World Bank lowers Thai GDP growth prediction to 2.9% this year as Russia-Ukraine war takes toll

[webfact]

 

By Panithan Onthaworn

 

Thailand’s Covid-battered economy is projected to grow 2.9 per cent in 2022, down from the earlier prediction of nearly 4 per cent in December, as the Russia-Ukraine war and its fallout lower domestic spending, according to the latest World Bank study.

 

The war in Ukraine undermines the uneven recovery of developing East Asian and Pacific (EAP) countries from the Covid-19 downturn, World Bank said. It observed that countries that are significant fuel importers, such as Mongolia and Thailand, are witnessing a decline in real income.

 

Keep up to date with all things Thailand - Join our daily ASEAN NOW Thailand Newsletter - Click to subscribe

 

“As the economies of East Asia and the Pacific were recovering from the pandemic-induced shock, the war in Ukraine is weighing on growth momentum,” said Manuela V. Ferro, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/39181/world-bank-lowers-thai-gdp-growth-prediction-to-2-9-this-year-as-russia-ukraine-war-takes-toll/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-04-05

 

- Aetna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[petermik]

Won`t affect the "teflon" baht though...it will still stay strong

[Isaan sailor]

Thailand thinks their swiftly rising Baht will help the economy.  Yes, but not Thailand’s economy.

[ikke1959]

More good news for the THB.. It is getting more expensive already...Nothing can harm the THB al news is good news.. Look at the mass tourism of last Sunday at the airport( according to TAT)....and they claim there is no manipulation

[trainman34014]

But wait..........three Trillion Tourists have started arriving for Songkran to be followed by another three Trillion rich Indians.....just ask TAT !

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s Covid-battered economy is projected to grow 2.9 per cent in 2022, down from the earlier prediction of nearly 4 per cent in December, as the Russia-Ukraine war and its fallout lower domestic spending, according to the latest World Bank study.

And still falling...

[Cake Monster]

37 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

More good news for the THB.. It is getting more expensive already...Nothing can harm the THB al news is good news.. Look at the mass tourism of last Sunday at the airport( according to TAT)....and they claim there is no manipulation

And of course the 128 Billion of Capital Outflows since the start of the Year, and the downgrading of some of the Banks will have Zero influence on the baht.

[Sir Dude]

Maybe it's just me being cynical, but the way the baht has behaved for the last couple of years, then it smells badly of being manipulated... not in the traditional way of making it lower so as to benefit exports or tourism etc., but in the opposite way, to keep it artificially high to benefit a small dynamic of the elite. The Bank of Thailand is probably aggressively buying up as much baht as possible on the quiet and will do so until it's ordered to stop by some individual or small group of such folk right at the top.  

This section would primarily be those shifting money ashore to foreign accounts, those on acquisition sprees (CP etc. who have been busy on this for a while), buying imports needed for the men in green, attempting to fleece the tourists that do come (along with expats too) and so on... oh, and of course, for certain powerful individuals that reside outside of Thailand but generate their wealth mostly here as it suits their MO and location (get more bang for the buck when abroad).

We might see a change in the baht value when this elite group has finished gorging itself on its affairs overseas and wish to then bring it all back to Thailand so that they can become even richer and more powerful (rinse and repeat)... or we see another total collapse, but this has been predicted for a long time now and has thus far failed to materialize, despite the tsunami of bad news that would have taken out most places to a considerably higher degree.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, Sir Dude said:

Maybe it's just me being cynical, but the way the baht has behaved for the last couple of years, then it smells badly of being manipulated... not in the traditional way of making it lower so as to benefit exports or tourism etc., but in the opposite way, to keep it artificially high to benefit a small dynamic of the elite. The Bank of Thailand is probably aggressively buying up as much baht as possible on the quiet and will do so until it's ordered to stop by some individual or small group of such folk right at the top.  

This section would primarily be those shifting money ashore to foreign accounts, those on acquisition sprees (CP etc. who have been busy on this for a while), buying imports needed for the men in green, attempting to fleece the tourists that do come (along with expats too) and so on... oh, and of course, for certain powerful individuals that reside outside of Thailand but generate their wealth mostly here as it suits their MO and location (get more bang for the buck when abroad).

We might see a change in the baht value when this elite group has finished gorging itself on its affairs overseas and wish to then bring it all back to Thailand so that they can become even richer and more powerful (rinse and repeat)... or we see another total collapse, but this has been predicted for a long time now and has thus far failed to materialize, despite the tsunami of bad news that would have taken out most places to a considerably higher degree.

Does BoT aggressively buy up Baht, or aggressively sell USD reserves, in order to jack up the Baht?

[Sir Dude]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Does BoT aggressively buy up Baht, or aggressively sell USD reserves, in order to jack up the Baht?

That is indeed an interesting point to speculate upon regarding whether this government (having now been in for like 8 years) has been dipping-in to the currency reserves to finance/support projects or help the public with these political giveaways during Covid etc., or as you say, selling foreign currency to support the baht/buying up baht generally. However, I guess very few are privy to the real balance sheets on stuff like that as it would cause the markets to panic if their so-called high reserves were not quite as high as they claim. Also, I'm pretty sure that whatever the truth is, we are not being told it and the slight-of-hand/misdirection is strong here. Can't hide the truth forever though, it will eventually out somehow.

[RichardColeman]

15 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

However, I guess very few are privy to the real balance sheets on stuff like that as it would cause the markets to panic if their so-called high reserves were not quite as high as they claim. Also, I'm pretty sure that whatever the truth is, we are not being told it and the slight-of-hand/misdirection is strong here. Can't hide the truth forever though, it will eventually out somehow.

My own view is that the Generals are spending like crazy, using up the reserves, lining their pockets and when a 'real' democratic government gets in the money will all be gone causing economy problems and crash, and then cue another coup to 'put the situation right again' and repeat wallet lining

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thailand thinks their swiftly rising Baht will help the economy.  Yes, but not Thailand’s economy.

Swiftly rising? I just took a look and v USD it is about where it was 5 years ago. It has lost value so far this year!

[JimHuaHin]

2.9%, seems a little high.  Maybe they meant 0.9% or -2.9%.