Brexit has cracked Britain’s economic foundations

[ozimoron]

[ozimoron]

[ozimoron]

link to above charts

 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls

[Mac Mickmanus]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

link to above charts

 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls

Here are the latest figures :

 

Rishi Sunak cuts Labour poll lead from 30 to 11 points as Tories claw back Red Wall voters

 

Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives has fallen to 11 points from a high of 30, with signs that Rishi Sunak is clawing back support among 2019 Red Wall voters.

The latest survey by Savanta puts Labour on 42 per cent, down five points since last week, while the Conservatives are up five points to 31 per cent.

 

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-claws-back-2019-tory-voters-cutting-labour-lead-from-30-to-11-points-poll-shows-2021134

 

[ozimoron]

12 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Here are the latest figures :

 

Rishi Sunak cuts Labour poll lead from 30 to 11 points as Tories claw back Red Wall voters

 

Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives has fallen to 11 points from a high of 30, with signs that Rishi Sunak is clawing back support among 2019 Red Wall voters.

The latest survey by Savanta puts Labour on 42 per cent, down five points since last week, while the Conservatives are up five points to 31 per cent.

 

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-claws-back-2019-tory-voters-cutting-labour-lead-from-30-to-11-points-poll-shows-2021134

 

The Ipsos poll is more recent.

[Mac Mickmanus]

2 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The Ipsos poll is more recent.

Your poll 

 

 

7 December 2022

 

My Poll

 

9 December 2022

My poll

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Your poll 

 

 

7 December 2022

 

My Poll

 

9 December 2022

My poll

Updated on 23 December 2022 at 11:00.

[Bluespunk]

2 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Your poll 

 

 

7 December 2022

 

My Poll

 

9 December 2022

My poll

Your poll was carried out on 2-4 December not the 9th. 

[vinny41]

24 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The Ipsos poll is more recent.

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 7th to 13th December 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/conservatives-no-longer-most-trusted-grow-britains-economy

How many people voted in the EU referendum answer 33,577,342

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 7th to 13th December 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/conservatives-no-longer-most-trusted-grow-britains-economy

How many people voted in the EU referendum answer 33,577,342

You could have quoted the rest of that paragraph but for some treason you omitted the last part. I quote it here for completeness.

 

there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

[Mac Mickmanus]

25 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Updated on 23 December 2022 at 11:00.

Lets call it a draw  and the next one wins

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Lets call it a draw  and the next one wins

How about the most recent poll wins?

[vinny41]

6 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

You could have quoted the rest of that paragraph but for some treason you omitted the last part. I quote it here for completeness.

 

there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

Forum rules state that you can only quote 3-4 lines the link was provided so anyone could read the full paragraph

still only representative sample of 1,007 adults that were telephoned

Do you know how many forum members took part in this poll I suspect none but you never know

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, vinny41 said:

Forum rules state that you can only quote 3-4 lines the link was provided so anyone could read the full paragraph

still only representative sample of 1,007 adults that were telephoned

Do you know how many forum members took part in this poll I suspect none but you never know

then you left out the most pertinent part, that is the level of confidence in the poll.

[Mac Mickmanus]

15 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

How about the most recent poll wins?

OK, you can win ????

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

OK, you can win ????

Thanks, I was worried that you wouldn't concede.

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

then you left out the most pertinent part, that is the level of confidence in the poll.

In December 2021 there was 46,560,452 people registered to vote your poll talked to 1007 of them which means there is 46,559.445 people that they don't know what there voting intentions are they can guess and that's about it 

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

In December 2021 there was 46,560,452 people registered to vote your poll talked to 1007 of them which means there is 46,559.445 people that they don't know what there voting intentions are they can guess and that's about it 

I'm guessing you never studied stats at school? Or understand how polls work? Most polls sample about that proportion of the pool and aim for around 3 to 4% margin of error. It isn't necessary to poll everybody to get a reliable result.

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I'm guessing you never studied stats at school? Or understand how polls work? Most polls sample about that proportion of the pool and aim for around 3 to 4% margin of error. It isn't necessary to poll everybody to get a reliable result.

You mean like the 2016 EU referendum I know many voters that indicated they would vote remain but decided not to bother becuase the majority of polls indicated that remain was home and dry

 

How the pollsters got it wrong on the EU referendum

This article is more than 6 years old

It was a bad night for the opinion polls, with few predicting the 52:48 split in favour of leave

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

 

[ozimoron]

19 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

You mean like the 2016 EU referendum I know many voters that indicated they would vote remain but decided not to bother becuase the majority of polls indicated that remain was home and dry

 

How the pollsters got it wrong on the EU referendum

This article is more than 6 years old

It was a bad night for the opinion polls, with few predicting the 52:48 split in favour of leave

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

 

and yet polls continue to be taken. Go figure.

 

That particular election is infamous for the Murdoch press having put its thumb on the scale.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/23/bigger-foreign-intervention-brexit-referendum-russia-rupert-murdoch

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

and yet polls continue to be taken. Go figure.

Because their is money to be made out of polls, normally as a rule polls results always matched the poll sponsor agenda I can't recall any poll published that has gone against the poll sponsor ( I suspect they wouldn't pay for a poll that didn't agree with)

[ozimoron]

Just now, vinny41 said:

Because their is money to be made out of polls, normally as a rule polls results always matched the poll sponsor agenda I can't recall any poll published that has gone against the poll sponsor ( I suspect they wouldn't pay for a poll that didn't agree with)

I think you need to cough up a link or two to support that conspiracy theory.

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

You mean like the 2016 EU referendum I know many voters that indicated they would vote remain but decided not to bother becuase the majority of polls indicated that remain was home and dry

 

How the pollsters got it wrong on the EU referendum

This article is more than 6 years old

It was a bad night for the opinion polls, with few predicting the 52:48 split in favour of leave

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

 

All's well that ends well.

[Mac Mickmanus]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Thanks, I was worried that you wouldn't concede.

My attention span and interest in the subject of which day in December 2022 polls were taken on the subject of the popularity of UK politicians was , my attention span and interest of that subject matter got completely exhausted and I found another more interesting subject to occupy my time .

   I sat looking out my window and wondered whether the wind would blow the last leaf left on the tree off  

[Bluespunk]

More cracks

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/27/uk-traders-on-brexit-its-increased-paperwork-stress-everything?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/27/charities-and-employers-struggling-due-to-post-brexit-funding-delays?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Will B Good]

Seriously confused..............

 

I understood Brexit was to be/is to be a resounding success.....massive boost in trade all around the world, trade deal with the US within days, people begging to trade with us, no more immigration, high wage economy, frictionless trading with the EU.......has none of that happened.....????

 

 

 

[RayC]

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

All's well that ends well.

That definitely is a matter of opinion (poll or no poll)

[Mac Mickmanus]

8 hours ago, vinny41 said:

You mean like the 2016 EU referendum I know many voters that indicated they would vote remain but decided not to bother becuase the majority of polls indicated that remain was home and dry

 

 

The polls were fluctuating between leave and remain in the months leading up to the vote and in the last six polls before the vote , two of the polls went with Leave and four of the polls went with remain  that is hardly "home and dry"

[vinny41]

4 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

The polls were fluctuating between leave and remain in the months leading up to the vote and in the last six polls before the vote , two of the polls went with Leave and four of the polls went with remain  that is hardly "home and dry"

When people are deciding to vote on voting day they tend to refer to the polls carried out in the past 48 hours not months ago

Polls did give a sense of the swing to leave in the first weeks of June, but edged back to favour remain in the final days before the vote. Just two of six polls released the day before the referendum – those carried out by TNS and Opinium – gave leave the edge.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

[ozimoron]

22 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

When people are deciding to vote on voting day they tend to refer to the polls carried out in the past 48 hours not months ago

Polls did give a sense of the swing to leave in the first weeks of June, but edged back to favour remain in the final days before the vote. Just two of six polls released the day before the referendum – those carried out by TNS and Opinium – gave leave the edge.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

You use polls to help you decide who to vote for?