Inflation in Thailand/Ch Mai: how bad is it now & what's your forecast?

[Bangkok Barry]

Just now, nigelforbes said:

What is ridiculous is thinking that the price of every item sold every month, mist be measured, before the rate of inflation can be understood.

That seems perfectly logical to me. You simply can't choose some items and not others, otherwise you obviously get a distorted picture. The fact that it might be impractical doesn't change that at all.

So we'll just have to differ on that.

[Lacessit]

13 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

I'm not in Bangkok. Moved from there years ago, but didn't change my moniker. I'm in Kalasin. I have no idea where the near monopoly Lotus's and Big C source from. But in my area prices of pork and chicken rose this year by at the very least 50%. My potatoes increased from 28 to, currently, 49 and rising.

As I've said elsewhere on this thread, choosing some items and not others to base inflation on is completely pointless. ie Milk has gone up 3% and we'll include that. Pork has gone up 50% but we'll ignore that. Ridiculous.

Are you buying in Lotus and Big C, or a local day market? IME there's a big price difference.

[Bangkok Barry]

8 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Are you buying in Lotus and Big C, or a local day market? IME there's a big price difference.

Mostly the supermarkets, but vegetables in the market. I don't trust the questionable hygiene of buying meat in the market. But it doesn't matter where I buy - prices are up by far more than the reported few %.

[lkn]

17 minutes ago, Classic Ray said:

The packet size reduced from 55g to 50g, accompanied by a price increase.

It’s called shrinkflation.

 

As for inflation though, while it is easy to compare grocery shop items; hotels, transportation, fruits, eating out, Thai massages, etc. have so much variance that it’s hard to nail down one price for these things. It depends on where you are, time of year, and sometimes even who you are or how good you are at negotiating.

 

But when prices go up in Thailand, for places that deal in handwritten receipts and cash payment, it will often be high percentages, as they will increase the price to the next round number, so a dish sold for 40 baht will increase to 50 baht (25%), or a massage will go from 200 baht to 250 or 300 baht (25-50%).

 

It would be weird to see noodles sold for 41.20 baht (3% increase from 40 baht) and the cashier would quickly run out of change…

[Lacessit]

8 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Mostly the supermarkets, but vegetables in the market. I don't trust the questionable hygiene of buying meat in the market. But it doesn't matter where I buy - prices are up by far more than the reported few %.

I buy meat, yoghurt and cheese at a TOPS supermarket. All my fruit, eggs and vegetables come from the day markets.

All the TOPS prices have increased by 15-20%.

Due to my diet, I don't buy any processed foods, apart from the yoghurt and cheese.

[Kwasaki]

14 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Today a 6 pack Lactasoy costs 62 baht in Big C up from 50 baht so 24% increase

56 in 7-11. 

[lkn]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

All the TOPS prices have increased by 15-20%.

Bought a bottle of water (at TOPS) yesterday, and it was still 7 baht (same as 3 years ago, when I was last here), so not all prices have gone up ????

[scubascuba3]

14 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

56 in 7-11. 

Strange why Big C has increased price by so much, even staff said too much and led me to a different brand. It's been 48\50 for 2+ years

[Lacessit]

4 minutes ago, lkn said:

Bought a bottle of water (at TOPS) yesterday, and it was still 7 baht (same as 3 years ago, when I was last here), so not all prices have gone up ????

I don't buy water. I boil water out of the tap for drinking, which IMO is the safest way to get potable water.

[Peterphuket]

9 minutes ago, lkn said:

Bought a bottle of water (at TOPS) yesterday, and it was still 7 baht (same as 3 years ago, when I was last here), so not all prices have gone up ????

Of course the Chao Phraya is still flowing....

[mjakob007]

M&M has gone up 26% in 2 years!

49THB to 52, 57, 62

[lkn]

19 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I don't buy water. I boil water out of the tap for drinking, which IMO is the safest way to get potable water.

Unfortunately I was all out of chlorine tablets and had left my camping stove at home, when I felt the need for hydration, but 7 baht lesson learned…

[Seppius]

Anyone fancy Brussels Sprouts for Christmas? Villa, Pattaya has them. B870 a kilo

 

[The Theory]

The problem is the inflation is already there and everyday more higher price, but exchange rate is at what it must be. In fact Baht getting stronger against $ ????. Interest rates going up in the US and $ getting stronger, but here exchange rate working opposite way. For no no reason Baht getting stronger ????. I wished this unreal rate could help to slower the inflation, but it seems this is not a solution. Perhaps there is a benefit for keeping the Baht strong, but I can't see that. 

[newbee2022]

plot prices are going up a lot. doubled within last 2 years. Probably because of buyers from BKK?

[Lacessit]

33 minutes ago, lkn said:

Unfortunately I was all out of chlorine tablets and had left my camping stove at home, when I felt the need for hydration, but 7 baht lesson learned…

When chlorine is added to water for sterilization purposes, it forms chloramines with any organic nitrogen present.

Chloramines are suspected of causing soft tissue cancers in humans, although they are  difficult to isolate due to statistical noise.

When I boil water for drinking, it not only kills any bacteria, viruses or parasites present, it also eliminates chlorine and chloramines by steam distillation.

Try tasting water fresh out of a tap, and boiled water allowed to cool back to room temperature.

I am quite confident you will notice the difference.

 

[lkn]

29 minutes ago, The Theory said:

Perhaps there is a benefit for keeping the Baht strong, but I can't see that

They currently have a trade deficit (has had for the last 7 months) and export is decreasing. So it would seem beneficial to allow the baht to weaken.

 

On the other hand, historically Thailand tends to have a trade surplus, and the deficit might be related to current world affairs (their main export being manufactured goods, like electronics and cars), so a weaker baht might not improve their export, but would for sure increase the cost of imports, and they do import energy.

 

So this might be why they are (presumably) using their reserves to keep the baht at the current level, effectively subsidising their energy imports. I’m not really following Thai affairs, but they are definitely not hesitant to provide economic relief to “voters”, and presumably Bank of Thailand has a mandate (like most other central banks) to “ensure price stability”, so under that mandate, it would make sense to keep the price of energy imports at their current level (and use some of their reserves to support the baht).

 

Here I assume the inflation experienced in Thailand is due to external factors, so increasing the interest rate to limit consumption would not have a significant effect on prices.

 

Disclaimer: I have done no research on this topic, just got curious when I googled their trade balance and see that baht is effectively unaffected by their current deficit.

[nigelforbes]

3 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

That seems perfectly logical to me. You simply can't choose some items and not others, otherwise you obviously get a distorted picture. The fact that it might be impractical doesn't change that at all.

So we'll just have to differ on that.

For information only.

 

Pollsters have long known that the optimum size of an opinion poll is 1,100 people, anything less than 1,100 and the results of the poll are not representative of the entire population, anything more than 1,100 doesn't change the outcome. It is therefore not necessary to poll everyone in the country to establish, with a high degree of certainty, the answer to the question being asked.

 

Similarly, statisticians and economists have proven that sampling 421 products and services in an economy provides a statistically certain answer regarding the rate of inflation. It is of course necessary to monitor the basket of goods and services and to swap in and out from time to time, those items that are under used. As with opinion polls, sampling less provides an uncertain answer and sampling more doesn't change the answer. One of the keys to why this is so accurate is that the same products are measured, at the same outlets, at the same date/time each month.

 

On a separate point, just for information again, I casually asked my wife today if she had noticed increases in the price of chicken and pork. She said that she used to pay 190 a kilo for pork and in the past year it has increased to 230, about 18% increase. She shops at Makro and at the markets in Northern Thailand. 

 

[nigelforbes]

9 minutes ago, lkn said:

They currently have a trade deficit (has had for the last 7 months) and export is decreasing. So it would seem beneficial to allow the baht to weaken.

 

On the other hand, historically Thailand tends to have a trade surplus, and the deficit might be related to current world affairs (their main export being manufactured goods, like electronics and cars), so a weaker baht might not improve their export, but would for sure increase the cost of imports, and they do import energy.

 

So this might be why they are (presumably) using their reserves to keep the baht at the current level, effectively subsidising their energy imports. I’m not really following Thai affairs, but they are definitely not hesitant to provide economic relief to “voters”, and presumably Bank of Thailand has a mandate (like most other central banks) to “ensure price stability”, so under that mandate, it would make sense to keep the price of energy imports at their current level (and use some of their reserves to support the baht).

 

Here I assume the inflation experienced in Thailand is due to external factors, so increasing the interest rate to limit consumption would not have a significant effect on prices.

 

Disclaimer: I have done no research on this topic, just got curious when I googled their trade balance and see that baht is effectively unaffected by their current deficit.

Not quite. Thailand traditional operates a trade deficit, it certainly has for the nine months out of the past twelve. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade

 

With regards to energy subsidies: Thailand operates an oil subsidy fund which allows them to keep consumer prices lower than they otherwise would be. That fund was long ago depleted, replenished with large government borrowings and is

once again being slowly replenished, again.

 

Lastly regarding the Baht: BOT has intervened in markets to smooth out the peaks and valleys of the exchange rate, that is their mandate under IMF managed float  rules. They have not done that to manage oil/fuel prices which are managed via the above.

[Orinoco]

Thais are price gorging at present. 

it's not just inflation because of X,Y,Z.

 

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Orinoco said:

Thais are price gorging at present. 

it's not just inflation because of X,Y,Z.

 

You mean like Western airlines, Western utility companies and Western food suppliers.

 

 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/30/uk-food-price-inflation-hits-new-high-of-124

[Orinoco]

2 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

You mean like Western airlines, Western utility companies and Western food suppliers.

 

 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/30/uk-food-price-inflation-hits-new-high-of-124

Thought you blocked me.

oh well,  please do it again and use the correct buttons this time. 

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Orinoco said:

Thought you blocked me.

oh well,  please do it again and use the correct buttons this time. 

Done, you're good thru end first quarter.

[lkn]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Not quite. Thailand traditional operates a trade deficit, it certainly has for the nine months out of the past twelve. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade

I did say they had a trade deficit for the last 7 months, but if you look over the last 8 years, this is how it looks

 

 

We see that ~20% of the months have a relatively small deficit compared to the 80% of months with a surplus.

 

Though your other points are well noted.

[khunPer]

6 hours ago, Peterphuket said:

I get the strong impression that the Makro is the champion in higher prices these days.

It started when ownership was taken over from the Dutch by the Thai of course.

A few months ago I bought ansjovis a big jar, 750 gr for 750 thb, last week I tried to buy the same jar but it was no longer there. Only a smaller one of 250 gr and watch out, for the same price 750 thb! 3 times more expansive!

Always look at the bright side of life: You can reuse the small jar with the patent locked lid, a jar like that might cost you 500 baht, so same-same but different...

[Kwasaki]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Strange why Big C has increased price by so much, even staff said too much and led me to a different brand. It's been 48\50 for 2+ years

Like anything I guess supply and demand the market sets there price on what margins they have to keep.

[FarAway]

8 hours ago, LittleBear57 said:

I don't believe the statistics many things are up over 20%. bought potatoes from Makro this week 65 bht/kilo earlier this year it was 36. Other things up too. Pork has almost doubled over the past two years chicken up 40% too over that period. Noodles up Bread up milk up all above the "rate of inflation" and thats just what I've noticed. Started growing our own peppers now as they've gone up around 40% too.

Conspiracy theorist, how can you think for your own? Just believe the government and their statistics!!

[Peterphuket]

1 hour ago, khunPer said:

Always look at the bright side of life: You can reuse the small jar with the patent locked lid, a jar like that might cost you 500 baht, so same-same but different...

You must be a very optimistic guy, unlike myself.????

[spidermike007]

18 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I said earlier that it is 6.71%, the average CPI is 6.3% according to the IMF.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/THA

These figures mean less than zero to most of us. They don't take into account most of the products and services we use. 

 

Inflation here is likely 12%. In the US now, likely 25%, in real practical numbers, not fake govt. figures. 

 

Fortunately, anything labor related has not gone up much here. Also, rent has not gone up much. Big factors. Inflation here is alot less than back home. 

[nigelforbes]

13 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

These figures mean less than zero to most of us. They don't take into account most of the products and services we use. 

 

Inflation here is likely 12%. In the US now, likely 25%, in real practical numbers, not fake govt. figures. 

 

Fortunately, anything labor related has not gone up much here. Also, rent has not gone up much. Big factors. Inflation here is alot less than back home. 

If you saying that Asean Now posters/readers don't use a majority of the 421 items in the Thai inflation basket and that instead they use different products and services, it's no wonder their inflation rate is high. But really, they do a majority of those items, at last normal families here do.

 

Here's a part of the BOT inflation calculation for 2021, for one region, it will give you an idea what is contained in the calculation .https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=878&language=ENG