Thai Baht vs Sterling Exchange Rate

[orang37]

On 1/15/2023 at 12:15 PM, nigelforbes said:

The Asian crisis was over 25 years ago,

 

So really the only question is, will THB strengthen against GBP, by 10% over the next 10 years? I think it would be extremely foolish to bet against that.

 

 

So, you arbitrarily set your range to 20 years ago to exclude a "black swan" event.

 

The only question is whether your guesses, posing as hypotheses, make you any money.

 

You are looking with "Wall Street Eyes" at an economy where off-the-books, brown envelope, finances are gigantic icebergs floating, hidden, in the GDP, bribery and tax-dodging are endemic, and economic catastrophes are frequent.

 

As world-wide depression, and, inflation, rises, and dangerous new strains of Covisd emerge ... you want to bet on the latest predictions of TAT and BOT ?

 

I won't waste any more time on this thread ????

[nigelforbes]

5 hours ago, orang37 said:

So, you arbitrarily set your range to 20 years ago to exclude a "black swan" event.

 

The only question is whether your guesses, posing as hypotheses, make you any money.

 

You are looking with "Wall Street Eyes" at an economy where off-the-books, brown envelope, finances are gigantic icebergs floating, hidden, in the GDP, bribery and tax-dodging are endemic, and economic catastrophes are frequent.

 

As world-wide depression, and, inflation, rises, and dangerous new strains of Covisd emerge ... you want to bet on the latest predictions of TAT and BOT ?

 

I won't waste any more time on this thread ????

I don't know why you bothered to post to be honest. Mine is a curious interest in economics, not in making money, as I would have thought anyone who lives here might or should have 

 

I hope you find something else to read that please your interest more.

[orang37]

6 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I don't know why you bothered to post to be honest. Mine is a curious interest in economics, not in making money, as I would have thought anyone who lives here might or should have 

 

I hope you find something else to read that please your interest more.

In other words, anyone who questions your uninformed opinions, and speculations, about the Thai economy on a public forum about Thailand/Chiang Mai ... irritates you, and should not "be here."

 

Ad Hominem attacks used to divert from discussion of issues ... bounce off me, and, suggest something about your insecurity.

[soalbundy]

On 1/14/2023 at 7:00 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks for the long explanation but isn't that obvious even without all those fancy terms? ???? 

Same with the Euro, it's gone up against the Dollar but down against the Baht. I read in Bloomberg that the Baht is the only Asian currency which wont have problems in 2023.

[earlinclaifornia]

On 1/14/2023 at 11:49 AM, RichardColeman said:

If oil and commodities start being paid for in other currencies - which they are talking about now after the daft dollar increase recently - then the dollar will collapse. - big time

I read this also on QAnon

[jesimps]

On 1/14/2023 at 9:35 AM, Celsius said:

It is quite easy really. Guys there is not BOT manipulation.

 

You left UK because it apparently sucks hard. You draw your UK pension in baht or whatever because you need baht in Thailand. You and 20 million other tourists, expats and sexpats that will come to Thailand this year and they didn't even take care (yet) of a single buffalo. Meanwhile UK produces nothing.... it is a complete disaster.... taxes going on welfare and housing recipients, economic refugees that need to be housed, the never-ending healthcare suck hole and a high council tax that doesn't even cover 10% of the expenditures. Did I mention UK produces nothing? I mean it's worse than Canada and Trudeau set the bar pretty low. Remember, this is why you left for Thailand.

 

And then people wonder why UK pound tanks. It is going to low 30's.

 

I know your question was a bit different, but in reality you are just wondering how much pain will you get in the future. The answer is A LOT.

I've seen similar posts as this at irregular intervals over the past 16 years of living here. I do agree though with most of your second paragraph. 

[nigelforbes]

On 1/14/2023 at 9:35 AM, Celsius said:

It is quite easy really. Guys there is not BOT manipulation.

 

You left UK because it apparently sucks hard. You draw your UK pension in baht or whatever because you need baht in Thailand. You and 20 million other tourists, expats and sexpats that will come to Thailand this year and they didn't even take care (yet) of a single buffalo. Meanwhile UK produces nothing.... it is a complete disaster.... taxes going on welfare and housing recipients, economic refugees that need to be housed, the never-ending healthcare suck hole and a high council tax that doesn't even cover 10% of the expenditures. Did I mention UK produces nothing? I mean it's worse than Canada and Trudeau set the bar pretty low. Remember, this is why you left for Thailand.

 

And then people wonder why UK pound tanks. It is going to low 30's.

 

I know your question was a bit different, but in reality you are just wondering how much pain will you get in the future. The answer is A LOT.

 "It is going to low 30's."

 

Hope everyone's paying attention to that because I'm sure it is also.

[KhaoYai]

On 1/13/2023 at 11:55 PM, sammieuk1 said:

Simple answer is no one can explain the Baht no matter what the economic outlook is good or bad ridiculous actions and statements from unelected generals makes no difference ???? 

Totally agree - I've read all these explanations from the 'experts' many times before yet the baht seems to do what it wants.

 

To a stupid layman - what I don't understand is that when the pound was at 1.08 dollars, the pound was at over 42 to the baht.  Today the pound is 1.22 to the dollar yet its down to 40.14 against the baht.  This is what I, and I'd guess many others don't understand when we're told the pound/baht is directly related to the pound/dollar.

 

Mind you, if we'd listened to the 'experts' the pound would be down to 23 against the baht now.

 

Nothing seems to affect the baht.  If another country had a coup, its currency would collapse - the baht hardly faltered in 2014.  Toursim collapsed in 2020 due to Covid - baht remained relatively stable.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Totally agree - I've read all these explanations from the 'experts' many times before yet the baht seems to do what it wants.

 

To a stupid layman - what I don't understand is that when the pound was at 1.08 dollars, the pound was at over 42 to the baht.  Today the pound is 1.22 to the dollar yet its down to 40.14 against the baht.  This is what I, and I'd guess many others don't understand when we're told the pound/baht is directly related to the pound/dollar.

 

Mind you, if we'd listened to the 'experts' the pound would be down to 23 against the baht now.

Go back and read the second post on the first page, slowly. Pound/Baht directly related to Pound/Dollar AND Baht. There are three separate movements to be considered, not just two. A couple of posters in this thread and others have done the calculation and proven this, try it for your self, the calculation is there on the first page.

[nigelforbes]

15 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Totally agree - I've read all these explanations from the 'experts' many times before yet the baht seems to do what it wants.

 

To a stupid layman - what I don't understand is that when the pound was at 1.08 dollars, the pound was at over 42 to the baht.  Today the pound is 1.22 to the dollar yet its down to 40.14 against the baht.  This is what I, and I'd guess many others don't understand when we're told the pound/baht is directly related to the pound/dollar.

 

Mind you, if we'd listened to the 'experts' the pound would be down to 23 against the baht now.

 

Nothing seems to affect the baht.  If another country had a coup, its currency would collapse - the baht hardly faltered in 2014.  Toursim collapsed in 2020 due to Covid - baht remained relatively stable.

Here, courtesy Henryfords post:

 

"That seems to work !

 

14/10/22     P/TB 42.99 P/US 1.13 US/TB 38.03  1.13 x 38.03  =  42.97

 

14/1/23        P/TB 40.09 P/US 1.22 US/TB 32.79  1.22 x 32.79 = 40.00

 

So even though the Pound has risen 8% against the dollar it's dropped 7% against the baht, because the dollar has dropped 14% against the baht".

[paulikens]

the baht is manipulated no doubt about it. it hasn't weaken in coups, lockdowns, etc, etc,  but the majority of currencies have. doesn't add up to me

[KhaoYai]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

 "It is going to low 30's."

 

Hope everyone's paying attention to that because I'm sure it is also.

Are you one of those who also forecast 23 a couple of years back?

[nigelforbes]

16 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Are you one of those who also forecast 23 a couple of years back?

Nope!

 

If anyone was forecasting 23, that would have been against USD rather than GBP. Given that Dollar/Baht did hit 29 a couple of times last decade and was pegged at 25 for many many years, 23 doesn't seem too ridiculous, within the next decade.

[Thingamabob]

If you don't already you need to get to know the rich and powerful in Thailand. You'll find that the baht strengthens when they are making overseas investments.

[nigelforbes]

30 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

If you don't already you need to get to know the rich and powerful in Thailand. You'll find that the baht strengthens when they are making overseas investments.

And you know this how?

[SheungWan]

Everybody has an opinion, but not everybody has a position worth listening to.

[KhaoYai]

14 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Nope!

 

If anyone was forecasting 23, that would have been against USD rather than GBP. Given that Dollar/Baht did hit 29 a couple of times last decade and was pegged at 25 for many many years, 23 doesn't seem too ridiculous, within the next decade.

Well let's see, I've seen quite a few posts on here that forecast the pound will dive, it hasn't. Yes, it dropped within hours of the Brexit vote and that's when the 'experts' on here said it would continue downward and settle around 23-25. I thought that was nonsense then and it was.

 

Likewise, if the pound falls to 30 baht within 12 months, I'll do some serious hat eating. The UK economy is not doing as badly as was forecast and it now seems that inflation will be brought under control earlier than expected.  Busineses are still struggling to find staff meaning they have decent order books. I talked to my estate agent on Tuesday morning as I'm planning to sell a property this summer and she told me that house sales are stronger than this time last year, prices in this area haven't dropped and mortgages are freely available.  What we see on the news appears to be at odds with the real world.

 

I've been seeing all these doom and gloom forecasts for years - none of them come true. Let's see.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Well let's see, I've seen quite a few posts on here that forecast the pound will dive, it hasn't. Yes, it dropped within hours of the Brexit vote and that's when the 'experts' on here said it would continue downward and settle around 23-25. I thought that was nonsense then and it was.

 

Likewise, if the pound falls to 30 baht within 12 months, I'll do some serious hat eating. The UK economy is not doing as badly as was forecast and it now seems that inflation will be brought under control earlier than expected.  Busineses are still struggling to find staff meaning they have decent order books. I talked to my estate agent on Tuesday morning as I'm planning to sell a property this summer and she told me that house sales are stronger than this time last year, prices in this area haven't dropped and mortgages are freely available.  What we see on the news appears to be at odds with the real world.

 

I've been seeing all these doom and gloom forecasts for years - none of them come true. Let's see.

A couple of points:

 

Another poster said that the Pound would fall to 30 within a decade, not in one year as you have reported, I agreed with that poster then and I continue to do so.

 

Looking at a currency value over one year or thereabouts is pretty meaningless, it's really the longer term trend that is important. I wish it weren't that way but the value of the Pound has fallen steadily since Bretton Woods and there's nothing on the radar to suggest it will stop or reverse. You might want to consider looking past the short term blips of property prices going where ever and staff shortages etc etc, look at the bigger picture over a longer timeframe. Part of that bigger picture is the increased levels of public debt, increased tax burden and the lack of inward investment.

[nigelforbes]

21 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

Well let's see, I've seen quite a few posts on here that forecast the pound will dive, it hasn't. Yes, it dropped within hours of the Brexit vote and that's when the 'experts' on here said it would continue downward and settle around 23-25. I thought that was nonsense then and it was.

 

Likewise, if the pound falls to 30 baht within 12 months, I'll do some serious hat eating. The UK economy is not doing as badly as was forecast and it now seems that inflation will be brought under control earlier than expected.  Busineses are still struggling to find staff meaning they have decent order books. I talked to my estate agent on Tuesday morning as I'm planning to sell a property this summer and she told me that house sales are stronger than this time last year, prices in this area haven't dropped and mortgages are freely available.  What we see on the news appears to be at odds with the real world.

 

I've been seeing all these doom and gloom forecasts for years - none of them come true. Let's see.

A couple of charts for you to look at, GBP/USD 50+ years, and the ERI or effective trade weighted value of Sterling from the BOE, since 2005. Note the long term downward trend.

 

https://www.chartoasis.com/gbp-usd-forex-chart-50-years-cop0/

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/bk67/mret/previous/v93

[eisfeld]

Quote

They stole the vote exchange rate! Make the Baht great weak again!

 

This comes to mind whenever I read about all those conspiracy theories regarding the exchange rate of the Baht to GBP/AUD/USD etc. no matter how much factual explanations are posted. And I can understand that this kind of content is written by posters who miss the old days where their home currency got them plenty of Baht and now they have to tighten their belts. It's not pleasant.

 

Thailands exports and tourism have grown heavily while western countries obviously can't do the same at this rate. Money goes into Thailand, Baht gets bought with foreign currency, Baht strengthens. Simple as that.

[orang37]

27 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

Thailands exports and tourism have grown heavily while western countries obviously can't do the same at this rate. Money goes into Thailand, Baht gets bought with foreign currency, Baht strengthens. Simple as that.

Did you happen to notice that the last few years saw Covid devastate Thai tourism, a major economic input/factor ? That many businesses shut down, and many are not reopened.

 

Proof tourism/exports have grown heavily ?

[metisdead]

Some posts and replies that were of an off topic nature have been removed.

[chaila]

5 minutes ago, orang37 said:

Did you happen to notice that the last few years saw Covid devastate Thai tourism, a major economic input/factor ? That many businesses shut down, and many are not reopened.

 

Proof tourism/exports have grown heavily ?

Dear mr.orange37 , it is as simple as that !!!! When Thailand had 39 milj.tourists my euro was more than 40. I came to Thailand in 2004 and until 2014 my euro was never i repeat, never under 40. But in 2014 came his holiness prayut and  my currency felt from more than 40 to now 2023 only 35.  Why is the Baht blacklisted for manipulation and why can prawit order the BOT to keep the Dollar at 35 I live here 18 years now and I am sure there is no corruption in this beautiful country , only misunderstandings 

 

[nigelforbes]

43 minutes ago, chaila said:

Dear mr.orange37 , it is as simple as that !!!! When Thailand had 39 milj.tourists my euro was more than 40. I came to Thailand in 2004 and until 2014 my euro was never i repeat, never under 40. But in 2014 came his holiness prayut and  my currency felt from more than 40 to now 2023 only 35.  Why is the Baht blacklisted for manipulation and why can prawit order the BOT to keep the Dollar at 35 I live here 18 years now and I am sure there is no corruption in this beautiful country , only misunderstandings 

 

I recommend you read at least the first post in the "Baht Thread" post to get a better understanding of THB and all it entails because despite your 18 years here, you're missing some important pieces of the Baht puzzle.

 

 

[eisfeld]

On 1/19/2023 at 4:13 AM, orang37 said:

Did you happen to notice that the last few years saw Covid devastate Thai tourism, a major economic input/factor ? That many businesses shut down, and many are not reopened.

 

Proof tourism/exports have grown heavily ?

Did you happen to notice that Thailand was not the only country affected by Covid?

 

I posted in a very similar recent thread a graph of the manufacturing (which mostly goes to exports) output of Thailand over the past 20 years:

 

[Skeptic7]

Teflon Thailand and it's Bulletproof Baht. For myriad reasons, the THB is an amazingly strong and resilient currency. Somehow, some way it just powers on. Not that an over-strong THB is necessarily a good thing, but it's certainly good for certain people.

 

Personally, I think THB strength is fueled by greed at the top and the near "slave-labor" wages paid to the vast majority of Thai workers. The ultra-low labor costs here do not reflect in the prices any longer, as almost everything here is equally priced, or even more expensive, than other countries which pay all their employees, at every level, considerably more. 

[Chivas]

On 1/17/2023 at 7:14 AM, soalbundy said:

Same with the Euro, it's gone up against the Dollar but down against the Baht. I read in Bloomberg that the Baht is the only Asian currency which wont have problems in 2023.

I utterly despair on here at times lol

 

(Euro/Dollar) x (Dollar/Baht)

 

ONLY the worlds reserve currency the USD has a direct exchange rate with every currency lol  !!

 

Everyone else its the sum of two pairings.

[Chivas]

On 1/17/2023 at 10:23 AM, paulikens said:

the baht is manipulated no doubt about it. it hasn't weaken in coups, lockdowns, etc, etc,  but the majority of currencies have. doesn't add up to me

Hard to believe it really is at times

Chap I refer you to what should be the previous post on the thread of mine

 

How is it remotely possible to not understand the most basic economics of currency exchange

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, Chivas said:

I utterly despair on here at times lol

 

(Euro/Dollar) x (Dollar/Baht)

 

ONLY the worlds reserve currency the USD has a direct exchange rate with every currency lol  !!

 

Everyone else its the sum of two pairings.

merely something I noticed, not worth getting depressed about an observation.

[mrwebb8825]

All I know is my wife and I send USD to our Thai banks when the the $ is strong and send THB to our US bank when the baht is strong.

We spend $ in the states and baht in Thailand and the cost of daily life isn't affected by either. Since it only cost $20 to send we do it when we can make 2-4x that.

Free money is always nice.