USD to THB - any advice on if US Dollar might get any stronger?

Speedhump · October 5, 2022

Anyone who plays markets knows that it's just foolish to try to predict the very bottom or the very top. Experts may often or even usually be able to know if a trend will continue or soon reverse, or manipulate a market to make it do so (and of course that includes currency), but I doubt any denizens of this forum work for Goldmsn Sachs or the like. ????

Anyway, cross fingers for you. I will wait up to a week to make my monthly inward transfer because I hate to buy on a falling market, I'm expecting some small upswing, but not looking for the rate to break the recent high, just something to make me feel better, because the high came too early for me. ????

wwest5829 · October 5, 2022

On 10/4/2022 at 3:14 PM, Mavideol said:

did you try a crystal ball or the tarot cards, there are, also, some fortune tellers at the corner of some street, just kidding ???? many of us on the same position/situation, as of now it's not looking good as it dropped, last night 38.13

1.00 US Dollar =

37.562206 Thai Baht

My monthly transfer came in at 37.68 today. $2200 USD, minus about $20 in Wise fee.

The Theory · October 5, 2022

On 10/4/2022 at 3:32 PM, ThoMichael said:

Yeah ???? I am thinking I better do my transfer tomorrow.

The true rate must be above $1=฿38 or even higher. US dollar is getting stronger by higher interest rates (expected to be even higher).

but of course you do what you think is right for you.

bunnydrops · October 5, 2022

I read in the NYTs that before this last increase in the value of the baht that Thailand had already spent 10 to 20 percent of their cash reserves to prop it up. One other SE Asia country had already spent over 20%.

nauseus · October 5, 2022

4 hours ago, RayOday said:

I think we got the message, thanks.

island coconut · October 5, 2022

Do I hear 40?

mikeredbike · October 5, 2022

It's all about the Dollar index (DXY). Both the 50 and 200 day are trending up. Looks like we bottomed out on 4Oct (second from right candle) and will consolidate for awhile.

ThoMichael · October 6, 2022

15 hours ago, IAMHERE said:

Wise will let you transfer that large an amount? All at one go ?

Wise would do it all in one go if I did a money transfer to them from my bank, but my bank said it would take one to two days. I don't trust my small bank where my money is. Always a problem with them. So I did a Wise transfer for $15,000 (the maximum) yesterday around noon, then have to wait 24 hours, so will do the balance in a couple of hours.

My exchange rate was around 37.40. Can't complain about that rate.

jwdub12 · October 6, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/megacap-stocks-lose-ground-yields-rise-economic-data-awaited-2022-10-05/

"The Fed is expected to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike when policymakers meet Nov. 1-2, the pricing of fed fund futures shows, according to CME's FedWatch tool."

Iamfalang · October 13, 2022

Of course the dollar is getting stronger.

I said 100%.

not 90, 99% you never know the exact day, but I think I told the OP to wait at least on half.

nobody listens to me..............................

making big money today!!!!!!!!

Dollar power, gold crushed, baht crushed!!!!!

nauseus · October 13, 2022

14 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

Of course the dollar is getting stronger.

I said 100%.

not 90, 99% you never know the exact day, but I think I told the OP to wait at least on half.

nobody listens to me..............................

making big money today!!!!!!!!

Dollar power, gold crushed, baht crushed!!!!!

And stronger again. What are you holding?

Maha Sarakham · October 13, 2022

I'm personally very pleased with the 38:1 rate. Been sending some money over week after week, some higher some lower but still much better than the 29:1 we were getting just a year ago.

wtboatr · October 13, 2022

THB/USD rose from 36 to 38 on the last 0.75% Fed rate hike. Do you think the Nov 2022 0.75% rate hike will weaken the THB/USD to 40?

nigelforbes · October 13, 2022

1 hour ago, wtboatr said:

THB/USD rose from 36 to 38 on the last 0.75% Fed rate hike. Do you think the Nov 2022 0.75% rate hike will weaken the THB/USD to 40?

It's not a one for one relationship, an increase to 40 is by no means certain, it could just as easily fall to 37, depending what happens to THB.

wtboatr · October 14, 2022

21 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

It's not a one for one relationship, an increase to 40 is by no means certain, it could just as easily fall to 37, depending what happens to THB.

True. But what action can the Thai government take to strengthen the Baht?

The central bank could spend their foreign currency reserves and buy Baht on the open market, but that would deplete their foreign currency reserves.

The central bank could raise interest rates and reduce the amount of Baht in circulation. But that would have an impact on the booming economy (at least the construction economy in Bangkok) and reduce GDP.

Or the central bank can do nothing and watch the THB/USD rate fall to 40:1 in the next few months and accept paying more for imported goods and reduce their imports too. In the long run, Thai exports become cheaper, and with the increase in exports, the Thai Baht strengthens once again.

I would think the last option is the best for Thailand.

CartagenaWarlock · October 14, 2022

On 10/4/2022 at 4:06 AM, Mavideol said:

they should/would/will improve again as soon as the US raises interest rates by end of the year

Fed will keep increasing rate. Inflation is already red hot in October. Good for SS recipients. Two decades of zero rates and 3 trillion of free money during Covid will require rates to go up to 5-6% at least, may be more. But hard to predict for a 20 trillion economy. All those people who financed/bought real estate at less than 3% rate are enjoying their riches now.

nigelforbes · October 14, 2022

8 hours ago, wtboatr said:

True. But what action can the Thai government take to strengthen the Baht?

The central bank could spend their foreign currency reserves and buy Baht on the open market, but that would deplete their foreign currency reserves.

The central bank could raise interest rates and reduce the amount of Baht in circulation. But that would have an impact on the booming economy (at least the construction economy in Bangkok) and reduce GDP.

Or the central bank can do nothing and watch the THB/USD rate fall to 40:1 in the next few months and accept paying more for imported goods and reduce their imports too. In the long run, Thai exports become cheaper, and with the increase in exports, the Thai Baht strengthens once again.

I would think the last option is the best for Thailand.

I agree with your assessment although another option might be that BOT raises interest rates slightly faster and slightly higher than planned previously, the rate increase doesn't have to be an all or nothing scenario.

One of the risks of doing nothing is that the gap between THB and USD widens even further, beyond 40. The US is not having much success in reducing CPI which just came in hot, that means at least two more 0.75% rate increases, it may even mean three. If that materializes we could see an even weaker THB which will stress imports. particularly oil costs, which are already forecast to remain high. The Thai Oil Price Equalization fund just accepted another USD 1 bill. in government support. The fund is a smart idea to help keep inflation low but the country can't afford too much more debt without something coming under stress.

And if exports continue to outstrip imports by a substantial margin, the current account will be back in surplus and the US will start to cry currency manipulation again, that's the last thing anyone needs.

Mavideol · October 15, 2022

12 hours ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

Fed will keep increasing rate. Inflation is already red hot in October. Good for SS recipients. Two decades of zero rates and 3 trillion of free money during Covid will require rates to go up to 5-6% at least, may be more. But hard to predict for a 20 trillion economy. All those people who financed/bought real estate at less than 3% rate are enjoying their riches now.

just waiting for fixed deposit rates to increase, USD at 40 baht and all will be good on my side 555

CartagenaWarlock · October 16, 2022

On 10/14/2022 at 6:54 PM, nigelforbes said:

The US is not having much success in reducing CPI

All indications shows inflation is stabilizing and hovering around 8-9% this year compared to last year. Fed will keep raising rates till inflation reaches 2-3% compared to the prior year by mid next year. The market has enjoyed near zero rate for two decades unheard of before. I hope they continue to raise rates so that savings rate can return to pre 2008 level. It may destroy the markets and explosion of 401K/IRA millionaires.

wtboatr · October 16, 2022

On 10/14/2022 at 4:54 PM, nigelforbes said:

If that materializes we could see an even weaker THB which will stress imports. particularly oil costs, which are already forecast to remain high. The Thai Oil Price Equalization fund just accepted another USD 1 bill. in government support. The fund is a smart idea to help keep inflation low but the country can't afford too much more debt without something coming under stress.

Oil prices are cyclical. I believe it's a bad decision for governments to subsidize oil prices. It's a long lasting burden on the tax payers while only providing temporary price reductions. It's better for oil prices to be high temporarily. High oil prices incentive a change of behavior to alternative methods of energy use and transport. In my case, I'm toying with the idea of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and an electric bicycle as means of transport to reduce my reliance on expensive petrol.

In 2.5 weeks the US Fed is expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate 0.75%. Unless the Thai Central Bank or government takes action (what kind of action, I have no idea), I expect to see the Baht weaken further. It would not surprise me to see the Baht trading between 39 and 40 in the next few weeks.

nigelforbes · October 16, 2022

2 hours ago, wtboatr said:

Oil prices are cyclical. I believe it's a bad decision for governments to subsidize oil prices. It's a long lasting burden on the tax payers while only providing temporary price reductions. It's better for oil prices to be high temporarily. High oil prices incentive a change of behavior to alternative methods of energy use and transport. In my case, I'm toying with the idea of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and an electric bicycle as means of transport to reduce my reliance on expensive petrol.

In 2.5 weeks the US Fed is expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate 0.75%. Unless the Thai Central Bank or government takes action (what kind of action, I have no idea), I expect to see the Baht weaken further. It would not surprise me to see the Baht trading between 39 and 40 in the next few weeks.

I agree with what you wrote about oil prices, but not in the case of Thailand where the vast majority of the country comprises rural poor. It's one thing to have temporarily high oil prices that cause problems for much of the population getting into the office but something quite different when it's low paid agricultural workers who can't even survive. I think the oil stabilization fund here in Thailand has proved to be a stroke of genius in helping prevent inflation but also in helping the rural poor keep their heads above water.

Sparktrader · October 16, 2022

On 10/13/2022 at 11:53 PM, nauseus said:

And stronger again. What are you holding?

Middle leg

flexomike · October 16, 2022