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What currencies are best protected against inflation?


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2 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Would gold be an option or art?

Yeah looks like you can buy gold with storage included and they don't treat it as a financial product so you don't have the same regulatory issues. You do obviously have to think about the storage costs and what happens when the time comes to sell. Art is an interesting one. There is US platform I found a couple of days ago but the name of it won't come back to me just now. You can't get out though. They buy stuff and when they decide to sell it they give you your cut. If you are a US resident there is a limited secondary market, but I'm not.

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2 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

there is always a tax residency, but you have to declare it ????

That isn't correct unfortunately. I don't meet the tax residency criteria for any of the countries I have been in so currently have no tax residency.

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1 minute ago, GrandPapillon said:

there is always a tax residency, but you have to declare it ????

 

I'm sorry but my limited understanding  is that you need an address and proof of residency to open a share trading  account. This is why, having lived  abroad in many countries,  I have kept my UK resident  status and address. My friends and colleagues  who thought they were  being smart by becoming  non resident really  made a rod for their own back.

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2 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

I'm sorry but my limited understanding  is that you need an address and proof of residency to open a share trading  account.

I don't actually have a practical problem opening an account, I would just have to lie to do it. Who knows what would happen then. There is a common reporting standard under which the country in which you say you are tax resident gets info about your holdings in other countries. What does HMRC do if it gets a report like that for someone who is showing on their system as non-resident? What does the broker do if they are told that you are not in fact tax resident where you said you were. I don't know but there is the potential for it all to get extremely complicated.

 

It would have cost me quite a bit to ensure that I retained my UK tax resident status. There are definitely downsides to not having a tax home anywhere but it can work out for the best overall. Just depends on your individual circumstances.

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45 minutes ago, dcollins said:

I don't actually have a practical problem opening an account, I would just have to lie to do it. Who knows what would happen then. There is a common reporting standard under which the country in which you say you are tax resident gets info about your holdings in other countries. What does HMRC do if it gets a report like that for someone who is showing on their system as non-resident? What does the broker do if they are told that you are not in fact tax resident where you said you were. I don't know but there is the potential for it all to get extremely complicated.

 

It would have cost me quite a bit to ensure that I retained my UK tax resident status. There are definitely downsides to not having a tax home anywhere but it can work out for the best overall. Just depends on your individual circumstances.

Most people would consider LYING -in these circumstances to be COMMITING FRAUD and therefore a practical problem!!!

It's like someone  saying:  'I have no  problem  getting a new car but I have to  steal it.'

Good luck with your endeavours

Edited by The Hammer2021
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1 hour ago, dcollins said:

It looks like you can buy it with storage included e.g. in Zurich. Obviously you have to trust the seller and factor in storage costs. I guess there might be some kind of exit charge too. On the silver, it looks like the ratio is a little above the average for the last 25 years - so yes I guess it might return to the super long-term trend at some point, but I don't see any particular reason to think that will happen in the next couple of decades.

How about the Dow dropping to 5,500? Housing prices dropping 70%? A major world depression? 

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I don't have a lot of choice in the matter but my pensions are primarily in CHF so lucky lucky me

BUT yes this is definitely a "safe haven" - the Swiss national Bank spend billions every year to keep the currency value DOWN and apart from one disastrous period when the CHF was tied to the Euro which promptly collapsed (2000 it think it was) it has held its' value steadily.

 

I read somewhere in 1900 there were 25 francs to the dollar, now a franc costs USD1.05. And anecdotal evidence, Swiss coins can be fifty years old or more - because they are still worth something 

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10 hours ago, Stocky said:

???? I bought gold at USD600 in 1980, it promptly fell and didn't see 600 again for 27 years. 

Right. That 29k is a comparatively recent development.

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Precious metals are for the long term. Note: We are (once more) in a "sell-everything" mode, including your kitchen sink. Like in the last 3 Stock-Bear-Markets, even Gold was/is  being sold off. Gold as a portfolio "hedge" does not work in the short/mid-term.

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5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Silver is an infinitely better bet than gold right now. But the primary issues are that it is nearly impossible to buy here, in any desirable form, it takes up alot of space, and there is a $5 plus premium on bullion in the US right now, due to high demand. I still think it is a good bet, if you are able to order it, and store it.

 

Silver is historically (very long term) at a 1 to 15 ratio to gold. It is now at a small fraction of that. 

 

The gold silver ratio represents the number of silver ounces it takes to buy a single ounce of gold. Historically speaking, the gold silver ratio has rested somewhere between 15 and 10 to 1, reflecting the average supply of each metal. There were times throughout the history of money where the ratio was even lower — China once had a 4 to 1 ratio and the ancient Egyptians even had a 1 to 1 ratio at one point.

 

https://www.longtermtrends.net/gold-silver-ratio/

As I write, 1 oz of Gold sells for  $ 1846

                 1 0z of Silver sells for $ 21.02     What Ratio makes that?

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3 hours ago, Stocky said:

 

I still hold the gold I bought in 1980.

My point was that gold can go down as well as up. 

 

1580177016_2022-05-1215_15_56-GoldPrices-100YearHistoricalChart_MacroTrends-Brave.jpg.d72dd164b2c53e867af1315fdbeef5fd.jpg

Not only that. Gold tends to anticipate future "follies" by central banks. Spurting ahead, having anticipated the "follies". And then consolidating for 20 years and going nowhere. (see chart above). This too can happen.

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2 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

USA Dollar?

Swiss  Franc

The CHF has lost 8% against the US$ within the last 6 weeks. Under "normal circumstances" the CHF is a "safe heaven". But now, there is Canon-Thunder in the air. So the US$ is champion again. Why? Even in Zimbabwe you can buy something with US$. Not with CHF, as they don't know what a CHF is.

 

Also the yield difference between 10 year governement bonds is nearly 2% in favour of the US$. Not helping the CHF. Not now and not in the near future.

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3 hours ago, dcollins said:

Yes that's the problem I'm trying to solve / mitigate here. The trouble is I only have access to currencies or maybe precious metals.

£ as your "home currency"?. Wanting to stay with currencies only? Then buy with your £ US$ and CHF in equal amounts.

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1 hour ago, nglodnig said:

I don't have a lot of choice in the matter but my pensions are primarily in CHF so lucky lucky me

BUT yes this is definitely a "safe haven" - the Swiss national Bank spend billions every year to keep the currency value DOWN and apart from one disastrous period when the CHF was tied to the Euro which promptly collapsed (2000 it think it was) it has held its' value steadily.

 

I read somewhere in 1900 there were 25 francs to the dollar, now a franc costs USD1.05. And anecdotal evidence, Swiss coins can be fifty years old or more - because they are still worth something 

Back then, Silver Coins contained some Silver. Not anymore.

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6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Silver is an infinitely better bet than gold right now. But the primary issues are that it is nearly impossible to buy here, in any desirable form, it takes up alot of space, and there is a $5 plus premium on bullion in the US right now, due to high demand. I still think it is a good bet, if you are able to order it, and store it.

 

Silver is historically (very long term) at a 1 to 15 ratio to gold. It is now at a small fraction of that. 

 

The gold silver ratio represents the number of silver ounces it takes to buy a single ounce of gold. Historically speaking, the gold silver ratio has rested somewhere between 15 and 10 to 1, reflecting the average supply of each metal. There were times throughout the history of money where the ratio was even lower — China once had a 4 to 1 ratio and the ancient Egyptians even had a 1 to 1 ratio at one point.

 

https://www.longtermtrends.net/gold-silver-ratio/

I can buy silver in the Australian market quite easily, and have done so.

Storage is unnecessary, the company I buy it from has a "pool allocated" system which means I am buying a share of silver, which I can convert into physical silver at any point.

A $5 premium is daylight robbery, the buy sell spread I get is about AUD 0.60

You're right about the price ratio, presently 75:1.

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7 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I can buy silver in the Australian market quite easily, and have done so.

Storage is unnecessary, the company I buy it from has a "pool allocated" system which means I am buying a share of silver, which I can convert into physical silver at any point.

A $5 premium is daylight robbery, the buy sell spread I get is about AUD 0.60

You're right about the price ratio, presently 75:1.

Where dp u buy it

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6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Silver is an infinitely better bet than gold right now. But the primary issues are that it is nearly impossible to buy here, in any desirable form, it takes up alot of space, and there is a $5 plus premium on bullion in the US right now, due to high demand. I still think it is a good bet, if you are able to order it, and store it.

 

Silver is historically (very long term) at a 1 to 15 ratio to gold. It is now at a small fraction of that. 

 

The gold silver ratio represents the number of silver ounces it takes to buy a single ounce of gold. Historically speaking, the gold silver ratio has rested somewhere between 15 and 10 to 1, reflecting the average supply of each metal. There were times throughout the history of money where the ratio was even lower — China once had a 4 to 1 ratio and the ancient Egyptians even had a 1 to 1 ratio at one point.

 

https://www.longtermtrends.net/gold-silver-ratio/

Silver is mostly a by-product of Copper-Mining. Copper will be in great demand in future years. Not really so in the case of Silver as the usage of Silver (as an Industrial-Metal) is on the decline.

 

Longer term bets should favour Copper over Silver. Having some Gold as an "innocent bystander" in a portfolio.

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11 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Gold was $800 40 years ago

Rats! Gold has only compensated for inflation over 40 years. No"excess" bonus. This is probably why Warren Buffet never invested in Gold.

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