When can we blame climate change? The tricky science of attribution

[Social Media]

Extreme weather events are increasing in many parts of the world, but can we always blame their mounting severity on climate change? Join us for a live YouTube debate, and ask your questions!

 

In the aftermath of a heatwave, flood or drought, public interest is often intense, but can scientists really pinpoint whether a storm was made worse by climate change, and how can the science of extreme weather event attribution help them to do so?

At 2pm (CET) on 23 March our panel of experts will discuss the role that extreme weather attribution plays in educating the public about the link between climate change and today's weather.

[BritManToo]

Disagree, 

Extreme events same as always, but more phone cameras to record the event, which is then widely reported. 

[Yellowtail]

You've been blaming it for as long as I can remember. 

[KayDeeDee]

Climate Change is Only about  Money , Control  and Power

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, KayDeeDee said:

Climate Change is Only about  Money , Control  and Power

A real shame that nobody can explain how that works.

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2 hours ago, KayDeeDee said:

Climate Change is Only about  Money , Control  and Power

Let's all be grateful that the fossil fuel industries have taken it upon themselves without regard to Money, Control and Power to oppose the machinations of the Green Schemers.. 

[thaibeachlovers]

As usual, people cause the problem and then blame it on something else. 

Stop building on flood plains, and in forests, and stop cutting down all the trees that stop hillsides falling down if want to stop some problems.

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5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As usual, people cause the problem and then blame it on something else. 

Stop building on flood plains, and in forests, and stop cutting down all the trees that stop hillsides falling down if want to stop some problems.

You forgot "stop burning fossil fuels".

[kwilco]

On 3/23/2023 at 1:35 PM, BritManToo said:

Disagree, 

Extreme events same as always, but more phone cameras to record the event, which is then widely reported. 

Not true - the frequency of extreme events is perfectly proven, itis part of MMCC. However attributing and indicidual event is not relevent - in fact it is only argued by denir=ers who cite that "it has happened before" - the frequency is not done just on current reporting it is done on an analysis for records over teyears....for instance researching the events stored in layers of ice on the poles which work as perfect records for weather, climate and other events.

[kwilco]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:04 PM, KayDeeDee said:

Climate Change is Only about  Money , Control  and Power

How do you expalin tht - ae you saying it is caused by those facotors or those are the power bases refusing to act on it?

[BritManToo]

27 minutes ago, kwilco said:

How do you expalin tht - ae you saying it is caused by those facotors or those are the power bases refusing to act on it?

How are you so sure that climate change is undesirable, or even possible to change?

My opinion is that climate change is just something that happens and we should learn to live with. Seems pointless to destroy our civilisation while control of India, China and Africa is out of our hands.

 

But as you're a believer, do you mind telling us how you have changed your life to follow your beliefs? I'm 80% solar and I don't even care, so you'd think those that do care would be making some pretty extreme personal sacrifices ..........

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

How are you so sure that climate change is undesirable, or even possible to change?

My opinion is that climate change is just something that happens and we should learn to live with.

Seems pointless to destroy our civilisation while control of India, China and Africa is out of our hands.

Oh, just the opinion of the overwhelming majority of scientists with relevant qualifications. Other than that, nothing really. 

[BritManToo]

6 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Oh, just the opinion of the overwhelming majority of scientists with relevant qualifications. Other than that, nothing really. 

No overwhelming majority of scientists.

Just some paid globalist shills forwarding their controlling government agenda.

 

But still, I must be ranked among the top alarmists activists as I've got solar power.

An I on't use air-con, just fans.

How about you Ozzy? what have you done for your cause?

Turned your air-con off?, stopped driving a car? stopped using grid power?

Moved house to be above the rising sea level?

 

Your leaders buy beachfront property, drive hummers, fly around the world.

You (and your leaders actions) hardly give us deniers much reason to believe.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

No overwhelming majority of scientists.

Just some paid globalist shills forwarding their controlling government agenda.

 

But still, I must be ranked among the top alarmists activists as I've got solar power.

How about you Ozzy? what have you done for your cause?

I voted for the parties which support action against climate change. Your token effort is appreciated. Since you don't believe climate change is a problem worth acting on I guess we have to assume the reason you went with solar power is only about self interest? 

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I voted for the parties which support action against climate change. Your token effort is appreciated. Since you don't believe climate change is a problem worth acting on I guess we have to assume the reason you went with solar power is only about self interest? 

I'm prepping for the approaching Zombie Apocalypse!

Climate change will all be forgotten after you've all been eaten.

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11 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

No overwhelming majority of scientists.

Just some paid globalist shills forwarding their controlling government agenda.

 

 

Stop making falsehoods. Not only do you offer no evidence, but you show no interest at looking at evidence to the contrary even when it's handed to you on a plate, so to speak. All you've got to offer on this topic  is willful ignorance.

[kwilco]

16 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

How are you so sure that climate change is undesirable, or even possible to change?

It's the science - compared to that, your opinion is worthless - it isn't even an opinion, it is a demonstration of how little you understand about the topic.

[kwilco]

14 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

No overwhelming majority of scientists.

Yes it is  97% - where have you been?

"Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change. Most of the leading science organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including international and U.S. science academies, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a whole host of reputable scientific bodies around the world. A list of these organizations is provided here."

https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/#:~:text=Yes%2C the vast majority of,global warming and climate change.

 

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8 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Yes it is  97% - where have you been?

"Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change. Most of the leading science organizations around the world have issued public statements expressing this, including international and U.S. science academies, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a whole host of reputable scientific bodies around the world. A list of these organizations is provided here."

https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/#:~:text=Yes%2C the vast majority of,global warming and climate change.

 

Even 84% of economics geologists, the people whose jobs depending on exploiting mineral resources,agree that human caused climate change is a real thing

"The subdiscipline with the lowest level of agreement on our primary question about attribution of global warming was 'Economic Geology', where 84.1% of respondents replied 'Human Activity' (n = 127), 12.6% answered 'Natural Patterns' (n = 19), and 3.3% answered 'No Warming' (n = 5). "

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774

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36 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

But still, I must be ranked among the top alarmists activists as I've got solar power.

An I on't use air-con, just fans.

How about you Ozzy? what have you done for your cause?

Turned your air-con off?, stopped driving a car? stopped using grid power?

Moved house to be above the rising sea level?

 

Your leaders buy beachfront property, drive hummers, fly around the world.

You (and your leaders actions) hardly give us deniers much reason to believe.

It's virtually always the case that when someone who has got no fact to support their arguments, instead they make it personal.

[Chicksaw]

Climate denial in many cases seems to be a public pose. See, I am a free thinker, not part of the herd, smarter than you.

 

Mostly harmless. The press gives them inches because crazy sells. But governments of most countries that are the biggest polluters are solidly in favor of mitigation. So that's good.

[ozimoron]

Just now, Chicksaw said:

Climate denial in many cases seems to be a public pose. See, I am a free thinker, not part of the herd, smarter than you.

 

Mostly harmless. The press gives them inches because crazy sells. But governments of most countries that are the biggest polluters are solidly in favor of mitigation. So that's good.

Does free thinking mean free of science and evidence now?

[kwilco]

2 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Does free thinking mean free of science and evidence now?

thats what appears to be the case.

[kwilco]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Even 84% of economics geologists, the people whose jobs depending on exploiting mineral resources,agree that human caused climate change is a real thing

"The subdiscipline with the lowest level of agreement on our primary question about attribution of global warming was 'Economic Geology', where 84.1% of respondents replied 'Human Activity' (n = 127), 12.6% answered 'Natural Patterns' (n = 19), and 3.3% answered 'No Warming' (n = 5). "

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774

Even Exxon Mobil knew about and accurately predicted climate change back in the 1970s

The science is unavoidable – denial is the only option left

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64241994

 

 

[kwilco]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

No overwhelming majority of scientists.

Just some paid globalist shills forwarding their controlling government agenda.

 

But still, I must be ranked among the top alarmists activists as I've got solar power.

An I on't use air-con, just fans.

How about you Ozzy? what have you done for your cause?

Turned your air-con off?, stopped driving a car? stopped using grid power?

Moved house to be above the rising sea level?

 

Your leaders buy beachfront property, drive hummers, fly around the world.

You (and your leaders actions) hardly give us deniers much reason to believe.

You realise that isn't a counter-argument? (i expect not), it just supports the concept of MMCC

[kwilco]

On 3/23/2023 at 1:35 PM, BritManToo said:

Disagree, 

Extreme events same as always, but more phone cameras to record the event, which is then widely reported. 

these are not the records used to establish this - they use evidence going back 100s of thousands of years- I'm surprised at how little you understand.

[kwilco]

Sea level rises and property

 

Some misled people have cited a perception that seaside properties are still being developed and selling without any regard to rising sea levels – this is not true and warnings have been issued – in the UK alone it has been pointed out that 200,000 homes in the UK are at risk due to rises in sea levels in the next 30 years.

Estate agents and vendors are either unaware of the risk or fail to point it out. Some of the areas most at risk include North Somerset, Sedgemoor, Wyre, and Swale.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/15/sea-level-rise-in-england-will-force-200000-to-abandon-homes-data-shows

 

“head of the Environment Agency, Sir James Bevan, that many homes would be impossible or uneconomic to save, and whole communities would have to move inland,“

 

[Published by University of East Anglia, published in the peer-review journal Oceans and Coastal Management.]

 

In Queensland where floodable areas  are clearly mapped and available to the public real estate prices have taken sea levels into account for at least 3 decades.

 

This paper in the US examines prices and the public’s reluctance to heed warnings of SLR to the established rises. - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10669-022-09842-6

 

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On 3/23/2023 at 8:35 PM, BritManToo said:

Disagree, 

Extreme events same as always, but more phone cameras to record the event, which is then widely reported. 

You mean before mobile phones, droughts, hurricanes, and floods passed unnoticed by the scientific community?

[KayDeeDee]

Boy ,  when ever you mention Climate Change  the Climate Nuts / Cult fanatic's come out of the 

 wood work . And Nothing is ever said about China or India !! 

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50 minutes ago, KayDeeDee said:

Boy ,  when ever you mention Climate Change  the Climate Nuts / Cult fanatic's come out of the 

 wood work . And Nothing is ever said about China or India !! 

Well I would agree that Climate Change does bring all kind of fanatics out of the woodwork. Welcome to the forum.