Russia could run out of money next year, says oligarch Oleg Deripaska

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

I disagree. It can happen if circumstances will make it unavoidable. Example a country that controls land crossing from Belarus to Kalingrad (Latvia? i dont remember which one of them) decide to organize blockade. There is a mutual fear nobody wants provoke each other, because nobody knows what will happen. If a russian rocket hit a city in Latvia for the reason above, will you bet your life that USA and EU will hit russia in return and risk everyone die, or they will roll their eyes and say something that blockade was an idiot move and let it go?

 

I cant say that something will never happen, things change, does not mean anything if something did not happen in past 30 years, 30 years sounds like a lot for a person, but for history it is just a blink of an eye.

It would depend on whether the Russian rocket deliberately hit Latvia or not.

[bradiston]

1 hour ago, ArturGorbachev said:

1. There were many ways to avoid this war, being a NATO member is one of them ( ?question mark see #2)

2. Being a NATO member does not make a country magically safe or immortal, while in theory it should and so far it worked, does not mean it will continue to do so in the future.

 

There are plenty of literature in fiction genre  where a protagonist somehow get a knowledge of his future misfortune and with his actions trying to avoid it he actually makes it happen. Take a Finland for example, want join NATO to be safe while they were already safe. What will happen if they start put missiles on their land, probably nothing, but in a tiny chance the conflict between NATO and Russia will start and i cant see it happens without nukes flying , Finland will be blown to pieces in 10 minutes after the beginning, was it their goal when they were decide to join, i doubt.

 

Your plot is way off. Finland joins NATO. Russia attacks Finland. NATO obliterates Russia. They're bound to do that. You really think Putin would risk attacking a NATO member? Most of Europe and the US respond in like manner? Putin is not into nuclear war. What would be the point? It's all bluff.

[ArturGorbachev]

19 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Your plot is way off. Finland joins NATO. Russia attacks Finland. NATO obliterates Russia. They're bound to do that. You really think Putin would risk attacking a NATO member? Most of Europe and the US respond in like manner? Putin is not into nuclear war. What would be the point? It's all bluff.

My plot is, Finland joins NATO, nothing happens for long time, then sudden conflict between NATO and Russia, Finland turned to glass as a warning -> piece talks, everyone is well except Finland. This is scenario where not being a NATO member is beneficial. Being in NATO is safe until there is no danger of nuclear war, if there is one to happen you are pretty much gone.

 

Alternative solution is everyone become glass, but least probable.

 

Putin is not into nuclear because there is no reason for it, yet. Only countries that have NW is somewhat safe, other countries regardless to what block they belong are not. The moment being a member of NATO becomes not beneficial for the US aka risk of using NW becomes inevitable followed by destruction of a country they will quit being a NATO partner the same moment. Sorry boys we tried to protect you, but we dont want to die, you are on your own.

 

[bradiston]

30 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

My plot is, Finland joins NATO, nothing happens for long time, then sudden conflict between NATO and Russia, Finland turned to glass as a warning -> piece talks, everyone is well except Finland. This is scenario where not being a NATO member is beneficial. Being in NATO is safe until there is no danger of nuclear war, if there is one to happen you are pretty much gone.

 

Alternative solution is everyone become glass, but least probable.

 

Putin is not into nuclear because there is no reason for it, yet. Only countries that have NW is somewhat safe, other countries regardless to what block they belong are not. The moment being a member of NATO becomes not beneficial for the US aka risk of using NW becomes inevitable followed by destruction of a country they will quit being a NATO partner the same moment. Sorry boys we tried to protect you, but we dont want to die, you are on your own.

 

I think the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will have a huge bearing on future relations between Russia and Europe, the US, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and the other western allies. I can't predict Putin's demise or downfall, but with him out of the picture, and his buddies Lavrov, Medvedev and a host of other hangers on, it might be that Russia returns to some sort of stable, rational democracy, or maybe I should say, advances to that. Russia has vast resources, but I don't see anyone going to invade Russia to get them. That's why China will hold back. This war was about resources as much as anything - food, energy, mineral wealth. The territorial gains are so small for a country the size of Russia, occupying the Donbas was just leverage for the plan b of "making Russia great again", if you will. Well, it's looking like plan B has failed dismally. The toll in human life and destruction has been one of the greatest miscalculations in history, IMHO.

[ArturGorbachev]

3 hours ago, bradiston said:

I think the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will have a huge bearing on future relations between Russia and Europe, the US, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and the other western allies. I can't predict Putin's demise or downfall, but with him out of the picture, and his buddies Lavrov, Medvedev and a host of other hangers on, it might be that Russia returns to some sort of stable, rational democracy, or maybe I should say, advances to that. Russia has vast resources, but I don't see anyone going to invade Russia to get them. That's why China will hold back. This war was about resources as much as anything - food, energy, mineral wealth. The territorial gains are so small for a country the size of Russia, occupying the Donbas was just leverage for the plan b of "making Russia great again", if you will. Well, it's looking like plan B has failed dismally. The toll in human life and destruction has been one of the greatest miscalculations in history, IMHO.

I am not sure what do you mean under " Russia returns to some sort of stable, rational democracy" if you mean the time period 1991-2000, then it was period of absolute poverty, salary and pension delay of up to 9 months was normal, schools without heating was normal, diet consisting of dried noodle and american chicken legs called bush chicken legs was normal, parents working 4 jobs just to put food on table was normal, gangs and drugs everywhere, i am sorry I dont want to return back to this "democracy", and yes, this was the period west loved Russia the most, the generation that lived this time is still relatively young and remembers "the democracy" quite well.

 

Africa also has vast resources with "democracies" and nobody is invading them and look how they live. Children working cocoa plantations for basically food with all the profit going to western corporations so you can have your cheap belgian chocolate. They did not invade them as in military sense, but exploit them to the bone. Replace these people you mentioned with people you want and Russia will become Africa 2.0, not Europe 2.0 as some implying.

 

This war is about many things but certainly not about resources, there are so many resources in Russia there are not enough people to exploit them and wont be enough in any foreseen future, and lunatics writing Putin invaded because he wanted some lithium deposits or some coal or whatever, it is just what they are -  lunatics.

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, ArturGorbachev said:

My plot is, Finland joins NATO, nothing happens for long time, then sudden conflict between NATO and Russia, Finland turned to glass as a warning -> piece talks, everyone is well except Finland. This is scenario where not being a NATO member is beneficial. Being in NATO is safe until there is no danger of nuclear war, if there is one to happen you are pretty much gone.

 

Alternative solution is everyone become glass, but least probable.

 

Putin is not into nuclear because there is no reason for it, yet. Only countries that have NW is somewhat safe, other countries regardless to what block they belong are not. The moment being a member of NATO becomes not beneficial for the US aka risk of using NW becomes inevitable followed by destruction of a country they will quit being a NATO partner the same moment. Sorry boys we tried to protect you, but we dont want to die, you are on your own.

 

It's not really as convincing as you think when someone offers future scenarios as evidence to support their case. Unless of course you have a time machine or a fully functional crystal ball. 

[ArturGorbachev]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's not really as convincing as you think when someone offers future scenarios as evidence to support their case. Unless of course you have a time machine or a fully functional crystal ball. 

If the case means joining NATO grants some kind of immortality or unlimited exit card "Cant touch me I am in NATO and I can do anything i want", i dont think so, it works until the moment it does not, like big fat missile flying in someones direction, there is always a possibility, not like i consider it very big, but i can see it can happen at certain moment to prove a point or like last warning, before lights out.

[bradiston]

48 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

I am not sure what do you mean under " Russia returns to some sort of stable, rational democracy" if you mean the time period 1991-2000, then it was period of absolute poverty, salary and pension delay of up to 9 months was normal, schools without heating was normal, diet consisting of dried noodle and american chicken legs called bush chicken legs was normal, parents working 4 jobs just to put food on table was normal, gangs and drugs everywhere, i am sorry I dont want to return back to this "democracy", and yes, this was the period west loved Russia the most, the generation that lived this time is still relatively young and remembers "the democracy" quite well.

 

Africa also has vast resources with "democracies" and nobody is invading them and look how they live. Children working cocoa plantations for basically food with all the profit going to western corporations so you can have your cheap belgian chocolate. They did not invade them as in military sense, but exploit them to the bone. Replace these people you mentioned with people you want and Russia will become Africa 2.0, not Europe 2.0 as some implying.

 

This war is about many things but certainly not about resources, there are so many resources in Russia there are not enough people to exploit them and wont be enough in any foreseen future, and lunatics writing Putin invaded because he wanted some lithium deposits or some coal or whatever, it is just what they are -  lunatics.

I also suggested that Russia might advance to, rather than return to, some sort of stable democracy. I remember Russia as an invader of Hungary and Czechoslovakia, but you may be too young for that. And brutal suppression of free speech, freedom in fact of more or less any kind, behind the Iron Curtain. Can you really speak out in support of the kind of communist totalitarianism that we witnessed in the Soviet era? Stalinism? Mass murder and incarceration of political opponents in the gulags? Deportations and internal exile? Yeah, after that, anything looked preferable.

 

I don't get the comparison with Africa. Apart from both being rich in resources, and utterly corrupt, but generally poverty struck as far as the people are concerned, maybe you have a point. But Russia is not an ex colonial country, is it? It's always been master of it's fate. Yet compare it to China and what do you see? Both communist countries, but couldn't be further apart in terms of progress. All Russia has to show for its massive resources is unbelievable corruption with Putin at the head of the pyramid and all his oligarchs sucking on the tit of the collapsed Soviet Union. At least Xi and his predecessors pulled off a miracle transformation. 40 years, and they not only caught up with the west but went flying past them. They've pulled a huge majority out of poverty. Compare to India, similar population. 30% living below the poverty level, still? But Russia? Where are the high speed trains? The mind boggling infrastructure, airports, roads, bridges, ports? Nah. Russia's had all the same opportunities, and the resources at hand, to match any of that. And have they?

 

Your last paragraph just doesn't make any sense. Who said anything about Putin wanting resources? He thought he could control Europe and bring it to its knees with oil, gas, wheat and fertiliser embargoes. But that hasn't worked. The only beneficiaries have been India and China, whose friendship was bought with cheap oil. China no doubt has its eye on Siberia. And why not? What's Russia going to do with all that mineral wealth?

 

He's a danger to himself and all around him. Increasingly isolated, paranoid to the point of not daring to visit his convict army. Bah. A pointless waste of space.

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

If the case means joining NATO grants some kind of immortality or unlimited exit card "Cant touch me I am in NATO and I can do anything i want", i dont think so, it works until the moment it does not, like big fat missile flying in someones direction, there is always a possibility, not like i consider it very big, but i can see it can happen at certain moment to prove a point or like last warning, before lights out.

'If the case means joining NATO grants some kind of immortality or unlimited exit card "Cant touch me I am in NATO and I can do anything i want", i dont think so,'

Who has made such a ridiculous claiim? But if any country in Europe comes closest to fitting that bill, it's russia with troops stationed not only fighting in Ukraine, but stationed in Georgia and Moldova against the will of those countries' governments.

And then there's Putin's speech in which he spoke of restoring the Empire of Peter the Great.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, bradiston said:

I also suggested that Russia might advance to, rather than return to, some sort of stable democracy. I remember Russia as an invader of Hungary and Czechoslovakia, but you may be too young for that. And brutal suppression of free speech, freedom in fact of more or less any kind, behind the Iron Curtain. Can you really speak out in support of the kind of communist totalitarianism that we witnessed in the Soviet era? Stalinism? Mass murder and incarceration of political opponents in the gulags? Deportations and internal exile? Yeah, after that, anything looked preferable.

 

I don't get the comparison with Africa. Apart from both being rich in resources, and utterly corrupt, but generally poverty struck as far as the people are concerned, maybe you have a point. But Russia is not an ex colonial country, is it? It's always been master of it's fate. Yet compare it to China and what do you see? Both communist countries, but couldn't be further apart in terms of progress. All Russia has to show for its massive resources is unbelievable corruption with Putin at the head of the pyramid and all his oligarchs sucking on the tit of the collapsed Soviet Union. At least Xi and his predecessors pulled off a miracle transformation. 40 years, and they not only caught up with the west but went flying past them. They've pulled a huge majority out of poverty. Compare to India, similar population. 30% living below the poverty level, still? But Russia? Where are the high speed trains? The mind boggling infrastructure, airports, roads, bridges, ports? Nah. Russia's had all the same opportunities, and the resources at hand, to match any of that. And have they?

 

Your last paragraph just doesn't make any sense. Who said anything about Putin wanting resources? He thought he could control Europe and bring it to its knees with oil, gas, wheat and fertiliser embargoes. But that hasn't worked. The only beneficiaries have been India and China, whose friendship was bought with cheap oil. China no doubt has its eye on Siberia. And why not? What's Russia going to do with all that mineral wealth?

 

He's a danger to himself and all around him. Increasingly isolated, paranoid to the point of not daring to visit his convict army. Bah. A pointless waste of space.

Well, I don't think Russia counts as a Communist country. The communist party runs a distant second to the ruling party there. And the ideology is, rather, fascistic based on a doctrine called Eurasianism and on a perverted version of Christian orthodoxy which extols warfare, and on mineral wealth and industry being treated as fiefdoms for the favored few.

[ArturGorbachev]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

'If the case means joining NATO grants some kind of immortality or unlimited exit card "Cant touch me I am in NATO and I can do anything i want", i dont think so,'

Who has made such a ridiculous claiim? But if any country in Europe comes closest to fitting that bill, it's russia with troops stationed not only fighting in Ukraine, but stationed in Georgia and Moldova against the will of those countries' governments.

And then there's Putin's speech in which he spoke of restoring the Empire of Peter the Great.

"Cant touch me I am in NATO" is being fully exploited by Poland, Estonia, Latvia. Saying politely their governments act in very provocative manner.

As for the rest I will have to go deep into WHATABOUT territory (US terminology for do how we say, not how we do) aka historical examples (everyones else terminology), but dont want to.

[bradiston]

20 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

If the case means joining NATO grants some kind of immortality or unlimited exit card "Cant touch me I am in NATO and I can do anything i want", i dont think so, it works until the moment it does not, like big fat missile flying in someones direction, there is always a possibility, not like i consider it very big, but i can see it can happen at certain moment to prove a point or like last warning, before lights out.

Kremlin propaganda. NATO on our doorstep is an existential threat to our existence! Estonia and Latvia have been on Russia's doorstep for the last 19 years. And Türkiye is only a boat ride away across the Black Sea.

[ArturGorbachev]

5 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Kremlin propaganda. NATO on our doorstep is an existential threat to our existence! Estonia and Latvia have been on Russia's doorstep for the last 19 years. And Türkiye is only a boat ride away across the Black Sea.

Estonia and Latvia is tiny countries, without human and natural resources. You need to have 50 counties like that to balance one Ukraine. Same as joining Finland and Sweden, does not really change anything. Defacto they already were in NATO, now it will be deure, therefore mild to none reaction from Kremlin, with turkey it is opposite.

[bradiston]

5 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

"Cant touch me I am in NATO" is being fully exploited by Poland, Estonia, Latvia. Saying politely their governments act in very provocative manner.

As for the rest I will have to go deep into WHATABOUT territory (US terminology for do how we say, not how we do) aka historical examples (everyones else terminology), but dont want to.

Hmmm. Seem to remember Russia invaded Poland in an unholy non aggression pact with nazi Germany. That lasted until Hitler had the bright idea of invading Russia as well. So what do those post soviet occupied countries owe to Russia? Absolutely SFA. It could well be payback time.

[ArturGorbachev]

1 minute ago, bradiston said:

Hmmm. Seem to remember Russia invaded Poland in an unholy non aggression pact with nazi Germany. That lasted until Hitler had the bright idea of invading Russia as well. So what do those post soviet occupied countries owe to Russia? Absolutely SFA. It could well be payback time.

Is it time to play Whatabout card?

[bradiston]

5 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

Estonia and Latvia is tiny countries, without human and natural resources. You need to have 50 counties like that to balance one Ukraine. Same as joining Finland and Sweden, does not really change anything. Defacto they already were in NATO, now it will be deure, therefore mild to none reaction from Kremlin.

So you're saying NATO played no part in Putin's decision to invade Ukraine? So why did he then? And please, not the old denazification of fascist illegal Kiev government and rescuing our oppressed Russian brothers in Donbas garbage.

[bradiston]

3 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

Is it time to play Whatabout card?

Sure, go ahead. But we're talking Russia here, and Europe. Not the US or colonial Africa. And most of your arguments have been what ifs. Pointless.

[ArturGorbachev]

5 minutes ago, bradiston said:

So you're saying NATO played no part in Putin's decision to invade Ukraine? So why did he then? And please, not the old denazification of fascist illegal Kiev government and rescuing our oppressed Russian brothers in Donbas garbage.

I said exactly opposite,  Ukraine membership  in NATO is 50x more dangerous than say Finland or Estonia.

[ArturGorbachev]

16 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Sure, go ahead. But we're talking Russia here, and Europe. Not the US or colonial Africa. And most of your arguments have been what ifs. Pointless.

It was rhetorical question in sarcastic manner, because well USSR attack Poland 1st and because of this etc, classical whatabout.

 

1. I dont know this period well, never had enough interest in WW2

2. The western and russian interpretation of what happened in 1939 is different. Everyone is blaming each other.

3. While Hitler attacked Poland 1st in 1939, England and France did not anything to help while they had mutual defense pact. Logically Poland should have problems with all these counties, but somehow it is only USSR (30% of it was Ukranian btw) fault.

[candide]

Running out of money, and maybe also out of people...

Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse

A demographic tragedy is unfolding in Russia. Over the past three years the country has lost around 2m more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus. The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti. The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it had been in the months of Hitler’s occupation. And because so many men of fighting age are dead or in exile, women outnumber men by at least 10m.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse

[nglodnig]

On 3/3/2023 at 10:20 AM, Foghorn said:

That’s what the west would like , the only country that stands up to the NWO , if NATO stood by the agreement not to expand to the Russian borders to incite a war there wouldn’t be a problem

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-64848508

 

Reminds me of the days when Comical Ali was explaining how Iraq was winning the war as US troops stormed into Baghdad.  I wonder what happend to him? Living in the UAE apparently now.

 

 

[bradiston]

4 hours ago, ArturGorbachev said:

I said exactly opposite,  Ukraine membership  in NATO is 50x more dangerous than say Finland or Estonia.

But that's what's going to happen now, isn't it? Yes, then NATO can invade Russia. As if!

[ArturGorbachev]

I dont want speculate what will happen

[Woof999]

19 hours ago, ArturGorbachev said:

Poland, Estonia, Latvia. Saying politely their governments act in very provocative manner.

I keep hearing words similar to this from Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev. Accusatory remarks about "unfriendly nations" and "provocative behaviour" from the mouths of those that ordered an invasion of their neighbour. I'd put an invasion at the top of the unfriendly and provocative list.

[ArturGorbachev]

33 minutes ago, Woof999 said:

I keep hearing words similar to this from Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev. Accusatory remarks about "unfriendly nations" and "provocative behaviour" from the mouths of those that ordered an invasion of their neighbour. I'd put an invasion at the top of the unfriendly and provocative list.

But they are unfriendly, they are not trying to hide that, always were, invasion just gave them good base to voice and act on their unfriendless in reasonable manner. Who do you think write on reddit and twitter using broken english about bad stalin, GULAG, USSR iron curtain, how they hate russians, etc, mostly people from these countries.

[Bkk Brian]

47 minutes ago, Woof999 said:

I keep hearing words similar to this from Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev. Accusatory remarks about "unfriendly nations" and "provocative behaviour" from the mouths of those that ordered an invasion of their neighbour. I'd put an invasion at the top of the unfriendly and provocative list.

I'd put an invasion at the top of the unfriendly and provocative list.

 

There are those that want to deflect from this fact, also known as Putin apologists

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

But they are unfriendly, they are not trying to hide that, always were, invasion just gave them good base to voice and act on their unfriendless in reasonable manner. Who do you think write on reddit and twitter using broken english about bad stalin, GULAG, USSR iron curtain, how they hate russians, etc, mostly people from these countries.

You don't think this has anything to do with the fact that Russia was attacking its neighbors like Georgia and Moldova?

[Woof999]

20 minutes ago, ArturGorbachev said:

Who do you think write on reddit and twitter using broken english about bad stalin, GULAG, USSR iron curtain, how they hate russians, etc, mostly people from these countries.

If I was a head of state I wouldn't be using Twitter, Reddit or anything similar as the basis of my foreign diplomacy stance.

[ArturGorbachev]

58 minutes ago, Woof999 said:

If I was a head of state I wouldn't be using Twitter, Reddit or anything similar as the basis of my foreign diplomacy stance.

Heads of the state use TV, regular citizens use Reddit, the words they say are the same. It is not like conspiracy theory here, they are really proud of their position. Not sure whats your point.

 

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

You don't think this has anything to do with the fact that Russia was attacking its neighbors like Georgia and Moldova?

Of course not. If anyone were to judge and build their political position towards a country by amount of military conflicts that country was involved, the #1 most hated pedestal certainly wont belong to Russia.

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, ArturGorbachev said:

Heads of the state use TV, regular citizens use Reddit, the words they say are the same. It is not like conspiracy theory here, they are really proud of their position. Not sure whats your point.

 

Of course not. If anyone were to judge and build their political position towards a country by amount of military conflicts that country was involved, the #1 most hated pedestal certainly wont belong to Russia.

 

 

But those other conflicts weren't about absorbing your neighbors. Not about enlarging your nation through conquest.