Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[Gweiloman]

14 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

I agree with you.  There are multiple reasons for worldwide inflation, including rising prices in Thailand. Supply chain issues caused by the pandemic created shortages which resulted in steep rises in the commodity markets.  The invasion of Ukraine which interrupted grain and fertilizer shipments also caused more  shortages and inflation.  There were already shortages before sanctions by the West.  They only created more shortages.  Simply put, there is no one single cause for this inflation.

Caveat:  Never argue with people that are always right even when they are wrong.

Caveat:  Never argue with people that are always right even when they are wrong.
Thanks for the advice.

[owl sees all]

On 9/9/2022 at 8:53 AM, lujanit said:

I know someone who put one million Baht into a Long Term Fund with a major bank here.  In a few months it was worth 60,000 baht less.  Of course the fund invested heavily in the Chinese property market.  The money was promptly withdrawn.  This was before the ills of Evergrande and company was fully known.  Now it would be nearly worthless.

Should have bought gold.

[Hawaiian]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

So the soaring prices are all because of the sanctions and have nothing to do with the 2 plus years the global economy has been suffering due to the pandemic and supply chain issues?  Your again believing your own propaganda.  Prices in Thailand are rising not because of the sanctions on Russia or China or N. Korea, prices here are rising just like all around the world.  Food prices here are increasing because there are more costs associated with growing crops and also because of the weather changes.  The real-estate market here is also continuing to bang-on with more and more building as Thailand believes folks will come and buy it.  Look at the new LTR Visa class and you can see how they are hoping it lifts the economy here.  The USD to Thb has nothing to do with anything except the fact that the US is doing something about inflation or trying to by raising interest rates, while in Thailand the BOT is scared to do the same.  The issues are global and not just because of one country as you seem to believe.  Never said I supported the Orange one or the current one in the WH.  You seem to believe in conspiracy theories of which I base my views on reality and view all news sources giving each one a middle of the road view which I verify looking elsewhere as well.  You want to believe one side it appears.  Be my guest, I however will stay in the middle area which I call the Gray Area and watch as China creates more anger amongst is people and Russia does the same.  Thailand has already turned the country backwards 20 years in my view.

This is a rational explanation of the inflation issue:  https://www.profolus.com/topics/causes-of-the-2021-2022-global-inflation-surge/?utm

Edited September 23, 2022 by Hawaiian
spelling error

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

Should have bought gold.

Should have bought USD!

[placnx]

1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

Should have bought gold.

For many years gold has not been a good investment. Lately it performed opposite of what is expected. When inflation arrived it should have gone up, but the propect of rising interest rates interfered.

[Hawaiian]

10 minutes ago, placnx said:

For many years gold has not been a good investment. Lately it performed opposite of what is expected. When inflation arrived it should have gone up, but the propect of rising interest rates interfered.

I bought high end gold coins five years ago.  Most of them are up 75 to 100% and will continue to appreciate no matter what gold does because they are collectors items.

[Hawaiian]

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Caveat:  Never argue with people that are always right even when they are wrong.
Thanks for the advice.

Caveat: Only speak when spoken to.

[Gweiloman]

20 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Caveat: Only speak when spoken to.

Classic example of self righteous attitude. Laughable, coming from someone from a morally bankrupt nation.

[ThailandRyan]

20 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Classic example of self righteous attitude. Laughable, coming from someone from a morally bankrupt nation.

Morally Bankrupt, really. That could be said for many places. Spouting rhetoric again to make yourself seem smarter than others......not nice.

[Mac Mickmanus]

22 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Classic example of self righteous attitude. Laughable, coming from someone from a morally bankrupt nation.

With China exploiting Africa and buying up poor Countries with corrupt loans to corrupt leaders and keeping the land when the loan is defaulted and Chinese depleting the oceans , need to look at China about moral bankruptcy 

[Gweiloman]

11 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

With China exploiting Africa and buying up poor Countries with corrupt loans to corrupt leaders and keeping the land when the loan is defaulted and Chinese depleting the oceans , need to look at China about moral bankruptcy 

Ah, the fully debunked debt trap diplomacy myth. It’s not like the west didn’t exploit these countries and most of SEA and India. . You need to brush up on your history. 

[metisdead]

Some inflammatory posts and replies have been removed.

[Gweiloman]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Morally Bankrupt, really. That could be said for many places. Spouting rhetoric again to make yourself seem smarter than others......not nice.

Spouting rhetoric again to make yourself seem smarter than others

 

I don’t even understand that.. Obviously, I’m not as smart as others.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Ah, the fully debunked debt trap diplomacy myth. It’s not like the west didn’t exploit these countries and most of SEA and India. . You need to brush up on your history. 

Ah, so because the west exploited them in an age when such was the norm, it's OK for China to do so now?

[placnx]

18 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Ah, the fully debunked debt trap diplomacy myth. It’s not like the west didn’t exploit these countries and most of SEA and India. . You need to brush up on your history. 

Now we are in the 21st Century (but unfortunately have to live with the United Nations created in the last millenium). What some countries did in those previous centuries is no longer appropriate behaviour, i.e. slavery, wars of agression, bribery of foreign officials, and debt trap diplomacy. I wish that whataboutism would be outlawed on this forum. 

[Gweiloman]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Ah, so because the west exploited them in an age when such was the norm, it's OK for China to do so now?

 

3 hours ago, placnx said:

Now we are in the 21st Century (but unfortunately have to live with the United Nations created in the last millenium). What some countries did in those previous centuries is no longer appropriate behaviour, i.e. slavery, wars of agression, bribery of foreign officials, and debt trap diplomacy. I wish that whataboutism would be outlawed on this forum. 

I would love to respond to your posts but as it’s off topic, it would get deleted.

[Hawaiian]

On 9/23/2022 at 7:18 PM, placnx said:

Now we are in the 21st Century (but unfortunately have to live with the United Nations created in the last millenium). What some countries did in those previous centuries is no longer appropriate behaviour, i.e. slavery, wars of agression, bribery of foreign officials, and debt trap diplomacy. I wish that whataboutism would be outlawed on this forum. 

There are many online videos claiming that China has not engaged in debt trap diplomacy.  Call it anything you want, the fact remains that the roughly one trillion dollars China has loaned to debt strapped countries is causing serious economic problems not only for the borrowers, but also for the worlds biggest lender.

The Chinese economy is already suffering from the world largest real estate crisis and now defaulting loans are creating another crisis for Chinese banks.  The video "China Won't Rule the World" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw-NrqYdDT8  shows why China is most likely heading to a recession.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Hawaiian
Correct link

[LivingNThailand]

15 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

The video "China Won't Rule the World" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw-NrqYdDT8  shows why China is most likely heading to a recession.

Link doesn't work.   Do you have another.  I'd like to see it.

[SmartyMarty]

On 9/9/2022 at 10:16 AM, spidermike007 said:

The Thai economy is already in big trouble. This may only add to the woes. This could have been avoided. Covid was a factor, but a small one. Mismanagement, malfeasance, gross incompetence, fear, hesitancy and extreme cowardice were  far bigger factors in the decimation. All this, despite the numbers being pumped out and likely fabricated.

 

You want evidence of the economic slowdown? Look at the 1000's of billboards nationwide that have remained blank. That represents a fortune companies are unwilling to spend here. 

Billboards are an economic indicator? 555

[spidermike007]

7 minutes ago, SmartyMarty said:

Billboards are an economic indicator? 555

Yes. A huge one. They are very expensive to use, many are used by Japanese and multi national firms, and the 1000's of blank ones at this time are a major indication that something highly dysfunctional is happening with the local economy here. 

[Hawaiian]

6 hours ago, LivingNThailand said:

Link doesn't work.   Do you have another.  I'd like to see it.

Try this:

 

[placnx]

On 9/29/2022 at 4:33 PM, Hawaiian said:

There are many online videos claiming that China has not engaged in debt trap diplomacy.  Call it anything you want, the fact remains that the roughly one trillion dollars China has loaned to debt strapped countries is causing serious economic problems not only for the borrowers, but also for the worlds biggest lender.

The Chinese economy is already suffering from the world largest real estate crisis and now defaulting loans are creating another crisis for Chinese banks.  The video "China Won't Rule the World" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw-NrqYdDT8  shows why China is most likely heading to a recession.

Debt trap diplomacy has been a problem because China was charging near market rates while other big creditors charged low rates for development loans. The Chinese loan contracts typically contained clauses regarding confidentiality of terms and denying the borrower the possibility of renegotiating under the Paris Club arrangement with creditor nations or a similar setup for commercial loans through banks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Club  

Due to bad publicity the Chinese position seems to be softening.

 

The rise of the US dollar will make default on development loans more likely, especially since the rising cost of imports (many priced in dollars) will add strain to budgets and the balance of payments. 

 

The real estate issue in China is so big because real estate was one of the few (previously) productive places to invest domestically. The stock market is still more like a casino. Now the central government is leaving it up to local authorities to resolve the unfinished construction, but it's a good question how this will work since land sales by local authorities have dried up, but were previously around 30% of revenues. Also, there is a lot of unofficial debt incurred by local and provincial entities.

 

In the past, people had a $50,000 annual quota to obtain foreign exchange for use abroad. People would pool with relatives to buy real estate abroad, some in Thailand, no doubt. It's more difficult now with more questions about the purpose for sending cash abroad.

 

 

[Hawaiian]

On 9/22/2022 at 1:07 AM, Gweiloman said:

Joe Blogs, hmmm. Tried to goggle him, no results as to his resume and expertise. I do know that he titles his videos with cheap clickbaits such as Russia economy will be wiped out for 8 years or China heading for economic collapse. Strange that no real experts share his views.

No wonder you got no results.  "Tried to goggle him"  Hmmm.

[plus7]

On 9/9/2022 at 8:53 AM, lujanit said:

I know someone who put one million Baht into a Long Term Fund with a major bank here.  In a few months it was worth 60,000 baht less. 

6% up or down is a normal market fluctuation.

Why nobody talking about same crisis in the UK ?

Persimmon stocks, one of the oldest (back to 19 century) and biggest housebuilding company in UK down 58% since this year.  Others are not better.

Did you even know it? Probably not.