UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, TKDfella said:

Well, the US certainly has gone down this week against the GBP but that could be due to a non-UK reason.

The UK economy suffers long term problems of low productivity, low investment and low growth, tariffs and bureaucracy between the UK and it’s most important trading partners are recent additions.

Short term fluctuations might attract attention but it’s the long term trend that matters.

 

[youreavinalaff]

29 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Short term fluctuations might attract attention but it’s the long term trend that matters.

Finally you talk sense.

 

So, in the long term there is no knowing Brexit will be/ is/ gas been a disaster for UK.

 

Thanks so much for finally realizing Brexit cannot, as has been by you and many others on here, deemed a disaster 

[nigelforbes]

*Deleted post removed*

 

Not me guv, I never touched 'em, 'aven't even seen 'em, I 'ave an alibi.

 

Oh wait, must 'ave slipped down the back of the couch.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR

[youreavinalaff]

7 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Not me guv, I never touched 'em, 'aven't even seen 'em, I 'ave an alibi.

 

Oh wait, must 'ave slipped down the back of the couch.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR

That is a link to the prediction. Not a link to how they came up with the figures.

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, youreavinalaff said:

That is a link to the prediction. Not a link to how they came up with the figures.

Then the answer must be no!

[youreavinalaff]

5 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Then the answer must be no!

Thanks.

 

So why accept their prediction but not what another poster saw on TV? Double standards.

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Thanks.

 

So why accept their prediction but not what another poster saw on TV? Double standards.

Oh please! I want to know who said what etc (if that's OK with you), anyone can come on here and say this and that or god forbid, even make things up! Show me the proof, tell me who the source is so I can decide for myself if the source is credible or not. I know the IMF is a credible source because I have read their material extensively over the years. But some poster saying something or other is not, it just doesn't resonate in the same way.

 

Don't bother me again.

[Chomper Higgot]

34 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Finally you talk sense.

 

So, in the long term there is no knowing Brexit will be/ is/ gas been a disaster for UK.

 

Thanks so much for finally realizing Brexit cannot, as has been by you and many others on here, deemed a disaster 

Except restricting an economy with tariffs and restrictions on trade with its main trading partner has predictable long term impacts.

[bignok]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Link? Name? Source?

https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498

 

Very bad forecast record.

"In that October, the IMF predicted an economic expansion for 2009 for both the US and Japan. Instead, the world’s largest economy contracted by nearly three percentage points and Japan’s economy shrank by 5.4 per cent, its worst annual performance since the second world war"

Edited April 13, 2023 by bignok

[ozimoron]

16 minutes ago, bignok said:

https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498

 

Very bad forecast record.

"In that October, the IMF predicted an economic expansion for 2009 for both the US and Japan. Instead, the world’s largest economy contracted by nearly three percentage points and Japan’s economy shrank by 5.4 per cent, its worst annual performance since the second world war"

1. Pay wall.

 

2, That was the GFC, what's known as a black swan event and not normally predictable.

 

tldr; Not a valid point.

 

 

[ozimoron]

Should I be worried by the IMF’s grim forecasts for the UK economy?

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/should-i-be-worried-by-the-imf-s-grim-forecasts-for-the-uk-economy-b2272897.html

[bignok]

https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer/unreliable-forecaster-the-imf-says-aussie-outlook-is-dismal/

 

IMF is known for being wrong.

[bignok]

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-imf-s-poor-forecasting-matters

 

 

[bignok]

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/imfs-economic-crystal-ball-is-cracked-2022-01-25/

 

Yet another website.

 

 

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

Finally you talk sense.

 

So, in the long term there is no knowing Brexit will be/ is/ gas been a disaster for UK.

 

Thanks so much for finally realizing Brexit cannot, as has been by you and many others on here, deemed a disaster 

What we can all agree with, I am sure, is that the economic impact of brexit at this point in time is negative for most and devastating for more than a few.

We can also all agree, I am sure, that there is currently no clear path to the sunny uplands.

Some remain positive that something good will emerge from the dung heap while the majority are not convinced.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by RuamRudy

[ozimoron]

5 minutes ago, bignok said:

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/imfs-economic-crystal-ball-is-cracked-2022-01-25/

 

Yet another website.

 

 

which is unrelated to the topic

[Scott]

Numerous off-topic, combative, irrelevant, baiting and bickering posts and replies removed.  Please stay on topic and keep it civil.

 

[RayC]

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

Finally you talk sense.

 

So, in the long term there is no knowing Brexit will be/ is/ gas been a disaster for UK.

 

Thanks so much for finally realizing Brexit cannot, as has been by you and many others on here, deemed a disaster 

Yet Brexiters will never tell us when the Brexit' benefits are expected to kick in and how long the payback period will be. It's all 'Manana'.

[candide]

22 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Should I be worried by the IMF’s grim forecasts for the UK economy?

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/should-i-be-worried-by-the-imf-s-grim-forecasts-for-the-uk-economy-b2272897.html

As pointed out in this article, the OECD come up with similar forecast.

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/march-2023/

[Credo]

1 minute ago, RayC said:

Yet Brexiters will never tell us when the Brexit' benefits are expected to kick in and how long the payback period will be. It's all 'Manana'.

Good point.  There never seems to be a benefit pointed out, but any problems are most certainly not a result of Brexit.  

[bignok]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

As pointed out in this article, the OECD come up with similar forecast.

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/march-2023/

Which is just a forecast. Known to be wrong. Forecasts are guesses.

 

 

 

 

[transam]

5 minutes ago, RayC said:

Yet Brexiters will never tell us when the Brexit' benefits are expected to kick in and how long the payback period will be. It's all 'Manana'.

Probably because us Brexiteers or anyone else doesn't know. But what we do know is that we have left the club, first stage completed.....????

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, bignok said:

Which is just a forecast. Known to be wrong. Forecasts are guesses.

 

 

 

 

So where are the facts? The only current tangibles are economic pain and burdensome bureaucracy.

[bignok]

Just now, RuamRudy said:

So where are the facts? The only current tangibles are economic pain and burdensome bureaucracy.

History is fact. Take the average 10 year growth rate and project forward. Buffet does that with shares.

[candide]

2 minutes ago, bignok said:

Which is just a forecast. Known to be wrong. Forecasts are guesses.

 

 

 

 

A forecast is not a guess, it is the most likely scenario considering what is known at the time it is made. It doesn't mean that it is exactly what will happen, it means other scenarii are less likely to occur.

[RayC]

3 minutes ago, transam said:

Probably because us Brexiteers or anyone else doesn't know. But what we do know is that we have left the club, first stage completed.....????

Which rather begs the question: Why leave if we don't know that the alternative is better?

[bignok]

1 minute ago, candide said:

A forecast is not a guess, it is the most likely scenario considering what is known at the time it is made. It doesn't mean that it is exactly what will happen, it means other scenarii are less likely to occur.

It's a guess based on certain assumptions, educated guess. That's all it is.

 

If a forecaster has a good record you might listen to them. If not you should'nt.

[transam]

Just now, RayC said:

Which rather begs the question: Why leave if we don't know that the alternative is better?

And be stuck in the hands of others, no, thank you........????

[bignok]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

A forecast is not a guess, it is the most likely scenario considering

How can it be most likely if forecasts are most often wrong?

 

It is their educated guess on what they think is most likely, not actual most likely. Just a educated guess based on spreadsheet forecasts. One forecast on top of other forecasts.

 

Nothing factual about forecasts.

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

History is fact. Take the average 10 year growth rate and project forward. Buffet does that with shares.

You literally just dismissed forecasts as little more than guesses.

Your optimism that something will spring from nothing will be cold comfort to people up and down the UK who are experiencing the negative effects of brexit.