Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[Baron Samedi]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Next superpower...that's only if they succeed in taking Taiwan and then start WW III, Which will destroy all the advanced semiconductor chips and all hope of what you suggest.

 

Laughable your post is.

Ryan we ain't in a movie. Stop buying into those ridiculous WWIII narratives spread by medias. Those guys make their money selling fear. Journalism isn't what it used to be.

 

I myself doubt that China will become the next superpower. It's more likely gonna be one of several superpowers. It will also be the largest economy in the world by far.

[Kopitiam]

9 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

I think we all know the answer to that ????.

 

If America is so concerned, they should just offer citizenship to all Taiwanese. But of course they won’t. White supremacy and all that.

America knows Taiwanese are also Chinese.

[Misty]

15 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Nytimes, western media. Fake news, according to one DJT.

I've seen the surveillance in person. And no doubt you have too.

 

Text below from the article.  No wonder all the Chinese billionaires are fleeing to Singapore.

 

  https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/technology/china-surveillance.html

ZHENGZHOU, China — China is ramping up its ability to spy on its nearly 1.4 billion people to new and disturbing levels, giving the world a blueprint for how to build a digital totalitarian state.

Chinese authorities are knitting together old and state-of-the-art technologies — phone scanners, facial-recognition cameras, face and fingerprint databases and many others — into sweeping tools for authoritarian control, according to police and private databases examined by The New York Times.

Once combined and fully operational, the tools can help police grab the identities of people as they walk down the street, find out who they are meeting with and identify who does and doesn’t belong to the Communist Party.

 

 

[moogradod]

51 minutes ago, Baron Samedi said:

.................

 

I myself doubt that China will become the next superpower. It's more likely gonna be one of several superpowers. It will also be the largest economy in the world by far.

One of several superpowers ? I agree but then the biggest of them I suppose. Who is there to contend ? Russia ? Does not need much explanation to rule that out. USA ? I believe they are in deep decay. India ? Still would need a lot of more time. They will all become minor players.

 

And Taiwan is more "China" than Tibet used to be. Which did not prevent them from annexion. And Taiwan is as well just before their own doorsteps. They will invade it and the US can and will do nothing to prevent it. And if they would try, it would hit them hard. I believe they would not even try seriously. Maybe they would express their greatest regret and this would be it.

 

The whole "China masterplan" is a battle of ideologies much more than any other conflict there is today, Maybe with the exeption of the tensions between the Muslim and Western world. It is a "tradition" reaching many years back. Think Dschingis Khan.

[metisdead]

Some troll posts have been removed, an off topic post has been removed. 

[Adumbration]

On 9/9/2022 at 2:14 PM, Lacessit said:

No. Wars are usually started by leaders who wish to distract their population from internal issues.

I warned of this very issue in my thread started months ago discussing China's move on Taiwan.  I was ridiculed of course.

[Adumbration]

Anyway.  This property crash is just white noise.  The real threat to China is its rapidly declining population.  The population peaked in 2014 and is now is raped decline and the situation was amplified by the covid lockdowns.  Current predictions are that in just 20 years the working population will shrink by 250 million, or about a third of the currently 750 billion workforce.  Add to that the rapidly aging population and China is screwed.  It is a mathmatical certainty.

[Baron Samedi]

1 hour ago, moogradod said:

One of several superpowers ? I agree but then the biggest of them I suppose. Who is there to contend ? Russia ? Does not need much explanation to rule that out. USA ? I believe they are in deep decay. India ? Still would need a lot of more time. They will all become minor players.

 

And Taiwan is more "China" than Tibet used to be. Which did not prevent them from annexion. And Taiwan is as well just before their own doorsteps. They will invade it and the US can and will do nothing to prevent it. And if they would try, it would hit them hard. I believe they would not even try seriously. Maybe they would express their greatest regret and this would be it.

 

The whole "China masterplan" is a battle of ideologies much more than any other conflict there is today, Maybe with the exeption of the tensions between the Muslim and Western world. It is a "tradition" reaching many years back. Think Dschingis Khan.

Economically China will be number 1 for sure. Militarily I'm not so sure. The US army is one hell of a war machine. Culturally the West has already won. India has an economy a fifth that of China and they won't catch up any time soon. Russia is a mystery to me: I don't understand these people ????

 

I agree with you. Taiwan will end up being Chinese at some point. I don't see how things could go any other way. The US won't do anything when it happens. But I believe the Chinese gov when it says it wants a peaceful integration. All their military drills is to make Americans understand that they have no place in the area; it is not a thread to Taiwanese.

 

3) I can't remember who said it but I agree with this. Showing your power in the 21th century will be to show that your system is able to bring prosperity to the many. People want security right now: it's a pretty clear trend.

[Gweiloman]

12 minutes ago, Baron Samedi said:

Economically China will be number 1 for sure. Militarily I'm not so sure. The US army is one hell of a war machine. Culturally the West has already won. India has an economy a fifth that of China and they won't catch up any time soon. Russia is a mystery to me: I don't understand these people ????

 

I agree with you. Taiwan will end up being Chinese at some point. I don't see how things could go any other way. The US won't do anything when it happens. But I believe the Chinese gov when it says it wants a peaceful integration. All their military drills is to make Americans understand that they have no place in the area; it is not a thread to Taiwanese.

 

3) I can't remember who said it but I agree with this. Showing your power in the 21th century will be to show that your system is able to bring prosperity to the many. People want security right now: it's a pretty clear trend.

In an extremely short space of time, China has alleviated 800 million people out of poverty. What a lot of posters on this thread don’t realise (primarily because of their culture) is that China is not interested in expansion of any sort. They are merely interested in growing more prosperous, both as a nation and as individuals.

 

As to surveillance and all that jazz, the average Chinese citizen can’t be bothered. Personal liberty is a western concept and plays little to no relevance to most Asians. ID cards are mandatory in a lot of Asian countries but hardly exists in the west.

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

Exactly. Don't buy overvalued stocks.

It's not that simple. Just look at the current volatility in the US markets. Some continue to buy the dip, even discredited meme stocks. Others are happy to use these rallies to prune their portfolios. As for China, there have been major busts in the last decade, but that did not get attantion from the general public abroad since only foreign institutions have access.

[Baron Samedi]

11 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

In an extremely short space of time, China has alleviated 800 million people out of poverty. What a lot of posters on this thread don’t realise (primarily because of their culture) is that China is not interested in expansion of any sort. They are merely interested in growing more prosperous, both as a nation and as individuals.

 

As to surveillance and all that jazz, the average Chinese citizen can’t be bothered. Personal liberty is a western concept and plays little to no relevance to most Asians. ID cards are mandatory in a lot of Asian countries but hardly exists in the west.

I agree with everything you've written.

Some americans will have a hard time adjusting to a world in which they can't bully people to get what they want. But there is also a lot of people of good will in the US. Eventually the West and the East will come to understand each other. There is no other way really, so....

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Fine. Some women then. Still, not exactly freedom and equality is it?

For a long time, the local party apparatus would have Chinese women aborted if pregnant with a second child.

[Baron Samedi]

13 minutes ago, placnx said:

It's not that simple. Just look at the current volatility in the US markets. Some continue to buy the dip, even discredited meme stocks. Others are happy to use these rallies to prune their portfolios. As for China, there have been major busts in the last decade, but that did not get attantion from the general public abroad since only foreign institutions have access.

In the long run, it is that simple.

Know your fundamentals.

Know the trends propelling us into the future.

Buy good relevant companies at a discount.

Sell when euphoria is in da house.

Repeat.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Taiwan is a free and autonomous country, and is also known as the ROC.  You are aware that the war between the ROC and the PRC never has officially ended.  The ROC relinquished mainland china but still holds Taiwan and many other strategic islands.  Have you done your research to understand why Taiwan is such an important cog in China's master plan, and why the west, and not just the US will not let that happen. This OP is about the property market collapse threatening Thailand based upon an economic recession, and any attempt at taking Taiwan would create a global issue of immense proportions.  This OP is not about the indigenous Hawaiians or the Indians of America. The US was not the only country to have slaves, and the indians mistreatment started way before the US was born...try again.

The boosters for China in this thread evidently use a common tactic called "whataboutism".

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

I myself doubt that China will become the next superpower. It's more likely gonna be one of several superpowers. It will also be the largest economy in the world by far.

That economy claim is based on an historical trend continuing, but as brokers say, "past performance is not an indicator of future results".

 

China is more likely to remain a regional power for some time to come, and may decline thereafter.   

[BangkokReady]

On 9/9/2022 at 6:38 AM, ezzra said:

Maybe communism has run it's course and time to re-think different way of governing

 

On 9/9/2022 at 6:46 AM, 2baht said:

Seems to work ok in Vietnam. 

Neither Vietnam nor China are economically communist.  In order to prosper, both had to switch to a capitalist free-market economy.  The difference with Vietnam is that they are very much on the up, whereas China has plateaued somewhat.

 

It could be suggested that the "politically communist" thing could have also run its course, but, given China's awful human rights abuses and many other crimes which go unpunished, it's hard to make a case for it to have ever been valid there.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

America knows Taiwanese are also Chinese.

But people in Taiwan increasingly identify as Taiwanese. When Chiang Kai Shek occupied Taiwan, a lot of local people were unhappy and had to be suppressed.

 

Taiwan was only ruled by Chinese at the end of the Ming Dynasty (1644) and then again after Chiang's defeat. Only after his death could democratization take hold by degrees as the Kuomintang mentality recedes.

[placnx]

10 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

 

Neither Vietnam nor China are economically communist.  In order to prosper, both had to switch to a capitalist free-market economy.  The difference with Vietnam is that they are very much on the up, whereas China has plateaued somewhat.

Part of China's problem is Xi Jin Ping and his program to reassert CCP power. The biggest tech companies represent a potential threat to his power exercised through the CCP. His solution has been to clip their wings, and for other private companies to install party functionaries in their management. Vietnam is more laissez faire.

[Baron Samedi]

29 minutes ago, placnx said:

That economy claim is based on an historical trend continuing, but as brokers say, "past performance is not an indicator of future results".

 

China is more likely to remain a regional power for some time to come, and may decline thereafter.   

Well I guess we have different sources.

 

I believe there is still plenty of room for growth in China and I believe many Chinese tech stocks are undervalued. Those companies are growing domestically as well as internationally and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

As for China's future as a superpower, technology rules the world. Right now it's essentially China against the US (with the US still dominating I guess). There is no doubt that China will face demographic problems around 2040 but they also have plenty of room when it comes to optimizing their system (corruption, education, digitalization, etc..). The Koreans and the Japanese did it so why not the Chinese?

 

I guess we'll see what the future holds. But I'm pretty confident China will be just fine all things considered.

[Kopitiam]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

But people in Taiwan increasingly identify as Taiwanese. When Chiang Kai Shek occupied Taiwan, a lot of local people were unhappy and had to be suppressed.

 

Taiwan was only ruled by Chinese at the end of the Ming Dynasty (1644) and then again after Chiang's defeat. Only after his death could democratization take hold by degrees as the Kuomintang mentality recedes.

This is from wikipedia:  Han Chinese (95 to 97%) are the predominating population of Taiwan July 2022.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan

[Hawaiian]

3 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

Well I guess we have different sources.

 

I believe there is still plenty of room for growth in China and I believe many Chinese tech stocks are undervalued. Those companies are growing domestically as well as internationally and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

As for China's future as a superpower, technology rules the world. Right now it's essentially China against the US (with the US still dominating I guess). There is no doubt that China will face demographic problems around 2040 but they also have plenty of room when it comes to optimizing their system (corruption, education, digitalization, etc..). The Koreans and the Japanese did it so why not the Chinese?

 

I guess we'll see what the future holds. But I'm pretty confident China will be just fine all things considered.

If things are so rosy in China why are so many Chinese trying to flee the country.  Those that succeed tell a different story than yours.  I just met two well educated Chinese brothers, who spoke perfect English, tell me they have no desire to ever go back.

[Hawaiian]

8 hours ago, newnative said:

     Your abortion statement is incorrect.  The Supreme Court left it up to the individual states to decide how to handle abortion; Kansas voters recently voted to retain abortion rights.  Abortion is still legal in the majority of the states; it is likely to become illegal in 16 states, which would mean a woman in one of those states would have to travel out of state to get an abortion.

It's still legal in my state and that will not change anytime soon.

[Hawaiian]

8 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Pelosi said the riots in HKG were a beautiful thing to see. Did she say the same about Jan 6? Double standards, as the world has come to expect of the (Dis)United States.

Nancy Pelosi represents the Democratic Party that is determined to undermine democratic freedoms and constitutional rights in America.  And yes, she is a hypocrite.

[chacha boom]

14 hours ago, Misty said:

Please tell that to the Uighers, those under covid lock-down, women who until very recently wanted to have a second child. Or read the following article on how the Chinese government is spying on all of its citizens.

 

Sorry, Gwiloman, you're fooling no one. Hope they aren't paying you much to post this stuff.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/technology/china-surveillance.html

A Surveillance Net Blankets China’s Cities, Giving Police Vast Powers

The authorities can scan your phones, track your face and find out when you leave your home. One of the world’s biggest spying networks is aimed at regular people, and nobody can stop it.

Please tell that to the native Americans, the Afro-Americans now being locked down unjustly in private industrial-prison-complexes after a few hundred years of enslavement. 

 

Surveillance: NSA, CIA, Facebook/Meta, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Palantir, Clearview etc. etc.  This is a global problem, not just for Americans...

 

A new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that 19 of the 24 US government agencies surveyed are using facial recognition in some way, illustrating how commonplace the controversial technology has become within the federal government. The list of agencies includes agencies like the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that maintain in-house systems, alongside smaller agencies that use the system to control access to high-security locations.

[Hawaiian]

8 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Interesting why you think WW III will start. That will only happen if America decides to engage, being the warmonger that they are. Asia is not their backyard. China won’t care if America invades Cuba.

 

I wonder how the real Hawaiians feel about America occupying their country. Going back further, the native indigenous Indians of America, thousands of their women were raped too @walker88. Also thousands of black slaves who were kidnapped and traded like animals.

Real Hawaiians overwhelmingly voted for statehood.  Incidentally, the Hawaiians of old owned slaves.  King Kamehameha I used American advisers and American weapons to invade and conquer the islands he did not control.

Want to know how real Hawaiians feel?  My native Hawaiian relatives are proud Americans.  In fact one served as a U.S. senator.  Several are retired military veterans.

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, chacha boom said:

All Americans are hypocrites. It's your main heritage and common denominator. I suspect that goes for you too "Hawaiian"...

I assume you are an a person of outstanding , high moral character, unquestionable integrity, with no hint of personal prejudices and biases.  How did you inherit such perfect genes?

[Gknrd]

50 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

I assume you are an a person of outstanding , high moral character, unquestionable integrity, with no hint of personal prejudices and biases.  How did you inherit such perfect genes?

Most of these people are just haters, and most don't know what the market is doing IMHO. Anyone that trades stocks know that the Chinese stocks are a nightmare to get information on and have to be taken with a grain of salt. The reason they are being delisted and in such bad shape is they are not transparent. The US definitely has it's problems but if I dig deep enough I can get good information. China!  It is a <deleted> shot at best. 

There is some good undervalued stocks out there now. I am sure China has allot of good stocks that have been beaten down just like everyone else. Getting good information out of China is just a nightmare.

At this point best to leave the Chinese market to themselves. 

[Gknrd]

I love BKK in the rainy season. The only time I come into BKK is in the rainy season because I can breath here during the rainy season.. haha...  I avoid it like the plague otherwise.

I also love MBK and Siam square. BKK is one of my favorite cities in the world, but only when it rains daily.. ... 

I know I am being selfish, but I hope the zero covid policy in China lasts for years. Keep it locked down. I am enjoying my self here more than I have in years.

Thanks Xi.

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, Gknrd said:

Most of these people are just haters, and most don't know what the market is doing IMHO. Anyone that trades stocks know that the Chinese stocks are a nightmare to get information on and have to be taken with a grain of salt. The reason they are being delisted and in such bad shape is they are not transparent. The US definitely has it's problems but if I dig deep enough I can get good information. China!  It is a <deleted> shot at best. 

There is some good undervalued stocks out there now. I am sure China has allot of good stocks that have been beaten down just like everyone else. Getting good information out of China is just a nightmare.

At this point best to leave the Chinese market to themselves. 

"It is a <deleted> shot at best."  Right, it's a <deleted> shoot.  As I mentioned earlier, most Chinese are not investors, but gamblers.  This description was penned by a long-time watcher of China's financial markets.  He lived in China for many years so I respect his opinion.

[Hawaiian]

8 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

Well I guess we have different sources.

 

I believe there is still plenty of room for growth in China and I believe many Chinese tech stocks are undervalued. Those companies are growing domestically as well as internationally and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

As for China's future as a superpower, technology rules the world. Right now it's essentially China against the US (with the US still dominating I guess). There is no doubt that China will face demographic problems around 2040 but they also have plenty of room when it comes to optimizing their system (corruption, education, digitalization, etc..). The Koreans and the Japanese did it so why not the Chinese?

 

I guess we'll see what the future holds. But I'm pretty confident China will be just fine all things considered.

Undervalued stocks are cheap for various reasons.  Risk is a major factor for low values, especially for Chinese stocks.  To each his own.  At my age I don't have time to play risky games.