Thai tourism surge: 25 million visitors forecasted, boosting economy

[newnative]

53 minutes ago, Cabradelmar said:

"projected" 25 million by years end... those are 2014 numbers... still a long way to go to 40 million (pre-covid, 2019). Counting all the Malaysian day-trippers is just stat-padding.

The 'day-trippers' were counted in 2019, too.

[klauskunkel]

10 hours ago, 2baht said:

Earlier today!

Thailand’s tourism confidence slides amidst global economy concerns

.................for heavens sake, make up you mind??? I'm almost tempted to use the dreaded confused emoji!

 

11 hours ago, webfact said:

This unprecedented surge in the number of tourists

This surge must have happened about 8 hours ago, because it didn't make the morning news.  

[mogandave]

I’m at the airport now. Parking lot was packed, as is check in.

[Goat]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The tourist areas may be busy but the rest of the country is not. 

Is that because many of the other areas citzens have left to work in the tourist areas, where you would expect to find tourists?

 

Well done Thailand. Their tourism rebound has outpaced nearly all other tourist places.

Proactive.

Very smart people these Thais.

 

Strange how so many on this forum get triggered by Thailands success. You would think they would be rooting for Thailand.

Like I do.

 

[RichardColeman]

I do not believe this in the slightest.

 

1. They have just admitted that the Chinese numbers will likely be 5 million and not 10 million.

 

2. The world is about to hit full recession and housing bubble crisis.

 

3. Airfares have basically doubled.

 

If I had to take a punt I'd say closer to 15 million at best, with a real slow down in the next few months. Certainly if the tourists use their money this year , next years tourists will be too skint to come. 

 

This said, they could be relying on 5 million migrant workers going in and out

 

[DULEROY]

Here is the latest report from the Ministry of Tourism MOT dated June 27 for the month of May 2023 The month of June is not yet calculated by the division it will be for next July 27

Nombre de touristes Mai 2023.pdf

[kinyara]

 

TAT's forecast range was 24 million to 30 million, no real surprise at figures within that range being mentioned, i.e. 25 million, when you have 6 months of actual arrivals data within that range to go on. 

 

I personally like to look at the monthly numbers compared against the same month in 2019 to see how well the tourism situation is going as it takes account of the seasonality. Yet to see a decline despite the fact Chinese tourism is only running at a paltry 25% of average numbers in 2019.

 

January : 58%

February : 59%

March : 64%

April : 68%

May : 74%

[DULEROY]

44 minutes ago, DULEROY said:

Here is the latest report from the Ministry of Tourism MOT dated June 27 for the month of May 2023 The month of June is not yet calculated by the division it will be for next July 27

Nombre de touristes Mai 2023.pdf 158.55 kB · 2 downloads

The total of tourist visitors entering from January 1 to the end of May 2023 and therefore 10,673,490

[kinyara]

10 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Is there any doubt as to why this year versus last year saw the supposed 539% increase in tourism from January to June.  Could it be because the country was technically closed during this period of time?  Hi-Season is now over and I would expect only half of the numbers seen so far to be seen in the 2nd half of the year.

 

Recessions are starting to heat up, companies are laying off staff in the US, savings people had are low or non existent as they pay the higher interest on there mortgages, and many other factors are keeping folks home.  Of course this is my view only, but the many folks I know that would come at the end of the year, are staying put in the US and trying to find secondary jobs over the holiday periods to help pay for things that had been on hold, like Student Loans that they have not had to pay for the past 2 years.  Those loans become due and payable starting in October.  

 

 

You're looking at it from a Western country tourism perspective and ignoring the reality of the weighting where Thailand draws its tourism from. For example as the numbers of US and UK visitors dropped in May as per usual in low season, tourist arrivals from the larger or near equal sized Asian markets of India, S.Korea, Singapore and Vietnam all increased. 

 

To suggest tourism will drop to 1 million a month in the second half of the year as you are, when Thailand got that number from only Malaysia, China, India, S.Korea, Vietnam & Singapore in May alone has no basis in reality.

[kinyara]

10 hours ago, pegman said:

The China #'s look nowhere near those pre-pandemic 

Correct, it is running at a mere 25% of 2019 monthly arrivals which is main reason why TAT estimated a range of 24-30 million this year as opposed to the 2019 peak of 39 million.

[kinyara]

9 hours ago, JoePai said:

Agree with you, they have no idea what is happening, quote :

 

The president of the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), Chamnan Srisawat, announced that the second quarter’s score was two points lower than the prior quarter at 72. This noticeably fell short of the identical period in 2019, which recorded 100, inferring weakened optimism. 

One news outlet is comparing 2023 to 2022, the other agency is comparing 2023 with 2019. The discrepancy between the articles is hardly difficult to understand.

[kinyara]

7 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

I thought it wouldn't be until tomorrow that a counterpoint emerged, but no it only took a few hours. Thailand never stops being ridiculous

Trying to draw comparisons between 2 outlets measuring this years numbers against 2 different timeframes and expecting the same result is ridiculous, nothing to do with Thailand.

[kinyara]

5 hours ago, Bundooman said:

I'm completely cr*p at math, but even I can see that 1.9m + 1.3m + 78K + 74K +73K does not equate to 12.46 million. It's a total of about 4million.

 

Where did the other 8 million come from?

 

You clearly can't see it, I think I'd start with a visit to Specsavers.  ???? 

[kinyara]

4 hours ago, Cabradelmar said:

"projected" 25 million by years end... those are 2014 numbers... still a long way to go to 40 million (pre-covid, 2019). Counting all the Malaysian day-trippers is just stat-padding.

Yes China running at a mere 25% of 2019 numbers is why TAT forecast a range of 24-30 million.

 

Where do you get the idea that Malaysian's are day-trippers ? Their average length of stay has always been around 4 days, some may be but that is clearly compensated by those staying a week or longer. 

[mrfill]

Slip of the pen for sure. They meant to say 25 BILLION.....

[Phil1964]

Air fares from Europe for anything resembling a convenient hassle free journey are now a £1,000 plus, (Thai, Eva, Emirates, Qatar, FinnAir). My Mrs is going to her family this month and Eva Air was £1,100 return when booked in April! Flights westwards to Mexico, Caribbean and USA are popping up in price brackets akin to 2018-19 at £350 to £500 return. Heading east is a non-option at present. It's cheaper to fly to many Latin American than SE Asian destinations in 2023 from London, (it's a long time since that has been the case).

Thailand is Asia's Spain /Portugal, 'so near and on the doorstep' hence the visitor numbers from India, China, Singapore etc, these days dwarfing the number of debt encumbered visitors from recession haunted western economies.

I guess not what the beer and bar girls want to hear or endure. 

 

Be interesting if political unrest erupts, then watch tourism die a death and the baht tank...

 

 

[mrfill]

28 minutes ago, Phil1964 said:

Air fares from Europe for anything resembling a convenient hassle free journey are now a £1,000 plus, (Thai, Eva, Emirates, Qatar, FinnAir). My Mrs is going to her family this month and Eva Air was £1,100 return when booked in April! Flights westwards to Mexico, Caribbean and USA are popping up in price brackets akin to 2018-19 at £350 to £500 return. Heading east is a non-option at present. It's cheaper to fly to many Latin American than SE Asian destinations in 2023 from London, (it's a long time since that has been the case).

Thailand is Asia's Spain /Portugal, 'so near and on the doorstep' hence the visitor numbers from India, China, Singapore etc, these days dwarfing the number of debt encumbered visitors from recession haunted western economies.

I guess not what the beer and bar girls want to hear or endure. 

 

Be interesting if political unrest erupts, then watch tourism die a death and the baht tank...

 

 

I just checked Skyscanner for a London-BKK flight in January. EvaAir direct flight - £697.41. Qatar (1.5hr transfer) - £704

[DULEROY]

Il y a 4 heures, kinyara a dit :

 

La fourchette de prévisions de TAT était de 24 à 30 millions, sans réelle surprise que des chiffres dans cette fourchette soient mentionnés, c'est-à-dire 25 millions, alors que vous avez 6 mois de données d'arrivées réelles dans cette fourchette pour continuer. 

 

Personnellement, j'aime regarder les chiffres mensuels par rapport au même mois en 2019 pour voir à quel point la situation du tourisme se porte bien car elle tient compte de la saisonnalité. Pourtant, voir une baisse malgré le fait que le tourisme chinois ne tourne qu'à un maigre 25% du nombre moyen en 2019.

 

Janvier : 58%

Février : 59%

Mars : 64%

Avril : 68%

Mai : 74%

Pour information ce n'est pas TAT en charge du rapport Cumulative Preliminary Report January - May 2023(P) -Cumulative Preliminary Report January - May

The Report of June 2023  is not Issued ( Next 23-27 July

 

It should therefore be noted that the cumulative income is distributed in this way
Thailaandais 42%
Foreigners 58%

 

2023(P) 

[geisha]

Anyway, it’s not quantity it’s quality. Quantity overruns the beaches , pollutes the water and creates traffic jams , buses full of group tourists that create chaos., which add to the air pollution, makes  huge queues everywhere , whether it be in Bangkoks beautiful temples or restaurants that can’t cope due to lack of staff. Also quantity  , not mentioning any nationalities, eat and drink at the 7/11s or dine with babushkas tasty meals which stink out the whole condo building ( sorry but true.)  At least western tourists are normally good spenders, usually have manners ( I’m not talking about the scruffy drunks) .  At least Malaysian and South Koreans have good manners and education, but Malaysians are mostly border tourists and S Koreans you don’t see that many. In my eyes Japanese are also very nice people. 
We all saw what happened to Spain, which was a beautiful country until the tour groups took over.

Better is Italy and France for beach holidays and wonderful sightseeing, great food too, their hotels being quite small and quite expensive in comparison. I think that probably their income from tourism is vastly superior to Thailands 30 or 40 million. Tourist numbers are just that, numbers. 

[kinyara]

1 hour ago, geisha said:

Anyway, it’s not quantity it’s quality. Quantity overruns the beaches , pollutes the water and creates traffic jams , buses full of group tourists that create chaos., which add to the air pollution, makes  huge queues everywhere , whether it be in Bangkoks beautiful temples or restaurants that can’t cope due to lack of staff. Also quantity  , not mentioning any nationalities, eat and drink at the 7/11s or dine with babushkas tasty meals which stink out the whole condo building ( sorry but true.)  At least western tourists are normally good spenders, usually have manners ( I’m not talking about the scruffy drunks) .  At least Malaysian and South Koreans have good manners and education, but Malaysians are mostly border tourists and S Koreans you don’t see that many. In my eyes Japanese are also very nice people. 
We all saw what happened to Spain, which was a beautiful country until the tour groups took over.

Better is Italy and France for beach holidays and wonderful sightseeing, great food too, their hotels being quite small and quite expensive in comparison. I think that probably their income from tourism is vastly superior to Thailands 30 or 40 million. Tourist numbers are just that, numbers. 

I've never come across any country with a heavy dependency on tourist income actively campaigning for lower tourist numbers or imposing a minimum financial spend on those entering,  higher tourist numbers = higher tourist income. Thailand is a mass tourist market because people like it, however if quality is defined as high spending Thailand must still attract them as there are 5 star options in all the main tourist areas. 

 

 

 

[Pink Mist]

Trolling meme removed 

[Phil1964]

9 hours ago, mrfill said:

I just checked Skyscanner for a London-BKK flight in January. EvaAir direct flight - £697.41. Qatar (1.5hr transfer) - £704

Eva flights to Thailand have been over £1,000 pretty much all through 2023. Ditto Thai Air.. 

Booked in early April my Mrs and her 10year old daughter on Eva Air return flights for a one month trip 17th July > 17th August, (which is before most English schools close for summer hols), cost £2,100 for 2 pax - 1 adult / 1 child.

To have travelled for Easter it was even worse. 

Maybe I'll book myself 2 weeks away from them, their constant arguing and the UK winter on the flights you mentioned. I'll have a look, book and not tell them where I'm going. ????

 

[mogandave]

12 hours ago, kinyara said:

I've never come across any country with a heavy dependency on tourist income actively campaigning for lower tourist numbers or imposing a minimum financial spend on those entering,  higher tourist numbers = higher tourist income. Thailand is a mass tourist market because people like it, however if quality is defined as high spending Thailand must still attract them as there are 5 star options in all the main tourist areas. 

 

 

 

But higher income does not always mean higher margin. 

[kinyara]

33 minutes ago, mogandave said:

But higher income does not always mean higher margin. 

Agreed, but the multiplier effect of all additional money in the economy is a hugely important economic driver, especially in the tourist industry which is supported by hundreds of thousands of small independent vendors who make just a few baht from every sale, as opposed to the sale of 1 luxury high margin item in a high end Bangkok shopping mall. I recognise there is a tax benefit to the latter which hopefully filters through, but that is also true with every tourist that arrives in one form or another in how they get here, where they stay and how they get around etc etc.

[mogandave]

3 hours ago, kinyara said:

Agreed, but the multiplier effect of all additional money in the economy is a hugely important economic driver, especially in the tourist industry which is supported by hundreds of thousands of small independent vendors who make just a few baht from every sale, as opposed to the sale of 1 luxury high margin item in a high end Bangkok shopping mall. I recognise there is a tax benefit to the latter which hopefully filters through, but that is also true with every tourist that arrives in one form or another in how they get here, where they stay and how they get around etc etc.

Very low-spending tourists can cost more than they benefit. 

 

Sure, a few baht here and there, but overall a loss. 

 

 

 

[geisha]

21 hours ago, kinyara said:

I've never come across any country with a heavy dependency on tourist income actively campaigning for lower tourist numbers or imposing a minimum financial spend on those entering,  higher tourist numbers = higher tourist income. Thailand is a mass tourist market because people like it, however if quality is defined as high spending Thailand must still attract them as there are 5 star options in all the main tourist areas. 

 

 

 

France , for example is the leader in tourist numbers ( around 66 million). The income per tourist is much higher . Thailand has 5 star hotels of course, but not that many. Most hotels in Thailand have hundreds of rooms, and are very cheap compared to Europe and US , or the Emirates. Have you actually seen the price of a room in Rome , Paris or Dubai ? Have a look. Or the Michelin starred restaurants? Thailand isn’t cheap because the airfare is expensive , the hotels and necessities of holidays are very cheap. The Chinese tour groups bring nothing , that’s well known.  Why ruin a country with hordes of Tourists when they are cheap ones, it’s just not feasible. 

[CartagenaWarlock]

On 7/2/2023 at 8:34 PM, ThailandRyan said:

Recessions are starting to heat up, companies are laying off staff in the US,

What recessions? US is doing fine. Some of my index funds have given more than 20% returns so far. 

[newnative]

9 hours ago, geisha said:

France , for example is the leader in tourist numbers ( around 66 million). The income per tourist is much higher . Thailand has 5 star hotels of course, but not that many. Most hotels in Thailand have hundreds of rooms, and are very cheap compared to Europe and US , or the Emirates. Have you actually seen the price of a room in Rome , Paris or Dubai ? Have a look. Or the Michelin starred restaurants? Thailand isn’t cheap because the airfare is expensive , the hotels and necessities of holidays are very cheap. The Chinese tour groups bring nothing , that’s well known.  Why ruin a country with hordes of Tourists when they are cheap ones, it’s just not feasible. 

      The answer to your question is in your post.   Why, as you ask, 'ruin a country with hordes of Tourists'?  Because Thailand needs large numbers of tourists of all types, not just those who stay at 5-star hotels.  As you say, most of Thailand's hotels are not 5-star.  These hotels rely on regular tourists, not the wealthy tourists staying at the priciest hotels.   Would you have all these establishments close shop and go out of business because they are catering to a tourist demographic you don't care for?  If it's ok for France to have 66 million tourists, why is is not ok for slightly smaller Thailand to have 40 million?   (I have a sneaking suspicion that not all those 66 million were millionaires.  Well, I know there were 2 less in 2019 when my partner and I visited.)

     The reality is that Thailand's tourist industry is massive and it is set up to handle large numbers of tourists, and Thailand needs large numbers of tourists of all economic strata to fill all those rooms--from cheap hostels for backpackers to the 5-stars, and everything in-between.   

     The reality is that every tourist who visits Thailand, whether budget or millionaire, is contributing to Thailand's economy.  What is not, in your words, 'feasible' is what we saw during the covid years, when Thailand was not getting the large numbers of tourists it needs to sustain the huge tourist industry that has been built here.

     

[wealthychef]

On 7/3/2023 at 8:25 AM, webfact said:

a phenomenal increase of 539% over the same period in the previous year.

Gosh, out of the blue, I mean, whatever could have happened to depress tourism last year?  It's a miracle! 

[Cabradelmar]

On 7/3/2023 at 7:49 PM, kinyara said:

Where do you get the idea that Malaysian's are day-trippers ? Their average length of stay has always been around 4 days, some may be but that is clearly compensated by those staying a week or longer. 

Not everyone from Malaysia... there are day trippers from every country with a land boarder crossing, and they (as is everyone else is) are counted as "tourist"... stat-padding.