi just got fined by the SEC since they were allowing staking which was illegal, Coinbase was told they weren't allowed to go through with their staking service either.

Interesting how Gary Gensler, SEC chair, big proponent of blockchain tech (teaching courses at MIT on it), is even telling people to be skeptical about companies promising high interest rate returns on crypto. 

 

If an institution is lending your crypto out, does that not just create an artificial quantity of crypto available, funny how crypto is said to be finite in amount. 

 

 

56 minutes ago, Pravda said:

 

 

Target entry was 51, but I removed it when I saw it going down.

Wouldn't you still be down roughly $7000? (bought at $200k at $56k, sold $100k at $56k, now at $49k, albeit making a small profit on the $100k sell), loss being roughly 6-7% at this point, still not much of a loss in a volatile asset like crypto. 

Edited February 20, 2022 by dj230

[Pravda]

24 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

No. I bought my Polkadot at $4-5. It rose to $50 and is now $17. 

I took profits from  $30-48. 

So, the question is are you buying back some dot at these prices?

[2009]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

I assume you got those number based on what the market did during the last bear cycle. This will not happen again due to the institutional money now in. 

 

The market dropped 80% from the blow off top high.  It is highly unlikely the price could drop 80% from here, a lot more likely to x4 to 150k. 

 

I experienced the last 3 year bear market and never felt stupid but a little depressed, but it was well worth the wait. If you are looking to make a fast buck with no volatility, you are in the wrong thread. If you are here just to criticize the OP, I wonder what your motive really is. 

Just participating in the discussion. 

 

It doesn't have to be a circle jerk for how good crypto is.

 

I dabbled in crypto, still hold some ETH. I bought around the last quarter of 2017.

 

ETH is up about 800% from then til today. But my fav stock (that I sold to buy ETH, dumbly) is up around 1400% in the same timeframe. Profitable company, real investment, less risk and less volatility. No crappy long periods of doing nothing, like crypto did for about 3 years. Likely to have a bright future, unlike most crypto.

 

You think the institutions will hold crypto up? They'll dump it and leave the average numpty holding their bags.

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, Pravda said:

So, the question is are you buying back some dot at these prices?

No, I'm buying Solana and EGLD as I get more for staking it.

 

[lkn]

34 minutes ago, 2009 said:

You think the institutions will hold crypto up? They'll dump it and leave the average numpty holding their bags.

Haha… what OP still doesn’t seem to understand is that to keep prices up, we need constant inflow of new money which is larger than the outflow, and mining alone is a huge drain on the system, although many U.S. miners are actually holding their coins and building up debt to finance their operations, instead of selling their coins, but as it gets more expensive to borrow, or as the risk is just too high (having that much debt on your balance sheet), they will be forced to sell.

 

Also, who are all these institutional investors? I think it’s just Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, and maybe Jack Dorsey. I would be pretty scared if retirement funds are buying into crypto, because then we are definitely headed toward another global financial crisis, though latest reports from IMF says we are not yet where crypto is posing a systemic risk, although we are getting closer, especially in developing economies (but that is mainly from retail investor activity, i.e. mortgaging your farm to invest in Axie Infinity).

 

And one thing that indicates “real” investors do not like crypto: Coinbase is trading at a P/E below 20, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is trading at a discount of about 27% compared to their NAV.

[lkn]

2 hours ago, dj230 said:

That doesn't sound like what you said at all, you said you staked it a year ago, it got restaked automatically and you wanted to sell but didn't. Now you're still staking it to rent a property, doesn't sound like you sold at all. 

I have OP on ignore, but before that, he was all over the place. Pumping EGLD at $250 or so, and then boasting when it hit $300-400, but a month later when it was down to $135: Oh… he had already taken profit long ago, yet it was still a great investment…

 

Anyway, OP probably arrived at his returns by assuming the USD had 15% yearly inflation over the last decade, which he can prove to you, if only you will watch fifteen minutes of ramblings from one of his idols…

Edited February 20, 2022 by lkn

[Pravda]

6 minutes ago, lkn said:

I have OP on ignore, but before that, he was all over the place. Pumping EGLD at $250 or so, and then boasting when it hit $300-400, but a month later when it was down to $135: Oh… he had already taken profit long ago, yet it was still a great investment…

 

 

 

What?

[OneZero]

If your comments were directed at neerenam, he is not the op. 

Pravda is the op.

[fdsa]

57 minutes ago, lkn said:

I have OP on ignore, but before that, he was all over the place. Pumping EGLD at $250 or so, and then boasting when it hit $300-400, but a month later when it was down to $135: Oh… he had already taken profit long ago, yet it was still a great investment…

 

Anyway, OP probably arrived at his returns by assuming the USD had 15% yearly inflation over the last decade, which he can prove to you, if only you will watch fifteen minutes of ramblings from one of his idols…

all what Neeranam does is promotes his cr***to.com debit card. He put me on ignore list after I quoted his message "I've never bought Bitcoin" after he said that he's bought Bitcoin :D

[Neeranam]

44 minutes ago, OneZero said:

If your comments were directed at neerenam, he is not the op. 

Pravda is the op.

He is thinking of the other thread about Warren buffet, which he is very active in!

[dj230]

1 hour ago, lkn said:

I have OP on ignore, but before that, he was all over the place. Pumping EGLD at $250 or so, and then boasting when it hit $300-400, but a month later when it was down to $135: Oh… he had already taken profit long ago, yet it was still a great investment…

 

Anyway, OP probably arrived at his returns by assuming the USD had 15% yearly inflation over the last decade, which he can prove to you, if only you will watch fifteen minutes of ramblings from one of his idols…

Ah, the typical economist/analyst trick, once an investment goes south  "oh yea but I sold it already at the top" 

 

It's shocking to pump something on a Thailand forum, I wouldn't be surprised if he was just bag holding, hoping he will be right someday, I've seen it happen to quite a lot of people the past few years. Once the stock market got hot and penny stocks were flying 100-1000% in one day a few friends got lucky a few times, but eventually they lost all their money, still bag holding to this day down 80-90% on their account. I don't see crypto ending too differently, QE is ending soon, what liquidity will people have both retail and institution, to push crypto up. If interest rates rise, which they will, institutions have even less liquidity. Anything like crypto or speculation stocks will get no money coming in. 

 

haha why did he ask you to watch a sales pitch video?

Edited February 20, 2022 by dj230

[lkn]

1 hour ago, Pravda said:

What?

Sorry, @OneZero is right that I meant Neeranam. He is the OP in most crypto threads, but not this one ????

[Masterton]

I find it quite telling that some posters babble on about how OP is $7000 down or whatever. How is he down? He bought X amount of BTC and he still has X amount of BTC. He hasn't lost anything. Gains and losses in fiat currency terms are only realized when the asset is converted into such, ie they are sold for CAD or USD or whatever. OP will do just fine, all he has to do is sit back and wait, the price of BTC will certainly rise as surely as it has dropped. That is the nature of the beast. Nothing foolish about buying the dip...

[steven100]

[dj230]

4 hours ago, Masterton said:

I find it quite telling that some posters babble on about how OP is $7000 down or whatever. How is he down? He bought X amount of BTC and he still has X amount of BTC. He hasn't lost anything. Gains and losses in fiat currency terms are only realized when the asset is converted into such, ie they are sold for CAD or USD or whatever. OP will do just fine, all he has to do is sit back and wait, the price of BTC will certainly rise as surely as it has dropped. That is the nature of the beast. Nothing foolish about buying the dip...

This is the exact same thing people say with pump and dump stocks haha where do you think FUD and HODL came from. 
 

albiet in this case I do think the OP has a good chance of breaking even just because the sell off was due to a false narrative. Since it still needs to trap bag holders to keep the ponzi going it has to “bounce” on the way down. But I doubt usd/btc will break $55k again 

 

If usd/btc hits $33k again though, the OP probably won’t break even. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by dj230

[happydreamer]

A few weeks before I took my first payout in 2017. Shoulda HODL'd. 

[Longwood50]

On 2/20/2022 at 11:55 AM, happydreamer said:

Good explanation.  And people buying stocks on projected earnings for a company?  Speculation too?

I guess we can get into semantics.  Speculation versus forecasting.  With a commodity it is purely a buyer willing to pay more for a fixed product.  A barrel of oil is a barrel of oil.  Its price goes up and down strictly based on demand for the product and its supply.  The oil does not "improve" its worth. Contrast that to a share of stock in a company  take Amazon for instance. The number of shares outstanding are constant so each share is a fractional ownership of the company and its earnings.  The company "increases" in value with something tangible.  "increased earnings" not just speculation.  Certainly an element of "speculation" plays into it as investors forecast future earnings growth but the valuation unlike a commodity is not strictly based on an asset such as bitcoin, oil, or soybeans that remains unchanged with nothing tangible to warrant a rising price other than speculation. 

 

 

 

• Amazon EPS for the twelve months ending September 30, 2021 was $51.18, a 49.87% increase year-over-year.
• Amazon 2020 annual EPS was $41.83, a 81.79% increase from 2019.
• Amazon 2019 annual EPS was $23.01, a 14.25% increase from 2018.
• Amazon 2018 annual EPS was $20.14, a 227.48% increase from 2017.

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Longwood50

[lkn]

13 hours ago, Masterton said:

I find it quite telling that some posters babble on about how OP is $7000 down or whatever. How is he down? He bought X amount of BTC and he still has X amount of BTC. He hasn't lost anything

In all fairness, OP bought BTC with the sole purpose of selling at a profit and then started a thread about it, so he has basically invited people to track and comment on his gain/loss using the current market value of his “investment”.

[Pravda]

I am deep in the hole and got nobody to blame but myself.

 

It suddenly became a long term HODL!

[Adumbration]

Progress update:

 

investment: 200K

 

Fees on purchase: 1K (@Pravda to confirm actual cost)

 

Investment: 199K @ 55K6 per coin

 

199/55.6 = 3.579 coins

 

Today's price: 47K8

 

47.8 x 3.579 = 171K

 

Current loss:  200K - 171K = 29,000 CAD 

 

That is 3.5 times what I paid for the house I am currently sitting in. Including the life usufruct I have stamped on the back of the chanote.  I am also registered with immigration as the possessor.  So both the TM28 and the TM30 are in my name. 

 

@PravdaPM me and I will run you through how to use trailing stop losses.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Adumbration

[Cleareye]

Why not gold then? At least it's a store of value.