Bank of Thailand expects Thai economy to return to pre-pandemic levels by year-end or early 2023 but warns of possible speed bumps

[webfact]

 

By Narudon Daisachulshu

Thailand’s Covid-19 pandemic battered Thai economy is likely to see a recovery only in 2023 as the country continues to battle the rising inflation and weakening consumer confidence, the Bank of Thailand came out to announce.

 

Thailand, which has only started to see a recovery during the course of this year after the country reopened to tourism in July this year, has seen some boost in confidence as consumers start to spend on goods and services, after more than 2-years of Covid-19 induced lockdowns.

 

Sethaput Suthiwatanaruput Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) came out to say that he was confident that the Thai economy was witnessing a recovery and would likely reach pre-Covid levels by the end of this year or early next year.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/44863/bank-of-thailand-expects-thai-economy-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels-by-year-end-or-early-2023-but-warns-of-possible-speed-bumps/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-10-04

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Lets take some bets on this prediction.  Pre-covid levels in 6 months at a minimum they are alluding to, yet with the global economy in near recession and the USD leveling, well slowly sinking the baht and inflation just really starting to kick off, I personally do not see a recovery unti late 2024 early 2025.  Tourism is a big part of the economy and unless things change elsewhere Thailand may never see more than 15M tourists a year for awhile.

[nigelforbes]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Lets take some bets on this prediction.  Pre-covid levels in 6 months at a minimum they are alluding to, yet with the global economy in near recession and the USD leveling, well slowly sinking the baht and inflation just really starting to kick off, I personally do not see a recovery unti late 2024 early 2025.  Tourism is a big part of the economy and unless things change elsewhere Thailand may never see more than 15k tourists a year for awhile.

I cannot imagine what you intended to write because tourist arrivals in August were over 1.15  million! But that is some way off the 3.33 million/month needed to reach pre-covid levels (40 mill./year).

 

 https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=875&language=ENG

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I cannot imagine what you intended to write because tourist arrivals in August were over 1.15  million! But that is some way off the 3.33 million/month needed to reach pre-covid levels (40 mill./year).

 

 https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=875&language=ENG

 

 

 

The K should have been an M, a fat finger typo.  Of course I then I did not check my post before hitting the save button. My mistake and thank you for pointing out the error.

[crazykopite]

Yet more BS from these people do they not realise that there is serious conflict in Europe that could lead to another World War on top of that there are going to be major recessions in most major countries these people live on cloud cuckoo land 

[RichardColeman]

Bank of Thailand expects Thai economy to return to pre-pandemic levels by year-end or early 2023

 

2024, 2025, 2026. 2027................at some point

 

[IAMHERE]

They need a quick & dirty think tank working on getting EU types to live in The Kingdom till Europe recovers from the rescission that's gonna be caused by the conflict in Ukraine. Germany's industrial behemoth will close by year end. Lots of older EU types want to spend 120 days in a warm climate. Make 150 days in Thailand simple and you'll have a couple million snow birds with EU pensions to spend.

[greenmonkey]

1 hour ago, crazykopite said:

Yet more BS from these people do they not realise that there is serious conflict in Europe that could lead to another World War on top of that there are going to be major recessions in most major countries these people live on cloud cuckoo land 

...but why let common sense get in the way of a good old 'Thai ' prediction!

[fusion58]

Are these “predictions” made by economists or by fortune tellers?

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, fusion58 said:

Are these “predictions” made by economists or by fortune tellers?

By someone using a Magic 8 ball is my guess.

[brucegoniners]

Really? Tell that to all the people sleeping on the beach.

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s Covid-19 pandemic battered Thai economy is likely to see a recovery only in 2023 as the country continues to battle the rising inflation and weakening consumer confidence, the Bank of Thailand came out to announce.

The world is going to go into a recession in 2023.. expect nothing.

[realfunster]

Hmm, not sure what basis he is making this assessment around a year-end return to pre- COVID levels.

From published figures on Thai GDP:

2020: - 6.2% 

2021: + 1.6% (one of the weakest ‘rebounds’ globally)

2022 forecast average : + 3.0%

 

My calculation makes that 98.2% of 2019 GDP by year-end, so a way to go yet…

[nigelforbes]

9 minutes ago, realfunster said:

Hmm, not sure what basis he is making this assessment around a year-end return to pre- COVID levels.

From published figures on Thai GDP:

2020: - 6.2% 

2021: + 1.6% (one of the weakest ‘rebounds’ globally)

2022 forecast average : + 3.0%

 

My calculation makes that 98.2% of 2019 GDP by year-end, so a way to go yet…

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

[lujanit]

17 hours ago, fusion58 said:

Are these “predictions” made by economists or by fortune tellers?

No they are made by economists after consulting fortune tellers.